On March 4th, the market for n-propanol in Shandong Province surged, with a daily price increase of about 600 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10.4%, and a three-day increase of 12.75%. Affected by the international situation, concerns about costs and potential supply disruptions have dominated the n-propanol market, coupled with factory reluctance to sell, resulting in a broad upward trend in the n-propanol market.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
International Energy and Macro Situation: Implicit Driving of Price Upward
Currently, the global energy geopolitical situation remains complex, with a decline in shipping efficiency in key energy channels, driving up international energy and chemical logistics costs, and increasing market risk aversion to supply disruptions. The concern about supply risk has become an important implicit support for the n-propanol market.
Cost side support: Strong cost support for crude oil ethylene transmission
International crude oil is operating at a high level due to macroeconomic disturbances, driving up the cost of ethylene, a raw material for n-propanol. The current cost support is strong, and the profit margin of enterprises is significantly driven by raw material prices, becoming the core driving force for this round of price increases.
Supply and demand pattern: tight supply, downstream resumption of work resonance
On the supply side, the inventory of Shandong’s n-propanol market is at a medium low level, and imports are affected by the continuation of trade policies and the rise in international supply costs, resulting in limited import replenishment and a tight overall domestic supply pattern. On the demand side, downstream industries such as coatings, inks, and pharmaceutical intermediates are gradually resuming work after the holiday, and the replenishment of essential inventory is steadily released. Good supply and demand transmission further supports price strength.
Future prospects
In the short term, influenced by the international energy situation, the pattern of cost support and tight supply will continue, and the market situation is likely to remain strong; In the long run, it is necessary to pay more attention to factors such as on-site construction, raw material costs, and the sustainability of downstream demand.

1、 Current price trend

spot price
At the beginning of the month, it fluctuated around 6300 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, with the rise of crude oil costs and the strengthening of downstream resumption expectations, it gradually rebounded to above 6400 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, it was reported at 6411 yuan/ton (the benchmark price of Shengyi Society), up about 1.8% from the beginning of the month, showing an overall trend of first suppression and then rise, with a strong range.
Main Contract:
Following the resonance of spot prices, it fluctuated around 6300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and quickly rose in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, it was reported at 6470 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2.7% compared to the beginning of the month. Futures prices were slightly higher than spot prices, reflecting the market’s optimism towards short-term trends.
Recent contracts:
The volatility is more intense, with multiple ups and downs within the month, following the rhythm of the main contract as a whole, reflecting short-term financial games and emotional changes.
2、 Main basis rate
Since February, the basis rate has fluctuated narrowly around the zero axis, mostly within the range of -2% to+3%. On February 12th and 21st, it rebounded to 2.59% and 1.96% respectively, and turned negative again at the end of the month. Futures slightly increased in price compared to spot, indicating a close linkage between futures and cash, and the market’s pricing for cost increases and resumption of work expectations is relatively sufficient.
Long term average: As of February 27, 2026, the 180 day average basis rate of propylene is 2.73%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 2.49%. The current basis rate is within a reasonable repair range and has not shown extreme deviation.
Overall, the fluctuation of the main basis rate of propylene in February accurately reflects the rise in costs, changes in supply and demand patterns, and the evolution of market expectations, providing important references for judging the relationship between the present and future market trends.
3、 Core driver
1. Cost side: The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to Brent crude oil hitting a high of $83 per barrel this month, up about 4.2% from the beginning of the month, driving up the cost of propane raw materials and providing strong support for propylene prices.
2. Supply side: The operating load of domestic propylene plants remains at 78.44%, with a slight decrease of 0.30% in the weekly cycle ratio. The maintenance of PDH plants continues, and the pace of releasing new production capacity slows down. The market commodity volume remains stable and there is no centralized supply pressure.
3. Demand side: The operating rates of downstream PP, octanol, and acrylonitrile have increased by 3-5 percentage points compared to the previous period, and the resumption rate of packaging, film, plastic weaving and other fields has exceeded 85%. The demand for replenishment of essential inventory is gradually released, supporting spot transactions, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is gradually recovering.
4. Futures side: The average daily trading volume of the main contract for propylene futures in February increased by 12.3% month on month, and the holding volume increased by 8.7% month on month. The preference of funds for the chemical sector has increased, and the price has reflected positive expectations in advance, forming a traction for spot trading.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the range oscillation will continue to be strong, with a core range reference of 6350-6650 yuan/ton. Key focus: crude oil trend, downstream resumption progress, equipment maintenance plan, and basis repair rhythm.
Investment side: Upstream PDH and refining enterprises benefit from price increases, while downstream product enterprises face cost pressures. They can track price transmission through the Business Society Stock Connect and lock in the target beneficiaries.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, the overall market supply exceeds demand, downstream demand is insufficient, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of market: Currently, the DMF market has a loose supply side and overcapacity. The total domestic DMF production capacity has increased from 910000 tons/year in 2021 to 1.77 million tons/year in 2025, an increase of over 94%. However, downstream demand growth is slow, leading to a long-term “oversupply” in the market. On the supply side, there is a serious overcapacity. The total domestic DMF production capacity has reached 1.77 million tons/year (2025 data), while the industry operating rate has been maintained at around 40% for a long time, and actual demand is far below production capacity, resulting in a long-term “oversupply” in the market. There has been no new capacity investment from 2025 to 2026, and multiple planned projects have been put on hold. The suspension of capacity expansion has eased further downward pressure, but the overcapacity pattern has not changed.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will remain stable with small fluctuations, and the overall market will mainly operate steadily.

The nitrile rubber market saw a slight upward trend in February. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the price was 16250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% from 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In February, the cost support for nitrile rubber weakened, and the Shunze nitrile plant was shut down for maintenance. The production of nitrile rubber slightly decreased, and the pressure on the supply side slightly eased; Pre holiday downstream rubber hoses and insulation foam industries are stocking up for the Spring Festival, providing essential support for the nitrile rubber market and driving a slight increase in nitrile rubber prices; Downstream production is low after the holiday, and market transactions are weak. The overall market for nitrile rubber is weak and temporarily stable. As of February 27th, the offer price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 in East China is between 17200 and 17600 yuan/ton; Lanhua Nitrile 3305E offers 16200~16300 yuan/ton; Russia offers 2665 for 15400~15600 yuan/ton.
In February, the production of nitrile rubber plants in China slightly decreased, and some plants still have maintenance plans from March to April.
In February, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile showed a weak decline. As of February 27th, the price of butadiene was 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.06% from 10533 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of February 27th, the price of acrylonitrile was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.19% from 7666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
During the Spring Festival in February, the downstream production of nitrile rubber hoses in China saw a significant decline, and the recovery of production after the holiday was slow, resulting in weak demand support for nitrile rubber.
Market forecast: Business Society’s nitrile analyst believes that the current cost support for nitrile rubber is weak; Low downstream operating levels; The supply of nitrile rubber is relatively sufficient, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate weakly in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has risen after the holiday. As of February 26, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95% from 5250 yuan/ton on February 23.

Supply side: The market for maleic anhydride continues to rise after the holiday: The bidding prices of Wanhua have continued to rise after the holiday, and the transaction situation is good, which supports the maleic anhydride market. The prices of the main factories for maleic anhydride have increased, but the downstream unsaturated resin is still in the early stage of resuming production, and new orders are limited. As of February 26th, the solid anhydride market in Shandong Province operates around a factory price of 5000 yuan/ton, while the liquid anhydride market operates around a factory price of 4750 yuan/ton.
Upstream: After the holiday, the n-butane market slightly fell, with Saudi CP prices rising by $20 to $540/ton in February. As of February 26th, the price in Shandong was around 4520 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The unsaturated resin market has resumed work gradually after the holiday, and the market situation is mainly wait-and-see, with limited support for unsaturated resin.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the main downstream unsaturated resin of maleic anhydride is gradually resuming work; There is currently no inventory pressure from maleic anhydride manufacturers, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market may have an upward trend in the near future.

In early February 2026, the overall trading volume of Shandong propylene glycol market remained stable with light trading.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 9th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 5933 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month but down 5.8% year-on-year.
driving factors
In terms of supply, some production facilities are shut down, but there is ample supply and inventory is above average, resulting in slow destocking and mainly stabilizing prices.
In terms of demand, February falls on the eve of the Spring Festival, which is a traditional off-season for the market. Downstream factories are gradually shutting down and taking holidays, with only essential procurement. The market trading activity has decreased, and support is insufficient. It may gradually rebound after the Spring Festival.
In terms of cost, the price of epoxy propane, the main raw material, is under pressure and falling, with weak cost support, making it difficult to have a strong boost in the short term.
On February 9th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 7800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88% from the beginning of the month.
Outlook for the future market
In the short term, it is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily before and after the Spring Festival holiday, and the possibility of significant price fluctuations is relatively small. Observe the resumption progress and replenishment demand of downstream industries after the holiday.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased. As of the weekend, the average price of fluorite in China was 3425 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% from the beginning of the week price of 3418.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.29%.

Supply side: Fluorite manufacturers on holiday increase, spot supply decreases
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased. However, the domestic fluorite market as a whole presents a weak supply and demand situation, with a stalemate and wait-and-see attitude. Due to the impact of low temperature weather and the Spring Festival holiday, some mines are restricted from starting production. At the same time, the current market price has not met the psychological expectations of most mining enterprises and beneficiation plants, and the fluorite market.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market average
This week, the domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions of China is 12500-13000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, while hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock. Despite being in the traditional stocking stage of downstream refrigerant and other industries, the high prices have suppressed procurement demand, thereby affecting the digestion rhythm of upstream raw materials. Fluorite prices have not changed much.
The overall stability and operation of the terminal refrigerant market have been maintained, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry have been strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, and downstream channels mainly focus on stocking up for essential needs. Industry inventory has dropped to a low level in nearly two years; The supply side is constrained by the quota system, coupled with a highly concentrated industry share pattern, and market confidence remains stable. However, caution is still held towards upstream procurement, with a focus on maintaining stable prices in the fluorite market.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, the number of fluorite enterprises taking holidays has increased, and downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand. Some purchases will continue until after the Spring Festival. Overall, the stable price situation of the fluorite market is the main factor in the short term.

According to the market analysis system, the domestic toluene market fluctuated upwards in January 2026, breaking the weak pattern of December and achieving an increase. Cost side support and pre holiday replenishment became the core drivers, and the increase at the end of the month narrowed due to insufficient demand follow-up. From January 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price increased from 5170 yuan/ton to 5450 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 5.42% during the period. The overall operating range has significantly shifted upward compared to the previous month.

Mid to mid month: The domestic toluene market entered a volatile upward trend. As a core production area, Shandong was driven by the continuous recovery of crude oil prices, and its main refineries were the first to raise their prices. In mid month, the mainstream price range rose to 5300-5350 yuan/ton, an increase of over 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; The synchronous rise in East and South China regions, coupled with the upward adjustment of Sinopec’s quotation, has gradually enlivened the market trading atmosphere, and the focus of negotiations has steadily shifted upwards. The high point for the month reached 5480 yuan/ton at one point.
Late March: The market entered a high volatility trend, with quotations in East and South China maintaining high levels. However, after the end of the terminal stage of replenishment, the purchasing willingness declined, highlighting the dominant characteristics of market demand. Although refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices, the pace of shipments slows down. In some regions, to promote transactions, slight discounts are offered, and prices stabilize after a slight correction, maintaining a high volatility overall. Finally, the end of month price closed at 5450 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: The market trend this month presents distinct stage characteristics, with a rebound after a surge, but overall it still maintains a high position. At the beginning of the month, relying on tight supply, external market upward movement, and downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, the market opened a strong upward trend, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, with consecutive price increases and rapid price surges; In the middle of the month, with the strong linkage of downstream synthetic rubber futures and the hot atmosphere of spot trading, prices continue to hit new highs, and spot resources are scarce, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods; At the end of the month, with a significant increase in prices and a sharp rise in downstream raw material costs, profits continue to be under pressure, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement has significantly declined. High priced transactions have been hindered, and the market has experienced a phase of correction. However, due to the lack of obvious loose support from the supply side, the magnitude of the correction is limited, and the overall operation remains at a high level. Prices have risen sharply during the month. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was $67.37 per barrel.
Demand side:
According to the market analysis system, as of January 29th, the price of xylene by Sinopec Sales Company has remained stable, with a current price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price will be uniformly implemented in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China; The main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, with normal product sales, and the current price has increased by 300 yuan/ton compared to December 30th.
In terms of international markets, as of January 28th, the closing prices of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region were 898-900 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 923-925 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 31 US dollars/ton from the end of last month. The strengthening of the PX market has boosted the overall atmosphere of the domestic aromatic hydrocarbon sector, and the PX futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen synchronously. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 7392 yuan/ton, an increase of 184 yuan/ton from the end of last month, forming a positive driving force for the toluene market.

Market forecast:
The current domestic toluene market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors: on the one hand, international crude oil prices remain high and volatile, with cost support still present, and the Asian PX market continues to strengthen. The overall atmosphere of the aromatic hydrocarbon sector is relatively warm, coupled with the tight supply of toluene in Shandong region and limited circulation of goods, which provides support for toluene prices; On the other hand, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches in downstream industries, companies are gradually entering a phase of shutdown and stocking up, and terminal demand is gradually entering a low season. The pace of resuming work and production after the holiday is not yet clear, and the market lacks sustained demand growth support. In addition, after the end of the month’s periodic replenishment of inventory, the market is dominated by immediate demand, and operators are cautious about pursuing higher demand.
Overall, the toluene market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term. Prior to the Spring Festival, prices are unlikely to experience a significant correction due to cost support and tight supply. After the holiday, it is important to focus on the trend of crude oil prices, downstream resumption of work and production progress, and the linkage performance of the PX market. These factors will become the core variables that dominate the subsequent market trends.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued its downward trend from last week, with a sluggish market performance. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 1.32%, with a slight narrowing of the decline. The main reason is due to the abundant supply of ammonia, which has led to a growing festive atmosphere and downstream shutdowns and load reductions, resulting in weakened demand. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2150-2350 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, this week’s supply has increased compared to last week. The main production areas in the north have stable output, while the supply of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei regions is stable. In Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions, the supply of equipment has resumed, and the amount of ammonia has increased. Although Shaanxi’s environmental protection has limited production, the surrounding supply is large, and prices in the northwest and Inner Mongolia regions are still showing a downward trend. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, large factories in Shandong Province have gradually adjusted their prices within the week, with the adjustment range generally in the range of 50 yuan. The market shows oversupply, and enterprises still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage. Supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown average performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Urea rose this week mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival and short-term downstream buying behavior, which may be difficult to sustain in the later stage. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase in urea was 1.15%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, mainly due to the impact of the expected resumption of plant work, and there are still supply risks in the market. However, there may be room for improvement in agricultural demand, and there are signs of a rebound in the operating rate of downstream products such as monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate. The game between supply and demand will strengthen in the later stage, and the market for feed ammonia may still maintain a range of fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market continued to rise this week. On January 19th, the market price of aniline was 8545 yuan/ton, and on January 23rd, it was 8745 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% during the cycle and a decrease of 3.61% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
This week, the aniline market continued to rise, with raw material pure benzene prices increasing multiple times. At the same time, aniline supply maintained low inventory, downstream demand entered the market, and supply side sales remained stable, actively pushing up prices. As of this Friday, the mainstream price of aniline in China has risen to 8700-8800 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: This week, the pure benzene market has been strong and rising. Refinery production reduction combined with import volume reduction has led to a decrease in pure benzene supply, and the fundamentals of pure benzene have also improved. Port inventories fell from a high level in the first week, and downstream demand for delivery has been boosted. The supply and demand have improved in stages, and the instability of the geopolitical situation has not been eliminated. The short-term market is mainly characterized by strong fluctuations.
3、 Future expectations
The current inventory status of the aniline market and downstream resistance to high priced raw materials have increased. It is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate after a short-term rise, and close attention will be paid to changes in raw materials and supply and demand in the future.