Aluminum prices fluctuated strongly in June

Aluminum prices were relatively strong in June. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20786.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the market average price of 20303.33 yuan/ton on June 1.
The overseas aluminum prices remained firm in June, which is an important support for the upward trend of domestic aluminum prices. At present, aluminum prices maintain a strong external and weak internal pattern, and the domestic import window is relatively closed. The main trading macro factors in the market have relatively weakened the influence of fundamental factors.
There is a high probability of horizontal fluctuations in aluminum prices in July
From a fundamental perspective, currently in the off-season of traditional consumption in China, domestic demand is relatively weak, and aluminum prices are relatively high, resulting in insufficient downstream purchasing and receiving enthusiasm; On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is unlikely to decrease during the southwest rainy season, but the probability of maintaining a weekly output of 844000 tons is relatively high, and the supply is relatively stable. From a cost perspective, the stabilization of raw material alumina has led to short-term strength, which may provide relative support for aluminum prices in the near future. Low level sideways trend in social inventory: Currently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low and in a sideways trend this week. As of June 30th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 462000 tons, a decrease of 46000 tons from June 5th.
Macro variables in July
1. Changes in Federal Reserve policies and the implementation of equivalent tariffs in the United States.
2. Geopolitical factors, Middle East direction, and dynamic changes in the Russia Ukraine situation.
Future expectations

In summary, the market trading logic tends to be macro oriented, and may return to fundamental considerations in the later stage. Currently, social inventory is low and sideways, and with off-season demand, the upward space for aluminum prices has narrowed, and the probability of sideways fluctuations has increased. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate around 20000 yuan in July.