According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 30th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1667.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.92% from November 23rd at 1772.50 yuan/ton.
Cost side: Rising crude oil market supported by rising cost of petroleum coke
The expectation of OPEC+crude oil production reduction in the near future has supported the continuous rise in crude oil market prices. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $77.86 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.88 per barrel. On the one hand, OPEC+has the possibility of extending and deepening production cuts, mainly due to the organization’s concerns about weak global crude oil demand and member countries’ demands for high oil prices. Saudi Arabia may continue to implement additional production cuts, and the voluntary policy of reducing production by 1 million barrels per day may be extended until the second/third quarter of 2024. This news has boosted the crude oil market. On the other hand, US crude oil and gasoline inventories have decreased. As of the week ending November 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 817000 barrels, which to some extent supported international oil prices. Overall, supported by positive news recently, the crude oil market has shown an upward trend.
Supply side: Port inventory rising, pressure on refined petroleum coke shipments
Recently, ships importing petroleum coke have arrived at ports one after another, but domestic petroleum coke prices have continued to decline, sponge coke costs have been inverted, traders have a moderate shipping sentiment, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in ports has increased. The price of ground refined petroleum coke fluctuates, with limited downstream demand and average hoarding enthusiasm. Refinery shipments are under pressure, and trading is light. Refineries adjust prices based on changes in their own indicators.
On the demand side, the reduction in production of metallic silicon and electrolytic aluminum is mainly due to the rigid demand for petroleum coke
As of November 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 407, with an overall start-up rate of 55.83%, a decrease of 6 furnaces compared to the previous month. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decrease, continuing to be less in the south and more in the north. The cost of electricity prices in the southwest has increased, and the profits of silicon plants have been compressed. It is expected that further production reduction will occur next week; A small increase in the opening of furnaces in the northwest partially compensates for the decrease in supply in the southwest, while the overall supply slightly decreases. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.
Recently, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke has been average, with poor trading performance. The price of raw material petroleum coke continues to decline, and the downstream aluminum carbon and negative electrode markets have shown weak performance. They mainly purchase according to demand and maintain production, with limited support for calcined coke prices. In addition, the high inventory of medium sulfur calcined coke has led to an overall weak consolidation.
At present, the electrolytic aluminum market is declining, and as of November 30th, the price is 18643 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, with large operating capacity. In the southwest direction, Yunnan’s production reduction effect is gradually showing, and the output has significantly decreased. However, in terms of downstream demand, there is a seasonal weakening trend, but the possibility of a significant short-term weakening is not high. The overall market situation for aluminum carbon is weak, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a necessity.
Market forecast: Currently, the overall inventory of petroleum coke in the local refining market is high, coupled with weak downstream demand, and overall on-demand procurement is the main focus. But as the current price of locally refined petroleum coke continues to decline, downstream enterprises will replenish as needed, and it is expected that locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly consolidated in the near future.