According to the company’s commodity market analysis system: the domestic mixed diphenyl market in 2025 the average price at the beginning of the year is 6110 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the year is 5510 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 9.82%. The overall trend of mixed diphenyl market in 2025 is weak, basically divided into two stages, the first half of the year is stagnant and the second half is continuously falling back.
From the point of view of the K-chart of the mixed diphenyl month, the mixed diphenyl market will fall more and less in 2025, five months in the upward month and seven months in the downward month, with the highest increase of 9.17% in January and the highest drop of 12.21% in April.

A review of the mixed diphenyl benzene market in 2025
First Half: Supply and Demand Game, Interval Shock Up 0.16%
Cost side: crude oil, petroleum shock drag
Crude oil: In the first half of the year, international crude oil showed a “surge and fall” trend, Brent crude oil rose to $83/barrel at the beginning of the year due to U.S. energy sanctions against Russia, and fell to about $73/barrel in June due to global oversupply expectations.
Petroleum: Domestic petroleum supply was stable in the first half of the year. Business Association data show that in January-June, domestic petroleum production accumulated 37.8 million tons, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year, Shandong and Guangdong main production areas maintained the start-up rate of 75% -80%; April with crude oil fell to 6550 yuan / ton low, May-June with crude oil rebounded to 7100 yuan / ton, raw material cost fluctuations were directly transmitted to the mixed diphenyl market, driving its price synchronous shock.
Supply side: Domestic production capacity is not released as expected supply first tighten and then loosen
In 2025, it was originally planned to add 4,563,000 tons of mixed diphenyl production capacity, but due to the narrowing of the triphenyl price gap and the decline in production profits, the new unit was put into production more postponed. According to statistics, as of the end of June, only Zhenhai Refinery 360,000 tons, Wanhua Group 30,000 tons of units were put into production, the industry average start-up rate of 68% -72%, China Petrochemical and China Petroleum main refinery export sales remained low, and the monthly export sales accounted for less than 30% in May.
Demand side: PX and oil mixing demand alternately pull overall weakness
PX is the first consumption area of mixed diphenyl (accounting for 62%), the first half of the year demand is “weak and strong”. January-April MX-PX spread narrowed to 300 yuan / ton, PX enterprise extraction activity is low; May spread expanded to 800-900 yuan / ton, short process production profitability repair, Shenghong petrochemical and other enterprises increased monthly extraction of more than 120,000 tons, driving mixed diphenyl turnover increased by 40%, the spot market was boosted by a marked increase in prices.
Mixing demand accounted for 28%, weak performance in the first half of January-June domestic gasoline exports decreased by 12.89% year-on-year, only in March and May due to the rebound in oil prices and the easing of trade between China and the United States, there was a gradual recovery; the penetration rate of superimposed new energy vehicles increased to 38%, the proportion of mixed diphenyl mixing oil was reduced from 15% to 12%, and the consumption in the field of mixing oil increased by only 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, which has a limited effect on the market.

Second half: Supply and demand fell to three-year low
According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, the domestic mixed diphenyl market in July-December 2025 will show a “shock downward, slight rebound at the end of the year” trend, and the market’s gravity will shift significantly from 2024 throughout the year.
Cost side: crude oil low shock, petroleum support weakened
Crude oil: International crude oil continued to be weak in the second half of the year, in July-September due to the weak global economic recovery, OPEC + production cuts were not implemented as expected, Brent crude oil fell from $ 66 / barrel to a low of $ 58 / barrel in September; in October, although the Middle East geo-tensions rebounded to $ 72 / barrel, but the surplus supply is expected to resume in November-December, and fell to close to $ 60 / barrel at the end of the year, and the cost side of mixed diphenyl support continues to weaken.
Petroleum: Domestic petroleum supply was stable in the second half of the year. Supply was abundant to suppress prices, the average price of petroleum in the second half of the year fell by 6.9% compared to the first half, and crude oil rebounded slightly to 6,600 yuan / ton in December, but the overall cost support for mixed diphthalene was limited.
Supply side: Release of new capacity
In the second half of the year, the domestic mixed diphenyl supply pattern reversed. Before July, the market continued its partial tightness in the first half, and Yulong Petrochemical Phase II plant went into production in August (about 1.2 million tons / year). With the release of new equipment in Ningbo, Yantai and other places, the total domestic production capacity exceeded 15 million tons per year, and the industry’s start-up rate rose from 72% to 78%. On the import side, the third quarter import window continued to open, and the monthly import volume increased by 15%, and the inventory of the East China port climbed from 300,000 tons to a high level of 420,000 tons. Although the partial refinery overhaul after October, the start-up rate fell to 62%, but under the new capacity domination, the supply in the second half of the year still increased by 8.5%, and the market shifted from tight balance to relaxation.
Demand side: PX support is limited
In the second half of the year, the MX-PX spread narrowed from 800 yuan / ton to 500 yuan / ton, and PX enterprises’ export activity decreased. Although the PX plant was slightly replenished in the fourth quarter due to the cost recovery, there was no new PX production capacity throughout the year, and the demand for mixed diphenyl increased by only 3.2%, which is weaker than in the first half.
Mixing: In the second half of the year, the demand fell by 1.5% year-on-year due to the improvement in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the upgrading of gasoline quality (the proportion of mixed diphenyl mixed from 12% to 11%).
Mixed Diphenyl Market Outlook for 2026:
Cost side: 2026 oil price low shock weak cost side support

While the supply-side surplus pattern will continue into the first half of 2026, the IEA forecasts an average global oil surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day, with U.S. shale oil expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to suspend production in the first quarter of 2026, but internal differences and insufficient idle capacity have led to limited regulatory effects, and the price center is likely to continue to move down. As well as the impact of OPEC+ policy regulation, the business agency predicts that the crude oil market as a whole will show a “low shock” trend in 2026.
Raw materials: steady growth in petroleum production, adequate supply of raw materials
With the continuous improvement of China’s refining capacity and the continuous release of downstream market demand for petroleum, China’s petroleum production continues to grow steadily. Data show that China’s petroleum production in January-November 2025 is about 73.95 million tons. The main production areas of domestic petroleum are Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning, Zhejiang and other provinces, with Shandong Province accounting for about 35%. Provides important raw material security.
Domestic petroleum production is expected to grow slightly in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of about 0.6% to 1%, which will lay a solid foundation for the supply of toluene.
Supply: expected increase
In 2026, the pace of expansion of domestic mixed diphenyl production capacity accelerated, Hengli Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining, Huajin Arami and other leading enterprises’ refining integrated supporting aromatic hydrocarbons units, concentrated in the second half of the year 26, mainly concentrated in Bohai and East China, the two regions jointly contributed more than 70% of the new production capacity. According to statistics, by the end of 2025, the total domestic mixed diphenyl production capacity has reached 15 million tons / year, and the capacity scale in 2026 will break through 16.6 million tons / year, an increase of 10% year-on-year.
Demand: Stable and rising
Domestic mixed diphenyl demand in 2026 will show a pattern of “steady growth in the core area, compression in the traditional area, replacement in the emerging area”, the overall demand growth rate will moderately increase compared to 2025, the expansion of PX industry and emerging applications will become the core driving force, and the demand for oil mixing and traditional solvents will continue to be weak.
PX field: PX demand will grow steadily in 2026, the company’s data show that in 2026, domestic PX is expected to add 3.6 million tons of new production capacity, focusing on the second half of production, the annual capacity growth rate of 6%, the corresponding mixed diphenyl demand will increase to 8.8 million tons, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year.

Mixing field: Mixing demand is still facing multiple suppression in 2026. With the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to rise to 45%, the growth rate of domestic gasoline consumption slowed to 1.5%, and the proportion of mixed diphenyl in mixing is further reduced to 11%.
Solvents and other areas: Solvents will remain stable but structurally differentiated in 2026. Due to the tightening of VOC emissions control, the growth rate of demand for conventional mixed diphenyl in the field of traditional coatings and pesticides continues to slow down. However, high-purity mixed diphenyl (purity above 99.8%) Due to the environmental advantages, the proportion of applications in high-end coatings and environmentally friendly solvents has increased to 20%, and the price is 15%-20% higher than conventional products. In addition, the demand for new energy battery solvents, pharmaceutical intermediates and other emerging fields has grown rapidly, and the average annual growth rate is expected to reach 7%, becoming an important supplement to the demand for solvents.
Future Market Forecast:
In the short term: the supply side of the domestic new production capacity has not been released, the industry start-up rate is maintained at 75% -80%, the low inventory level in the East China port supports the price; in the import side, the Asia-American arbitrage window is gradually opened, the import volume or slight growth, but it is difficult to change the supply and demand balance pattern. Unilateral market conditions are difficult, and the spot market is expected to be dominated by range shocks, with price fluctuations ranging from 5500 to 5700 yuan / ton.
In the long term: Hengli, Shenghong and other new production capacity will be concentrated in the second half of 2016, but the environmental protection policy will strengthen to push some small and medium-sized production capacity out, to compensate for the supply pressure. On the demand side, the release of PX new production capacity led to mixed diphenyl demand to grow by 7.6% year-on-year, becoming the core driving force; the proportion of high-purity mixed diphenyl in the high-end solvent field is increasing, and the emerging demand is weak in the traditional field. degree, crude oil price trends and environmental policy enforcement efforts.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid continued to rise in December, with a price of 2750 yuan/ton as of December 30th, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the price of 2550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 7.84%.

The acetic acid market continued to rise strongly in December. Although some manufacturers have restarted their equipment within the month, unplanned equipment has reduced load, coupled with slow recovery of production in Jiangsu, the operating rate of acetic acid is still relatively low. At the same time, downstream demand purchasing has created a good market trading atmosphere, and enterprise inventory continues to decline. Manufacturers have a strong mentality of supporting prices, and under the leadership of suppliers, acetic acid prices continue to rise.
The raw material methanol market is experiencing strong fluctuations. As of December 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2200 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3.53% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2125 yuan/ton. The low inventory in the methanol port market provides support for prices. The operating rate in the mainland market remains high, with downstream purchases of essential needs being the main focus. The room for price increases is limited, and there is a game of supply and demand in the market. The methanol market continues to fluctuate and consolidate.
Market forecast: Business analysts believe that there are still maintenance plans in the supply side acetic acid market, and enterprise inventories may continue to decline. Downstream stocking operations before the Spring Festival are expected, and the market trading atmosphere is optimistic. There is strong support from the market, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to rise next month. Specific attention should be paid to downstream follow-up situations.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in December. As of December 29th, the average price of maleic anhydride offers was 5112.50 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 2.85% from 5262.50 yuan/ton on December 1st.

In terms of supply, the maleic anhydride market continued to decline in mid to early December, and the bidding prices of Wanhua continued to fall. The transaction situation was poor, which limited the support for the maleic anhydride market. The prices of the main maleic anhydride factories continued to fall, and coupled with downstream digestion of early raw material orders, new order signings were limited; In late December, as the maleic anhydride market fell to its annual low point, there were lockdowns in major production areas, and there were reports of supply side production cuts. The weak consolidation of the maleic anhydride market was the main trend. As of December 29th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong Province is around 4800 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 4400 yuan/ton.
Upstream: The price of pure benzene in the Shandong region fluctuated in December. On December 1st, the price was 5254.33 yuan/ton; On December 29th, the price was 5268.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% from the beginning of the month. Recently, the shipment sentiment of Shandong refined pure benzene has been cautious, and the price is mainly stable. The transaction volume on the spot market in East China is average, and the paper goods negotiations are average. The main focus is on closing multiple orders within the month. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China remained stable at 5300 yuan/ton.
The n-butane market fluctuated downward in December, with Saudi CP prices rising in December, but the naphtha market falling. As of December 29th, the n-butane price in Shandong was around 4570 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The weak consolidation of unsaturated resin market in November was mainly due to the decline in raw material side maleic anhydride prices and limited cost support; In addition, the sluggish terminal demand at the end of the year and the maintenance of essential downstream procurement have limited support for unsaturated resin.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that currently, domestic maleic anhydride has fallen to an annual low point, and some manufacturers have engaged in closing operations; Wanhua’s auction transaction has improved; The main downstream unsaturated resin procurement of maleic anhydride is in urgent need, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market may have an upward trend in the near future.

In 2025, the domestic acetone market will enter a period of deep adjustment, and the market price will show a weak pattern of “fluctuating downward and continuous bottoming out” throughout the year. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, as of the end of 2025, the annual cumulative decline of the domestic acetone market reached 32.37%, and the price continued to decline from the high of 5992 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. At the end of the year, the mainstream market quotation in East China had fallen to around 4050 yuan/ton, reaching a market low in nearly six years. The significant decline this time is the inevitable result of multiple factors such as supply-demand mismatch, weakened cost support, and negative feedback in the industrial chain during the industry expansion cycle, which has had a profound impact on the upstream and downstream industrial ecology of acetone.

The price trend of domestic acetone market in 2025 can be divided into three clear downward stages, with a continuous and gradually expanding decline throughout the year. The first stage is the “slow downward period” from the beginning of the year to the end of the second quarter. Due to the slower than expected demand recovery after the Spring Festival, the market price gradually fell from 6300 yuan/ton in January to 5500 yuan/ton at the end of June, with a cumulative decline of 12.69% over the past six months. The market trading is mainly driven by rigid demand, and traders are cautious. The second stage is the “accelerated decline period” in the third quarter, during which the traditional “Golden September” peak season was missed, coupled with the concentration of imported cargo at the port causing inventory to rise. Prices quickly fell to 4800 yuan/ton, a single quarter decline of 12.73% in the third quarter, and the industry experienced widespread losses for the first time. The third stage is the “low-level oscillation period” in the fourth quarter, with prices fluctuating narrowly within the range of 4000-4300 yuan/ton. Although there are signs of stabilization in this stage, it was affected by insufficient support from supply and demand fundamentals. At the end of the year, it finally closed at 4050 yuan/ton, and the cumulative decline for the whole year was officially fixed at 32.37%.
Supply side: Concentrated release of production capacity combined with import supplementation, setting a loose supply pattern
In 2025, the domestic acetone industry is still at the end of its high-speed expansion cycle, and the concentrated release of new production capacity has become the core source of pressure for the supply side. According to statistics, the net production capacity of acetone in China will increase by 510000 tons per year in 2025, with a total production capacity exceeding 4.48 million tons per year. Among them, a company in Shandong with 200000 tons per year and a company in Zhejiang with 60000 tons per year were successfully put into operation from the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, directly leading to a 15% -20% month on month increase in market supply in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the progress of phasing out outdated production capacity did not meet expectations, with only a total of 100000 tons/year of outdated production capacity being eliminated by Yanshan Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical throughout the year, which has limited relief effect on the supply side. The continuous replenishment of the import market has further intensified the pattern of loose supply. In 2025, the import volume of acetone will remain high throughout the year. In December alone, the import volume of ships and cargo from East China ports reached 50000 tons, of which 26000 tons have successfully arrived at the port and 24000 tons are still in transit. The port inventory has stabilized at a relatively high level of 24000 tons, effectively filling the temporary gap in domestic supply. Even though some domestic phenol ketone plants have entered the traditional maintenance season and the operating rate has dropped to the second lowest point of 65% this year, the maintenance cycle is generally short (15-20 days), and companies have already stocked up before the maintenance, which has not fundamentally changed the fundamental situation of oversupply.

Demand side: downstream weak transmission, insufficient support in core consumer sectors
The continuous weakness of downstream demand for acetone has led to a general supply-demand imbalance pressure in core downstream industries, and the procurement demand for acetone has only remained at the level of essential demand. As the largest consumer area of acetone, the bisphenol A industry is still in an expansion period in 2025. However, due to weak demand from downstream polycarbonate and epoxy resin industries, its operating rate remains low, and the procurement of acetone is only replenished according to demand, making it difficult to form an effective driving force. Although its consumption proportion remains stable at around 36%, the absolute demand growth rate has slowed down to 0.8%. The second largest downstream MMA industry using acetone cyanohydrin method also showed weak performance, affected by the slower than expected expansion of the new energy photovoltaic module and high-end display industry, resulting in a significant decline in the growth rate of demand for acetone compared to previous years; The MIBK industry, on the other hand, has seen a price drop of 300 yuan/ton compared to November due to the intensification of its own supply-demand contradiction. Downstream demand for acetone has been further weakened due to strong willingness to lower prices. In addition, the traditional solvent industry has been affected by the tightening of environmental policies and the impact of alternative products, resulting in a continuous decline in demand. The weak performance of multiple industries has formed a cumulative effect, leading to a lack of incremental momentum in the demand side of the acetone market.
Cost side: Weakening of raw material prices and significant weakening of cost support
For acetone production enterprises, non integrated enterprises are most severely impacted, with continuous losses leading to a passive decrease in operating rates and a gradual concentration of market share towards integrated enterprises. By 2025, the vertical integration rate of domestic acetone production capacity has increased to 71%. Integrated enterprises have significantly stronger risk resistance capabilities due to their advantages in pipeline transportation and logistics costs, as well as their ability to hedge upstream and downstream profits. However, the overall industry profitability level is still inevitably declining.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the domestic acetone market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern at the beginning of 2026, with limited upward potential for prices. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants is expected to slightly increase, coupled with the concentration of imported cargo in transit at the port by the end of 2025, port inventory may climb to 28000 to 30000 tons, further highlighting the pressure of loose supply; On the demand side, the operating rates of core downstream industries such as bisphenol A and MMA are difficult to substantially improve, and the solvent industry still relies mainly on on-demand procurement, lacking incremental support on the demand side; On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and propylene markets are expected to experience narrow fluctuations, making it difficult to form effective cost support. The resistance to price decline mainly comes from the reluctance of traders to sell at low levels. It is expected that spot prices in East China will fluctuate within the range of 4050-4100 yuan/ton.
Overall, the cumulative decline of 32.37% in the domestic acetone market in 2025 is a concentrated reflection of the supply-demand imbalance during the industry expansion cycle. In the short term, the industry will still face profit pressure, and companies need to focus on inventory control and cost management; In the long run, with the optimization of industry structure and improvement of supply and demand pattern, the acetone market is expected to gradually return to a rational operating range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3693 yuan/ton, and the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3693 yuan/ton, with stable prices.

At present, the average factory price of processed potassium sulfate and Mannheim 50% powder potassium sulfate is 3700 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; Mannheim’s 52% potassium sulfate powder has an average factory price of 3950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. Although the manufacturer continues the previous quotation, overall sales continue to be in a loss state. Due to factors such as high prices of raw materials such as potassium chloride and sulfuric acid, as well as difficulties in source procurement, the operating rate of enterprise facilities is generally not high, and some enterprises have suspended production or only maintained the lowest level of operation.
Despite the intention to increase the price of potassium sulfate, downstream factories have not accepted it, resulting in a temporary stability of market prices. There is basically no inventory in the factory, and most of the previous orders are in the process of shipment. Xinjiang Luo Potassium 52% powder potassium sulfate is supplied to fixed customers for previous orders, with a station price of 3600 yuan/ton this week.
Prediction: The trading volume of potassium sulfate market is lower than expected, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 752 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%. On December 11th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 778 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 44.43% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 30.10% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 690-780 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 760-870 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2100-2200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). There has been no change in the supply and demand pattern this week, and the supply remains loose. Downstream alumina has shown moderate enthusiasm for entering the market recently, and the market is still in a stalemate, with more demand for caustic soda. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period. Short term domestic alumina prices have fluctuated slightly, with a price range of around 2700-2850 yuan/ton.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak this week, and downstream buyers in China have been purchasing on demand. There will be no positive support for the Shandong market next week, and demand has not substantially improved. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 28th to December 5th (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China first increased from 2115 yuan/ton and then fell to around 20755 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.89% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.64%. The narrow decline in port methanol inventory in the first half of the week, coupled with the expected improvement in market inventory, has boosted market sentiment, and the overall port methanol market is mainly operating strongly. As the weekend approaches, downstream inventory is high and purchasing enthusiasm is gradually declining, with methanol market mainly weak.

As of the close on December 5th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2113 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2121 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2069 yuan/ton. It closed at 2077 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 41 yuan or 1.94% from the previous trading day’s settlement. Trading volume 1004115, open position 872092, daily increase position -62591.
On the cost side, the recovery of coal demand is weak, inventory levels continue to rise, prices fluctuate weakly, and cost support is weak and stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, the MTO device has a strong load, and traditional downstream winter season restrictions limit production, making it difficult for demand to increase. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
Supply side, equipment maintenance; The overall loss exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 4th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5-90.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
Future forecast: With the rising operating rate of the methanol industry in the later stage, the supply of spot goods in mainland China is expected to increase. Business Society’s methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market will still be weak.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and rise in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the price of isooctanol was 6566.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 10.36% compared to the price of 5950 yuan/ton on November 1st. Partial enterprises have resumed maintenance of their isooctanol equipment, resulting in an increase in the operating load of isooctanol facilities. The operating rate of isooctanol is 80%, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; The price of propylene fluctuates and rises, while the cost of isooctanol increases; In November, the supply of isooctanol increased and the cost rose. The support for the rise of isooctanol increased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose.
The cost of raw material propylene has risen
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the price of propylene was 6180.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.02% from the price of 6058.25 yuan/ton on November 1st; The price of propylene has increased by 4.92% from 5890.75/ton on November 7th. In November, propylene prices rebounded and rose, raw material prices increased, and the cost of isooctanol increased. The support for the rise in isooctanol prices has increased.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices first fell and then rose
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the DOP price was 7009.16 yuan/ton, which first fell and then rose compared to the DOP price of 7009.16 yuan/ton on November 1st, and increased by 2.31% compared to the DOP price of 6950.83 yuan/ton on November 17th. The cost of DOP has increased, and the price of DOP has risen. In November, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises has slightly increased, and the operating rate has risen to 70%. The production of DOP has increased, and the demand for isooctanol has increased, which has increased the support for the rise in isooctanol prices.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, the price of propylene has fluctuated and risen, the price of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the rise of isooctanol has increased. In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has increased to 80%, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; In terms of demand, DOP enterprises have seen a slight increase in production, resulting in an increase in DOP output. However, the demand for isooctanol still remains supportive. In the future, the cost of isooctanol will rise, coupled with an increase in supply and a rebound in demand. The downward pressure on isooctanol will weaken, and the upward support will increase. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

Since mid October, the domestic sulfuric acid market has entered a period of rapid growth. According to monitoring data from Business Society, since October 20th, the sulfuric acid market has increased by over 50%, and in November it has increased by 28.7%. The average price in the East China market is 98% at 967 yuan/ton, with factory prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reaching 1200 yuan/ton, and quotes in Shandong also around 850 yuan/ton. Overall, it is the result of the resonance of multidimensional factors such as cost, supply, and market sentiment, and there is significant differentiation in different process routes and regional markets.

From the supply side, the maintenance of domestic sulfuric acid plants in November involved an annual processing capacity of about 21.38 million tons, with intensive maintenance in core production areas in Central and East China. Major acid companies in Shandong, Liaoning, and other regions also stopped for maintenance, resulting in a significant contraction in regional supply.
From a cost perspective, the sharp rise in sulfur prices has become the core driving force, with cost inversion forcing price increases. Sulfur is the core raw material for sulfuric acid production (about 0.33 tons of sulfur are consumed to produce 1 ton of sulfuric acid). In November, domestic sulfur prices saw a significant increase, with the price of imported bulk pellets along the Yangtze River rising by more than 10% within the month, and an increase of up to 120% compared to the beginning of the year. The global sulfur supply pattern has undergone drastic changes, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has imposed an export ban, Kazakhstan’s export volume has declined, and the international supply gap has expanded; Combined with the strengthening of pricing power in the Middle East and panic buying by countries such as Indonesia/India, domestic port inventory has dropped to 2.2 million tons (below a reasonable level). Under cost transmission, it directly drives up the price of sulfuric acid passively; At the same time, the price of pyrite is synchronously high, further strengthening the cost support of mineral acid.
From the demand side, coastal factories have abundant export orders, and some sulfuric acid resources are flowing into the international market, further squeezing domestic supply. Under the tight balance of supply and demand, acid companies generally have low inventory levels and even adopt a “limited shipment” strategy, providing confidence for price increases. Phosphate fertilizer is the largest downstream of sulfuric acid. Although the operating rate of monoammonium phosphate/diammonium phosphate is only 50% -55%, enterprises maintain essential procurement during the winter storage cycle, and some phosphate fertilizer enterprises use sulfuric acid to replace high priced sulfur, driving the demand for smelting acid.
Regional price differentiation: The factory price of 98% smelting acid in Central China has risen to 940-1000 yuan/ton (a monthly increase of over 13%), while the ex factory price of 98% ore acid in Shandong is 900-940 yuan/ton (a monthly increase of over 12%). However, due to the concentration of smelting acid production capacity in Northwest and Southwest China, the increase is slightly lower than that in core production areas.
In the future, sulfur prices remain at a high level and equipment maintenance is still ongoing. The price of sulfuric acid may remain stable and slightly strong, but downstream resistance is increasing and policies may regulate sulfur prices. The subsequent increase is likely to slow down; In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the pace of capacity release after the recovery of international sulfur supply and the completion of acid enterprise maintenance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market saw a slight increase in November 2025, with an average price of 16780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, representing a monthly increase of 0.42%.

On November 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 103.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.54% from the highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29) during the cycle, and an increase of 39.09% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of November, lead prices continued to fluctuate weakly in October, with range fluctuations. Affected by the recovery of macro sentiment and the rebound of downstream procurement in the middle of the month, lead prices rebounded slightly, with spot prices reaching a maximum of 17500 yuan/ton. In the latter half of the year, lead prices came under pressure again, falling for a while due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand, and then stabilizing.
supply side
In the field of primary lead, the maintenance work of smelters in central and northern China has been successively completed, and the production has shown an increasing trend compared to the previous period. However, the current supply of lead concentrate is in a tight situation, and processing fees continue to operate at low levels, which to some extent restricts the release space of production.
In terms of recycled lead, production capacity is gradually recovering, but the supply of waste batteries is relatively tight. In addition, the combined impact of environmental policies has limited the growth of recycled lead production.
Demand side
The market demand for lead-acid batteries presents differentiated characteristics: the order volume in the energy storage battery field maintains steady growth; The demand for matching car starting batteries also remains stable; However, the replacement market for electric bicycle batteries has shown weakness. In addition, high lead prices have had a restraining effect on downstream purchasing intentions. In terms of exports, due to the impact of overseas tariff adjustments and anti-dumping measures, the export volume of lead-acid batteries continues to decline, with limited support for lead prices.
Inventory end
The explicit inventory of global lead ingots has shown a slight decrease, while the social inventory in China has increased. However, the overall inventory level is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years, which provides some bottom support for prices.
Prediction of future trends
The lead price is likely to maintain a range oscillation trend. Due to the increase in supply, weak demand performance, and uncertainty in the macro environment, lead prices still face certain downward pressure. However, with current inventory at a low level and cost support, the decline in lead prices will be limited to some extent.