1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the price of pure benzene continued to rise this week, boosted by multiple positive. On August 2, the listed price of pure benzene was 3230-3400 yuan / ton (the average price was 3370 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (August 9), the listed price of pure benzene was 3330-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3440 yuan / ton), and the average price was 70 yuan / ton or 2.08% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec raised the price by 100 yuan / ton to 3450 yuan / ton. The bottom support was strengthened and the market was reluctant to sell at low prices. Last week experienced the end of the month to fill the short, the enthusiasm for purchasing was high, this week the market mentality fell, spot trading was light. This week, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to rise, restricting the market to recover, but the pressure of pressure to increase has eased, the situation may be better than July.

On the external side, the price of pure benzene fell this week. On Friday (August 7), South Korea imported 436.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 13.67 US dollars / ton, or 3.04% compared with July 30; and the price of pure benzene imported from East China was 445 US dollars / ton, unchanged from July 30.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices rose in the first half of the week and fell in the second half. Compared with July 31, Brent was up $1.375 per barrel, or 3.21%, and WTI was up $0.92 per barrel, or 2.27%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 33.71%, and WTI decreased by 31.73%.

On the downstream side, styrene inventory has increased recently, and the pressure of de stocking is still large. On August 7, the price of styrene in Shandong was 5366.67 yuan / ton, up 0.63% over last week.

At present, the supply and demand of aniline enterprises are stable, and the price is less affected by pure benzene. On August 7, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4200-4330 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4300-4500 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, international tensions and the deadlock in negotiations on the new US stimulus plan hit the crude oil market, and it is expected that there will be a major breakthrough in oil prices next week.

At present, the port inventory of pure benzene is still rising, and there are still 20000-30000 tons of pure benzene waiting to be unloaded, which restricts the market situation of pure benzene. However, Sinopec’s tag price was raised, and the bottom support was stronger. It is expected that the rise of pure benzene will slow down next week and maintain the range fluctuation. In addition, attention should be paid to the impact of the safety self inspection incident on the storage of dangerous chemicals caused by the previous incident in Lebanon port.

According to the statistics, the price of xylene is stable at the beginning of this week, and the average price of xylene is 4600.34 yuan / week.

The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, fuhaichuang plant is on the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is running normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant is running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit is operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is running stably The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has started a production line. Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. The trend of PX external price is mainly fluctuating. As of the end of the week, the closing prices of PX in Asian region are 524-526 USD / T FOB Korea and 542-544 USD / T CFR China. This week, the external price of PX has little change. More than 40% of domestic products need to be imported, and the closing price of PX external market is shocked Swing to the domestic market to bring a certain support impact, domestic PX market price trend temporarily stable.

The U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price rose this week. As of the 6th, the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was at $41.95/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was at $45.09/barrel. The recent rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to OPEC +’s agreement to relax the supply limit for record production reduction, the number of cases in the United States continues to surge, and supported by the good news of compensatory production reduction in Iraq, the crude oil price trend has risen and the domestic p-xylene market price trend has temporarily stabilized.

The price trend of downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the end of the weekend, the PTA Market in East China had been discussed for 3600-3700 yuan. Recently, the starting load of PTA industry was 85%, and the rise of crude oil price supported PTA market price. However, up to now, the domestic loom operating load is at a low point in the same period of 7 years, while the gray cloth inventory in Shengze area is at a historical high, so it is difficult to remove inventory. In addition, it is traditional clothing from July to August In the off-season of the industry, at present, the demand has not recovered. Recently, due to the promotion of crude oil price, PTA market price has increased, but the textile industry demand has not improved significantly, and the PX price trend is stable.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is not stable, and the terminal demand is poor. For upstream Px, on-demand procurement is the main factor, and the price trend of PX market is stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Px, a business agency, believes that crude oil prices have risen slightly in the near future, but the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is average, and domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain about 4600 yuan / ton next week.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 5): 1730.00 yuan / ton

On August 5, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose, which was 63.33 yuan / ton, or 3.80%, higher than that on August 3. The upstream liquid ammonia has recently hit the bottom and rebounded, with strong cost support. Under the influence of India’s continuous bidding and other favorable effects, the enterprise mentality improved and the market trading was smooth. Today, prices in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places increased by 10-80 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the short-term urea market will rise mainly due to small fluctuations: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 1750 yuan / ton.

In July 2020, the domestic market price of 1 ᦇ antimony ingot will rise. The average price of domestic market will be 36125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 36875 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 750 yuan / ton or 2.08 yuan.

The antimony commodity index on July 30 was 51.33, unchanged with yesterday, down 49.83% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 9.26% higher than 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

Antimony products are still in the off-season this month. The prices of antimony products have remained stable for most of the time. The transaction is at a low level, and the overall situation is relatively flat. At the end of the month, the non-ferrous metal market is on the rise as a whole. It is mainly affected by the geopolitical tension, the surge of foreign cases and other basic factors. The spot market in the metal period is red, which drives the antimony market up slightly and increases greatly About 500 yuan / ton. As of 30 days, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingot is 36000 yuan / ton, that of 1 × antimony ingot is 36500 yuan / ton, that of 0 × antimony ingot is 37500 yuan / ton, and that of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingot is 34500 yuan / ton. The market price of antimony trioxide keeps stable with the trend of antimony ingot. As of 29, 99.5% of the average price of antimony trioxide was 33250 yuan / ton, and 99.8% was at 34750 yuan / ton.

As the world’s largest producer of antimony series products, China mainly exports its products. According to the comparison of customs data, China’s export of antimony oxide is about 19758 tons from January to June of 2019; from January to June of 2020, China’s export of antimony oxide is about 18743 tons; compared with the same period of last year, the export of antimony oxide decreased by 5.13% year-on-year. The overall decline in the first half of the year was fair.

The business association thinks that at present, antimony products are still in the traditional off-season, and manufacturers mainly support prices, and the favorable fundamentals drive the metal market to rise strongly. However, when the transaction volume of antimony market is low, most manufacturers mainly support the price, and it is expected that the future market price will maintain a stable trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on July 31, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 6487 yuan / ton, which was 0.97% higher than that at the beginning of the week, 3.8% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 3.78% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, PVC futures strong shock, spot market decline temporarily, prices slightly up. Since the middle of July, PVC market has been in the callback stage, near the end of the month a small rebound, boosting the market atmosphere. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is flat, and the operating rate of downstream products industry decreases, about 70%, and the demand decreases. However, the support is still there. The rainy weather in the South and the public health events in some areas have restrained some downstream demand and continued to maintain the rigid demand. The market inquiry heat is general, and the actual transaction is not high. Therefore, the increase this week is limited, and the mainstream prices are rising at 50%- Most of them are in the range of 100 yuan, and the manufacturer’s profit is fair. At the same time, in August, the overhaul of PVC enterprises is coming to an end, and the operating rate and output are gradually increasing. The enterprises are under pressure to carry goods, and there is a risk of price callback. The future market may continue to fluctuate.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 31, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6250-6650 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6580-6650 yuan / ton, that of Changzhou is 6600-6680 yuan / ton, that of Hebei is 6400-6500 yuan / ton, and that of Guangzhou is 6600-6680 yuan / ton.

In terms of futures, the opening price of V2009 contract on Friday was 6605, the highest price was 6635, the lowest price was 6520, and the closing price was 6610, up 5%, or 0.08%. The trading volume was 141000, with a decrease of 65000. The position was 147000, decreased by 1882. Futures market high volatility.

Crude oil: on July 31, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.27/barrel, up $0.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.52/barrel, up $0.27. Oil prices rose slightly, mainly due to a record reduction in US production in May.

Ethylene, as of the 29th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $795-805 / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at $700-710 / T. The European ethylene market price is FD, northwest Europe closed at 749-758 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 690-698 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States remained stable, with the price of 339-357 US dollars / ton, showing a downward trend as a whole. Current crude oil: according to the previous agreement reached by OPEC +, the record production reduction will end in July. If OPEC + reduces the share of production reduction, it may further break the balance of the current oil market, and there is a risk of downward oil price. So business agency data analysts expect ethylene prices to fall mainly below.

Calcium carbide, in late July, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide. Although the downstream PVC market has declined, the decline is limited. The downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide, and the calcium carbide production capacity is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is relatively tight. The later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late July.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that the current PVC futures are strong and volatile, and the PVC spot market will rise slightly. However, in the off-season demand, the downstream’s acceptance of high-end PVC is limited, and the enthusiasm for pursuing the rise is not high. Manufacturers are under pressure to deliver goods, and there is a risk of downward adjustment. It is expected that the trend of PVC will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, on July 31, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market was 15010 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.41% compared with the average market price of 14376.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (July 1), 3.14% higher than the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 11230 yuan / ton, up 33.58%.

In July, the price of aluminum ingot jumped to the peak value of 15343.33 yuan / ton on July 13, and then the price fell continuously. On July 17, the price of aluminum ingot fell to 14380 yuan / ton, then stopped falling and stabilized, and rose slightly. At the end of the month, the price of aluminum ingot returned to 15000 yuan / ton.

Data of aluminum industry in the first half of the year

Domestic production:

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June 2020, China’s original aluminum output was 17.889 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; aluminum production was 26.458 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; alumina output was 35.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, a decrease of 2.1% compared with the first quarter.

Among them, the national electrolytic aluminum production in June was 3.004 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.42%.

In terms of export:

From January to June of 2020, the export of unshaped and rolled aluminum and aluminum products was 2.366 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%; from January to June, the export of aluminum products was 2.224 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%, and the decline rate was 2.9 percentage points larger than that of the first quarter; among them, the export of unshaped and rolled aluminum products in June was 354000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30%.

Import:

From January to June of 2020, the total amount of original aluminum import was 162300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 390%; from January to June, the import of raw aluminum was 629000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 591.1%; from January to June, the cumulative import of alumina was 1939000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 501.3%; from January to June, the import of bauxite (physical volume) was 58.31 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%; from January to June, the import of aluminum scrap was 389000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 53.9%..

Among them, the original aluminum import volume in June was 123500 tons, including 0086 tons of tariff code 76011010 and 123400 tons of tariff code 76011090. In June 2020, the import volume of raw aluminum increased by 574% month on month, and increased by 4060% compared with June last year. In June, 422600 tons of alumina were imported.

The data shows that in the first half of 2020, the output of domestic aluminum industry increased steadily, the import of bauxite and smelting products increased year-on-year, and the decline of downstream aluminum exports expanded.

Social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to move down vs. capacity increases in advance

On July 23, domestic spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 70.2 tons, 6000 tons less than last week. At the end of the month, the social inventory of aluminum ingots fluctuated below 690000 tons.

In the second half of the year, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places is expected to be large. According to statistics, the new equipment capacity in the above areas will be about 3 million tons in 2020, which will increase the market supply pressure. On the one hand, based on the sluggish investment in the first half of the year, some production capacity will be gradually put into operation in the second half of the year. On the other hand, the aluminum ingot price is rising, and the profit per ton of aluminum supports the manufacturers’ willingness to put into production.

Future forecast

In the traditional off-season of aluminum market from June to August, the price of electrolytic aluminum was firm. At present, a large part of electrolytic aluminum supply appeared in the form of “aluminum water aluminum material”. In addition, the consumption scenarios of domestic downstream real estate industry, automobile consumption, cable and so on are expected to be good, and the spot aluminum ingot de stocking is obvious. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will still be strong in the near future

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of July 29, the average domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 9114 yuan / ton, a decrease of 343 yuan / ton or 3.52% compared with the beginning of July, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.63%. The market quotation of cotton linter is still firm, the price of viscose staple fiber is generally lower, and the mainstream quotation is 8500-9300 yuan / ton.

In July, the cotton linter market was basically stable and the supply was limited, but the downstream demand was not ideal. Some manufacturers of viscose said that there was no market and the external price was unreasonably high. Chemical fiber factories and refined cotton factories purchase as they are used, and the start-up situation is not ideal, which restricts the purchase of cotton linter. Market purchase and sales saw, cotton linter to maintain a stable market. However, viscose staple fiber manufacturers offer a significant decline, or even lower.

Exports are weak and domestic demand is flat. According to statistics, the total export volume of viscose staple fiber from January to may 2020 is about 137800 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of about 17%. On July 29, the commodity price index of viscose staple fiber and man-made cotton yarn was 93.39, which was the same as yesterday, 6.96% lower than 100.38 (2019-07-21), and 9.96% higher than the lowest point of 84.93 on January 05, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

As of July 29, the average ex factory price of 30s cotton yarn in Shandong was 13733 yuan / ton, down 133 yuan / ton or 0.96% compared with the price at the beginning of July, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.74%. Some manufacturers entered the holding period after substantial price adjustment. From January to may 2020, the monthly export volume of single yarn of man-made cotton tends to be weak, with a total export volume of about 32200 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of about 13%. The prices quoted by manufacturers vary from 12200 yuan to 15000 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials has dropped significantly. The undercurrent of man-made cotton yarn is surging, and the price is expected to drop.

The manufacturers without actual transaction continued to stop production in stages, and the manufacturers who supported the price before appeared loose. Business agency analysts believe that, on the one hand, it is the needs of manufacturers to remove inventory and withdraw funds; on the other hand, there is no significant change in downstream demand. Considering that the supply of cotton linter will increase over time, the cost may fall again, which is also in line with the market trend. It is expected that staple fiber and man-made cotton yarn will continue to bear pressure in August.

Near the end of the month, the national acetone market continued to fall deeply, with domestic petrochemical manufacturers falling by 700-800 yuan / ton. The listed prices of national petrochemical companies were mostly between 6800-7000 yuan / ton, which was a big drop compared with the previous 10000 yuan acetone market. And the acetone market was nearly cut off in more than a month. According to the monitoring data of business agencies, the highest offer of acetone market in East China was 12300 yuan / ton on June 8, and on July 27 There is still room for single offer of 6800 tons of acetone in East China. At present, the market negotiation is cold and the purchasing mood of the terminal is not high. There is really no minimum but a lower situation. At present, the stock of liquors in the port has dropped to less than 10000 tons. It is expected that the acetone offer will maintain a stable trend at the end of the month.

The domestic factory starts high, the expected arrival volume is moderate, and the short-term market supply is sufficient. At the end of the month, the port inventory is less than 10000 tons. It is estimated that about 5000 tons will arrive from Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Japan and other countries at the end of the month and early August. The overall arrival volume is moderate. The arrival situation in late August is still under tracking. At present, the operating rate of domestic factories is relatively high, only Sinopec well 3 is still in shutdown, and it is expected to start operation at the end of August; the new phenol ketone unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company has not been started, and the details are being tracked; other factories have high operating rate, and the overall domestic output is relatively sufficient. At present, some domestic factories are operating as follows:

In terms of raw materials, the narrow rise in the price of pure benzene was mainly due to the expected delay in the import to Hong Kong. At the end of the month, traders were scarce, and the market was pushed up by a narrow margin. Petrochemicals took the opportunity to raise the price by 100 yuan / ton, which improved the atmosphere. Propylene was in a weak position, with transactions mostly at 6650-6700 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, after a short-term correction, the market transaction of bisphenol A fell into crisis again. At present, most of the negotiations are at 9300-9400 yuan / ton. Although the price of raw material phenol is struggling to support, there is no long-term good trend after the terminal demand replenishment. It takes time for the terminal to continue to be good, and the purchase price has declined.

According to the business agency, the factory has significantly lowered the listing price for several consecutive times, so far Sinopec’s guiding price has dropped to 6800-7000 yuan / ton. The downstream isopropanol market orders are moderate, the market demand gradually recovers to moderate, and the demand for raw materials is stable, while other downstream operating rates are still recovering, and some of the previous high-level raw materials have higher costs. At present, there is still downward space for acetone, and the terminal wait-and-see increases. In terms of cost, the acetone market may continue to decline under the imbalance of supply and demand. The business association predicts that the port arrival will be delayed at the end of the month, the port supply will be moderate at the end of the month, the acetone market will remain stable at the end of July, and the acetone market in East China will be at 6700-6900 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China on July 27 was 1533 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of nitric acid was adjusted in a narrow range. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1400 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1400-1450 yuan / ton, which was about 50 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1750 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. offered 1450 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was higher Weekly increase of 30 yuan / ton; Wenshui County Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd., the ex factory price of concentrated nitric acid is 1580 yuan / ton, which is the same as last time; the market demand of nitric acid is fair, the manufacturers adjust flexibly, and the market changes little.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream liquid ammonia: this week (7.20-24), the domestic liquid ammonia market trend is divided, and the price of some regions has a large downward range. For example, the price of Shandong, the main production area, has dropped sharply, and Hebei has also followed the Shandong market. The market supply surged and the price of liquid ammonia dropped sharply. The price of raw material liquid ammonia fell, dragging down the market of nitric acid. Downstream aniline: this week, aniline continued to stabilize last week. On July 24, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4200-4280 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4300-4400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by raw materials, nitric acid analysts in the business club predicted that the nitric acid upward was hindered.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei was stable this week, and the operating rate of potassium sulfate in Mannheim in Shandong Province dropped to 75%, mainly due to equipment maintenance by manufacturers, and the price rose. Mannheim potassium sulfate factory: 50% powder 2550; 50% particles and 52% water soluble powder about 2650. The report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 52% powder 2450; Qinghai 50% powder 2300. Due to the lack of stock, the agent raised the selling price of potash by 50 yuan / ton from July 20 this week. It is understood that the transaction price of old customers is no less than 2600 yuan / ton. The key is that there is no inventory in each factory, there are more self use (including export) and more to be sent out, so the spot is tight, most of them are in the state of temporary suspension of sales; the price of hydrochloric acid, a by-product, slightly rose to about 70 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analysts of the business society believe that: there is no pressure on the potassium sulfate Market, and the overall price tends to go up, but the industry is short of confidence in its long-term trend for the time being, believing that high profits and high risks will restrict its rising space.