According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the average price of acetic acid was 2880 yuan/ton, which was the same as the acetic acid price of 2880 yuan/ton on March 7th, and increased by 2.86% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market fluctuated and consolidated, with enterprise quotations rising first and then falling. On the supply side, the main factories in the northern region have delayed maintenance, leading to an increase in shipping sentiment among enterprises. Downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and there is resistance to high prices. On site trading is poor, and under the game of supply and demand, the price of acetic acid has been adjusted downward.

As of March 14th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On March 7th/ On March 14th/ rise and fall

South China region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ -100

North China region/ 2840 yuan/ton/ 2775 yuan/ton/ -65

Shandong region/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2820 yuan/ton/ -30

Jiangsu region/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 2700 yuan/ton/ -50

Zhejiang region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 2900 yuan/ton/ -50

The upstream methanol market is fluctuating. From March 7th to 14th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2669 yuan/ton to 2656 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.47%. At the beginning of the week, some traders restocked and production companies limited their shipments, driving up the domestic methanol market. However, downstream consumers still have resistance to high prices, and their willingness to purchase is average, which suppresses the market and weakens the market negotiation atmosphere. Overall, prices are running weakly.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On March 14th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 4920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.43% compared to the price of 5095 yuan/ton on March 7th. The upstream acetic acid market fluctuated, and the cost of acetic anhydride had limited positive effects. Enterprise quotations were lowered, and the demand side followed suit with weakness. Market transactions were poor, and acetic anhydride prices were weak during the week.

In terms of future predictions, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of acetic acid in the market is stable, with companies actively shipping and downstream entry based on demand. There is a game of supply and demand in the market. However, if the supply side plans to maintain the equipment on schedule, the utilization rate of production capacity in the market may decrease. It is expected that the acetic acid market will remain stagnant in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to equipment changes and downstream follow-up situations.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 979 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 993 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.43% and a year-on-year increase of 23.82%. On March 13th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 840 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 40.00% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 40.47% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 960-1050 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 3050-3150 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The overall increase in caustic soda prices is mainly due to manufacturers stopping for maintenance, which has eased the pressure on caustic soda inventory. But with the rise in prices, downstream consumers are resistant, and downstream alumina mainly purchases caustic soda on demand.

Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has risen and the operating market has improved. Enterprises are undergoing maintenance, inventory pressure has been alleviated, and downstream demand is still acceptable. However, with the rise in prices and downstream resistance, the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China continued to decline this week. As of March 7th, the average market price in East China was 12150 yuan/ton, and on March 3rd, the average price was 12500 yuan/ton. It fell 2.8% within the week and 30.17% year-on-year.

This week, the TDI market continued to weaken and the decline slowed down. During the week, Shanghai’s major factories lowered their guidance prices, and the market’s trading center shifted downwards in the atmosphere of price decline. The TDI market has sufficient supply of goods, and downstream market entry is cautious, with a focus on essential needs. Traders’ quotes follow the market trend, with low-end quotes falling below 12000 yuan/ton. There are maintenance plans for the northwest unit, and the mentality of operators is slightly supported. TDI’s decline is slowing down.

Supply side: The TDI unit in Xinjiang is temporarily shut down, while other units are maintaining medium to high load operation, and the market supply is filling up quickly.

Cost wise: Upstream toluene has recently experienced a weak decline, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI price has fallen to a recent low, compressing corporate profits and limiting the room for further decline. It is expected that the TDI market will consolidate and operate after a short-term decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5613.33 yuan/ton, a narrow decrease from the beginning of the month price of 5630.00 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.30%. The main reason for the fluctuation in the price range of ethyl acetate is due to weak support from the supply side, poor downstream demand, and cautious mentality among industry players.

Market analysis: This month, the market for ethyl acetate fluctuated within a certain range. The overall utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity increased during the month, and the market supply was relatively sufficient. The upstream acetic acid price fell, and the negative impact of cost was felt. The mentality of ethyl acetate was not good, and the downstream side maintained a focus on demand. The trading atmosphere on the market was average, and under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate fluctuated narrowly throughout the month.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of February 28th, the price was 2800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.08% compared to the acetic acid price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market is weak and volatile, with weak cost support and lower profits for ethyl acetate.

Looking at the future market, the current price of ethyl acetate is running weakly and steadily, with lukewarm downstream support for the market. In the later stage, some enterprises plan to increase the load of ethyl acetate equipment, and the expected increase in on-site supply will increase the pressure on market supply. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to run weakly in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic BDO market continues to be weak. From February 1st to 28th, BDO prices fell from 8400 yuan/ton to 8285 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.36% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 12.12%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic BDO market saw a weak consolidation. The industry has a low capacity utilization rate and is experiencing long-term losses. The overall downstream load of the terminal has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials. Both the supply and demand sides are supported, and the supply side maintains a stable market mentality.

In mid month, the domestic BDO market remained weak and deadlocked. Approaching the settlement cycle, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with contract orders trading and weak spot negotiations.

At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market remained stagnant after a decline. At the beginning of the new cycle, the wait-and-see sentiment of industry players continues, and actual trading volume is light. The downstream demand follow-up is average, but in the later stage, new production capacity is put into operation and the enthusiasm of the cargo holders to operate is not high, and actual orders are negotiated for discounts. But there is some support on the supply side, and the supplier’s price control limits the downward space of the market.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased, while supply side support has increased. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has seen a narrow upward trend, with the strengthening of power restrictions in Inner Mongolia, accelerating the destocking of enterprises, and overall smooth shipments. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is experiencing a narrow consolidation. As of 10:00 am on February 28th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2625 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is fluctuating and consolidating, with methanol prices rising and BDO costs being influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the overall load of downstream industries has not significantly increased, and the incremental demand for raw materials is limited. And the expected storage and shutdown of some downstream PTMEG equipment in the future, as well as the expected storage of new BDO production capacity, may increase supply and demand pressure. Under the cost pressure of most downstream industries, there is severe bargaining when entering the market. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Future forecast: Supply side support still exists, and the industry is experiencing long-term losses, indicating a continued stable market mentality among suppliers. However, there has been no significant change in the downstream industry load, and BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.

Zinc price in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the zinc price was 234838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the zinc price of 23730 yuan/ton on February 1st. In February, zinc prices fluctuated strongly within the range and rebounded.

At the macro level, the Trump administration recently announced the resumption of tariffs on imported goods, raising concerns in the market about the escalation of global trade frictions. This macro bearish trend continues to affect the commodity market, particularly exerting significant pressure on the upward potential of zinc prices.

Supply and demand side

This month, the profit window for zinc ore imports has closed, resulting in relatively light offers and transactions for imported minerals. However, driven by price advantages, refineries still prefer to choose domestically produced minerals as their main raw materials. In addition, according to domestic mining trends, some lead-zinc mines that were previously shut down due to reasons are expected to resume production in March, which will lead to a continuous increase in supply from the mining end. However, at the current level of processing fees, refineries are still in a loss making state, so the industry has a strong bullish sentiment towards processing fees.

On the demand side, there is support. As downstream galvanized sheet and die-casting zinc alloy enterprises speed up production after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), stock replenishment is expected to continue to strengthen, forming a strong price support effect.

Although the operating load of galvanized and die cast zinc has significantly increased compared to the previous period, due to the slow resumption of production by downstream enterprises, domestic social inventory continues to increase, and the turning point for destocking is later than previously expected. Galvanized and die cast zinc, as the main consumption areas of zinc, should have driven an increase in demand for zinc due to the rebound in operating load, thereby reducing social inventory. However, the actual situation is that downstream enterprises have a slow pace of resuming production, which directly leads to a slower than expected recovery on the demand side. Therefore, although the operating load on the production side has increased, the demand side has not kept up in a timely manner, resulting in the accumulation of domestic social inventory.

Future forecast

Market outlook for March: The expectation of increased processing fees has strengthened, refinery profits have increased, production pressure has increased, demand recovery is slow, and zinc prices may mainly fluctuate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 980 yuan/ton on February 27th, and 880 yuan/ton on February 1st. The market price of ammonium sulfate has increased by 11.36% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has continued to rise this month. The operating rate of coking enterprises has remained stable this month, and the operating rate of their own facilities has increased. The demand for downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, downstream pellet factories are actively restocking, and market trading is heating up. Ammonium sulfate manufacturers mainly offer high prices, while distributors actively operate. The urea market price has surged this month, which is favorable for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. As of February 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 970 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 980-1010 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from December 2, 2024 to February 17, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. In February, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate increased significantly, with the largest increase being 2.76% in the week of February 10th.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been strong and rising recently. At present, the market demand is stable, the trading atmosphere is good, and manufacturers are mainly pushing prices. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, the market’s cautious attitude increases. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices will remain stable with a moderate upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China in China experienced a significant decline after rising in February. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 14000 yuan/ton. On February 26th, the TDI price was 12950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 25.14%.

In February, the TDI market in East China was greatly affected by the supply side and news. At the beginning of the month, there were continuous positive news from the supply side, and the filling of goods in the market was slow. Mainstream major manufacturers raised prices one after another, boosting market confidence and pushing prices up at high levels. Subsequently, the high prices continued until mid month. In the latter half of the month, due to high prices and compressed profit margins for downstream products, there was a strong resistance to high prices, resulting in fewer actual TDI transactions. Under sales pressure, TDI prices began to decline. The price has fallen to around the beginning of the year, and some downstream companies have entered the market on dips. TDI prices have risen, waiting for market feedback.

Supply side: Fujian Wanhua’s 360000 tons/year TDI plant is operating at medium to high loads. BASF’s 160000 ton/year TDI plant in Lishui, South Korea is undergoing a three week maintenance. The 150000 ton TDI unit of Hanhua in South Korea is undergoing routine shutdown and maintenance for approximately one month.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated within a range in February. As of February 25th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from the price of 6620 yuan/ton on February 1st. Within the month, downstream companies will maintain their essential inventory and actual transactions will be limited. The demand for oil blending industry in Shandong region is still good, driving the market atmosphere to recover. In South China region, due to low inventory, the market atmosphere is good, and the listing prices of main refineries are relatively firm. The overall market is stable, with a slightly strong performance. Later, with the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the sentiment of the toluene market was affected, and the market operated weakly, resulting in a slight decrease in prices.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI price has fallen to a low level, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved, indicating a turning point in prices. If the market continues to move smoothly in the future, it is expected that the TDI market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been weak recently. As of February 24th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.90% from the price of 6640 yuan/ton on February 17th.

On the supply side: The market supply is normal, and downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have seen an increase in production, with procurement mainly based on demand. As of February 24th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6200 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5900 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Recently, the overall price of n-butane has been on the rise, and as of February 24th, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Recently, unsaturated resin companies have been operating slowly, and there is a strong demand for purchasing unsaturated resins downstream, which has limited support for unsaturated resins. Currently, the procurement of maleic anhydride for unsaturated resins is limited.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that the downstream unsaturated resin of maleic anhydride is slowly declining, and coupled with the weak raw material market, unsaturated resin mainly maintains the essential demand for maleic anhydride, which has limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the main factories producing maleic anhydride maintain stable prices, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will experience narrow adjustments in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2599 yuan/ton and then rose to 2598 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.03% during the period, a month on month decline of 2.35%, and a year-on-year decline of 0.67%. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. The utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is still at a high level, and the traditional downstream is gradually recovering. Although downstream external procurement has boosted the mainland market at the beginning of the week, the downstream maintains rational procurement as the main focus, and the overall mainland market is weak and volatile.

As of the close on February 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2505, opened at 2550 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2558 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2538 yuan/ton. It closed at 2547 yuan/ton in the closing session, an increase of 8 yuan or 0.32% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 441101 lots, the position is 784503 lots, and the daily increase is -2025.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply has basically returned to normal levels. The enthusiasm for coal procurement in the downstream market is currently poor, with only a small amount of essential transportation being maintained, and traders and coal plants temporarily suspending procurement. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: increasing demand for acetic acid; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: There is currently no equipment fluctuation for chloride, and there is little change in operation. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment is greater than the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of February 20th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 366.50-367.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 111.00 to 112.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, there will be a sustained demand for shipments from mainland factories, while foreign ships will be concentrated at ports. In addition, with sufficient domestic trade replenishment, it will be difficult to clear inventory. Traditional downstream and MTO demand are expected to resume work, and supply and demand are expected to improve. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.