1、 Price trend of polyester staple fiber in 2021
Pf spot price trend
In 2021, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a double peak M-shape and fluctuated sharply. The first peak appeared at the end of February and early March, and the second peak appeared in mid and late October. The trend of cash and futures is similar to that of ethylene glycol in the whole year. According to the price test of business agency, on December 31, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7076 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 18.98%. The highest price was 8398 yuan / ton on October 20, and the lowest price was 5948 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. In the futures market, the main short fiber futures closed at 7070 yuan / ton on December 31, up 10.09% year-on-year. The highest price was 8578 yuan / ton on February 26, and the lowest price was 6400 yuan / ton on the first trading day at the beginning of the year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Pf industry chain price trend
PTA spot price trend
Eg spot price trend
Spot price trend of polyester yarn
In the first quarter, it showed a sharp rise and a slight decline, with a sharp rise in the quarter. After rising unilaterally from January to February, the high in March fell. The staple fiber futures market saw the highest price of 8578 yuan / ton on February 26. During the Spring Festival, the international oil price fluctuated and rose sharply, driving the prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol to rise sharply. The cost rose sharply, the unit was shut down for maintenance, and the downstream goods were prepared after the festival. The polyester staple fiber increased significantly under the negative inventory. In March, after rising at the beginning of the month, the international oil price fluctuated and fell all the way, the high point fell by nearly 13%, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol fell sharply. The cost dropped greatly, the trade middlemen sold goods, the downstream pre festival goods were fully prepared until the procurement was insufficient, the production and sales of polyester staple fiber decreased greatly, and the futures and spot goods were greatly callback.
The second quarter showed a narrow shock W-shaped trend, with a slight decline in the quarter. In this quarter, the price of upstream raw materials fluctuated greatly, the downstream weaving and terminal orders decreased under the condition of early order overdraft, the short fiber manufacturers continued to accumulate the warehouse, and the processing fee continued to compress or even lose money. However, as the international oil price fluctuated all the way up in June (almost showing a unilateral upward trend, and the crude oil futures in New York closed up 9.61% for the whole month), PTA, a staple fiber raw material, also rose significantly with the crude oil price. In addition, the continuous increase in the overhaul of staple fiber devices in June led to a decline in production capacity. In addition, the epidemic affected part of the return of orders in Southeast Asia, the production and sales of domestic polyester staple fiber were better than expected, and the staple fiber period Spot prices bottomed out in June and nearly recovered the land lost at the beginning of the quarter. However, the main short fiber raw material ethylene glycol futures closed down slightly in June.
The third quarter showed a large shock n-type trend, with a small rise in the quarter. The shock increased in July, decreased in August and rebounded in September. In July, inertia continued the upward trend of shock in the previous month. In August, the price of polyester staple fiber fluctuated and fell due to the pressure of cost, supply and demand. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell, and the prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol fell. The downstream yarn weaving market demand is flat, the domestic and export markets have declined, mainly buy as you use, and the transaction is light. In September, affected by cost boost and double control production reduction, the price of polyester staple fiber bottomed out and rebounded. In September, the international crude oil price fluctuated higher, the prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol rebounded, the power and production of main producing provinces were limited due to the dual control of energy consumption, the production and shutdown of polyester staple fiber devices were reduced, the maintenance was increased, and the supply was greatly reduced. However, the inventory of downstream yarn weaving Market and traders was low, so there was a demand for replenishment.
In the fourth quarter, it showed a trend of sharply rising, falling and stabilizing. The shock rose sharply in October, the high level fell in November, and the bottom stabilized and rose slightly in December. In October, driven by the rise of raw materials first and then the decline of raw materials, the price of polyester staple fiber rose sharply and then fell slightly. In October, after the international crude oil price hit a new high in nearly seven years, the spot prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol rebounded. The dual control of energy consumption and power and production restriction in the main producing provinces this month still had a great impact, and the resumption of production of short fiber factories was slow. In addition, affected by domestic coal power control and cracking down on futures speculation, the industrial chain futures market overreacted, and the short fiber futures fell sharply. The collapse of cost and weak demand in November led to a sharp drop of more than 10% in polyester staple fiber, which was almost unilateral. In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply under the pressure of the release of oil reserves by the United States and the spread of the latest mutant strain “Omicron”. At the end of the month, WTI New York crude oil CFD barely closed below 67, with a monthly decline of nearly 20%. The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol followed the sharp decline. Both the current and future prices fell by more than 10%. The order performance of downstream yarn and weaving Market is still weak, The polyester plant plans to reduce production by 20% in the last ten days. In November, the domestic power rationing policy was basically cancelled, the units overhauled in the early stage were restarted one after another, the start-up picked up, the tight supply and demand situation was improved, and the storage was slowly accumulated. In addition, xinfengming Zhonglei staple fiber device has been produced in the middle of this month. In December, raw materials stabilized and rebounded, and double section goods preparation led to the bottom recovery of staple fiber prices. In December, the crude oil inventory of the United States decreased, the production of some oil producing countries was interrupted, and the crude oil price fluctuated and rose. The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol followed the rise. The downstream yarn and weaving Market is close to new year’s day and the Spring Festival holiday, there is a demand for goods storage, and the purchase is increased. The power rationing policy has basically ended, the short fiber supply has improved, and the price has increased steadily.
Import and export data of polyester staple fiber in 2021 and new capacity of polyester staple fiber in the next two years
3、 2022 forecast
Business analysts believe that in the short term, the international crude oil price rebounds slowly and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber is strengthened. In some provinces of China, COVID-19 local cases continue to affect the polyester industry chain upstream and downstream start up and production and marketing, nearly Spring Festival, many textile enterprises ahead of time to leave. It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will show a strong shock trend.
In terms of supply, the annual staple fiber supply is expected to rise. However, the supply pressure in the first half of the year was small, the short fiber inventory pressure in the first quarter was small, the new short fiber production capacity was gradually released in the second quarter, and the textile industry also entered the traditional peak season. However, in the second half of the year, with the gradual operation of the new unit, the short fiber supply pressure is large.
In terms of demand, there is a lack of obvious positive support, and the expected demand for the whole year may be weak as a whole. It is still unclear whether the tight short fiber supply situation in the whole year can be alleviated.
In terms of cost, the cost focus of staple fiber is expected to move down. In 2022, under the expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation and the tightening of monetary liquidity, the crude oil price may be under pressure, and the annual oil price may rise and fall. The domestic expected supply increment of PTA and ethylene glycol is greater than the demand increment, the supply exceeds the demand, the cumulative reservoir pressure increases, and the crude oil price support is weak. It is expected that the PTA and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate weakly throughout the year.
In the whole year, under the expectation of increased supply pressure, weak demand recovery and downward shift of cost focus, it is expected that the short fiber in 2022 may show an upward trend first and then an downward trend. The price may rise both before and after the Spring Festival and national day. The change of raw material price and the release rhythm of new production capacity may dominate the price trend of staple fiber. In addition, the epidemic situation, demand and macro policy also need to be paid close attention.