Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in July, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of July 31, the average price offered by POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 17166.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.75% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of POM upstream formaldehyde, the rising atmosphere at the beginning of July continued to drive the demand of plate enterprises at the end of June, and the market atmosphere warmed up. With the sudden drop in the operation of plate factories in Shandong affected by the rainy weather, the demand continued to decline and the procurement capacity shrank rapidly. The formaldehyde Market in Shandong began to decline at a high level on the 6th. By mid month, the market reached equilibrium and the spot price began to return to stability. The mainstream market price in Shandong is 1300-1400 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the upstream raw material methanol market was sorted out at a high level, and it is expected that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong may be dominated by shock and decline.

The high level of upstream prices fell, and the cost side support of POM weakened. Since July, the domestic POM market has been mainly supported by the tightening of the supply side, and the supply of domestic enterprises is in short supply. At present, there are still enterprises or maintenance or forced to reduce the burden due to force majeure. At present, the delivery period of on-site orders is relatively prolonged, the on-site supply shortage strengthens the mentality of manufacturers, and the speculation atmosphere is still strong. In addition, manufacturers and merchants control shipments. At present, there is a strong willingness to report high on the site. Tianye Chemical M90 quoted a reference price of about 16100 yuan / ton for negotiation. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 17900 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. Shenhuaning coal mc90 is quoted at a reference price of about 17500 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. I heard that the on-site inquiry was significantly higher than the official price and increased frequently. After being forced to follow up a number of supply sources, downstream enterprises have significantly reduced their replenishment operations recently due to the increasing cost pressure.

Up,

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market trend is strong in July, the upstream formaldehyde price is generally high, and the POM cost support is acceptable. The supply in the venue is tight and the improvement of the pattern is limited, and the supply side continues to benefit the market. On the demand side, the terminal enterprises showed weakness in passive follow-up at the end of the month, with a small amount of replenishment to maintain production. Merchants have a positive attitude. At present, there is a deep shortage of goods in the venue. It is expected that the POM market may remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 8050 yuan / ton on July 30. Under the dual pressure of high raw material cost and flat demand in July, the domestic carbon black market performed flat this month, and the manufacturers mainly shipped.

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: in July, the price of coal tar rose first and then fell, and the overall fluctuation range is limited. After entering the middle and late July, the demand of deep-processing enterprises turned weak under the pressure of loss, and the positive support of coal tar price weakened. However, the price of coal tar did not decline significantly when coke enterprises had no inventory. At present, the performance of the domestic tire market is still in the doldrums, the manufacturers implicitly make profits and the shipment is not fast. The hot weather in summer is unfavorable for construction and the downstream market continues to be depressed. It is expected that the construction of tire enterprises will be difficult to improve in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the carbon black data division of the chemical branch of business society, the cost of carbon black manufacturers is under pressure, and the downstream market demand expectation generally puts pressure on the carbon black price, and the overall price is weak and stable.

Commodity index: on July 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.99% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 6.00% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the data of business society, in July, the trend of domestic polyacrylamide stabilized first and then fluctuated slightly. In the first and middle of July, the price of polyacrylamide was mainly stable. In the last ten days, Gongyi, Henan, the main production area, experienced a severe rainstorm. The local water treatment enterprises stopped production for about a week and finally restarted production after the power was restored. However, it will take some time for the road to recover and the logistics transportation is blocked. The current inventory situation is different. Some raw materials are slightly tight and the price has an upward trend. Some trading enterprises have high inventory and small price reduction for shipment. From the data, the mainstream price on the 1st of this month, that is, the monthly highest price, is 14460 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th is the lowest price of this month, 14380 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of 0.55%, and the price fluctuation range is very small.

The manager of Henan Kaijie water treatment Co., Ltd. understands that the price of some products in the upstream of Henan Kaijie water treatment Co., Ltd. has been stable since the rainstorm. In terms of logistics, it is difficult to find cars now. Moreover, some sections are inconvenient to pass. ” Referring to the future, manager Wang said that due to the recent continuous increase in the price of acrylic acid, the subsequent price of polyacrylamide may rise, and the prices of brown corundum and ferrous sulfate also show some signs of rising.

Acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business society, the market price of acrylic acid has continued to rise slightly since the 20th: the mainstream quotation on the 20th was 12150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 28th was 13750 yuan / ton, an increase of about 13%. As shown in the figure:

As the main raw material of polyacrylamide, acrylonitrile, the domestic mainstream market price increased slightly this month. After the increase of 50 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, the mainstream market price was about 14750 yuan / ton until the end of the month. Recently, despite the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, the domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has not been significantly affected. The delayed shipping schedule will arrive in Hong Kong at the end of this month or early next month. With the production plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II next month, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is increasing. Limited by the downstream demand with limited growth, the future acrylonitrile market is generally weak.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. In July, the domestic LNG market continued to rise in the off-season, with an increase of about 30% in the month, almost doubling the level in the same period last year, which was eye-catching in the off-season of traditional consumption. The sharp rise of liquid price this month is mainly due to the rise of cost, the reduction of market supply, the increase of demand in high temperature weather, the continuous rise of air intake, and the superposition of multiple positive factors, which supports the sharp rise of domestic LNG price. The liquid price in various places rises by more than 1000 yuan within the month, and the center of gravity moves up sharply. Now the liquid price in various parts of China has risen to more than 4500 yuan / ton, and Shandong, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have broken through the 5000 mark, with the sword finger reaching 6000. Recently, there have been heavy rainstorms in many places, affecting the logistics in some areas, the market supply continues to decrease, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the psychology of pushing up the price is still. According to the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise but difficult to fall. At present, 4680-4900 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4750-5050 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-4950 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4780-4880 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5210 yuan / ton in Henan, 4950-5200 yuan / ton in Hebei and 4600-5000 yuan / ton in Sichuan. The price of inlet gas is about 4500-5700 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and imported gas are increased to varying degrees.

Downstream demand: at the beginning of the third quarter, the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The production in the main production areas was affected to a certain extent due to the rainstorm, and the inventory of some enterprises was consumed; Although the production is suspended for about a week, due to road damage, short-term repair is difficult, logistics and transportation are limited, raw material procurement and finished product delivery are affected, and the demand and consumption rate of polyacrylamide will slow down.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business society, since the third quarter, the production has been interrupted for a short time due to the rainstorm, the transportation has been blocked, the prices of some raw materials have risen, and the production cost may rise. For enterprises with small inventory, production pressure increases; For enterprises with high inventory, there is still room for price reduction and shipment. The downstream demand has not improved much this month. The small change in price comes from the high and low inventory of products and raw materials, and the market is stable and weak. In the future, considering the strong impact of the above factors and the future trend of LNG, the polyacrylamide market may fluctuate to some extent, the ex factory prices of some manufacturers may rise slightly, and the trading enterprises with high inventory will have a larger price range.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 29, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 4875.00 yuan / ton. The white carbon black market operated smoothly, the supply side was normal, the manufacturers shipped actively, the mainstream price range was 4500-5000 yuan / ton, the upstream support was general, the downstream just needed to purchase, the overall operating rate was normal, the negotiation atmosphere was flat, and the price was mainly stable in the short term.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable trend as a whole, with the mainstream price range of 4500-5000 yuan / ton. The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the overall market is general. It mainly focuses on stable operation, the main contract orders of silica are limited, the number of new orders is limited, the overall market procurement atmosphere is flat, mostly based on negotiation, merchants take goods carefully, ship goods slowly, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced, Normal shipment and average inventory.

On July 28, the chemical index was 1107 points, an increase of 2 points over yesterday, a record high in the cycle, an increase of 85.12% over the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: white carbon black mainly maintains stable operation, and the price fluctuation range is limited（ If you want to know more about the industry chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get the information and grasp the price.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the market price of industrial grade and battery lithium carbonate in East China showed a steady increase in July 2021. The price of the manufacturers began to increase at the end of the month. As of July 28, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 87600 yuan / ton, which was 1.15% higher than that of the average price of 86600 yuan / ton in East China of industrial carbon industry on July 1. On July 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 91200 yuan / ton, which was 0.88% higher than that of the average price in East China of July (July 1) – 90400 yuan / ton. Until 28, the comprehensive price of industrial lithium carbonate was 82-9000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was between 87 and 92000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate in the first ten days of July has been running steadily, and the market demand is stable. The price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate in a few lithium carbonate enterprises has slightly increased, but most of the manufacturers’ prices remain stable. The price of lithium carbonate began to boost in mid July, and the price of the following two weeks increased steadily, and the manufacturers began to increase gradually near the end of the month.

In the second half of the year, the domestic market may continue to increase demand for lithium ore, and the limited overseas supply, which makes the domestic spodumene concentrate remain in the state of warehouse removal. In addition, with the seasonal factors of Salt Lake supply, the output of Salt Lake in Qinghai will be reduced relatively after the third quarter, which will boost the price of lithium carbonate. At the end of the month, due to typhoon, the transportation of all parts of the country is blocked, which leads to the increase of logistics cost, which also drives the price of lithium carbonate to rise.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market rose in July, with a steady increase in the first ten days, with an overall increase of 1.12%. In the second ten days, due to the maintenance of some manufacturers, the spot supply in the market is reduced, the downstream demand is increasing, and the market supply and demand continue to be tight, and the market is firm. In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the price of lithium iron phosphate in July is also in the upward trend, and the demand has increased near the end of the month.

According to the analysts of lithium carbonate of business agency, the price of lithium carbonate will return to the upward range again this month. If the output of new energy vehicles continues to be released in the second half of the year, the price of spodumene, lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate will be further supported. In addition, due to the impact of natural disasters and epidemic situation in the near future, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the short term may still be in a high level.

Market analysis: the domestic cotton market rose steadily. On July 27, the average price of China’s cotton index 3128b was 17503 yuan / ton, up 115 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. The transaction of reserve cotton is hot, and the average transaction price is higher than the spot price, which provides price support for the spot cotton. At the end of June, the total commercial cotton inventory in China was about 3.0173 million tons, a month on month decrease of 15.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.84%. USDA reported a slight reduction in global inventory in July; The new cotton planting area in China has decreased. The survey results show that the national cotton planting area will be 43.4559 million mu in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 5.47%. Although the downstream textile industry is in the traditional off-season, the off-season is not light, the inventory of cotton yarn enterprises is low, and the startup rate is relatively stable.

Future forecast: the downstream textile market demand is good, the enterprise operating rate remains high, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory continues to decline. At present, the cotton futures market has reached the highest price in recent years, and the future market of cotton can be expected. Considering that the rising part of the current market exceeds expectations, be vigilant about callback and consolidation.

Aluminum fluoride market stabilizes

The price of aluminum fluoride was stable this week, and the rainstorm failed to arouse the waves of aluminum fluoride Market. According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8500.00 yuan / ton on July 26, which was stable compared with 8500 yuan / ton on July 19 at the beginning of the week. The aluminum fluoride market is calm this week.

Electrolytic aluminum price shock adjustment

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum was adjusted this week, the export increased year-on-year, the overseas demand increased, the market supply was tight, the state threw and stored aluminum ingots, and the shortage of aluminum ingot supply was alleviated. Electrolytic aluminum market remained stable in the future.

As can be seen from the trend chart of aluminum fluoride industry chain, the upstream market of aluminum fluoride is stable this week, the cost of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable, the downstream aluminum price is stable, the aluminum ingot Market is declining, and the price of aluminum fluoride is stable.

Market overview and forecast

The aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business agency believes that the heavy rain in Henan this week has an impact on the transportation of aluminum fluoride, the aluminum fluoride market is positive, the downstream aluminum ingot price fluctuates and falls, and the aluminum fluoride market is negative. Overall, the aluminum fluoride market was mixed, and the aluminum fluoride market remained stable in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic synthetic rubber price rose and fell this week (July 19-july 23). The price of CIS polybutadiene rubber BR9000 was 14690 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14420 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an overall decline of 1.84%; The price of IBB 1502 was 14225 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 13866 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an overall decrease of 2.52%.

This week (July 19-july 23), the domestic synthetic rubber market rose and fell, and the ex factory price of synthetic rubber was stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 23, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 14100 yuan / ton, and Jihua / Fushun 1502 reported 13900 yuan / ton; There is some resistance to high priced rubber in the downstream, and the merchant’s offer is mainly higher and lower. According to the understanding of the business agency, the mainstream price in Shunding market such as Daqing, Qilu, Yanshan, Sichuan and Qixiang is around 14050 ~ 14600 yuan / ton; Jihua, Fushun, Yangzi and Qilu emulsion polybutylbenzene 1502 mainstream report 13400 ~ 14000 yuan / ton.

The commencement of butadiene styrene butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber changed slightly this week.

This week (July 19-july 23), raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost side continued to support more. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 23, the price of butadiene was 11842 yuan / ton, up 4.50% from 10987 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the price of natural rubber still fluctuated around 13000 yuan / ton, which is difficult to make an effective breakthrough in the short term, and it is mainly bad for synthetic rubber. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 23, the price of domestic natural rubber was 12962 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the low price of natural rubber has a strong negative impact on Shunding, but Shunding and styrene butadiene have plant maintenance plans in the later stage. In addition, the supply of raw butadiene is tight and the price is high. It is expected that Shunding and styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level in the later stage.

With the approach of the long-term settlement day in Northwest China this month, freight rates continue to rise. With the strength of the upper reaches and the expectation of price increase in some regions, it is expected that the mainland market will remain in a high position. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 20, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2560 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 1.79% and a year-on-year increase of 56.57%.

The northwest methanol market continued to push up in some parts, and the ex factory quotations of some major manufacturers increased significantly, guiding manufacturers in other regions to quote, while some factories in the mainland may continue to raise their quotations. The rising freight also promoted the methanol market to a certain extent.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of July 20

Region, price

Qinghai Area 2090 yuan / ton factory cash

Shanxi area 2280-2330 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Liaoning Province 2330-2350 yuan / ton delivered to the factory

Fujian area 2 670-2 690 yuan / ton

Two lakes area Ex factory reference 2500-2560 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Anhui Province 2540-2560 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2410-2425 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Downstream, the formaldehyde market rose broadly. The raw material methanol continues to show an upward trend, and the cost continues to rise. Dimethyl ether market prices continued to rise, the market trading atmosphere is good. Domestic acetic acid market atmosphere wait-and-see, stable situation to ease the downstream for acetic acid wait-and-see mentality, mainly small market transactions.

In terms of external market, as of July 20, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at US $381.00-382.00/t. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 115.00-116.00 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 343.00-344.00 euro / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 381.00-382.00/t 0 USD / ton

Europe and America Gulf of America 115.00-116.00 cents / gal 0 cents per gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 343.00-344.00 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

Business community methanol analysts expect that the short-term methanol market may be high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2800.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, July 16 potassium chloride commodity index was 88.89.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 3150 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.