1、 Price trend:
On May 29, crude benzene commodity index was 43.87, unchanged from yesterday, 66.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 43.65% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
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2、 Market analysis:
Crude oil rose this week. Crude oil production continues to decline, gasoline demand shows signs of recovery, and the overall oil price shows an upward trend. However, the contradiction between the supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the oversupply is still the primary problem restricting the oil price. This week, it was reported that Russia began to reduce production in July, and oil prices were under pressure again. Brent was up $1.53/barrel, or 4.66%, on May 22, while WTI was up $2.59/barrel, or 7.79%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 48.51% and WTI by 41.02%. On July 27, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. Prices rose on Tuesday, supported by positive crude oil and external market conditions.
The crude benzene market has stabilized this week, and the cost pressure in the downstream hydrogenation benzene market remains the same, which suppresses the price of crude benzene. Although the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene has increased to a certain extent, the overall crude benzene inventory is high, there is no demand support, and the price of crude benzene is mainly volatile. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene in Shandong was 2800 yuan / ton, almost the same as last week.
From the perspective of the business community in the aftermarket, it is believed that the crude benzene price is slightly stagnant in the near future when the fundamental influence has not changed greatly. From the perspective of supply and demand, some factors such as small-scale production restriction appear in some areas of coking enterprises in the near future, but the crude benzene supply is relatively stable and the overall inventory is on the high side. The demand of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises can digest a certain amount of crude benzene, but the cost pressure restricts the price increase of crude benzene In the short term, crude benzene price will keep stable operation, and in the later stage, crude oil price and downstream hydrogenation benzene operation rate will be mainly concerned.