According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market recently (9.1-9.9) fell first and then rose, with a slight overall increase. As of September 9th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 15232 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from 15146 yuan/ton on September 1st, with a low point of 14773 yuan/ton during the cycle. On the one hand, raw material prices have slightly increased, and on the other hand, downstream tire production has remained stable, supporting the demand for natural rubber. Natural rubber prices have slightly increased due to cost and demand support.

Recently, the weather in Thailand and Vietnam’s production areas has been poor, and some areas in Yunnan Province have been affected by seasonal leaf fall disease, which has led to a certain degree of obstruction in the supply of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad, resulting in a slight increase in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of September 9th, the price of Thai glue is 69.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 67.20 baht/kg on August 30th; As of September 9th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 14100 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the price of 14000 yuan/ton on August 30th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of September 1, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 455200 tons, continuing to decline slightly.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has maintained stable production, facing the urgent demand support of the natural rubber market. As of September 6th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 2nd to 6th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 17300 yuan/ton to 17866 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.28% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 4.28%. The domestic aggregated MDI market saw a wide rise during the week, with tight supply on site and suppliers reluctant to sell. Downstream demand also entered the market, resulting in tight prices for aggregated MDI goods.

On the supply side, the 400000 ton MDI plant of Wanhua Europe resumed operation on September 3, while the 1.1 million ton MDI plant of Wanhua Ningbo has not yet resumed operation and is in a parked state. BASF’s facility in Belgium, Dow’s facility in Germany, and Covestro’s facilities in Spain and Germany are all operating at low load.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has fluctuated and risen. As of September 6th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8534 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is experiencing a slight increase. As of September 6th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10675 yuan/ton. The overall cost of aggregated MDI has not changed significantly.

On the demand side, the demand remains stable and follows up. Recently, the buying momentum has gradually increased, and there have been many inquiries, resulting in stable actual transactions.

According to future forecasts, it is reported that due to a significant increase in export demand and slower than expected equipment recovery, a large northern manufacturer’s MDI distribution channel has sold out all planned sources of goods in the first ten days of September. Recently, the MDI market has remained tight, and it is expected that the MDI market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11750/ton, a decrease of 2.08% in price.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have been weak and falling this month, with some manufacturers remaining stable and market demand falling short of expectations. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and downstream shipments are mainly based on orders, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

On August 30th, the average market price in East China was 263510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 262500-264500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 263500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

The Shanghai Futures and Tin Futures experienced a consolidation in the early trading range, with a slight increase in the near to far month basis difference today; The market saw a slight increase during the second trading session. At the close of the day, the Shanghai Wuxi 2410 main contract closed up 0.19%.

Refineries’ willingness to hold prices has loosened, and some shipments have remained stable. From the current market perspective, due to the traditional off-season for consumption and the still high market prices, the demand in the terminal industry is still suppressed. In the short term, we will continue to observe and wait, and the number of orders received is not large.

In terms of trading today, I heard that small brands are offering a discount of around 200 yuan/ton for September, with a discount of around 200 yuan/ton for Yunzi Tou and a discount of around 500 yuan/ton for September. Yunxi is offering a discount of around 500 yuan/ton for September.

Recently (8.15~8.28), the market for butadiene rubber has rebounded. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 28, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 15040 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.72% from 14500 yuan/ton on August 15. The price of raw material butadiene has risen slightly at a high level; Shunding rubber production has increased; Downstream tire production has slightly increased. The supply price of butadiene rubber has been gradually raised recently, and as of August 28th, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber for PetroChina Northeast Sales Company is 15000 yuan/ton.

Recently (8.15~8.28), the price of butadiene continued to rise slightly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene was 12656 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86% from 12425 yuan/ton on August 15th.

Recently (8.15~8.28), some of the preliminary maintenance equipment of domestic butadiene rubber plants has been restarted, and the overall production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased.

On the demand side: With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has maintained a stable and positive trend, and the production of all steel tires has rebounded compared to the previous period. The demand is facing the urgent support of the butadiene rubber market. As of August 23rd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.8%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly increase, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will slightly rise; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased, with an expected increase in supply in the later stage; Recently, downstream tire companies have seen a slight rebound in production, which provides some support for Shunding Rubber. Overall, the Shunding Rubber market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations at high levels in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1940 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the weekend was 1911 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.49. On August 25th, the baking soda commodity index was 126.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.22% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 43.70% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1400-1500 yuan/ton. Due to poor downstream demand, it is expected to operate weakly in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1810 yuan/ton.

Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has declined. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3437.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% from the early week price of 3462.5 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 9.78%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and low fluorite inventory

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The rectification action is coming to an end in August, but the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. However, the import of fluorite from Mongolia has a significant impact on the northern fluorite market, and the trend of fluorite.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fluctuated at a low level, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating weakly, with some units still being shut down recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and the domestic fluorite market is sluggish.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, market production demand weakens. In addition, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the fluorite market is weak and difficult to change.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and there are many negative factors. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will fluctuate at a low level in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 19th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the reference average price of 2293 yuan/ton on August 13th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market prices have fallen this week. As of August 19th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2020-2045 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2050 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 2040 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 2035 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, both supply and demand in the urea market have been weak. On the supply side, the urea market supply decreased this week compared to last week. In terms of demand, there has been a decrease in agricultural and industrial demand, with a focus on maintaining essential needs. Downstream compound fertilizers and melamine have stable operating rates and market conditions, and are cautious in purchasing urea, often purchasing at low prices.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the urea market is weak and downward, and the market is not optimistic. In the absence of an increase in demand, it is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China maintained stable operation this week. As of August 16th, the average market price in East China was 14100 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 14100 yuan/ton on August 16th. There was no increase or decrease during the week, but a year-on-year decrease of 25.27%.

This week, the TDI market is in a state of consolidation and operation, and the market is in a stalemate. The enterprise quotation follows the market trend, and the sales situation is average. The downstream wait-and-see attitude is obvious. In order to stimulate sales, there are signs of loosening in the TDI market, and the actual transaction center has slightly shifted downwards.

The upstream toluene market continues to decline, and the overall market atmosphere is bearish, putting pressure on the price of toluene to decline. On the supply side, with the increase of port cargo, the supply is relatively loose, and the overall negative impact on the market is significant. Recently, prices have continued to decline.

In terms of future analysis, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market trading is stable, and the supply side benefits have been exhausted. There is currently no new positive support in the market, and it is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester filament has declined this week. Currently, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, POY (150D/48F), offer prices of 7600-7800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity), offer prices of 9100-9400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F), offer prices of 8100-8300 yuan/ton.

In early August, the polyester factory began a new round of promotions, with prices for polyester filament reduced compared to before, offering discounts ranging from 100-200 yuan/ton. The increase in inventory pressure in polyester factories is the most important reason for promotions, as the overall inventory in the polyester market is concentrated between 11-24 days. Secondly, in terms of raw materials, the PTA internal price has dropped from the highest point of 6110 yuan/ton to the current 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 510 yuan/ton; The internal price of ethylene glycol has dropped from the highest of 4820 yuan/ton to the current 4596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan/ton. The decline in raw material prices has provided polyester factories with greater profit margins, which has also prompted them to lower prices and offer discounts.

Overall, the recent market trend of polyester filament has shown a downward adjustment in prices, and the future development of the market will be influenced by various factors, including raw material prices, market supply and demand, export situation, and policy environment.