According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 30th to July 4th, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5661 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.64% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.35%. Supported by high costs, the pressure on ethanol costs has further deepened, and short-term on-site transactions are limited.

In terms of cost, the center of gravity of corn prices continues to shift upwards. At present, the average weekly price of corn in China is 2437 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, there is little fluctuation in the production of edible ethanol. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huanan has shut down, Jixian Plant has stopped feeding, Laha One Line production, Zhongke Green has shut down, and Jilin Dongfeng has shut down. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, from the perspective of demand, downstream chemical companies require essential procurement, downstream refineries deliver a small amount of low-priced goods, and most high-end transactions occur. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future market forecast, production enterprises have a clear willingness to raise prices, and short-term prices will remain firm. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term shutdown of factories will restore supply, and prices may remain stable in the short term.

The asphalt market rose first and then fell in June. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3625 yuan/ton on June 1st, and as of June 30th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3673 yuan/ton.

After the Dragon Boat Festival, crude oil rose sharply. Supported by the cost side, the asphalt market rose sharply in the first ten days of the year, and the asphalt market turned well under market competition and shipment. But there is a large gap between the north and the south, and the southern region is a national market depression affected by supply.
In the latter half of the year, as the trend of crude oil declined, the cost side support for asphalt faded, and the demand for asphalt was weak, suppressing the market’s upward sentiment and causing a decline in asphalt quotes.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the refinery plans to produce 2.47 million tons in July, and the maintenance of Dongming and Lanqiao has been postponed. In the second half of the year, although the expected increase in asphalt supply depends on the actual processing profit situation, the peak season increment still exists, but the overall demand performance this year is not good.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China experienced a weak decline in June. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 12266 yuan/ton. On June 27th, the TDI price was 11400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.07% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 20.65%.

In June, the TDI market in East China weakened from strong to weak, with prices continuing to fall. At the beginning of the month, the high-level supply of goods was not smooth, and intermediaries entered and exited quickly. In order to stimulate sales, TDI prices began to decline slightly. In the middle of the month, market maintenance and restart coexist, with relatively fast filling of market supply and sufficient supply. Due to strong supply and weak demand, downstream companies entered the market on dips, causing TDI to accelerate its decline. At the end of the month, the supplier raised prices, with some individual quotes slightly increasing, and the downstream acceptance rate was average.
Supply side: Shanghai facility resumes operation. Gansu is operating at medium to high load. The shutdown and maintenance of the 128000 ton/year TDI plant in Tokyo, Japan is expected to last for 2 months. There is a maintenance plan for the 360000 tons/year TDI plant in Fujian on June 5th, which will last for about 45 days.
In June, upstream toluene was greatly affected by oil prices and supply and demand. From June 1st to 27th, the domestic toluene market price rose from 5470 yuan/ton to 6097 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.05% during the period. Due to the shutdown and maintenance of some enterprises in the first half of the month, the market supply has been in a tight state. In the second half of the month, international oil prices fluctuated and rose, with toluene following suit.
Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current news side has limited support for the market, facing a low demand season and weak TDI market growth. As the end of the month approaches, close attention should be paid to the settlement prices of major companies, and it is expected that the TDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Aluminum prices fluctuated strongly in June

Aluminum prices were relatively strong in June. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20786.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the market average price of 20303.33 yuan/ton on June 1.
The overseas aluminum prices remained firm in June, which is an important support for the upward trend of domestic aluminum prices. At present, aluminum prices maintain a strong external and weak internal pattern, and the domestic import window is relatively closed. The main trading macro factors in the market have relatively weakened the influence of fundamental factors.
There is a high probability of horizontal fluctuations in aluminum prices in July
From a fundamental perspective, currently in the off-season of traditional consumption in China, domestic demand is relatively weak, and aluminum prices are relatively high, resulting in insufficient downstream purchasing and receiving enthusiasm; On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is unlikely to decrease during the southwest rainy season, but the probability of maintaining a weekly output of 844000 tons is relatively high, and the supply is relatively stable. From a cost perspective, the stabilization of raw material alumina has led to short-term strength, which may provide relative support for aluminum prices in the near future. Low level sideways trend in social inventory: Currently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low and in a sideways trend this week. As of June 30th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 462000 tons, a decrease of 46000 tons from June 5th.
Macro variables in July
1. Changes in Federal Reserve policies and the implementation of equivalent tariffs in the United States.
2. Geopolitical factors, Middle East direction, and dynamic changes in the Russia Ukraine situation.
Future expectations

In summary, the market trading logic tends to be macro oriented, and may return to fundamental considerations in the later stage. Currently, social inventory is low and sideways, and with off-season demand, the upward space for aluminum prices has narrowed, and the probability of sideways fluctuations has increased. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate around 20000 yuan in July.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from June 16 to June 23, 2025. On June 16th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6010 yuan/ton, and on June 23rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 6170 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66%. This week, the toluene market fluctuated and rose, international crude oil fluctuated and rose, and the toluene market followed suit with a significant increase. The supply in Shandong region is tight this week, and refinery quotations have generally been raised. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and trading is still acceptable. The market atmosphere in the East and South China regions is good this week, with downstream purchases made according to demand, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is still acceptable.

On the cost side, the overall crude oil market price closed higher, with the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $74.93 per barrel as of June 20th. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August contract is $77.01 per barrel. On the one hand, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to a tight supply of crude oil and a significant rise in the international oil market; On the other hand, the trade negotiations between China and the United States have made good progress, and coupled with the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, favorable factors have supported the international oil market, with the crude oil market mainly rising.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of June 23rd, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6200-6250 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On June 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7000 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. Compared to June 16th, it remains unchanged. As of June 20th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 873-875 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 898-900 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 44 US dollars/ton from June 13th.
Market forecast: The overall macro trend is relatively strong in the near future, with a significant increase in crude oil prices and an overall strengthening of fundamentals. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side has been relatively loose recently, and downstream demand is more rigid. The impact of supply and demand on the toluene market is relatively small in the near future, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue to maintain a stable, medium, and strong trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 877 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 857 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28% and a year-on-year increase of 7.66%. On June 19th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 787 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and up 31.61% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 780-890 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 930-970 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). During the week, the liquid alkali market in Shandong remained stable with small fluctuations, and there were no significant fluctuations in the supply side of the Shandong region. Alumina was mostly purchased on demand, and non aluminum deliveries were noticeably cautious. The main downstream purchasing prices were lowered, and there was no positive support for caustic soda prices.
Business Society analysts believe that the recent weak operation of caustic soda prices is supported by moderate downstream demand in China, which supports the consolidation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a consolidation operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose this week, with the overall price mainly declining. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6258.34 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6108.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.4%.
This week, the market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose, with the overall price mainly declining. The overall market situation of isopropanol is average, with good shipments from major factories in Shandong over the weekend and a slight increase in prices. The market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the mentality of industry players has been slightly boosted. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5950-6150 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu are around 6150-6200 yuan/ton.
Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price first fell and then rose this week, and the market stopped falling and rebounded. The prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have both rebounded, and cost support is still acceptable. It is expected that there will be limited volatility in the isopropanol market in the short term, with buying driven by strong demand. Pay more attention to changes in the raw material market.

The market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride remained stable this week. The mainstream ex factory price including tax is about 10700-10850 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 650 yuan/ton from last month. The price of raw material fluorite has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants is average. The focus of negotiations in the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is gradually shifting downwards, and it is expected that the market will mainly operate steadily and weakly in the later stage. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 13th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -6.31% from the beginning of this month.

On the raw material side, domestic fluorite prices have fallen this week, sulfuric acid prices have temporarily stabilized, and the cost side support of the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is weak. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 12th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3406.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the beginning of this month (3493.75 yuan/ton).
Demand side: The downstream refrigerant terminal demand is generally average, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the market still has a mentality of buying and lowering prices.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite will decline, and the demand for downstream refrigerants will be average. It is expected that the market for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will remain stable and weak in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly increased this week. From June 2 to June 9, 2025, the price of mixed xylene has decreased from 5750 yuan/ton to 5840 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57%. There are slight differences in the trend of various regions this cycle, with a slight downward adjustment in Shandong region and a slight upward adjustment in other regions, and the overall fluctuation range is limited. The Shandong region first rose and then fell during the week, with inquiries from downstream oil and chemical industries entering the market. Local refineries had good inquiries and shipments were relatively stable. The increase in quotes from major refineries in South China this week has led to an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market, resulting in a slight increase in market prices. The transaction situation in East China is good, with overall inventory declining and spot market prices slightly rising.

Cost wise: The crude oil market has fluctuated upward in this cycle. As of June 6th, the settlement price of the July contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $64.58 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August contract is $66.47 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of June 9th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5600-5750 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5750-5800 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5650-5800 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On June 9th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7000 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. An increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to May 30th. As of June 6th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 818-820 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to rise slightly, with some support for the cost of xylene. The recent sales situation of the supply room in the refinery is still good, overall stable. The demand side has been relatively rigid in recent times. There is no significant news impact on the supply and demand side, and it is expected that the xylene market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 885 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.74% compared to last year. On June 5th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 788 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 31.77% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 840-930 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 930-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2750-2850 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). During the week, the liquid alkali market in Shandong remained stable with small fluctuations. Alumina was mostly purchased on demand, while non aluminum deliveries slowed down significantly. The overall low alcohol alkali market was dominated by early order shipments, with no positive support for caustic soda prices.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable, and the domestic downstream demand has been average, supporting the consolidation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.