1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 17th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7433.33 yuan/ton. In early April, the cyclohexane market showed a fluctuating upward trend, and enterprise prices continued to rise. The main reason for this is the strong rise in upstream pure benzene, which drove the cyclohexane market to passively rise to alleviate cost pressures. The overall market has frequent high prices and low inventory levels.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: During the Qingming Festival, the price of upstream pure benzene continued to rise due to the influence of upstream crude oil prices, which led to a significant increase in the pure benzene market after the festival. In early April, the pure benzene market showed a volatile upward trend, with strong buying sentiment and a positive attitude among traders. The overall market negotiations were focused on high levels, and the inventory of manufacturers was tight. In late April, with the arrival of a batch of shipping goods in the East China region, the tight inventory situation in the pure benzene market was significantly alleviated. Currently, the pure benzene market is mainly strong, and the overall market returns to stable operation. In the short term, the cost support for cyclohexane is still acceptable.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand is good, and the operating rate of caprolactam market is stable. The overall market price is dominant. Currently, there is sufficient stock in the market. Due to the pressure of cost side price increases, the price of caprolactam has recently decreased in low prices, and high prices have occurred frequently. Inventory consumption is normal, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is still good, mainly focusing on rigid demand procurement.

In terms of technology, the future price of cyclohexane is expected to maintain a strong trend, with limited room for price decline. Since March 17, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. According to April 17, 2024, it is unlikely that the two moving averages will intersect in the short term, and the probability of a change in the operating trend in the next 7 days is not high (i.e., the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average). It is expected that the current trend of cyclohexane will continue to be narrow and strong in the near future.

Historical price monitoring of cyclohexane: Currently, the price monitoring of cyclohexane is at 1-year medium high, 2-year medium low, and 3-year medium low. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average DMF price in the past year is 7059 yuan/ton, with a median value of 7000 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 6433 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 7566 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past year) is 900 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past year) is -233 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, from a cost perspective, the price of pure benzene, an upstream product of cyclohexane, remains high. There is some positive support for the cost of cyclohexane, and downstream demand is good. The operating rate is stable, and it is expected that the cyclohexane market will be mainly strong in the short term, with no obvious downward trend.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOTP prices in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the price of DOTP was 9875 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 2.35% compared to the price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. The price of raw material isooctanol has fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen, PTA prices have fluctuated and consolidated, and the cost support for plasticizers still exists; The production of plasticizer DOTP manufacturers is stable, with sufficient supply of DOTP. Downstream PVC manufacturers are slow to restock, and plasticizers are in urgent need of procurement. The demand for plasticizers is limited, and the price of DOTP fluctuated and stabilized in April.

After the price of isooctanol fell in April, it stabilized

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the price of isooctanol was 9620 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.37% compared to the price of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st. After a sharp drop in the price of isooctanol in April, it stabilized at a low level. The price of propylene, the raw material of isooctanol, fluctuated and rose, supporting costs. The downward pressure on isooctanol weakened; Downstream customers are becoming more proactive in purchasing, and in the future, iso octanol manufacturers are actively shipping. The positive support for iso octanol is increasing.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride was 7737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.98% from the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. The price of crude oil continues to rise, the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, the price of nefa phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for the rise of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The profit loss of phthalic anhydride is relatively large, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have a greater willingness to increase, which will increase the driving force for the future price increase of phthalic anhydride. The cost support for plasticizer DOTP is limited.

PTA prices fluctuate and consolidate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the PTA quotation was 5964 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.50% compared to the PTA price of 5994 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, there was an increase in maintenance for PTA enterprises, but in the 24th year, new PTA production capacity was added and put into operation. The oversupply of PTA intensified, and downstream textile enterprises started at a high level, with limited room for improvement in production. The peak season in May came to an end, and downstream production may slightly decline. Polyester production factories accumulated inventory, and the willingness of polyester factories to receive goods was not good. The support for the increase in PTA demand was limited.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and stabilized, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen, and the cost support for plasticizer DOTP still exists; On the supply side, the production of plasticizer DOTP is at a high level, and there is an oversupply of plasticizer DOTP; In terms of demand, PVC manufacturers are slow to restock, and there is still support for the demand for plasticizer DOTP. In the future, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has stopped falling and increased, and the supply of DOTP is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of DOTP will consolidate at a low level in the future.

The ortho xylene market fluctuated and rose in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the price of ortho xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% compared to the price of ortho xylene on April 1st, which was 8100 yuan/ton. The positive news increased, and the ortho xylene market resumed its upward trend in April.

The price of mixed xylene fluctuates and rises, while the cost of ortho xylene increases; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen, with plasticizers operating at a high level. The phthalic anhydride market has rebounded, and the demand for ortho xylene has rebounded. The demand support for cost increases has increased. In April, the ortho xylene market rose, and the upward momentum of ortho xylene has increased.

The price of mixed xylene raw materials fluctuates and rises

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 15th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the price of mixed xylene on April 7th, which was 7790 yuan/ton; Compared to March 31st, the price of mixed xylene increased significantly by 5.05% at 7520 yuan/ton. The price of mixed xylene increased significantly in April. The xylene units of Hubei Jin’ao and Jinke Refinery were shut down for maintenance in March; Jiangsu Xinhai, Zhenghe Petrochemical and other facilities plan to shut down for maintenance in April, and there are still plans for equipment maintenance in May and June. The maintenance of mixed xylene has increased, the supply of mixed xylene has decreased, and the support for the mixed xylene market has increased; And the price of raw material crude oil continues to rise, the price of mixed xylene increases, and the cost of ortho benzene increases.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market rebounds

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of April 15th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48% compared to the price of 7612.50 yuan/ton on April 7th; Compared to April 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 1.81% to 7587.50 yuan/ton. The price of crude oil continues to rise, the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, the price of nefa phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for the rise of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The profit loss of phthalic anhydride is significant, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have a greater willingness to increase. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate slightly.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, in terms of cost, crude oil prices continue to rise, coupled with an increase in mixed xylene maintenance, mixed xylene prices fluctuate and rise, leading to an increase in the cost of neighboring xylene; The expected start of production of plasticizers has decreased, and downstream phthalic anhydride manufacturers are generally selling goods. The phthalic anhydride market has slightly rebounded, and the demand support for ortho xylene is limited. In the future, the demand support for rising costs is limited, and the upward momentum of the ortho benzene market still exists. It is expected that the ortho benzene price will fluctuate slightly and rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the BOPP market has seen a narrow upward trend in prices this week. As of April 11th, domestic producers and traders have reached 18 μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s BOPP film is around 9633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.52% from last week’s average price and about 0.26% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7814.29 yuan/ton, which is 0.92% higher than the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton).

The price of raw material PP has increased, and the cost support of raw materials for BOPP has been strengthened.

In terms of supply: the operating load rate of membrane enterprises has increased slightly. How to increase supply at the supply side and the inventory pressure of membrane enterprises have increased.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises mostly replenish essential goods, with less replenishment, low transaction volume, low purchasing intention, weak trading volume, and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

The overall price of upstream raw materials has fluctuated upwards, and the cost side has increased its support for the market. However, downstream demand enterprises have weak purchasing intentions and weak transactions. It is expected that BOPP prices will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market price remained stable this week, with an average price of 17266.67 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market prices have remained stable this week. The overall trading situation on the market is average, with traders offering more flexible prices. Downstream players are more cautious, and procurement is mainly based on demand. As of now, domestic prices for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16700 and 18300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has been at a high level this week. The market price is strong and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1580-1620 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2350 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly strong, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have remained stable with some increases this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid was 328.75 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 331.25 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a price increase of 0.76%. This week, sulfuric acid remained stable with minor fluctuations, and mainstream prices remained stable. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that currently, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region is operating at a high level, with sulfuric acid prices showing significant stability and minor fluctuations. The cost pressure on titanium dioxide remains, and the stability of market prices on the market is the main focus. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of titanium dioxide will be observed and consolidated, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

This week, the lead market (4.1-4.8) fell first and then rose. The average price in the domestic market was 16365 yuan/ton last week and 16345 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 0.12%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the range of fluctuations, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has had relatively small fluctuations in recent times.

The lead ingot market has remained in a low season recently, with relatively small market fluctuations during this cycle. The overall trend has declined first and then increased, and prices have fallen due to high inventory before the holiday. During the Qingming Festival, macro factors such as geopolitical sentiment and risk aversion have boosted the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal market. During the holiday period, external lead prices have risen, while Shanghai lead prices have risen after the holiday. However, due to fundamental constraints, the increase is limited. From the perspective of supply and demand, silver prices have been relatively high recently, which has boosted the enthusiasm of smelters to start production. The supply of lead ingots is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the downstream market is still in a seasonal off-season, and the overall sales of lead-acid batteries are weak. Currently, manufacturers are mainly actively digesting inventory, maintaining the principle of replenishing inventory when necessary for raw material procurement. Some manufacturers also have maintenance plans, resulting in overall weak downstream demand. Overall, the supply of lead ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, it is in a seasonal off-season. The recent changes in supply and demand have been limited, and the market is operating weakly, but overall fluctuations are not significant. It is expected that the market will continue to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Industry data:

On April 7th, the base metal index was 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 7th, the non-ferrous index was 1133 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 26.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 86.66% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are praseodymium neodymium alloy (5.71%), metallic praseodymium (5.70%), and praseodymium oxide (5.59%). There are four products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being silicon metal (-0.93%), lead (-0.64%), and cobalt (-0.22%). The average increase and decrease this week was 1.71%.

The market for ortho xylene rose in the first quarter

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 31st, the price of ortho xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.58% compared to the price of ortho xylene on January 1st, which was 7600 yuan/ton. In the first quarter, the trend of ortho benzene continued to rise at the end of 2023. Starting from February, the trend of ortho benzene growth slowed down, and the price of ortho benzene temporarily stabilized from March to April.

Mixed xylene fluctuates and rises, while the cost of ortho xylene increases; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, with plasticizers operating at a high level. The phthalic anhydride market is weak and stabilizing, and the demand for ortho xylene is weak. The demand support for rising costs is limited. In the first quarter, the ortho xylene market rose, but in March, the ortho xylene market remained stagnant, and in April, the upward momentum for ortho xylene increased.

The price of mixed xylene raw materials fluctuates and rises

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 7th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7710 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.62% from the price of mixed xylene on January 1st, which was 6970 yuan/ton; Compared to March 31st, the price of mixed xylene increased by 2.53% to 7520 yuan/ton. In January, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise, while in February and March, the price of mixed xylene stabilized strongly; In early April, mixed xylene saw a significant increase. The expected decrease in mixed xylene supply in the second quarter is evident in the support of the mixed xylene market. And crude oil prices continue to rise, mixed xylene prices rise, and the cost of ortho benzene increases.

Downstream prices of phthalic anhydride are weakly consolidating

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of April 7th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7612.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to March 31st when the price of phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton; Compared to the price of 7662.50 yuan/ton on January 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride has decreased by 0.65%. In the first quarter, domestic phthalic anhydride plants operated steadily, with sufficient spot supply of phthalic anhydride. The purchasing situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers was average, and the production of plasticizers was at a high level. The expected production of plasticizers in April decreased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride in the future market was expected to be weak, leading to a consolidation of phthalic anhydride prices in the future.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, in terms of cost, crude oil prices continue to rise, coupled with an increase in mixed xylene maintenance in the second quarter, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose in the second quarter, leading to an increase in the cost of neighboring xylene; The expected start of plasticizer production in the second quarter has decreased, and downstream phthalic anhydride manufacturers are generally selling goods. The phthalic anhydride market is weak and temporarily stable, and the demand for ortho xylene remains weak. In the future, the demand support for rising costs is limited, and the upward momentum of the ortho benzene market still exists. It is expected that the ortho benzene price will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend declined in March. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.19% from the beginning of the month price of 4060 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%.

In March, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market declined, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable. Recently, there was sufficient supply of goods on site, and downstream procurement was not active. The market price of ammonium nitrate mainly declined. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the purchasing atmosphere in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has cooled down. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, but the price trend of ammonium nitrate has recently declined. As of the end of the month, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5300-5500 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3600-3800 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3700-3800 yuan/ton.

In March, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid continued to decline, with an average price of 1750 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 7.41% from the initial price of 1890 yuan/ton. Mainstream enterprises in East China quote 1700-1800 yuan/ton, while northern and central China quote 1700-1900 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is sufficient, and the cost trend has slightly increased. The market mainly relies on orders, and the market transaction situation is not good. Industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, and the on-site price of nitric acid has significantly decreased, while the market price of ammonium nitrate has declined.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia has significantly increased this week, with a price of 3323.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 11.65% compared to the price of 2976.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The amount of ammonia released in the main production areas in the north has decreased, and some units in Shandong have increased their production of urea. The market has shown tight supply, and prices of large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei have significantly increased. In addition, downstream procurement is active, and manufacturers have raised factory prices. Currently, the mainstream quotation in Shandong is between 3300-3400 yuan/ton, and the decline in ammonium nitrate market prices is limited due to the impact of cost increases.

Recently, the procurement in the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is in the off-season. The price of nitric acid is showing a downward trend, while the market trend of liquid ammonia is rising. The combined influence of long and short factors has led to market fluctuations in ammonium nitrate prices, with some showing a downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic TDI price continued to decline in March. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 17900 yuan/ton. On March 31, the TDI price was 16100 yuan/ton, and it was reduced by 1800 yuan/ton within the month, with an overall decline of 10.06%.

The TDI market continued to decline in March. The demand in the terminal sponge market is weak, with limited new overseas orders, low downstream purchasing enthusiasm of TDI, and a small amount of rigid demand procurement in the market. On site trading is light, which has a negative impact on the demand side; In terms of supply, the news from factories is mostly quiet, with some releasing discounted supply and weekly guide price reductions, which is bearish on the trade market. Holders lack confidence and are offering discounts to sell, causing the market’s transaction center to continuously shift downwards. At the same time, affected by the mentality of buying up but not falling, TDI prices are operating weakly.

The upstream toluene market rose in March, with a price of 7350 yuan/ton as of March 31st, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month’s price of 7210 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene.

According to TDI data analysts from Business Society, currently TDI factories in China are mainly on the wait-and-see side, while trade markets are negotiating shipments. The focus of transactions continues to decline, and there is a bearish atmosphere in the market. Downstream terminal market transactions are limited, and TDI demand support is weak. Business owners are mostly on the wait-and-see side. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to be weak and consolidate. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

Price trend

In March, the domestic PA66 market remained stable with some growth. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on March 27th, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 22900.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.03% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

Adipic acid: Due to the high price of adipic acid at the end of February and poor downstream follow-up in March, the performance of adipic acid has gradually weakened this month. The price of raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, and there was no positive release on the supply side. Under the continued accumulation pattern, the offer of adipic acid continues to loosen, weakening support for PA66.

Hexanediamine: The market for hexanediamine has been operating strongly this month, and the market has been affected by multiple increases from international major factories, resulting in a gradual increase in prices. The improvement of the tight supply pattern in the superimposed market is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high point in the short term; Overall, the cost of two materials, one strong and one weak, provides sufficient support for the PA66 market.

In terms of supply:

This month, the operating rate of the domestic PA66 production line remained low and adjusted. The overall industry load during the month remained basically unchanged compared to the end of February, with an average of over 62%. At present, the production of enterprises is stable and there is no accumulation of inventory. The price adjustment operation is clear, and the supplier’s support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

Entering March, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises have been following a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations maintaining production as the main focus. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. Traders have strong confidence in stabilizing prices and are actively engaged in price fixing operations. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stable with an increase in March. The raw material market continues to be strong, providing sufficient support for the cost side of PA66. The PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is also low. The demand changes of terminal enterprises are limited. It is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily in the short term.