On December 9, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On October 10, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China fell slightly. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate plants was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still had a lot of production stops, the domestic ammonium nitrate plants started limited work, and the recent nitrogen fertilizer prices kept falling, which brought certain benefits to the ammonium nitrate Market Under the influence of air, the price trend of ammonium nitrate declined. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi Province has declined to 2100-2200 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton. Affected by the environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, and the raw material cost keeps falling. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is slightly lower Slippery.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1600 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The situation of nitric acid delivery is general. The low price of nitric acid has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of upstream domestic liquid ammonia is rising, and the trend of some enterprises in Shandong is rising by 50-100 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remains low. Currently, the local ammonia volume is normal. The mainstream price in Shandong is 3100-3300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in Hebei is 3050 yuan / ton- 3150 yuan / ton, the rise of liquid ammonia market has a certain positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the price drop of ammonium nitrate Market is limited. In the near future, the demand of the downstream nitrogen fertilizer industry is in the off-season, the market is not good, and the market of the civil explosive industry has not changed much. For the market demand of ammonium nitrate, the purchase is on demand, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high, and the general price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the price of upstream raw material nitric acid market continues to be low, while the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will be slightly lower in the later stage.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1616 yuan / ton, and the offer was temporarily stable.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is stable temporarily, that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry is 1500 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Anhui Jinhe is 1550 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 1800 yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily. The quotation of Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1750 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. The demand of nitric acid market is general, and the quotation of enterprises is mainly cautious.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, rose 3.64% this week according to the monitoring of the business association. Downstream aniline, the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 6100 yuan / ton, down 6.15% from last week.

III. future forecast

Nitric acid market demand is light and stable, and enterprises mainly wait and see. Nitric acid analysts of business association predict that the nitric acid market may continue to be weak.

According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China this week was stable. As of the end of the week, the price was 10500 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 33.55% year on year.

Product: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are generally on the way. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry is still at a low level. The domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate. The domestic spot supply is sufficient, and the domestic price trend is stable. By the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the south is 9500-10500 The price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is normal in the near future, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is general, and the market price in the field is stable, but some manufacturers reflect that there is a continuous upward trend in the near future. By the end of the week, the mainstream of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian was about 9500-10500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 9500-10000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 9500-10000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 9500-10000 yuan / ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remained volatile.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of fluorite is 2883.33 yuan / ton. The supply of fluorite in China is normal, but the price of fluorite has little change. The upstream cost price has a certain impact on the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market. With the decrease of gas temperature, the supply of fluorite in the north will gradually decline. At that time, the price of fluorite may rise. For hydrogen There are some positive expectations for the fluoroacid market. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has remained at a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved, while the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the price trend of downstream product aluminum fluoride has declined slightly, at the end of the week, it was 9000 yuan / ton, and this week, the price trend has declined by 1.8%. The downstream market is general, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has remained volatile.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is normal, coupled with the general trading market of the downstream refrigerant industry, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable.

In the near future, the operation rate of domestic refrigerant unit has not changed much. For the demand of hydrofluoric acid market, purchase is required, and the spot supply in hydrofluoric acid field is normal. However, in the near future, the supply of raw material market has decreased, and the price of fluorite has been supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will rise slightly next week.

I. price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid was 5333.33 yuan / ton on November 25 and 5333.33 yuan / ton on November 29, according to the bulk data list of business agency. The trend was stable in the week, up 23.55% compared with the same period last year

II. Market analysis

Product: phosphoric acid enterprises are supported by raw material end, but the price is firm, and some are slightly loose. However, the current situation of phosphoric acid market is general, wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good, the overall delivery is still tepid, and the price is mostly on the market, the downstream is mainly just in need of procurement, with a cautious wait-and-see mentality, and there is no sign of boosting the demand side. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of November 29, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5333.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 4700-5800 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation and overall stability.

Industry chain: the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained high. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and prices remained stable in the past two weeks. This month, yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving, the overall market of yellow phosphorus is light in trading, and the price shows a downward trend. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated at a high level.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are six commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on November 28, 2019, among which the top three commodities are isopropanol (2.81%), hydrofluoric acid (2.78%) and acrylic acid (2.16%). There are 10 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were ammonium chloride (- 2.25%), mixed xylene (- 1.16%) and acetic acid (- 0.62%). The average price of this day is 0.04%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and chemical branch, at present, the demand of phosphoric acid enterprises is mostly in a wait-and-see state, the purchasing is not high, and the price fluctuates with the positive support of the raw material end. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will mainly maintain stability in the short term.

I. trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, the nickel price on December 2 was 111966.67 yuan / ton, down 1.91% compared with the previous trading day, up 25.09% compared with the beginning of the year, up 17.26% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Nickel price has been continuously revised back since November, and nickel market has returned to fundamentals after the positive digestion of Indonesia’s ore ban in the early stage. Recently, restricted by the high inventory and profit compression, the stainless steel market has been receiving the news of maintenance and production reduction, which undoubtedly makes the demand expectation of nickel market more pessimistic. The production reduction of stainless steel plant has been implemented in succession, and the basic performance of nickel itself is more negative due to the falling price space of stainless steel itself. However, Indonesia’s nickel ore and nickel iron import data in October were lower than expected, and the Philippines’ supply in rainy season was expected to decline. The import data in November and December were facing a decline, which had some support for nickel prices.

III. future prospects

Future forecast: downstream demand is weak, but supply decline has some support, and nickel price is expected to remain weak and volatile trend.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline rose slightly in November and then fell in a step-by-step manner, with a monthly decline of 19.11%. On October 31, the price in Shandong was 8300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 8700 yuan / ton; on November 30, the price in Shandong was 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Raw materials: pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. On November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid in East China is lower in this month. At the end of October, the price of nitric acid in East China is 1716.67 yuan / ton. At the end of November, the price of nitric acid in East China is 1616.67 yuan / ton.

2. Products: this month, the basic recovery load of the aniline plant shut down by enterprises increased the supply. The downstream demand has been low, the enterprise inventory has accumulated, in order to promote shipment, the price has been lowered many times.

III. future forecast

1. Raw materials: at present, domestic demand for pure benzene downstream is weak, which will still restrict the market recovery. It is predicted that the short-term pure benzene market is difficult to return to temperature, and the weak operation is the main one. But the stock up before the Spring Festival will form a good support for the market.

2. Domestic market: there is no large-scale shutdown of domestic aniline plant temporarily; the overall operation rate of downstream MDI is not high, the demand is weak, and the price of aniline is difficult to recover.

Considering comprehensively, it is expected that aniline will still operate weakly and stably in the short term, and attention should be paid to raw materials and downstream market.

Commodity index: on November 27, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 105.41, unchanged from yesterday, 3.30% lower than the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and 4.47% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: for the manufacturers monitored by the mainstream of the business association, on November 1, the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 1966.67 yuan / ton, and on November 27, the market price was 1950 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.85% this month. Among them, the lowest price was 1943.33 yuan / ton, the highest price was 1966.67 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 1.19%. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride from this month to now: the quotation with tax of 1800-2000 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%), 390-410 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial level, content 10% – 12%), and 20-50 yuan / ton for the lowest price of the manufacturer.

Industrial chain: in November, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable; however, in addition to the sharp rise in Polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride did not rise in the fourth quarter but fell instead, and the trend in the first half of the month was similar to the extended version of “Z”. In the upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the hydrochloric acid monitored by the business association in North China this month was affected by the rise of upstream liquid chlorine and the difficulty in handling the transportation certificate. The price increased by more than 100 yuan / ton, with a quotation of 173.33 yuan / ton on the first day and a substantial rise to 290 yuan / ton on the 10th. Downstream demand is stable this month, and the volume is sufficient.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. The manufacturer’s production and supply of goods are normal in October and November.

Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, in November, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal, the market supply was large, and the market price of polyaluminium chloride was stable and slightly decreased. The environmental protection inspection is relatively strict, and occasionally the production is stopped for a short time, but the production is not affected as a whole, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the possibility of a sharp rise in the future market price is unlikely, as well as the possibility of a sharp fall, which is still stable with small fluctuations.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 27, the comprehensive price of BPA was 9833.33 yuan / ton, which was just needed to be purchased in the downstream, with general volume and low negotiation focus.

II. Cause analysis

Products: the domestic BPA market maintains a weak operation. At the end of the month, some manufacturers are actively shipping, giving way to profits and taking orders. The inventory is limited, and the focus of negotiation keeps falling. As of November 27, the price of lihuayi Weiyuan BPA is 9500 yuan / ton. The BPA market in East China is weak and volatile, with weak demand follow-up, 9500 yuan / ton, 10000 yuan / ton in South China and 9500 yuan / ton in North China.

Industry chain: the downstream epoxy resin (epoxy) plant is not fully started, and the downstream PC (polycarbonate) is in a weak shock for a short time. The dual downstream supplies and maintains rigid demand for raw materials, and the domestic BPA units are in normal operation. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, and the short-term market is difficult to rebound. However, the upstream acetone price is rising rapidly, and the cost surface has some support.

III. future forecast

BPA analysts believe that the market is mainly weak and volatile in the short term.

I. trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly last week (11.18-11.22), with the price at the beginning of the week at 10875 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the week at 10950 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 0.69%.

II. Market analysis

The stable ex factory price of petrochemicals, coupled with the rapid price rise of natural rubber, has certain support for the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. Stable ex factory price of petrochemicals: last week (11.18-11.22)), the ex factory price of domestic polybutadiene rubber petrochemical manufacturers was stable. As of November 22, the price of polybutadiene rubber of CNPC Northeast sales company was stable. At present, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding was 10800 yuan / ton, and that of Jinzhou Shunding was 10800 yuan / ton. The price of polybutadiene rubber of CNPC Northwest sales company was stable: the price of Dushanzi Shunding warehouse was 10850 yuan / ton, of which 50 Yuan / ton is the storage fee; the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales company is stable. At present, Qilu Shunding reports 10800 yuan / ton and North China warehouse raises the price; Yanshan Shunding reports 10720 yuan / ton and North China warehouse raises the price.

Rubber imports fell month on month in October, forming a positive effect on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 500000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October, down 8.4% from 546000 tons last month. China imported 5.213 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) from January to October.

The price of raw materials fell slightly: the price of raw materials butadiene fell slightly, and the cost of raw materials pulled back to cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business news agency, at the beginning of this week, the amount of butadiene was 8634 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, 8590 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.51%.

III. future prospects

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business club, believes that although the price of butadiene, the upstream raw material, is slightly down, the price of Tianjiao is rising rapidly, which will boost the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the short term, and the market is expected to continue to rise slightly in the later period.

On November 25, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 25th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On November 22, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 5 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 773-775 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 794-796 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The rise of external market price has a certain positive impact on the domestic PX market price, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On November 22, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to $57.77/barrel, or $0.81, while Brent crude oil futures fell to $63.39/barrel, or $0.58. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia and OPEC have a common goal, namely, to maintain the balance and predictability of the oil market, and Russia will continue to work under the global production reduction agreement In October, Russia cut its oil production from 11.25 million B / D in September to 11.23 million B / D, but still higher than the 11.17-11.18 million B / D ceiling set by existing global agreements. Crude oil price is lower, which has lost certain cost support for petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend is stable. In recent years, the textile industry is in a volatile market, the PTA Market operating rate is rising, and the PTA price trend is slightly rising. The average price of the offer in East China is around 4800-4900 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 92.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 87.5%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general trading atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed up by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price The price of PTA in the downstream market remains low due to grid shock. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.