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Plasticizer industry off-season, phthalic anhydride prices continue to be low

First, the trend of the market:

 

 

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride remained low, with the price at the end of the weekend at 5833.33 yuan/ton, down 15.66% from the same period last year. The main stream of phthalic anhydride negotiation in Jiangsu is 5700-6000 yuan/ton, and the spot supply in the market is normal. The naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the current quotation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton. Even though the market price of phthalic anhydride has a short upward trend, it is like a flash in the pan, and the price keeps low all the time. Level.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has maintained a low level. The market of No. 14 has risen slightly due to the increase of orders from some factories. However, the rising trend of the market price of phthalic anhydride is relatively short. The market opening rate of phthalic anhydride in the field has been maintained at about 70%, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is sufficient, the downstream factories have just needed to purchase and the factory war Inventory situation is general, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5600-6000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, the market price changes little, the quotation trend of enterprises in North China is temporarily stable, downstream construction is not high, and purchasing on demand. Mainly, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride on-site goods generally, phthalic anhydride market prices have maintained a low level, phthalic anhydride market manufacturers have been in a loss stage, the recent loss price of 100-200 yuan/ton, while Nafa phthalic anhydride although there is profit space, but almost at the cost line. Nearby, the profit of phthalic anhydride market is difficult to improve.

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Upstream: Recently, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream product, Sinopec o-phthalic acid, is 6000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is about 6000 yuan/ton. This week, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the port supply is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in the upstream of phthalic acid remained volatile, the turnover of phthalic acid was normal, the stock of phthalic acid in the port was low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market was temporarily stable, the actual transaction price of imported phthalic acid was discussed in detail, the upstream price trend remained stable, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market slightly declined.

 

Downstream: DOP prices have remained low in the recent downstream. The domestic DOP market price was 7266.67 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. Recently, DOP external quotation has been adjusted concussively. Overall, the price of plasticizer DOP external quotation has remained stable, and the market interest of DOP is limited. The price of DOP in China is 915 US dollars/ton, which is stable compared with last month’s. The price of DOP in Southeast Asia is 1185 US dollars/ton, which is 15 US dollars/ton compared with last week’s. The DOP equipment of plasticizer enterprises has increased, the supply is stable, and DOP transactions are mostly at low prices. The overall price of DOP plasticizer is stable and declining slightly in the future market. Recently, in the DOP market of Zhejiang, the quotation of merchants is about 7350 yuan/ton, the downstream price is slightly lower, the demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower.

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Industry: Recent plasticizer industry market remains at a low level, terminal downstream demand has not changed much, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream remains volatile, and the terminal demand is still off-season. At the same time, the measures of restricting production in some areas are in progress, combined with the trade war between China and the United States, and other factors, the demand side of the downstream refrigerant industry is difficult to improve. The phthalic anhydride market continues to be in a passive situation. Low volatility will be maintained with prices ranging from 5800 to 5900 yuan/ton.

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Crude oil surge, boosting ethylene external market

Price trends:

 

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the external price of ethylene showed an upward trend on August 15. The average price of ethylene was $945.25/ton, up 2.12% from the previous day’s price of $836.75/ton, and down 2.15% from the previous year.

Market analysis:

Products: Ethylene showed an overall upward trend on August 15. Ethylene prices in Asia rose, with CFR closing at $957-965 per ton in Northeast Asia and $857-865 per ton in Southeast Asia. Upstream crude oil prices rose, European ethylene market prices for FD in Northwest Europe closed at $1021-1032 per ton, CIF in Northwest Europe closed at $925-936 per ton. The price of ethylene in the United States rose, ranging from $368 to $381 per ton. Overall, the price of crude oil in the upstream rose sharply, which helped to support the rise of the whole ethylene market, and the market atmosphere was strong. Businessmen pay more attention to the situation of supply and demand after the festival.

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International: On August 13, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $57.10 per barrel, or $2.17. Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.30 per barrel, or $2.73. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said Wednesday that the Trump Administration will postpone the 10% tariff on some Chinese imports to the United States. Market fears about the trade war between China and the United States have eased. International crude oil closing rose sharply. WTI crude oil in the United States reached a two-week high, and Brent crude oil recorded the largest percentage increase in the year. The price of crude oil has risen, while the cost of ethylene has improved. The price of downstream styrene has rebounded slightly and the price of ethylene glycol has consolidated, which also supports the price of ethylene.

3. Future market forecast:

Ethylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that crude oil is still in a burning market atmosphere. Macro-level economic worries will continue to plague the market. Overlapping the unresolved problems of Iran in the Middle East, the current factors affecting the crude oil market are still multi-empty and complex. Cost may support the ethylene market, and business community data analysts expect ethylene prices to remain narrowly volatile next.

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Potassium sulfate market prices continued to stabilize this week

Price Trend

 

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market trend of potassium sulfate is stable this week.

II. Market Analysis

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Mannheim potassium sulfate price is basically stable, 50% of the mainstream factory price of 2800-3100 yuan/ton, 52% of the factory price of 3000-3200 yuan/ton. The low price supply of powdered potassium sulfate in Qinghai water-salt system has restrained the high market price to a certain extent. The mainstream arrival quotation is about 2550-2600 yuan/ton, and the delivery is general. At present, the Luo Potassium plant has been continuously overhauled, the price is temporarily stable, and there is still a certain stock to be issued. The actual transaction price of 51% powder in the region is about 2750 yuan/ton, and 52% powder is about 2800 yuan/ton. Local environmental safety inspection normalization, slow delivery of by-product hydrochloric acid from some enterprises, high cost of raw materials such as potassium chloride and other multi-pressure, sales slowed down significantly compared with the previous period. The downstream compound fertilizer market is still quiet and the fertilizer progress is slow in autumn.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analysts of business associations believe that the domestic market for potassium sulphate has not fluctuated much recently, and the market continues to be mainly stable.

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Recent DOP prices “go in three directions and retreat one”, the market of plasticizers in the future is weakening.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices have gone up and down three times in recent years, the DOP market has been shaken and adjusted, and the overall DOP market is stable. As of August 9, the price of DOP in East China was 7266.67 yuan/ton, up 166.67 yuan/ton from 7100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 2.35%, down 21.01% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product Analysis

As can be seen from the figure above, the recent adjustment of DOP external quotation shocks, the overall price shocks of plasticizer DOP external quotation remain stable, and the DOP market is limited. The price of DOP in China is 915 US dollars/ton, which is stable compared with last month’s. The price of DOP in Southeast Asia is 1185 US dollars/ton, which is 15 US dollars/ton compared with last week’s. The DOP equipment of plasticizer enterprises has increased, the supply is stable, and DOP transactions are mostly at low prices. The overall price of DOP plasticizer is stable and declining slightly in the future market. Fall.

Analysis of Industrial Chain
As for raw materials, the price of DOP raw material octanol has been rising and then stabilizing, while the price trend of phthalic anhydride has been rising and then falling, and the overall market of raw materials has been weakening. The weakness of raw material market affects the rise of DOP, and the decline of phthalic anhydride and octanol is less than that of DOP. DOP still has downward pressure in the future, but the downward pressure is weakened, and the market is expected to decline slightly after DOP.

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On the downstream demand side, the recent price shock of PVC has fallen and the overall market of plasticizers has been negative. However, the market of PVC has picked up this week, while the demand for plasticizers has picked up somewhat, but the overall benefit is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business associations, believes that raw material prices have a downward trend in the near future, and DOP costs in the future are falling. Downstream PVC futures have brought about a warming spot market, which has a positive impact on the downstream market of plasticizer DOP. However, the overall market of PVC is still weak compared with previous years, and the market benefits for plasticizers are limited. On the external market, DOP price volatility is stable, good for DOP is limited, bad pressure is general, overall DOP market is mixed, plasticizer market is weak, DOP price is expected to decline slightly in the future.

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China’s domestic lithium hydroxide market prices fell this week (8.5-8.9)

I. Lithium hydroxide price trend:

 

According to the data from the business associations’list, as of August 9, the price of lithium hydroxide has been lowered. At present, the mainstream price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide is around 74000-80000 yuan/ton, which is 0.43% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

II. Market analysis:

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Products: Lithium hydroxide market price down. The output of the manufacturer has gradually increased, the downstream demand has not substantially improved, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted at 80,000 yuan/ton, Zigong Tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted at 74,000 yuan/ton, and Shanghai Oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted at 77,000 yuan/ton. The specific price is one-sided.

Industry chain: The overall market price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is down. Battery-grade lithium carbonate is affected by the poor demand of power market. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate declines significantly, with a weekly rise and fall of -4.41%. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate demand is relatively stable, but the increase of supply leads to a large price fluctuation, with a weekly rise and fall of -3.13%.

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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 31 st week of 2019 (8.5-8.9), there were 16 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (12.69%), acetic anhydride (10.50%) and butadiene (4.20%). There are 36 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-22.73%), sulfur (-5.81%) and propylene (-4.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.41%.

3. Future market forecast:

Lithium hydroxide analysts at business associations believe that the market price of upstream lithium carbonate has fallen and the cost support of lithium hydroxide has weakened. The market supply is gradually increasing, the downstream demand has not substantially improved, and the follow-up of lithium hydroxide is insufficient. It is expected that in the short term, the market of lithium hydroxide will be dominated by weak operation.

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Sodium metabisulfite prices continued to be weak this week (8.5-8.9)

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium metabisulfite in China

 

According to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to run weakly at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1833.33 yuan/ton, while the average price at the end of the week was 1816.67 yuan/ton, down 0.91%.

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II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market performance of sodium pyrosulfite is still low. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1900 yuan/ton. Most of the prices are concentrated around 1750-1850 yuan/ton. Processing costs continue to suppress, downstream trade entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and domestic sodium pyrosulfite market prices continue to operate slightly weaker at the bottom this week. Affected by high temperature and continuous shrinkage of processing profits, some manufacturers have entered the state of shutdown and maintenance. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, and the market atmosphere is general. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: Soda price in the upstream of this week is steadily moving forward, sulfur price fell 5.81%, processing costs continued to decline, trade entities procurement caution, cost suppression, pyrosulfite market price overall warming pressure.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that processing costs remain low, downstream demand remains weak, and the domestic pyrosulfite market price is expected to continue to maintain a weak bottom trend next week.

Point of view on the rise and fall of lithium carbonate on August 7

Commodity Name: Lithium Carbonate

Latest Price: Industrial Class: 61800 yuan/ton, Battery Class: 69400 yuan/ton

Main points of analysis: Since August, the overall market price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline. Battery-grade lithium carbonate is affected by the poor demand of power market. The price has dropped obviously. The downstream is mainly in need of purchase, and the willingness to stock up is not obvious. The demand for industrial lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but the increase in supply leads to greater price fluctuations.

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Future market forecast: At present, the market supply of lithium carbonate products is relatively sufficient, and it is expected that the pressure of future supply exceeding demand is still in the future. It is feared that it will be difficult to have greater support for price.

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Butadiene Market Price goes Up

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has been rising recently. As of August 6, the price of butadiene was 9645 yuan/ton, up 14.51% annually and down 25.17% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic butadiene prices continue to rise, Sinopec’s supply price continues to adjust to the high level of 10,000 yuan, a small amount of goods in Northeast China have been increased by a wide range of prices, and the shortage of spot resources in East China has boosted the market to a high level. Private factories in Shandong have increased their ex-factory prices to 10,500 yuan/ton, and high-quality products in the market have been delivered to the price reference of 10,600-10,700 yuan/ton; spot resources in East China are limited, and some high-price goods in North China have flowed in and supplemented, and they have been sent to the offer of about 11,000 yuan/ton for negotiation.

On the market side, the butadiene market in Shandong continues the upward trend of high level. The Northeast supply has been greatly increased in price. Private manufacturers’export prices have risen in the region. The delivery price of high-grade products refers to about 10600-10700 yuan/ton. Sporadic high prices have also been heard and discussed. Butadiene market quotations in East China continue to rise. Spot resources in the region are limited. Some high-priced goods from North China are flowing in and supplemented. The high-grade middlemen deliver their quotations at about 11,000 yuan/ton. Although some downstream inquiries are not intentional, there is no low-priced goods available in the region.

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Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term parking; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding for export trading range of 10,180-10,210 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, the export transaction price is 9820-9840 yuan/ton. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation plant in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29.

3. Future Market Forecast

Inventory lows sustain a continuous rise in supplier prices, and high spot prices continue to boost the market. Short-term follow-up is limited and the trend of Tianjiao futures is weak, which has an impact on the mentality of some businessmen. However, there is no pressure on the supply side of butadiene, and the market is difficult to find low-price sources. Business analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will continue to be high. They suggest that attention should be paid to the prices of manufacturers and transaction situation.

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Cyclohexanone market fell slightly (7.29-8.2)

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone fell slightly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 8433 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8333 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a drop of 1.19% in the week, which was 30.56% lower than that of the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market continued to decline slightly this week, pure benzene market prices fell, cost support was unstable, and the downstream caprolactam market spot weakness fell, purchasing cyclohexanone profit was thin, chemical fiber orders were less in the week, solvent Market on demand purchasing, on-the-spot bullish sentiment on the future market was strong, real orders were general. Luxi spot does not export in the week, but the downstream demand is general, factory shipments are blocked, and the external quotation is lowered. As of Thursday, the mainstream shipment price of cyclohexanone factory is around 8,100 yuan/ton, and it is now remitted to the factory, which is about 500 yuan/ton lower than last week.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week, the price of pure benzene weak shock. Earlier in the week, the end of the month to fill the gap to drive up the offer of pure benzene, East China reported a high of 5280 yuan per ton in the week, but the purchase was relatively cautious. Although the price of pure benzene in the United States has fallen in recent months, the price in the distant months has remained unchanged, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea is still open, which supports the price of pure benzene in Korea. The price fluctuation of Shandong Geotechnical Refining has softened in the past week. The downstream profit is small, and the price of hydrobenzene is low. Buyers are resistant to high-priced pure benzene. Pure benzene stocks accumulated in the refinery, and continued to reduce the price of shipments. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic caprolactam liquid spot market is weak. Recently, the market is mainly affected by the demand side. The terminal demand is short of good stimulation. In addition, due to high temperature and environmental protection problems, the downstream market demand for PA6 chips is weakening, prices are falling, the delivery of aggregate factories is not smooth, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is declining. Although Sinopec’s contract price has increased, Sinopec’s listed caprolactam price increased 200 yuan/ton to 12800 yuan/ton in August. However, the support of the spot market is limited, the pressure of factory spot delivery is gradually increasing, and the price center of gravity is slightly lower.

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3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the spot supply of cyclohexanone plant fluctuates little, while the demand for downstream caprolactam may decrease, and the solvent market just needs to be purchased. Considering cost pressures, analysts of Cyclohexanone, a business firm, predict that the short-term market for Cyclohexanone will weaken by a limited margin. In the long run, new production capacity may be released in August, showing a pattern of supply exceeding demand.

Fluorite prices in China have stabilized temporarily this week (7.29-8.2)

I. Market Review

According to statistics, this week’s domestic fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable, the weekend price is 3112.5 yuan/ton, which is equal to 3112.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 15.69% year-on-year, and the recent fluorite price trend is stable.

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II. Market Analysis

Domestic fluorite prices have been stable for a while this week, and the start-up rate of fluorite plants has not changed much, but the downstream demand is general. The spot supply of fluorite is normal. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2900-3100 yuan/ton. The mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 3000-3200 yuan/ton. 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 97 yuan/ton. The price of powder is 2900-3100 yuan/ton, and 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 3000-3300 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable. Fluorite farm started to maintain normal levels, recent downstream demand is normal, affected by many factors, fluorite price trend is stable.

Industry chain: The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite fell this week. The factory price of hydrofluoric acid dropped by 5.23% to 11610 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. The downstream market price of hydrofluoric acid is a negative influence of the fluorite market, and the price of fluorite is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, downstream refrigerant product unit operating rate is not ideal, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, refrigerant market trading market is cold, R22 refrigerant unit surface operating situation is not high, R22 market unit operating rate is low, main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 17500-18000 yuan. / Between tons, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market is low, and the shipping market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a has slightly declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the market demand for refrigerants has weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the general downstream start-up situation, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, and the price of fluorite market is stable.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid prices declined, the spot supply of fluorite products was normal, and the fluorite market price trend was temporarily stable.

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3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant started to work normally in the near future, the market price of the downstream hydrofluoric acid industry fell, and the refrigeration industry in the downstream was in general. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst from business associations, believed that the manufacturers in the fluorite field reflected the normal supply of goods, and expected that the price would decline slightly later, or the price would be 3050 yuan/ton approx.