In 2025, the domestic acetone market will enter a period of deep adjustment, and the market price will show a weak pattern of “fluctuating downward and continuous bottoming out” throughout the year. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, as of the end of 2025, the annual cumulative decline of the domestic acetone market reached 32.37%, and the price continued to decline from the high of 5992 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. At the end of the year, the mainstream market quotation in East China had fallen to around 4050 yuan/ton, reaching a market low in nearly six years. The significant decline this time is the inevitable result of multiple factors such as supply-demand mismatch, weakened cost support, and negative feedback in the industrial chain during the industry expansion cycle, which has had a profound impact on the upstream and downstream industrial ecology of acetone.

The price trend of domestic acetone market in 2025 can be divided into three clear downward stages, with a continuous and gradually expanding decline throughout the year. The first stage is the “slow downward period” from the beginning of the year to the end of the second quarter. Due to the slower than expected demand recovery after the Spring Festival, the market price gradually fell from 6300 yuan/ton in January to 5500 yuan/ton at the end of June, with a cumulative decline of 12.69% over the past six months. The market trading is mainly driven by rigid demand, and traders are cautious. The second stage is the “accelerated decline period” in the third quarter, during which the traditional “Golden September” peak season was missed, coupled with the concentration of imported cargo at the port causing inventory to rise. Prices quickly fell to 4800 yuan/ton, a single quarter decline of 12.73% in the third quarter, and the industry experienced widespread losses for the first time. The third stage is the “low-level oscillation period” in the fourth quarter, with prices fluctuating narrowly within the range of 4000-4300 yuan/ton. Although there are signs of stabilization in this stage, it was affected by insufficient support from supply and demand fundamentals. At the end of the year, it finally closed at 4050 yuan/ton, and the cumulative decline for the whole year was officially fixed at 32.37%.
Supply side: Concentrated release of production capacity combined with import supplementation, setting a loose supply pattern
In 2025, the domestic acetone industry is still at the end of its high-speed expansion cycle, and the concentrated release of new production capacity has become the core source of pressure for the supply side. According to statistics, the net production capacity of acetone in China will increase by 510000 tons per year in 2025, with a total production capacity exceeding 4.48 million tons per year. Among them, a company in Shandong with 200000 tons per year and a company in Zhejiang with 60000 tons per year were successfully put into operation from the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, directly leading to a 15% -20% month on month increase in market supply in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the progress of phasing out outdated production capacity did not meet expectations, with only a total of 100000 tons/year of outdated production capacity being eliminated by Yanshan Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical throughout the year, which has limited relief effect on the supply side. The continuous replenishment of the import market has further intensified the pattern of loose supply. In 2025, the import volume of acetone will remain high throughout the year. In December alone, the import volume of ships and cargo from East China ports reached 50000 tons, of which 26000 tons have successfully arrived at the port and 24000 tons are still in transit. The port inventory has stabilized at a relatively high level of 24000 tons, effectively filling the temporary gap in domestic supply. Even though some domestic phenol ketone plants have entered the traditional maintenance season and the operating rate has dropped to the second lowest point of 65% this year, the maintenance cycle is generally short (15-20 days), and companies have already stocked up before the maintenance, which has not fundamentally changed the fundamental situation of oversupply.

Demand side: downstream weak transmission, insufficient support in core consumer sectors
The continuous weakness of downstream demand for acetone has led to a general supply-demand imbalance pressure in core downstream industries, and the procurement demand for acetone has only remained at the level of essential demand. As the largest consumer area of acetone, the bisphenol A industry is still in an expansion period in 2025. However, due to weak demand from downstream polycarbonate and epoxy resin industries, its operating rate remains low, and the procurement of acetone is only replenished according to demand, making it difficult to form an effective driving force. Although its consumption proportion remains stable at around 36%, the absolute demand growth rate has slowed down to 0.8%. The second largest downstream MMA industry using acetone cyanohydrin method also showed weak performance, affected by the slower than expected expansion of the new energy photovoltaic module and high-end display industry, resulting in a significant decline in the growth rate of demand for acetone compared to previous years; The MIBK industry, on the other hand, has seen a price drop of 300 yuan/ton compared to November due to the intensification of its own supply-demand contradiction. Downstream demand for acetone has been further weakened due to strong willingness to lower prices. In addition, the traditional solvent industry has been affected by the tightening of environmental policies and the impact of alternative products, resulting in a continuous decline in demand. The weak performance of multiple industries has formed a cumulative effect, leading to a lack of incremental momentum in the demand side of the acetone market.
Cost side: Weakening of raw material prices and significant weakening of cost support
For acetone production enterprises, non integrated enterprises are most severely impacted, with continuous losses leading to a passive decrease in operating rates and a gradual concentration of market share towards integrated enterprises. By 2025, the vertical integration rate of domestic acetone production capacity has increased to 71%. Integrated enterprises have significantly stronger risk resistance capabilities due to their advantages in pipeline transportation and logistics costs, as well as their ability to hedge upstream and downstream profits. However, the overall industry profitability level is still inevitably declining.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the domestic acetone market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern at the beginning of 2026, with limited upward potential for prices. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants is expected to slightly increase, coupled with the concentration of imported cargo in transit at the port by the end of 2025, port inventory may climb to 28000 to 30000 tons, further highlighting the pressure of loose supply; On the demand side, the operating rates of core downstream industries such as bisphenol A and MMA are difficult to substantially improve, and the solvent industry still relies mainly on on-demand procurement, lacking incremental support on the demand side; On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and propylene markets are expected to experience narrow fluctuations, making it difficult to form effective cost support. The resistance to price decline mainly comes from the reluctance of traders to sell at low levels. It is expected that spot prices in East China will fluctuate within the range of 4050-4100 yuan/ton.
Overall, the cumulative decline of 32.37% in the domestic acetone market in 2025 is a concentrated reflection of the supply-demand imbalance during the industry expansion cycle. In the short term, the industry will still face profit pressure, and companies need to focus on inventory control and cost management; In the long run, with the optimization of industry structure and improvement of supply and demand pattern, the acetone market is expected to gradually return to a rational operating range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3693 yuan/ton, and the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3693 yuan/ton, with stable prices.

At present, the average factory price of processed potassium sulfate and Mannheim 50% powder potassium sulfate is 3700 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; Mannheim’s 52% potassium sulfate powder has an average factory price of 3950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. Although the manufacturer continues the previous quotation, overall sales continue to be in a loss state. Due to factors such as high prices of raw materials such as potassium chloride and sulfuric acid, as well as difficulties in source procurement, the operating rate of enterprise facilities is generally not high, and some enterprises have suspended production or only maintained the lowest level of operation.
Despite the intention to increase the price of potassium sulfate, downstream factories have not accepted it, resulting in a temporary stability of market prices. There is basically no inventory in the factory, and most of the previous orders are in the process of shipment. Xinjiang Luo Potassium 52% powder potassium sulfate is supplied to fixed customers for previous orders, with a station price of 3600 yuan/ton this week.
Prediction: The trading volume of potassium sulfate market is lower than expected, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 752 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%. On December 11th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 778 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 44.43% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 30.10% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 690-780 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 760-870 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2100-2200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). There has been no change in the supply and demand pattern this week, and the supply remains loose. Downstream alumina has shown moderate enthusiasm for entering the market recently, and the market is still in a stalemate, with more demand for caustic soda. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period. Short term domestic alumina prices have fluctuated slightly, with a price range of around 2700-2850 yuan/ton.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak this week, and downstream buyers in China have been purchasing on demand. There will be no positive support for the Shandong market next week, and demand has not substantially improved. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 28th to December 5th (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China first increased from 2115 yuan/ton and then fell to around 20755 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.89% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.64%. The narrow decline in port methanol inventory in the first half of the week, coupled with the expected improvement in market inventory, has boosted market sentiment, and the overall port methanol market is mainly operating strongly. As the weekend approaches, downstream inventory is high and purchasing enthusiasm is gradually declining, with methanol market mainly weak.

As of the close on December 5th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2113 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2121 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2069 yuan/ton. It closed at 2077 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 41 yuan or 1.94% from the previous trading day’s settlement. Trading volume 1004115, open position 872092, daily increase position -62591.
On the cost side, the recovery of coal demand is weak, inventory levels continue to rise, prices fluctuate weakly, and cost support is weak and stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, the MTO device has a strong load, and traditional downstream winter season restrictions limit production, making it difficult for demand to increase. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
Supply side, equipment maintenance; The overall loss exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 4th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5-90.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
Future forecast: With the rising operating rate of the methanol industry in the later stage, the supply of spot goods in mainland China is expected to increase. Business Society’s methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market will still be weak.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and rise in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the price of isooctanol was 6566.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 10.36% compared to the price of 5950 yuan/ton on November 1st. Partial enterprises have resumed maintenance of their isooctanol equipment, resulting in an increase in the operating load of isooctanol facilities. The operating rate of isooctanol is 80%, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; The price of propylene fluctuates and rises, while the cost of isooctanol increases; In November, the supply of isooctanol increased and the cost rose. The support for the rise of isooctanol increased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose.
The cost of raw material propylene has risen
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the price of propylene was 6180.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.02% from the price of 6058.25 yuan/ton on November 1st; The price of propylene has increased by 4.92% from 5890.75/ton on November 7th. In November, propylene prices rebounded and rose, raw material prices increased, and the cost of isooctanol increased. The support for the rise in isooctanol prices has increased.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices first fell and then rose
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the DOP price was 7009.16 yuan/ton, which first fell and then rose compared to the DOP price of 7009.16 yuan/ton on November 1st, and increased by 2.31% compared to the DOP price of 6950.83 yuan/ton on November 17th. The cost of DOP has increased, and the price of DOP has risen. In November, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises has slightly increased, and the operating rate has risen to 70%. The production of DOP has increased, and the demand for isooctanol has increased, which has increased the support for the rise in isooctanol prices.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, the price of propylene has fluctuated and risen, the price of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the rise of isooctanol has increased. In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has increased to 80%, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; In terms of demand, DOP enterprises have seen a slight increase in production, resulting in an increase in DOP output. However, the demand for isooctanol still remains supportive. In the future, the cost of isooctanol will rise, coupled with an increase in supply and a rebound in demand. The downward pressure on isooctanol will weaken, and the upward support will increase. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

Since mid October, the domestic sulfuric acid market has entered a period of rapid growth. According to monitoring data from Business Society, since October 20th, the sulfuric acid market has increased by over 50%, and in November it has increased by 28.7%. The average price in the East China market is 98% at 967 yuan/ton, with factory prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reaching 1200 yuan/ton, and quotes in Shandong also around 850 yuan/ton. Overall, it is the result of the resonance of multidimensional factors such as cost, supply, and market sentiment, and there is significant differentiation in different process routes and regional markets.

From the supply side, the maintenance of domestic sulfuric acid plants in November involved an annual processing capacity of about 21.38 million tons, with intensive maintenance in core production areas in Central and East China. Major acid companies in Shandong, Liaoning, and other regions also stopped for maintenance, resulting in a significant contraction in regional supply.
From a cost perspective, the sharp rise in sulfur prices has become the core driving force, with cost inversion forcing price increases. Sulfur is the core raw material for sulfuric acid production (about 0.33 tons of sulfur are consumed to produce 1 ton of sulfuric acid). In November, domestic sulfur prices saw a significant increase, with the price of imported bulk pellets along the Yangtze River rising by more than 10% within the month, and an increase of up to 120% compared to the beginning of the year. The global sulfur supply pattern has undergone drastic changes, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has imposed an export ban, Kazakhstan’s export volume has declined, and the international supply gap has expanded; Combined with the strengthening of pricing power in the Middle East and panic buying by countries such as Indonesia/India, domestic port inventory has dropped to 2.2 million tons (below a reasonable level). Under cost transmission, it directly drives up the price of sulfuric acid passively; At the same time, the price of pyrite is synchronously high, further strengthening the cost support of mineral acid.
From the demand side, coastal factories have abundant export orders, and some sulfuric acid resources are flowing into the international market, further squeezing domestic supply. Under the tight balance of supply and demand, acid companies generally have low inventory levels and even adopt a “limited shipment” strategy, providing confidence for price increases. Phosphate fertilizer is the largest downstream of sulfuric acid. Although the operating rate of monoammonium phosphate/diammonium phosphate is only 50% -55%, enterprises maintain essential procurement during the winter storage cycle, and some phosphate fertilizer enterprises use sulfuric acid to replace high priced sulfur, driving the demand for smelting acid.
Regional price differentiation: The factory price of 98% smelting acid in Central China has risen to 940-1000 yuan/ton (a monthly increase of over 13%), while the ex factory price of 98% ore acid in Shandong is 900-940 yuan/ton (a monthly increase of over 12%). However, due to the concentration of smelting acid production capacity in Northwest and Southwest China, the increase is slightly lower than that in core production areas.
In the future, sulfur prices remain at a high level and equipment maintenance is still ongoing. The price of sulfuric acid may remain stable and slightly strong, but downstream resistance is increasing and policies may regulate sulfur prices. The subsequent increase is likely to slow down; In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the pace of capacity release after the recovery of international sulfur supply and the completion of acid enterprise maintenance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market saw a slight increase in November 2025, with an average price of 16780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, representing a monthly increase of 0.42%.

On November 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 103.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.54% from the highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29) during the cycle, and an increase of 39.09% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of November, lead prices continued to fluctuate weakly in October, with range fluctuations. Affected by the recovery of macro sentiment and the rebound of downstream procurement in the middle of the month, lead prices rebounded slightly, with spot prices reaching a maximum of 17500 yuan/ton. In the latter half of the year, lead prices came under pressure again, falling for a while due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand, and then stabilizing.
supply side
In the field of primary lead, the maintenance work of smelters in central and northern China has been successively completed, and the production has shown an increasing trend compared to the previous period. However, the current supply of lead concentrate is in a tight situation, and processing fees continue to operate at low levels, which to some extent restricts the release space of production.
In terms of recycled lead, production capacity is gradually recovering, but the supply of waste batteries is relatively tight. In addition, the combined impact of environmental policies has limited the growth of recycled lead production.
Demand side
The market demand for lead-acid batteries presents differentiated characteristics: the order volume in the energy storage battery field maintains steady growth; The demand for matching car starting batteries also remains stable; However, the replacement market for electric bicycle batteries has shown weakness. In addition, high lead prices have had a restraining effect on downstream purchasing intentions. In terms of exports, due to the impact of overseas tariff adjustments and anti-dumping measures, the export volume of lead-acid batteries continues to decline, with limited support for lead prices.
Inventory end
The explicit inventory of global lead ingots has shown a slight decrease, while the social inventory in China has increased. However, the overall inventory level is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years, which provides some bottom support for prices.
Prediction of future trends
The lead price is likely to maintain a range oscillation trend. Due to the increase in supply, weak demand performance, and uncertainty in the macro environment, lead prices still face certain downward pressure. However, with current inventory at a low level and cost support, the decline in lead prices will be limited to some extent.

The price of ethylene glycol decreased in November
The price of ethylene glycol has been falling continuously in November, and the price center has shifted downwards. Recently, the price has started to stop falling. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4056.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% from the average price of 4220.83 yuan/ton on November 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the basis of spot contracts for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) has weakened significantly recently due to weak market trading sentiment and low willingness of traders to hoard goods. As of November 27th, the daily basis trading range for this week’s contract is+8 to+12; As of the closing, the contract basis price for next week is+9 to+11. The contract basis price for December is+16 to+18, and the contract basis price for January is+28 to+31.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3770-3880 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of November 26th, the recent negotiations and transactions for ship to land prices have been around $460-464 per ton.
The main reasons for the decline in ethylene glycol in November are:
The price of ethylene glycol fell in November, mainly due to the expected release of new domestic production capacity and the accumulation of port inventory due to the rebound of imports; The increase in market trading supply and decrease in demand expectations, coupled with the concentration of port arrivals, have accelerated the decline in the market data.
The main reasons for the recent halt in the decline of ethylene glycol are:
In terms of imports, Iran has expectations of weakened winter supply. On November 24th, there were market rumors that two sets of ethylene glycol plants with a total annual output of 3.3 million tons in Iran would shut down, and another four sets with a total annual output of 7.25 million tons of ethylene glycol plants have plans to shut down, expected in late November or early December.
In terms of domestic supply, the weekly production of ethylene glycol has decreased compared to the previous period, the synthesis gas method has increased its negative load reduction, the integration has slightly reduced its negative load, and there is a maintenance plan for the ethylene method unit in the later stage. In the near future, the expected maintenance of existing coal based facilities has increased, and the price of ethylene glycol is expected to stabilize and stop falling.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of ethyl acetate on November 26th was 5370.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% compared to yesterday’s price. On November 26th, the ethyl acetate index of Shengyi Society was 73.06, up 0.23 points from yesterday, down 50.73% from the highest point of 148.30 points during the cycle (September 27, 2021), and up 23.06% from the lowest point of 59.37 points on September 7, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

The domestic ethyl acetate plant operates stably, with a relatively high overall opening rate and slow downstream consumption. It mainly enters the market on demand. Ethyl acetate manufacturers are negotiating shipments, and the raw material acetic acid market continues to rise. There is a strong intention for ethyl acetate to rise. Driven by costs, the ethyl acetate market has been adjusted upwards.
Looking at the future, the ethyl acetate plant is operating steadily, with high inventory pressure on the supply side and limited downstream purchases. The market is mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, while the upstream acetic acid market is strong, providing support for the ethyl acetate mentality. It is expected that the short-term ethyl acetate market will narrow down, and specific attention will be paid to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation in the future.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market prices have risen. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8466.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.96% compared to November 1st.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The price of raw material propylene has increased this week. Strong cost support has led to a shift in the center of gravity of epoxy propane. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6098.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Fluctuations in the supply side have affected the temporary supply tension of epoxy propane. Recently, Wanhua and Xinyue’s epoxy propane have reduced their negative load, and Wanhua has outsourced epoxy propane, further increasing the tight supply situation in the market. The tight supply situation has led to an increase in the price of epichlorohydrin.
Demand side: The downstream demand side has a decent demand for purchasing epoxy propane, with high purchasing enthusiasm and smooth shipment of epoxy propane. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the later stage.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the raw material side propylene market price support is strong, downstream demand side has high purchasing enthusiasm, and epoxy propane shipments are smooth. At present, some epoxy propane enterprises are operating at a reduced load, resulting in tight market supply. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable and strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.