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This week, PVC prices surged and fell back

1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range this week (1.20-24), with prices first rising and then falling. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4946 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.41% during the week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

At the beginning of this week, PVC continued its upward trend from last week, slightly rising, and some manufacturers continued to adjust their prices. The range is between 50-100 yuan/ton. However, after the middle of the week, due to limited positive news on fundamentals, crude oil prices fluctuated and fell, resulting in a weak performance in the futures market. PVC prices have fluctuated within the range, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market is linked downward, coupled with loose supply and demand performance, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, and it is difficult for dealers to improve their offers. Before the holiday, downstream demand gradually shrank, and downstream procurement was mainly based on spot prices. The enthusiasm for inquiry procurement was not high, and the market atmosphere was sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4900-5050 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since January, the market price of calcium carbide has remained stable, which has brought certain benefits to downstream PVC by stopping the decline and stabilizing. In addition, the residual temperature of downstream procurement before the holiday supported market demand, but the current peak of procurement is gradually coming to an end, and downstream consumers generally have a resistance to high priced goods, which to some extent suppresses the continued rise of PVC prices.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that as the holiday approaches, the trading volume in the PVC spot market is gradually weakening, and downstream companies are gradually suspending work and holidays. Demand is weakening, and market transactions are expected to decline. Most of the current rise is driven by the futures market and policies. Although traders are helping to speculate on the rise, the weak fundamentals of the spot market have led to a sustained upward trend.

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Summary of the trend of pure benzene in January (January 1-23, 2025)

1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has risen this month and has been continuously increasing since the beginning of the month. On January 1st, the price was 7234.67 yuan/ton; On January 23rd, the price was 7543 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.26% from the beginning of the month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has increased today. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the Shandong region is actively stocking up, with a good mood for receiving goods on site and a high volume of transactions. In addition, due to the low inventory of most refineries in Shandong, local refineries have reported an increase in offers. The follow-up of buying in the East China region is still acceptable, and the market is mainly stable. Styrene futures rose, and the overnight rise of pure benzene boosted confidence in the pure benzene market. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is good.

 

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has increased by 150 yuan/ton to 7500 yuan/ton.

 

Downstream aspects

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Crude oil futures: On January 22nd, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.44 per barrel, a decrease of $0.39 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.29 or 0.4%.

 

Pure benzene trading: On January 22nd, FOB Korea remained stable at $902/ton, CFR China rose by $3 to $917/ton, FOB Rotterdam rose by $2 to $891/ton, and FOB USG was 303 cents/gallon.

 

Comprehensive forecast: In the short term, the pure benzene market is expected to consolidate and operate within a certain range, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

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Domestic phenol market fluctuates

The domestic phenol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. The major mainstream markets are running smoothly. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7827 yuan/ton on January 15th, and 7770 yuan/ton on January 22nd, with a weekly decline of 0.73%.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

The market atmosphere is flat, with most trading quotes being suspended and not reported. The actual orders are stable, and the impact of imported cargo before the holiday is not expected to be significant. As the holiday approaches, logistics pressure increases, downstream terminal factories’ purchasing sentiment slows down, and some are delisted early. The overall trading atmosphere is flat. As of the 22nd, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

 

Region/ Quotation on the 22nd/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7700./ -50

Shandong region/ 7780./ -20

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7780./ -20

South China region/ 7800./ -100

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, terminal enterprises have reduced their purchases and gradually withdrawn, while traders’ willingness to actively offer has weakened, and the market may weaken or tend to stabilize.

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On January 21st, the price of caustic soda was relatively strong

1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda was relatively strong on January 21st. On January 21st, the average price of caustic soda in the Shandong region was 985 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.11% compared to January 1st.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to survey data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda tends to be strong in the operating market. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 980-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is relatively strong, with a mainstream market price of around 930-1030 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The overall operation of the liquid alkali market in Shandong is relatively strong, and the overall inventory is still not high. The tight supply situation in the market has led to an increase in caustic soda prices, and the export business has entered a period of explosive growth. Downstream demand is approaching the Spring Festival, but it is still relatively positive.

 

On January 20th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 837 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 39.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

 

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been relatively strong, with low inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is expected to remain strong in the later period of the Spring Festival, depending on downstream market demand.

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The overall upward trend of the xylene market is due to tight supply

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market will first rise and then fall from January 13 to January 20, 2025. On January 13th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6540 yuan/ton, up 2.45% from 6700 yuan/ton on January 20th. This week, the xylene market first rose and then fell. Due to the dual impact of tight supply and rising crude oil prices in Shandong region, prices were significantly increased at the beginning of the week, and the listing prices of local refineries were raised multiple times. The inventory of ports in East China is running at a low level, and the rise in crude oil is driving up the spot market. However, the overall downstream demand is weak, lacking demand support, and the xylene market continues to have insufficient upward momentum, leading to a pullback in the final stage.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries still have compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions on Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply side of crude oil is supportive, and crude oil market prices have risen significantly. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle is continuously expanding in a positive direction. As of January 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.39 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $80.79 per barrel.

 

Supply side:

 

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 20th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6800-6850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6600 yuan/ton.

 

Demand side:

 

On January 20th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7300 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units is stable, and sales are normal. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 17th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 873-875 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 898-900 US dollars/ton CFR China.

 

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to perform well in the near future, and it is anticipated that cost support will remain strong in the future. On the supply side, the inventory in Shandong region has been running at a low level recently, with good support from the supply side. Demand is facing the upcoming holiday, and downstream demand expectations are gradually weakening, providing weak support for the market. Overall, the market demand is relatively weak, and it is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the future.

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This week, the domestic acetone market first rose and then slightly fell back (1.13-17)

This week, the domestic acetone market saw a broad rise followed by a slight decline. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported an average price of 6000 yuan/ton on January 13th and 6185 yuan/ton on January 16th, an increase of 3.08%. As of the 16th, the mainstream negotiated price for acetone in the East China region is between 6000-6100 yuan/ton.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

The cost support is strong, and at the beginning of the week, the raw material pure benzene increased significantly due to the impact of crude oil. Phenol ketone enterprises are already on the loss line, and the significant increase in raw materials has led to increased losses, driving acetone from the cost side.

 

The supply side tightened, and port inventory fell to 23000 tons. In the early stage, prices fell and traders actively shipped, resulting in a significant decrease in port inventory. According to statistics, as of January 16th, the number of acetone shipments in transit in January was less than 50000 tons, reaching 3.2 tons. On the other hand, Shenghong Refining and Chemical temporarily stopped production due to a malfunction, resulting in a weekly operating rate of around 80%. This has boosted the mentality of traders, with a clear upward trend in pricing and a rapid surge in offers.

 

Petrochemical companies are actively raising their listing prices to help the market rise. On the 15th, Sinopec East China’s acetone listing price was increased by 6150 yuan/ton, and Sinopec North China’s listing price was increased by 6250 yuan/ton.

 

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on January 16th are as follows:

 

Region/ Quotation on January 16th/ Quotation on January 13th

East China region/ 6050./ 6000

Shandong region/ 6280./ 6000

Yanshan region/ 6250./ 6050

South China region/ 6150./ 6050

From the demand side, the production capacity of downstream isopropanol and MIBK units is normal, while the operating loads of bisphenol A and MMA are low, and the demand for acetone remains relatively stable.

 

After a rapid rise in the first half of the week, terminal enterprises have slowed down their high price purchases. On the afternoon of the 15th, the market as a whole fell, but the supply of goods in the market also relatively decreased. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most enterprises have finished stocking up, and a few enterprises are still watching. The operating rate of phenol ketone factories has temporarily stabilized. It is inevitable that a few traders will have more inventory and sell at a discount next week. It is expected that there will still be a slight downward space in the acetone market next week.

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Adipic acid market rebounds

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in the first half of January, the domestic adipic acid market saw an improvement, with prices rising. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of adipic acid was 8100 yuan/ton. On January 15th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8166 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.82%.

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

 

Raw materials rise, adipic acid market rebounds

 

After the New Year’s Day, the prices of raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone have risen one after another, and the prices of adipic acid manufacturers have been raised, boosting terminal demand. The transaction volume of adipic acid market has improved, and the market continues to rebound. The average price of adipic acid in the domestic market has risen to 8100-8300 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 1%.

 

The adipic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that due to limited increase in raw material prices and loose supply, the adipic acid market will continue to weaken in the future.

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Domestic ammonium sulfate prices tend to rise strongly (1.6-1.13)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on January 13th was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.62% compared to the average price of 828 yuan/ton on January 6th.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has risen this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has decreased. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate in the market is tight, downstream particle manufacturers are actively restocking, market inquiries are increasing, and on-site trading is good. Recently, the price of urea has rebounded, and the negative factors for ammonium sulfate have weakened. As of January 13th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 815 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 850-890 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there has been a decrease in spot inventory in the domestic ammonium sulfate market recently, and the focus of market transactions has been continuously shifting upwards. The manufacturer’s main focus is on raising prices, and the downstream mentality of buying up and not buying down has increased. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience a strong upward trend in price in the short term.

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The hydrofluoric acid market showed a stable trend this week (1.6-1.10)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market showed a stable trend this week. As of January 10th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% from the beginning of this month.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remains stable this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price of fluorite still provides some support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3603.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (3622.50 yuan/ton).

 

On the demand side: As the end of the year approaches, refrigerant quotas are depleted, inventory remains low, but there is still a demand for stocking downstream, and market prices continue to remain firm.

 

Market forecast: High support from the raw material side, insufficient profit margin in the hydrofluoric acid industry, low downstream inventory, and still high and firm quotations will provide favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. Overall, the hydrofluoric acid market will mainly maintain its current situation next week, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

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Cost supported phosphoric acid market prices rise (1.1-1.7)

1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton, which is 0.75% higher than the reference average price of 6630 yuan/ton on January 1st.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7050 yuan/ton, which is 0.71% higher than the reference average of 7000 yuan/ton on January 1st.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Market aspect

 

Domestic phosphoric acid prices have risen this week. As of January 7th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6700-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6850-7250 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of cost

 

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus has shown a strong upward trend. Due to equipment maintenance in some enterprises, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market has decreased. Due to tight supply, the market price of yellow phosphorus has risen, and manufacturers are mainly reluctant to sell. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a focus on small quantities of goods. It is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will remain stable and rise in the short term.

 

Raw material phosphate rock market. The phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, maintaining a high and steady operation. At present, the market supply is still tight, downstream demand is stable, and market trading is good. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

 

Supply and demand side

 

This week, the supply and demand balance in the phosphoric acid market has not experienced significant fluctuations. Downstream on-demand procurement, market trading atmosphere is light. At present, the market supply is stable, and there is no significant change in the supply and demand side.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market trend has been upward recently. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is strengthening, and cost support is increasing. Downstream demand is stable, with primary support for essential needs. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly follow the continued rise in raw material prices.

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