In September, the overall domestic ABS market situation was weak, and most spot prices of various grades were lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9850 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.48% compared to early September.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since September, the domestic ABS industry has experienced a combination of load reduction and restart, with overall load being high, stable, and fluctuating. At the beginning of the month, due to the poor profit situation of the aggregation plant, some enterprises had cost maintenance operations, but the magnitude was relatively narrow. In the middle of the month, aggregation plants such as Tianjin Dagu experienced a return to production capacity, while some enterprises experienced an increase in load in the later part of the month. The industry’s load level fluctuated and remained at around 70% at the end of the month, with limited changes in domestic equipment dynamics compared to the beginning of the month. The average weekly output is over 140000 tons, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is at a high level of 240000 tons, with ample supply maintained on site. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and industry inventory is relatively controllable. Overall, the supply side has weak support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In September, the ABS upstream three material market was generally weak, which had a negative impact on the ABS cost side. At the beginning of the month, the supply of acrylonitrile in the East China region decreased and prices increased. However, the follow-up of spot transactions is relatively slow, and the northern maintenance equipment is gradually recovering, so the spot prices will stop rising and fall in the second half of the month. However, spot buying remains in a state of rigid demand, resulting in limited demand growth and a temporary market downturn. However, considering cost pressures and future stocking expectations, the market’s downward space in the short term is still limited.
The domestic butadiene market experienced a stepwise decline in September. Within the range, the load of Sinopec’s factories has steadily increased, while the listed prices of butadiene by various sales companies have loosened and fallen. Combined with the weak trend of the downstream synthetic rubber market, the enthusiasm of buyers to enter the market is low, and the weak demand side is expected to have a weak and volatile trend in the butadiene market in the short term, with a focus on post holiday procurement demand.
Styrene fluctuated in September. Domestic factories are operating at a high level, with sufficient supply of goods on site and rising port inventories. Downstream stocking into the market is cautious, and traders are watching closely, resulting in weak transactions. The raw material pure benzene market continues to decline, and in the future, the volatility of crude oil and raw materials may be limited. With weak fundamentals, it is expected that styrene will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The market in September was not prosperous during the peak season, and the characteristics of the off-season were still significant. The terminal enterprise’s pre holiday stocking has not been initiated yet, and the logic still maintains the urgent need for supplementary orders. The consumption of the main downstream electrical appliance shell industry is quiet, and there is no increase in production scheduling. The cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain strong at high levels, supply continues to be loose, and there is increased pressure to sell on the market. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In September, the domestic ABS market remained weak. The overall weakness of the upstream three materials is due to the high and stable production load of the ABS polymerization plant, with little fluctuation, and no increase in consumer demand. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. The industry load is expected to increase in the future, and many businesses are bearish, with a tendency for merchants to lower prices and sell more goods. It is expected that ABS may continue to decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5390.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.50% compared to the price of 5363.33 yuan/ton on September 22nd. The price of acetic acid continues to be strong, and the raw material market is boosted positively. Supply side production has increased, which has suppressed a slight increase in the price of ethyl acetate.

This week, the utilization rate of domestic ethyl acetate production capacity has increased, the market inventory has increased, and downstream pre holiday stocking demand is average. A small amount of trading is mainly based on demand. The price of raw material acetic acid continues to rise, which provides good support for the market mentality of ethyl acetate. The price of ethyl acetate has been raised narrowly this week.
Looking at the future, the inventory of ethyl acetate in the market is currently high, and companies are maintaining active shipments. The pre holiday and downstream replenishment sentiment is not good, and the market trading needs to be followed up. The support of the raw material market is limited, and it is expected that ethyl acetate will fluctuate steadily in the short term. Please pay attention to the trend of raw materials and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 28th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced to 6900 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 7087 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65%.
The “Golden Nine Effect” has not yet emerged, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market has fallen
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in September, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province showed an overall downward trend. In the first ten days, the cyclohexanone market had little fluctuation, with a relatively calm supply and demand situation, and the market was weakly consolidating and operating. In the latter half of the year, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong began to decline, and the focus of market negotiations gradually decreased, with a cumulative reduction of around 150-200 yuan/ton. As of September 26th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China is around 6850-6950 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
In terms of demand: In September, the overall downstream demand for cyclohexanone was lower than expected. In the early stage of the Double Festival, the purchasing activity of downstream users before the holiday was average, and the overall performance of cyclohexanone demand was poor, providing insufficient market support.
On the supply side: In September, the overall supply performance of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong was loose, with slow demand transmission, and the overall supply pressure in the market was difficult to reduce. The factory shipment status was positive, and the negotiation market continued to move downward. Therefore, in September, the support provided by the supply side to the cyclohexanone market remained weak.
Market analysis in the future
At present, as the end of the month approaches, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and downstream customers are picking up goods according to demand. The market supply is relatively stable. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that after the holiday, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has fallen this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 838 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 834 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% and a year-on-year increase of 0.12%. On September 25th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 765 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.36% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 27.93% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda fell over the weekend this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 760-850 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 890-990 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). From the perspective of Shandong region, the supply is relatively abundant. The low concentration alkali prices in Shandong region are under pressure, and the recent continuous decline in alumina prices at home and abroad has led to a narrowing of profit margins for domestic alumina enterprises. Therefore, downstream alumina is mostly purchased on demand, and non aluminum receiving is mainly purchased on demand. In addition, due to the upcoming National Day holiday, caustic soda companies have softened their inventory prices, but overall, they mainly focus on consolidating operations in the later stages.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been operating weakly, and the price of caustic soda has been operating weakly. Recently, domestic downstream buyers have been purchasing on demand, and caustic soda companies have sufficient inventory. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the price center of the domestic epoxy propane market has shifted upward. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7683.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.13% compared to the beginning of the month.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: This week, the price of raw material propylene has risen, supported by high costs, providing strong cost support for epoxy propane, and the market price center has shifted upward. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6730.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side, downstream demand for epoxy propane is being replenished, and the transaction volume of new orders in polyether factories has increased. The purchasing atmosphere for epoxy propane is positive, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market price will mainly consolidate in the near future.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the high support of epoxy propane raw materials is still acceptable, downstream market purchasing is active, trading atmosphere is positive, and the market price center has shifted upward. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly operate in a narrow and strong range, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and upstream and downstream supply and demand.

The domestic fluorite prices have continued to rise this week, with an average price of 3350 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 0.94% from the early week price of 3318.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.74%.

Supply side: Low mining operation, tight supply of fluorite
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. The operating rate of some mines in the south is relatively low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field is tight. In addition, the market’s bullish expectations have led to an increase in the reluctance of holders to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods. Fluorite mining enterprises choose factories and hold up prices to sell, resulting. With the decrease in temperature in the north, the winter shutdown period for mines and beneficiation plants in the northern region is approaching, and the market supply is further tightening, leading to an upward trend in the fluorite market.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices temporarily stable, refrigerant market rises
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 10800-11500 yuan/ton in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, the hydrofluoric acid market has risen, and the enthusiasm for purchasing fluorite has increased. This news has affected the price of fluorite to rise.
The downstream refrigerant market continues to rise, and the refrigerant industry is strengthening its terminal policies. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of purchasing at high prices is relatively slow, but the good inventory of the industry is orderly transmitted, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, and the fluorite market has risen.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market, with a clear mentality of buying up rather than buying down, and strong reluctance among holders to sell; In addition, the supply of fluorite in the northern region will become tighter in the later stage, and the downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and refrigerants will be stronger. However, hydrofluoric acid enterprises will mainly purchase according to demand. Overall, the fluorite market price trend is expected to rise in the short term.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 15th, the price of isooctanol was 7016.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.71% compared to the price of 7066.67 yuan/ton on September 8th. This week, the production capacity of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level, and the operating rate of isooctanol equipment slightly increased to 96%. In addition, there was a significant increase in new isooctanol production capacity, resulting in an increase in isooctanol supply; Downstream plasticizer companies have stable production, but the demand support for isooctanol by plasticizers is limited. The increase in supply and demand support is limited, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices stop falling and rebound
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 15th, the DOP price was 7509.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.56% compared to the DOP price of 7467.50 yuan/ton on September 10th. DOP prices have rebounded and stopped falling, while DOP enterprises have increased their operating load. The demand for isooctanol has increased, and the support for the rise in isooctanol prices still exists.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, on the supply side, the equipment operating load of isooctanol enterprises remains stable at a high level, coupled with a large amount of new production capacity of isooctanol, resulting in an oversupply of isooctanol. In terms of demand, DOP prices have rebounded and stopped falling, while support for isooctanol demand still exists. In the future, with the increase in supply and demand support of isooctanol, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has stopped falling and risen this week. As of September 12th, the average market price in East China was 13866 yuan/ton, and on September 8th, the average price was 13666/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.46% and a year-on-year increase of 1.22%.

This week, the TDI market has stopped falling and rebounded. During the week, there were frequent positive news from suppliers, with large northern factories offering a 20% discount on supply, resulting in tight supply. The guidance price for major factories in Shanghai has been raised to 14200 yuan/ton due to tight inventory. The news has boosted the confidence of industry players, and intermediary quotes have been raised. Downstream demand is dominant, with low enthusiasm for entering the market, accompanied by price increases, resulting in sluggish transactions.
Supply side: The Yantai Wanhua TDI plant will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 19th, with an expected maintenance period of about 40 days. Other devices maintain stable operation.
Cost wise: The overall toluene market is weak, with average market transactions and limited guidance on news, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
In terms of future market analysis, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market has a high atmosphere of supply side price support, but the demand side support is limited. The market will closely monitor changes in supply and demand, as well as news segments. In the short term, downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected that the TDI market will digest the increase and organize its operation.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the DOP price was 7517.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.94% compared to the DOP price of 7589.17 yuan/ton on September 1st. The prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen, leading to a decrease in DOP costs and increased downward pressure on DOP; In September, the start-up load of DOP enterprises stabilized, and the supply of DOP was sufficient; Downstream demand is difficult to improve, and there is a lack of interest in DOP procurement inquiries, resulting in limited improvement in DOP demand transactions. Supply increases, costs decrease, and plasticizer prices fluctuate and fall.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell in September
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the price of isooctanol was 7283.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.32% compared to the price of 7533.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. In September, the isooctanol enterprise’s equipment remained stable at a high level, with a 95% operating rate of isooctanol equipment. In addition, there was a significant increase in isooctanol production capacity, resulting in an increase in isooctanol supply; The operating load of downstream plasticizer enterprises is temporarily stable, and the demand support for isooctanol by plasticizers is limited. Due to increased supply and limited demand support, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in September. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the downward pressure on DOP has increased.
The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in September
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6133.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 2.65% compared to the price of 6300 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose, while the price of industrial naphthalene stabilized. The cost support for phthalic anhydride increased, and the load of phthalic anhydride equipment stabilized in September. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises was 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride was stable. The operating load of downstream plasticizer enterprises’ equipment was temporarily stable, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride was limited. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will rebound and rise in the future, the cost of plasticizers will stop falling, and the downward pressure on the price of plasticizer DOP will weaken.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, while the price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and risen. The downward pressure on the cost of plasticizer DOP still exists; In terms of supply, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is consolidated, the production of plasticizers is stable, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient; In terms of demand, the overall economy is sluggish, coupled with anti competition and the elimination of outdated production capacity, resulting in weak downstream demand. In the future, with strong supply and weak demand, coupled with the pressure of cost decline, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 1st to 5th, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15083 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.09% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 15.58%. The factory started operating steadily within the week, but the downstream market enthusiasm was not high, resulting in low transaction volume.

On the supply side, the 80000 tons/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an restarted on August 26th and the plant has returned to normal.
On the cost side, pure benzene fluctuated this week. Recently, pure benzene ports have been destocked, import pressure has eased, domestic maintenance and downstream demand have increased, and supply and demand are expected to improve seasonally in the third quarter. Aniline prices are temporarily stable.
On the demand side, downstream demand is average, the trading atmosphere is quiet, and transactions are mainly small orders.
Future forecast: Currently, the supplier’s production is stable, the source of goods is filling up quickly, the intermediary’s goods are not smooth, and the market inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.