Commodity index: on April 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 94.30, up 0.1 point from yesterday, down 11.98% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and up 13.77% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)
According to the data, since mid March, according to the local environmental protection policy, the water treatment plants in Gongyi district have stopped production. After stopping and opening, the plants did not resume production on a large scale until mid April. As far as April is concerned, the water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan first stopped production for half a month, then resumed production on a large scale in the middle of the month, and then stopped production again due to environmental factors in the week near the end of the month. From the trend, polyacrylamide continued to maintain a small volatility market, domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) polyacrylamide cation price quoted 15433 yuan / ton on the 25th, after a small adjustment to 15416 yuan / ton, and then a small increase to 15433 yuan / ton, showing a small “V” trend. Manufacturers continue to stop production, resulting in some of the tight supply, so there are small fluctuations in the market, in fact, inventory is relatively sufficient at the end of the month, demand is tepid.
Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and the shortage of supply, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, and the domestic price has reached the highest point in recent five years: on February 18, the mainstream quotation was 12100 yuan / ton, and on March 10, the daily quotation was 16500 yuan / ton, up 4500 yuan / ton, with a range of 36%; However, from the middle of March, affected by the lower upstream price, the price was reduced by 250 yuan / ton on the 15th, and the mainstream market quotation was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. On the 26th, Shanghai Secco reduced its price by 300 yuan / ton to about 16000 yuan / ton; In April, the domestic mainstream market price of acrylonitrile continued to decrease by 10%, from 14400 yuan / ton to 14250 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a weekly decrease of about 1%. The raw material cost of polyacrylamide decreased again.
Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In the first ten days of April, the civil gas market of Shandong Province continued to go up, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in the latter half of the year, the price of liquefied gas for civilian use was basically stable after falling 5-6%. It is obvious from the trend chart that there is a large contrast between the rising market in late April and early April. Although the price is down a part compared with the first ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is at a relatively high level, the atmosphere of downstream entering the market has warmed up, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the inventory is mostly at a controllable level. There are still negative factors in the market, international crude oil is in a relatively weak position, and the market demand is expected to weaken due to the rising weather and temperature. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on the 25th of this week, the mainstream price of LPG in Shandong market was 4153.33 yuan / ton, while on the 30th it was 4066.67 yuan / ton, down about 2%.
Downstream demand: from 2021 to now, especially after the year, from the middle of February to the middle of March, the price of upstream raw materials has increased significantly, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost of polyacrylamide. As a downstream product, polyacrylamide has increased, resulting in a substantial increase in the procurement cost of downstream enterprises. In the early years after, the water treatment project has not yet recovered, and the demand is weak, so the market of polyacrylamide is not good. During the shutdown period from mid March to mid April, although the inventory is consumed, the demand does not change much; So far this month, the demand is still tepid, and the market change of polyacrylamide this month is purely affected by the inventory of each factory when the production is stopped.
Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the domestic economy is stable and improving, but there are many uncertain factors in the global macro economy under the external influence, especially the recent epidemic situation has a serious impact on Southeast Asia. In addition to the obvious impact of inflation on the market of bulk raw materials this year, the overall demand of overseas markets is weakening, which has a very obvious impact on multi industries, and then transmits to the production links of multiple industries; Polyacrylamide, as an environmental protection water treatment product, is closely related to the environmental protection requirements of many industries, and its demand will be greatly affected. Secondly, under the state’s environmental protection objectives and regulatory requirements this year, the environmental protection inspection in various places is strict. As the main production area of water treatment products, Gongyi District of Henan Province also stopped production for rectification for about one month. However, the impact of inventory is not very big, especially after the resumption of production in the middle of the month, the supply is sufficient. In the future, if the production of related industries is affected, the demand for water treatment projects will also decrease. Towards the end of the month, the cost of acrylonitrile will be reduced by 1%, liquefied gas will also be reduced by 2%, and the production cost of polyacrylamide will be reduced. In the future, the market will be stable in the short term, and the cost may decrease in the medium term. However, if the demand improves, it will stimulate the industry. It is reported that although most of the manufacturers in the main production areas resume production, some of them still stop production from time to time. It is continuously suggested that the relevant manufacturers should start from the overall situation, improve the production technology level as soon as possible, meet the requirements of environmental protection, and maintain the long-term survival and development of the enterprise.