According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in the first half of January, the domestic adipic acid market saw an improvement, with prices rising. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of adipic acid was 8100 yuan/ton. On January 15th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8166 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.82%.

Raw materials rise, adipic acid market rebounds

After the New Year’s Day, the prices of raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone have risen one after another, and the prices of adipic acid manufacturers have been raised, boosting terminal demand. The transaction volume of adipic acid market has improved, and the market continues to rebound. The average price of adipic acid in the domestic market has risen to 8100-8300 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 1%.

The adipic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that due to limited increase in raw material prices and loose supply, the adipic acid market will continue to weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on January 13th was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.62% compared to the average price of 828 yuan/ton on January 6th.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has risen this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has decreased. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate in the market is tight, downstream particle manufacturers are actively restocking, market inquiries are increasing, and on-site trading is good. Recently, the price of urea has rebounded, and the negative factors for ammonium sulfate have weakened. As of January 13th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 815 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 850-890 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there has been a decrease in spot inventory in the domestic ammonium sulfate market recently, and the focus of market transactions has been continuously shifting upwards. The manufacturer’s main focus is on raising prices, and the downstream mentality of buying up and not buying down has increased. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience a strong upward trend in price in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market showed a stable trend this week. As of January 10th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remains stable this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price of fluorite still provides some support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3603.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (3622.50 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: As the end of the year approaches, refrigerant quotas are depleted, inventory remains low, but there is still a demand for stocking downstream, and market prices continue to remain firm.

Market forecast: High support from the raw material side, insufficient profit margin in the hydrofluoric acid industry, low downstream inventory, and still high and firm quotations will provide favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. Overall, the hydrofluoric acid market will mainly maintain its current situation next week, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton, which is 0.75% higher than the reference average price of 6630 yuan/ton on January 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7050 yuan/ton, which is 0.71% higher than the reference average of 7000 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

Domestic phosphoric acid prices have risen this week. As of January 7th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6700-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6850-7250 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of yellow phosphorus has shown a strong upward trend. Due to equipment maintenance in some enterprises, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market has decreased. Due to tight supply, the market price of yellow phosphorus has risen, and manufacturers are mainly reluctant to sell. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a focus on small quantities of goods. It is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will remain stable and rise in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, maintaining a high and steady operation. At present, the market supply is still tight, downstream demand is stable, and market trading is good. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand balance in the phosphoric acid market has not experienced significant fluctuations. Downstream on-demand procurement, market trading atmosphere is light. At present, the market supply is stable, and there is no significant change in the supply and demand side.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market trend has been upward recently. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is strengthening, and cost support is increasing. Downstream demand is stable, with primary support for essential needs. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly follow the continued rise in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid remained stable at the beginning of 2025 compared to the end of 2024. As of January 6th, 85% of industrial formic acid in China was priced at 2950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.35% compared to the same period last year when it was priced at 3150 yuan/ton.

The main reason for the stabilization of raw material methanol prices is that traditional downstream industries are resistant to high prices. In the short term, port inventory has entered the channel of destocking, and the market has a strong willingness to hold goods, resulting in firm prices.

The demand for upstream sulfuric acid has slowed down compared to the previous period, and the supply remains tight, with prices still showing upward momentum; The high cost of raw materials still provides strong support for sulfuric acid.

The downstream pesticide, rubber, leather, and pharmaceutical industries purchase goods on a per order basis based on market demand, with rigid demand being the main focus. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market remains stable.

According to analysts of Business Society’s formic acid data, the current cost support for formic acid is average, and market trading is mainly driven by demand. It is expected that 85% of domestic industrial formic acid prices will remain stable in the short term, and specific changes in market conditions still need to be monitored.

Ethylene glycol prices rise in December

The price of ethylene glycol rose in December. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4688.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.11% from the average price of 4591.67 yuan/ton on December 1st.

In the morning session, spot contract traders had weak trading. After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many orders, resulting in weak market trading.

On December 31st, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4320 to 4360 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On December 30, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was 554 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 546 US dollars/ton.

The spot market for asphalt showed mixed ups and downs. Considering the low contract volume of some brands at the end of the month and limited inventory pressure of refineries, some brands’ offers were relatively firm. Two sets of equipment in Xinhai, Hebei produced asphalt, and some refineries in Shandong and Henan regions will switch to asphalt production today, resulting in a slight increase in supply pressure; From the perspective of the southern region, the main refineries are maintaining intermittent production, and the market demand is gradually coming to an end. In the short term, the spot market will mainly maintain a situation of low price strength and high price pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and consolidating. From December 1st to 30th, the MTBE price first rose from 5445 yuan/ton and then fell to 5492 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.87% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 15.66%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic MTBE market remained stable and consolidated. After entering December, there were some pending delivery orders for gasoline, which increased the enthusiasm for purchasing gasoline raw materials. At the same time, there were also many new gasoline vehicle and ship orders, which provided positive support for the relevant gasoline raw material market and maintained a strong consolidation.

In mid month, the domestic MTBE market experienced significant fluctuations, with price increases being particularly evident. The core driving factors for the broad upward trend in prices were the large number of gasoline shipments and the strong support of new vehicle and shipping orders. Industry players showed high enthusiasm for purchasing relevant gasoline raw materials, and MTBE manufacturers actively pushed up prices. However, near the end of the week, manufacturers’ shipments weakened.

At the end of the month, the domestic MTBE market trend gradually weakened. As the phased replenishment of inventory by terminal operators came to an end, the enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials slowed down. At the same time, due to the rise of various gasoline components to a phase high point, the mixed profit of operators was compressed, resulting in an increasing resistance to high prices. The MTBE market remained stable but slightly weak.

On the cost side, the international crude oil market in December was mainly volatile, with the main positive factors being: the market believes that the Asian economy is expected to improve, coupled with the risk of new sanctions faced by some oil producing countries, and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of December 27th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.17 per barrel, an increase of $0.91 or 1.20%.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the finished oil market has stopped rising and fallen, and refineries have lowered prices to promote sales. However, the poor performance of terminal demand has suppressed the digestion of social units’ inventory, and the pace of mid to downstream merchants entering the market for procurement has slowed down. Market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the equipment has increased. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on December 27th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $706.99-708.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $850.99-851.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $4.92/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $815.81-816.16/ton (230.35-230.45 cents/gallon).

The future forecast shows weak supply and demand. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

This week, the focus of the epichlorohydrin market is relatively weak, and prices have declined. As of December 27th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shengyi Society was 9125.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.08% compared to the beginning of this week (9225.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: propylene is mainly sorted in a narrow range, while glycerol market prices are consolidating at a high level. The cost side of epichlorohydrin is still under pressure. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6823.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The increase in new production capacity of epichlorohydrin has eased the previous supply tension. This week, the overall operating rate of the epichlorohydrin industry reached 50-60%. It is expected that after the restart and load increase of some facilities in Zhejiang, Shandong and other areas next week, the market supply will increase.

Downstream demand side: Downstream mainly consumes inventory and purchases small amounts of replenishment as needed. The trading atmosphere for new orders is cold. Traders should maintain a mentality of buying up and not buying down, and be cautious and wait.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that cost side prices are under pressure, and downstream inventory consumption is the main factor. They should purchase according to demand and purchase raw materials cautiously. In addition, some enterprises are expected to restart their facilities and increase their burdens. It is expected that the supply of epichlorohydrin will increase next week, and there will be a slight fluctuation adjustment in market prices. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the price of isooctanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.47% compared to the price of 8200 yuan/ton on December 16. This week, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level. The supply of isooctanol was sufficient, but the demand was average, resulting in oversupply and fluctuating prices of isooctanol.

Adequate supply of isooctanol this week

This week, isooctanol enterprises started production at a high level and remained stable. In addition, new production capacity of isooctanol was gradually put into operation in December, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol supply in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol and causes its price to fluctuate and fall.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the DOP price was 8326.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 8576.25 yuan/ton on December 16. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production is high. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is high, and plasticizers have certain positive support for the demand for isooctanol. However, downstream inventory replenishment at low prices has limited support for the demand for isooctanol.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, this week’s high equipment start-up of isooctanol enterprises, coupled with the production of new capacity, has led to an oversupply of isooctanol and increased downward pressure on isooctanol; This week, downstream plasticizer manufacturers have seen an increase in production, but many of them are restocking at low prices, resulting in average demand for isooctanol and limited support for its upward trend. In the future, there will be an oversupply of isooctanol with average demand, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will weakly decline.