According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2599 yuan/ton and then rose to 2598 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.03% during the period, a month on month decline of 2.35%, and a year-on-year decline of 0.67%. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. The utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is still at a high level, and the traditional downstream is gradually recovering. Although downstream external procurement has boosted the mainland market at the beginning of the week, the downstream maintains rational procurement as the main focus, and the overall mainland market is weak and volatile.

As of the close on February 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2505, opened at 2550 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2558 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2538 yuan/ton. It closed at 2547 yuan/ton in the closing session, an increase of 8 yuan or 0.32% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 441101 lots, the position is 784503 lots, and the daily increase is -2025.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply has basically returned to normal levels. The enthusiasm for coal procurement in the downstream market is currently poor, with only a small amount of essential transportation being maintained, and traders and coal plants temporarily suspending procurement. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: increasing demand for acetic acid; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: There is currently no equipment fluctuation for chloride, and there is little change in operation. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment is greater than the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of February 20th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 366.50-367.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 111.00 to 112.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, there will be a sustained demand for shipments from mainland factories, while foreign ships will be concentrated at ports. In addition, with sufficient domestic trade replenishment, it will be difficult to clear inventory. Traditional downstream and MTO demand are expected to resume work, and supply and demand are expected to improve. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21, the price of 0 # zinc was 23690 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the zinc price of 24062 yuan/ton on February 17, with a growth rate of 1.57%.

This week’s market analysis

This week, zinc prices have shown a slight upward trend. The slow recovery on the demand side is expected to continue, and the current price lacks sufficient momentum, resulting in a lag in the actual progress of resuming production after the holiday.

Fundamentals

This week, the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees has led to a decrease in zinc smelters’ purchases of zinc ore in February. Due to the high level of raw material inventory in zinc smelters, their demand for further procurement of zinc ore is not urgent. In this situation, zinc smelters have a strong desire to raise processing fees and hope to protect their profit margins by maintaining or increasing processing fees. The continuous increase in processing fees has put pressure on the supply side. On the one hand, the reduction of procurement by zinc smelters may lead to a relatively tight supply of zinc ore in the market, which in turn may have an impact on the production and supply of zinc; On the other hand, the presence of high price sentiment may also make smelters more cautious in raw material procurement, further limiting the supply of zinc.

Demand side

Although the operating load of galvanized and die cast zinc has significantly increased compared to the previous period, due to the slow resumption of production by downstream enterprises, domestic social inventory continues to increase, and the turning point for destocking is later than previously expected. Galvanized and die cast zinc, as the main consumption areas of zinc, should have driven an increase in demand for zinc due to the rebound in operating load, thereby reducing social inventory. However, the actual situation is that downstream enterprises have a slow pace of resuming production, which directly leads to a slower than expected recovery on the demand side. Therefore, although the operating load on the production side has increased, the demand side has not kept up in a timely manner, resulting in the accumulation of domestic social inventory.

comprehensive analysis

It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate within the range in the short term, with limited upward and downward space.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic formic acid saw a slight increase in mid February. As of February 17th, the average price of 85% formic acid in China was 2975 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

From the supply side perspective, mainstream formic acid enterprises are producing normally with little inventory pressure. Due to the long-term stable market situation, most manufacturers hold a high price mentality and are unwilling to easily lower prices.

On the demand side, as the fertilizer use period approaches, the enthusiasm for terminal pickup in Northeast and North China regions continues to increase. While the operating rate of compound fertilizer production enterprises is gradually increasing, the release of inventory is also accelerating. The demand for formic acid has also rebounded.

From the perspective of raw materials, the abundant supply of coal and natural gas resources and the loose supply of methanol raw materials have led to a steady increase in domestic methanol production, increasing supply pressure while downstream demand remains weak, resulting in significant accumulation of domestic social inventory. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand structure, domestic methanol maintains a weak and volatile trend.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the demand side is improving, and there is an upward trend in domestic formic acid. However, the raw material side is weakening, and the transmission of upward momentum is insufficient. The price of formic acid has slightly increased, and it is expected that the market will operate steadily in the future. Specific attention still needs to be paid to market trends and changes in supply and demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market fell weakly this week, with an average price of 8716 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8646 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.8% during the week.

News: Crude oil fluctuated and fell this week. On February 14th, the settlement price of international crude oil futures closed slightly lower. WTI March crude oil futures closed down 0.08 US dollars, a decrease of 0.11%, at 71.29 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for April closed down $0.16, or 0.21%, at $75.02 per barrel.

On the cost side: Pure benzene showed a strong trend this week, with good shipments from Shandong’s local refineries. Shandong Lihua Yi’s 200000 ton pure benzene plant began planned maintenance, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price increased by 100 to 7750 yuan/ton. Pure benzene prices rose, and the price difference between pure benzene and styrene further narrowed.

Supply and demand side: The inventory of styrene at the port is still high, and the growth rate of inventory this week has slowed down. The downstream 3S demand growth is limited, and EPS production is at a low level, waiting for further demand release.

Market forecast: Currently, the cost of styrene is high, profits are tight, and the supply and demand sides are weak. There is a possibility of high-level consolidation in the raw material side in the future. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in market costs and supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range this week (1.20-24), with prices first rising and then falling. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4946 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.41% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of this week, PVC continued its upward trend from last week, slightly rising, and some manufacturers continued to adjust their prices. The range is between 50-100 yuan/ton. However, after the middle of the week, due to limited positive news on fundamentals, crude oil prices fluctuated and fell, resulting in a weak performance in the futures market. PVC prices have fluctuated within the range, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market is linked downward, coupled with loose supply and demand performance, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, and it is difficult for dealers to improve their offers. Before the holiday, downstream demand gradually shrank, and downstream procurement was mainly based on spot prices. The enthusiasm for inquiry procurement was not high, and the market atmosphere was sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4900-5050 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since January, the market price of calcium carbide has remained stable, which has brought certain benefits to downstream PVC by stopping the decline and stabilizing. In addition, the residual temperature of downstream procurement before the holiday supported market demand, but the current peak of procurement is gradually coming to an end, and downstream consumers generally have a resistance to high priced goods, which to some extent suppresses the continued rise of PVC prices.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that as the holiday approaches, the trading volume in the PVC spot market is gradually weakening, and downstream companies are gradually suspending work and holidays. Demand is weakening, and market transactions are expected to decline. Most of the current rise is driven by the futures market and policies. Although traders are helping to speculate on the rise, the weak fundamentals of the spot market have led to a sustained upward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has risen this month and has been continuously increasing since the beginning of the month. On January 1st, the price was 7234.67 yuan/ton; On January 23rd, the price was 7543 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.26% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has increased today. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the Shandong region is actively stocking up, with a good mood for receiving goods on site and a high volume of transactions. In addition, due to the low inventory of most refineries in Shandong, local refineries have reported an increase in offers. The follow-up of buying in the East China region is still acceptable, and the market is mainly stable. Styrene futures rose, and the overnight rise of pure benzene boosted confidence in the pure benzene market. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is good.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has increased by 150 yuan/ton to 7500 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil futures: On January 22nd, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.44 per barrel, a decrease of $0.39 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.29 or 0.4%.

Pure benzene trading: On January 22nd, FOB Korea remained stable at $902/ton, CFR China rose by $3 to $917/ton, FOB Rotterdam rose by $2 to $891/ton, and FOB USG was 303 cents/gallon.

Comprehensive forecast: In the short term, the pure benzene market is expected to consolidate and operate within a certain range, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

The domestic phenol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. The major mainstream markets are running smoothly. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7827 yuan/ton on January 15th, and 7770 yuan/ton on January 22nd, with a weekly decline of 0.73%.

The market atmosphere is flat, with most trading quotes being suspended and not reported. The actual orders are stable, and the impact of imported cargo before the holiday is not expected to be significant. As the holiday approaches, logistics pressure increases, downstream terminal factories’ purchasing sentiment slows down, and some are delisted early. The overall trading atmosphere is flat. As of the 22nd, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 22nd/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7700./ -50

Shandong region/ 7780./ -20

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7780./ -20

South China region/ 7800./ -100

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, terminal enterprises have reduced their purchases and gradually withdrawn, while traders’ willingness to actively offer has weakened, and the market may weaken or tend to stabilize.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda was relatively strong on January 21st. On January 21st, the average price of caustic soda in the Shandong region was 985 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.11% compared to January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda tends to be strong in the operating market. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 980-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is relatively strong, with a mainstream market price of around 930-1030 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The overall operation of the liquid alkali market in Shandong is relatively strong, and the overall inventory is still not high. The tight supply situation in the market has led to an increase in caustic soda prices, and the export business has entered a period of explosive growth. Downstream demand is approaching the Spring Festival, but it is still relatively positive.

On January 20th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 837 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 39.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been relatively strong, with low inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is expected to remain strong in the later period of the Spring Festival, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market will first rise and then fall from January 13 to January 20, 2025. On January 13th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6540 yuan/ton, up 2.45% from 6700 yuan/ton on January 20th. This week, the xylene market first rose and then fell. Due to the dual impact of tight supply and rising crude oil prices in Shandong region, prices were significantly increased at the beginning of the week, and the listing prices of local refineries were raised multiple times. The inventory of ports in East China is running at a low level, and the rise in crude oil is driving up the spot market. However, the overall downstream demand is weak, lacking demand support, and the xylene market continues to have insufficient upward momentum, leading to a pullback in the final stage.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries still have compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions on Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply side of crude oil is supportive, and crude oil market prices have risen significantly. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle is continuously expanding in a positive direction. As of January 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.39 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $80.79 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 20th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6800-6850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6600 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On January 20th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7300 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units is stable, and sales are normal. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 17th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 873-875 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 898-900 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to perform well in the near future, and it is anticipated that cost support will remain strong in the future. On the supply side, the inventory in Shandong region has been running at a low level recently, with good support from the supply side. Demand is facing the upcoming holiday, and downstream demand expectations are gradually weakening, providing weak support for the market. Overall, the market demand is relatively weak, and it is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the future.

This week, the domestic acetone market saw a broad rise followed by a slight decline. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported an average price of 6000 yuan/ton on January 13th and 6185 yuan/ton on January 16th, an increase of 3.08%. As of the 16th, the mainstream negotiated price for acetone in the East China region is between 6000-6100 yuan/ton.

The cost support is strong, and at the beginning of the week, the raw material pure benzene increased significantly due to the impact of crude oil. Phenol ketone enterprises are already on the loss line, and the significant increase in raw materials has led to increased losses, driving acetone from the cost side.

The supply side tightened, and port inventory fell to 23000 tons. In the early stage, prices fell and traders actively shipped, resulting in a significant decrease in port inventory. According to statistics, as of January 16th, the number of acetone shipments in transit in January was less than 50000 tons, reaching 3.2 tons. On the other hand, Shenghong Refining and Chemical temporarily stopped production due to a malfunction, resulting in a weekly operating rate of around 80%. This has boosted the mentality of traders, with a clear upward trend in pricing and a rapid surge in offers.

Petrochemical companies are actively raising their listing prices to help the market rise. On the 15th, Sinopec East China’s acetone listing price was increased by 6150 yuan/ton, and Sinopec North China’s listing price was increased by 6250 yuan/ton.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on January 16th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on January 16th/ Quotation on January 13th

East China region/ 6050./ 6000

Shandong region/ 6280./ 6000

Yanshan region/ 6250./ 6050

South China region/ 6150./ 6050

From the demand side, the production capacity of downstream isopropanol and MIBK units is normal, while the operating loads of bisphenol A and MMA are low, and the demand for acetone remains relatively stable.

After a rapid rise in the first half of the week, terminal enterprises have slowed down their high price purchases. On the afternoon of the 15th, the market as a whole fell, but the supply of goods in the market also relatively decreased. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most enterprises have finished stocking up, and a few enterprises are still watching. The operating rate of phenol ketone factories has temporarily stabilized. It is inevitable that a few traders will have more inventory and sell at a discount next week. It is expected that there will still be a slight downward space in the acetone market next week.