The price of ethylene glycol decreased in November
The price of ethylene glycol has been falling continuously in November, and the price center has shifted downwards. Recently, the price has started to stop falling. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4056.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% from the average price of 4220.83 yuan/ton on November 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the basis of spot contracts for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) has weakened significantly recently due to weak market trading sentiment and low willingness of traders to hoard goods. As of November 27th, the daily basis trading range for this week’s contract is+8 to+12; As of the closing, the contract basis price for next week is+9 to+11. The contract basis price for December is+16 to+18, and the contract basis price for January is+28 to+31.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3770-3880 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of November 26th, the recent negotiations and transactions for ship to land prices have been around $460-464 per ton.
The main reasons for the decline in ethylene glycol in November are:
The price of ethylene glycol fell in November, mainly due to the expected release of new domestic production capacity and the accumulation of port inventory due to the rebound of imports; The increase in market trading supply and decrease in demand expectations, coupled with the concentration of port arrivals, have accelerated the decline in the market data.
The main reasons for the recent halt in the decline of ethylene glycol are:
In terms of imports, Iran has expectations of weakened winter supply. On November 24th, there were market rumors that two sets of ethylene glycol plants with a total annual output of 3.3 million tons in Iran would shut down, and another four sets with a total annual output of 7.25 million tons of ethylene glycol plants have plans to shut down, expected in late November or early December.
In terms of domestic supply, the weekly production of ethylene glycol has decreased compared to the previous period, the synthesis gas method has increased its negative load reduction, the integration has slightly reduced its negative load, and there is a maintenance plan for the ethylene method unit in the later stage. In the near future, the expected maintenance of existing coal based facilities has increased, and the price of ethylene glycol is expected to stabilize and stop falling.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of ethyl acetate on November 26th was 5370.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% compared to yesterday’s price. On November 26th, the ethyl acetate index of Shengyi Society was 73.06, up 0.23 points from yesterday, down 50.73% from the highest point of 148.30 points during the cycle (September 27, 2021), and up 23.06% from the lowest point of 59.37 points on September 7, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

The domestic ethyl acetate plant operates stably, with a relatively high overall opening rate and slow downstream consumption. It mainly enters the market on demand. Ethyl acetate manufacturers are negotiating shipments, and the raw material acetic acid market continues to rise. There is a strong intention for ethyl acetate to rise. Driven by costs, the ethyl acetate market has been adjusted upwards.
Looking at the future, the ethyl acetate plant is operating steadily, with high inventory pressure on the supply side and limited downstream purchases. The market is mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, while the upstream acetic acid market is strong, providing support for the ethyl acetate mentality. It is expected that the short-term ethyl acetate market will narrow down, and specific attention will be paid to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation in the future.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market prices have risen. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8466.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.96% compared to November 1st.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The price of raw material propylene has increased this week. Strong cost support has led to a shift in the center of gravity of epoxy propane. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6098.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Fluctuations in the supply side have affected the temporary supply tension of epoxy propane. Recently, Wanhua and Xinyue’s epoxy propane have reduced their negative load, and Wanhua has outsourced epoxy propane, further increasing the tight supply situation in the market. The tight supply situation has led to an increase in the price of epichlorohydrin.
Demand side: The downstream demand side has a decent demand for purchasing epoxy propane, with high purchasing enthusiasm and smooth shipment of epoxy propane. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the later stage.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the raw material side propylene market price support is strong, downstream demand side has high purchasing enthusiasm, and epoxy propane shipments are smooth. At present, some epoxy propane enterprises are operating at a reduced load, resulting in tight market supply. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable and strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 17th to 21st, the domestic BDO price remained at 7442 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.42%. The domestic BDO market is mainly wait-and-see, and with the settlement cycle approaching, many businesses are waiting for the new moon policy, resulting in a light trading atmosphere for actual orders. The fluctuations on both the supply and demand sides are limited, the negotiation game continues, and the overall market is deadlocked.

In terms of supply and equipment, some devices experience narrow fluctuations, while others operate relatively stably. The market supply of goods has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but it is still relatively abundant, and the supply side support is currently average. The favorable factors for BDO supply have weakened.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: production enterprises have smooth shipments, strong cost support, and a strong willingness to raise prices for calcium carbide. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is weak and consolidating. As of 10:00 am on November 21, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 1995 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are relatively weak, and the cost of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the demand side, except for the decline in production in the PBT industry, there has been no significant change in the load of other industries downstream, and the overall downstream digestion of raw materials has decreased. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the supply side will experience a slight increase in supply volume due to the slight increase in negative operation of some devices. Downstream industry demand has slightly decreased, with multi-dimensional contract orders being followed up, and spot purchases being light and negotiated. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 836 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 832 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.51%. On November 13th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 759 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 45.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 26.92% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 750-860 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 850-970 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2450-2600 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). From the perspective of the Shandong region, there hasn’t been much change in supply and demand, with loose supply and weakened prices. Downstream alumina prices have been deadlocked recently, and distributors have a pessimistic sentiment. Some companies are under significant operational pressure and are purchasing caustic soda on demand.
Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been weak in the operating market. Domestic downstream buyers have been purchasing according to demand, and caustic soda companies have loose supply. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method for producing pyrite type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices have decreased this week. The average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was 13860 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 13500 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a price reduction of 2.6%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the focus of the domestic titanium dioxide market has shifted downwards. At present, the demand for titanium dioxide in the market is light, with average new inquiries and low enthusiasm for downstream procurement. Actual orders are cautious, and overall demand is weak. The production cost of raw materials is high, but effective support on site is difficult to find. The titanium dioxide market is operating at a high rate, and there is pressure on the market to accept orders, so many are waiting and watching. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 12900-13900 yuan/ton; The price of the titanium type is around 12000-12500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s titanium dioxide analyst believes that the focus of the domestic titanium dioxide market will shift downwards this week. There is significant inventory pressure on the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in cautious transactions. It is expected that titanium dioxide will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

In October, the domestic epoxy propane market first rose and then consolidated. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.86% compared to October 1st.

Price influencing factors:
On the raw material side: In October, the market price of propylene raw material declined slightly, but the significant rebound in liquid chlorine prices increased the cost of the chlorohydrin process, putting greater pressure on production enterprises to incur losses and weakening their willingness to supply at low prices, resulting in an increase in the market price of epoxy propane in the first half of the month. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6095.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.84% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In the first half of the month, major factories such as Lihua Yi underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in spot circulation and a reduction in market supply, leading to a significant increase in the market price of epoxy propane. In the second half of the month, due to the reduction of refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of production by previous maintenance companies, the domestic supply of epichlorohydrin has increased. The market price of epichlorohydrin has declined in the second half of the month.
Demand side: The downstream demand side showed weak performance in October, and polyether enterprises held onto rigid demand procurement in multiple dimensions, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The demand side has limited support for the epoxy propane market. The demand follow-up in the first half of the month was relatively concentrated, but the order volume decreased in the second half, and the trading atmosphere was relatively cold. Overall, the demand side’s support for epoxy propane has weakened, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will consolidate and operate in the later stage.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market price of propylene on the raw material side has declined, providing weak support for epoxy propane. Downstream demand is weak, and rigid demand is the main focus, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the restart of the Lihua Yi plant has increased market supply, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly consolidate and operate in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

In October, the domestic ABS market was weak and spread, and most spot prices of various grades were lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 9145 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -7.16% compared to early October.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: During October, the overall operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations. Shandong Haijiang, which was originally scheduled to restart at the end of September, has been postponed to start driving on early October 5th. Since then, except for Haijiang, which has reduced its load to 60% again in late September, no other maintenance tasks for aggregation plants have been announced. The industry load level has been slightly raised to around 73%. The average weekly output remains stable at over 140000 tons. On the other hand, the news of Huajin Chemical restarting the front line and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s production increase plan have both pushed up supply expectations. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: The overall weakness of the ABS upstream three materials market in October has a negative impact on the ABS cost side. Among them, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is loose and the reduction in burden is rare, while the overall demand remains weak and rigid. Buying and purchasing are mainly done as needed, and manufacturers continue to lower prices, resulting in a gradual decline in acrylonitrile. The changes in the future supply side are the direct factors that determine whether the market can truly bottom out, and it is recommended to closely monitor them.
The domestic butadiene market experienced a broad decline in October. After the holiday, the overall operation of the butadiene market was weak, and the ex factory prices of domestic main refineries were generally significantly reduced. The overall performance of downstream demand side is poor, the trend of synthetic rubber market is weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the purchasing intention is weak. By the end of the month, under the dual impact of the restart of maintenance equipment and the production of new production capacity, the degree of supply looseness has once again increased, and the external market continues to decline. There are many negative factors in the market, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to operate weakly in the near future, with a focus on downstream demand.
The styrene market fluctuated and fell in October, with both new plant production and fluctuations within the range. Overall supply was loose, and port inventories remained high. The price of raw material pure benzene followed the weak trend of crude oil and fell weakly, with limited rebound. The operating rate of downstream industries has slightly rebounded, providing some support, but there has been no significant increase in orders for terminal home appliances and other fields. Market follow-up is limited, and procurement enthusiasm is not high, with overall rigid demand as the main factor. At the end of the month, styrene has fallen to a low level. In the short term, the supply and demand of styrene remain weak, and the styrene market may still be prone to decline but difficult to rise in the future.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. In October, the aggregation plant experienced a double period of inventory accumulation, resulting in increased shipping pressure. On the other hand, due to the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises and the drag of US trade barriers, the consumption of the main downstream electrical appliance shell industry is still in a dormant state, and there is no increase in production scheduling. The cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the industry’s export situation is poor. The overall stocking logic still maintains the urgent need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods is slow. The inventory position of merchants is also high, and under the increasing pressure of on-site sales, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.

Future forecast
The domestic ABS market continued to decline in October. The production load of the aggregation plant has been increased, but there has been no increase in consumer demand. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. However, in October, all three upstream indicators fell, and the fundamentals of the future market are unlikely to show positive results. Many industry players have a bearish mentality. It is expected that there will still be downward pressure on ABS in the short term.

The price trend of domestic fluorite in October has declined slightly. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3537.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.01% from the beginning of the month at 3610 yuan/ton, and an increase of 0.71% year-on-year.

Supply side: Low level fluorite in stock is normal for mining operations
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. The operating rate of some mines in the south is relatively low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field is tight. However, due to the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the purchasing intention of merchants in the field is not obvious, and the fluorite market. With the decrease in temperature in the north, the winter shutdown period for mines and beneficiation plants in the northern region is approaching, and market supply is further tightening. At the same time, demand is not improving, and the supply and demand sides continue to play a game, causing the fluorite market to fall from a high level.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
In October, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid declined, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 12000-12500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, while hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock. In the absence of strong demand support, the price of fluorite market has rebounded.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry are being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry’s inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, but caution is still held towards upstream procurement. Hydrofluoric acid enterprises are cautious in procurement, and the price of fluorite market is declining.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the north will become tighter in the later period. However, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises will mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually improved. The fierce game between supply and demand, overall, the fluorite market price is mainly volatile in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12766 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12633/ton, a decrease of 1.04% in price.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have fallen this month, with the ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon (iodine value 1000) ranging from 11000 to 13500 yuan/ton. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in traditional fields such as water treatment and air purification continues to grow, and high prices limit the enthusiasm for transactions, resulting in lower than expected transactions in the activated carbon market.
With the implementation of production expansion plans in major producing countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as the popularization of alternative raw material technologies, prices may fall. Currently, raw material supply is tight, and the main production areas in Southeast Asia are affected by natural disasters and planting structure adjustments, resulting in a decrease in coconut production, a shortage of carbonization materials, an increase in processing enterprises in production areas, and intensified competition, leading to a rise in raw material prices.
Prediction: High prices of coconut shell activated carbon in China limit transactions, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.