After the Spring Festival, the prices of some bulk commodities went crazy, many “breaking new highs” and “soaring” markets continued to be staged, and many products in the non-ferrous industry rose sharply, including rare earth. The so-called “strong generals have no weak soldiers”. Recently, the market prices of rare earth have repeatedly reached new highs. According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. The price of domestic PR nd rare earth has repeatedly reached new highs. The market price of terbium has risen to a 10-year high, and that of dysprosium has reached an 8-year high. The price of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on February 24 was 516 points, up 18 points from yesterday, and 10 points from the highest point in the cycle 00 (2011-12-06), down 48.40%, up 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).
From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth plate index has been soaring, the recent rare earth market has been crazy, and the market price has been rising one after another. In terms of products:
It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxide, praseodymium and neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide and metal neodymium have reached 8-year highs. The current round of price increase has not stopped since mid December 2020, and the market price continues to rise significantly. As of February 25, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide and neodymium metal in China is 540000 yuan / ton, 665000 yuan / ton, 635000 yuan / ton and 785000 yuan / ton, respectively. The domestic market of light rare earths is on the rise.
The sharp rise of the domestic rare earth industry is mainly driven by two aspects. On the one hand, the domestic environment has been improving recently. A number of non-ferrous products in the market have reached new highs, and copper, aluminum and other products have increased by more than 40%. Taking advantage of the rising market, the prices of rare earth products continue to rise. On the other hand, the downstream demand continues to expand. Recently, the demand for permanent magnets continues to increase. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnets have also taken a “free ride”. According to the insiders, the rare earth gap is likely to continue throughout 2021. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 194000 and 179000 respectively, up 285.8% and 238.5% year on year respectively. Downstream demand is rising, it is said that the demand gap has been increasing, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise. Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market price of terbium series has reached a 10-year high, and that of dysprosium series has reached an 8-year high.
It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series continues to be red, with dysprosium oxide price of 2.7 million yuan / ton as of the 25th; dysprosium ferroalloy price of 2.6 million yuan / ton, dysprosium metal price of 3.275 million yuan / ton, domestic price of terbium series rises sharply, domestic price of terbium oxide is 9.3 million yuan / ton, metal price of terbium is 11.9 million yuan / ton, terbium series price rises to a new level in 10 years, domestic heavy rare earth market is booming The price has reached new highs.
There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, the supply side of rare earth is tightening, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the import source has decreased significantly, the domestic heavy rare earth market supply and demand contradiction is sharp, resulting in the price of heavy rare earth has increased significantly. Second, the impact of domestic rare earth purchase and storage policy is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and prices of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has risen significantly.
In February 2021, the opinions of the State Council on supporting the revitalization and development of the old revolutionary base areas in the new era proposed to promote the construction of “China’s rare gold Valley” and study the policies for the purchase and storage of medium and heavy rare earth and tungsten resources. The purchase and storage of rare earth and heavy rare earth account for a large proportion, which brings great positive support to the domestic market, and the price of domestic rare earth market rises sharply. In addition, the total control index of the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2021 increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total control index of rare earth mining in 2021. The total control index of the first batch of rare earth mining (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China in 2021 was 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth), The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled. The state policy is favorable, and the market price of rare earth will continue to rise.
In the near future, driven by downstream demand, especially the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry, it is expected to drive further growth of demand. The domestic demand for new energy has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business community analysts expect that the rare earth market will be popular all the way in the future.