Commodity Index: Polyaluminium chloride Commodity Index on July 31 was 104.50, which was the same as yesterday. It was 3.34% lower than the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and 3.57% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: On July 1, the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 1950 yuan/ton, and on July 31, the market price of this product was stable at 1933.33 yuan/ton. In July, it fell first and then rebounded slightly, with an overall decrease of 2.52%. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current domestic market quotation range of polyaluminium chloride is 1700-1900 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) and 330-410 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%)

Industry chain: Recent upstream raw material calcium powder of polyaluminium chloride is affected by environmental protection shutdown factors, the market anticipates that the subsequent price rise of polyaluminium chloride will be caused by the reduction of calcium powder output; different manufacturers have different stock volumes and prices, and some distributors have slightly increased prices; hydrochloric acid prices began to rise substantially on 26 th of this month. Italian news agency monitoring data show that the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 123.33 yuan/ton on 31 this month, which has a great impact on the follow-up price of polyaluminium chloride.

Industry: Recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province received the “stop-production notice”. The notice requests: According to the analysis of environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the city attack and fortification office requests all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance, and dispatch or acceptance according to fortification. It can be returned to production. Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: the demand of polyaluminium chloride downstream is stable in the near future, the production cost of the production enterprises with insufficient supply of calcium powder in the upstream is rising, and this month the production enterprises of polyaluminium chloride are required to stop production in accordance with the requirements of environmental protection management. The relevant manufacturers say that, according to the inventory situation in the factory, the price of products will increase frequency during the period of shutdown. The market generally predicts that the market price of related products will be in a tight supply situation in the later period, and that there will be a two-month shutdown period and the price of products will rise significantly. The products involved are polyacrylamide, polyaluminium chloride, molecular sieve, brown corundum, etc.

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5370 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price of domestic ethanol market dropped by 0.19%, which was 1.55% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the alcohol market has gone up and down differently. The Northeast Alcohol Market is in a weak position. Large factories in Northeast Jilin have maintenance plans in the near future. Enterprises are actively shipping in the early stage. It is reported that enterprises have obvious willingness to pull up in the near future, and the downstream purchasing willingness is general. Large factories in Heilongjiang have parked and small factories have positive shipment mentality. Market transaction prices continue to burst out at low prices, while prices in East China have fallen. Now stable, downstream more consumption of low-cost supply; some enterprises in Henan are still unstable, supported by good supply side prices remain stable; Northeast China arrives at port, local supply is limited, Mashan plant in Guangxi region continues to stop, it is reported that short-term driving is possible, downstream demand is light, market protection. Stay steady.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the price difference between corn auctioned grain source and new grain is limited, the competitive advantage of auctioned grain declines, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase is not strong, and the demand is weak. With the continuous entry of grain for auction in the near future, the enthusiasm of trade enterprises to go out of the warehouse has increased. Some corn deep processing enterprises will be repaired soon in summer. In addition, the demand for breeding is currently in a relatively stable and slightly weak state. We anticipate that in the context of the continued entry of grain auctions into the market, the corn market will continue to maintain a weak stage of adjustment, and the probability will be greater until the end of the auction. However, from the overall trend, the corn market is expected to be bullish after the middle and late August. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market for ethyl acetate is strong this week. After a series of early rises, downstream and traders digest pre-order and inventory mainly, the market turnover is light, the market maintains a high firm. Despite the insufficient turnover of new orders in the market, the mainstream manufacturers still mainly deliver early orders, and there is no short-term accumulation of supply, maintaining a high and stable price offer. After mid-month, some export orders were delivered one after another. However, after the expansion of Ethyl Acetate plant in Europe, the quantity of domestic export of Ethyl Acetate decreased. Although near the end of the month, the current export support is not good enough. Domestic downstream digestion speed is limited, short-term domestic single market turnover is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

A large factory in Northeast Jilin area will enter the overhaul immediately. The stock of enterprises is not high and the willingness to pull up is obvious. It is expected that the short-term market will go up slightly. Small factories in Heilongjiang area will ship goods actively. However, under the pull of Jilin’s supply, it is expected that the short-term market price will remain stable or adjust slightly. New low-price goods in Northeast China will arrive. After Hong Kong, it is expected that the price of local supply in East China will be weak; the start-up load of enterprises in Henan is not high; furthermore, large factories in Sichuan will enter the inspection and repair immediately, which will benefit Henan market, and the market price in Henan will remain firm; the entry price of foreign supply in South China will remain firm in the short term, and local enterprises in South China will be underfunded by raw materials supply. Supported by this, the enterprises are reluctant to reduce the price of sales, and the short-term market in South China is expected to remain stable. Ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term trend of regionalization of the domestic ethanol market is obvious.

Price trends:

According to the data monitoring of business associations, this week Sinopec Neighbouring Benzene executed the quotation stably. As of July 27, the executed contract price of Sinopec o-xylene was 5900.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene at the beginning of the week at 5900.00 yuan/ton, and 13.71% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product Analysis

Neighbouring benzene prices fell this week, while European neighbouring benzene prices fell by about $15 per ton. Outside quotation fell, import cost of Phenyls fell, port inventory was low and stable, inventory consumption was slow, demand for Phenyls was general, the market for Phenyls in the future was negative. Fuhaichuang’s o-xylene plant with capacity of 240,000 tons/year was delayed to August, and the start-up rate of o-xylene plant was low. Neighbouring benzene prices in the future fall under greater pressure.

Factor Analysis of Industrial Chain

This week, mixed xylene market volatility rose, which is good for o-benzene. This week, mixed xylene rose by 0.18%, with limited growth and insufficient momentum. The overall mixed xylene price is not good enough for future phenyl, and the pressure of decline of phenyl still exists. Mixed xylene trading is general, the future market of mixed xylene is not enough momentum to rise, the overall market for o-benzene is negative.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fell slightly this week, the overall market was negative. This week, phthalic anhydride market shocks fell, the start rate maintained, downstream market fell on the neighbouring benzol Market bearish. Downward pressure on the price of o-phenyl increased.

industry

Plasticizers fell sharply this week, by 4.66%, with limited downstream demand. The downturn of plasticizer market has increased the pressure on the market of phenyl, and the downturn risk of phenyl in the future market has increased.

3. Future market forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of o-xylene data from business associations, on the supply side, the price of o-xylene in the external market fell sharply this week, while the price of imported o-xylene fell; the price of raw materials mixed xylene rose but at a very low rate, which had little impact on the cost of o-xylene, and the overall cost of o-xylene was temporarily stable; on the demand side, the downstream market of phthalic an Plasticizer market declined, overall downstream customer purchasing enthusiasm declined, demand for Phenyls declined, future market Phenyls market was negative, downward pressure increased. Generally speaking, demand declines, the market of Phenyls is negative. On the supply side, the market of Phenyls has no obvious good news. The downside risk of Phenyls in the future increases, and the downward pressure on Phenyls increases. It is expected that the overall market of Phenyls will remain weak and stable, but the downside risk will increase.

On July 25, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 25th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of the operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX units in Asia is about 80%. On July 24, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars per ton. The closing price was 817-819 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 836-838 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 24, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 55.88 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.89 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 63.18 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.65 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for downstream petrochemical products prices. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporary. Steady. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined 25 days, the average price of East China is around 5700-5800 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 89%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market prices slightly lower, it is expected that PX market prices will be later. Maintain shock.

Today, the price of ethylene oxide has been adjusted, with the exception of northeast China, the price of ethylene oxide has been increased by 200 yuan/ton. At present, the prices in East and Northeast China are 7600 yuan/ton, 7 900 yuan/ton in Central and South China and 7 700 yuan/ton in North China.

EO prices have been raised today, with a nationwide increase of 200 yuan. Many enterprises have concentrated on overhaul and failed to implement the plan of reproduction, which has tightened the resources of ethylene oxide in the market. Ethylene is expected to rise, or bring cost support to the ethylene oxide market. According to the current price of ethylene, the profit is estimated to be about 700 yuan. The stable operation of downstream gives a good support to ethylene oxide. EO/EG co-production is mainly based on the production of ethylene oxide. Influenced by the buying-up-not-buying-down mentality, the price of Polycarboxylic Water Reducer monomer also increased slightly, and the purchasing mentality increased.

The implementation of today’s general inflation, short-term stability, follow-up needs to keep up with factory news.

On July 23, the fluorite commodity index was 110.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.30% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 124.61% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 3150 yuan/ton as of 23 days. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price trend of fluorite market is on demand. Rise. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of 23 days, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained high.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fluorite has been slightly lower. As of 22 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12050 yuan/ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has been weakened and the price of fluorite has oscillated. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the on-site transaction price does not change very much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is slightly lower. In addition, the supply of fluorite market is normal, and the fluorite price trend is temporarily stable. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the fluorite market price may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China was temporarily stable this week. The average price quoted by mainstream carbide manufacturers this week was 3033.33 yuan per ton, up 4.16% from the same period last year. Overall, the market of calcium carbide was stable this week, with the carbide commodity index of 79.48 on July 19.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

This week’s northwest region calcium carbide factory price is temporarily stable: Qinghai Saikant calcium carbide weekend quotation is 2950 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 50 yuan/ton; Orvega can this week calcium carbide quotation is 3100 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shaanxi coal industry this week calcium carbide quotation is 3000 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Inner Mongolia China Union this week calcium carbide quotation 3050. The quotation is stable for RMB / ton, while the quotation for calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia is stable for RMB 2950 / ton this week.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2900-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 3000 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Qinghai is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream Raw Material Market: The quotation for coke ex-factory this week is tentatively stable, at 1 746.67 yuan/ton, down 12.67% from the same period last year. The upstream raw material price is low and consolidated, which is affected by supply and demand, and has a positive impact on the market of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC ex-factory prices fell slightly this week. The price of PVC fell from 6782.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6732.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 50.00 yuan/ton, or 0.74%, 1.05% from the same period last year. Downstream customers’enthusiasm for calcium carbide purchasing declined, and the demand for calcium carbide was general, which had a negative impact on the market of calcium carbide.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in June, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Low price of raw materials upstream consolidation, has a positive impact on calcium carbide, but the downstream PVC market has a downward trend, customer procurement enthusiasm for calcium carbide has also declined, calcium carbide demand is general. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in late July, but the decline is not significant, and the ex-factory price may be maintained at around 3000 yuan/ton.

Commodity Index: On July 19, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 100.61, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.09% from 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08) and up 5.11% from 95.72 points on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: The monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com) show that on July 1, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (cationic) market is about 16566.67 yuan/ton, and on the 19th, the mainstream quotation is 16466.67 yuan/ton. This week’s quotation shows a slight fluctuation trend, which belongs to the fine-tuning of the normal range of manufacturers. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18 000 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10 000-12 000 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Strict environmental inspection, strong upstream product prices, price fluctuations of polyacrylamide manufacturers are not large, the market of polyacrylamide is generally stable this week.

Future market forecast: Focus on the start-up of future manufacturers, there is no big change in downstream demand. According to the current overall market supply, domestic polyacrylamide market prices will not change very much.

Trade Name: Phenol

East China Market (July 17): 7600 yuan/ton

Analysis Points: Domestic phenol Market is stable in the weak trend. The market fundamentals fluctuate little. Although the holder has a strong intention, the downstream terminal participation in inquiries slows down, the supplier’s delivery is not smooth, the focus of gravity is weakening, and the delivery is not smooth. Business associations expect the domestic phenol Market to be inadequate today. The market price of phenol in East China refers to 7500-7550 yuan/ton.

According to statistics, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose this week, the price at the end of the week was 12080 yuan/ton, 0.08% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 6.59% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Products: This week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is tight. Recently, the situation of goods on the spot has improved. Some enterprises have a low start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant and a small rise in ex-factory price. Recently, the start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the supply on the site is tight. At present, the southern region is facing a shortage of hydrofluoric acid plant. The main stream of regional hydrofluoric acid negotiations is 12000-12500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11500-12500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen slightly, but in the near future, the downstream refrigerant industry has maintained a low start-up rate, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is tight, and the market price has risen slightly. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was about 11500-12000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 12000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 12000-12500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 11500-12000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly.

Industry chain: This week, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is rising. The price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is 3150 yuan/ton by the end of the week. This week, the price of fluorite is rising by 1.20%. The recent start of fluorite plant has not changed much. Overall, the supply of fluorite is tight, the price of fluorite is rising slightly, and the high price of raw materials in the upstream brings about the market To some extent, the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, the price of hydrofluoric acid products rose slightly. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, R22 refrigerant plant surface start at 60%, R22 market device start rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the shipping market trend is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid does not change much. Aluminum fluoride prices of downstream products have increased slightly recently, with a weekend value of 9666.67 yuan per ton. The price trend has increased slightly. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has increased slightly.

Industry: This week, the upstream raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is tight, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry trading market has improved, hydrofluoric acid market prices rose slightly.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate is normal, for hydrofluoric acid market demand is general, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, coupled with the rising trend of raw material market prices, business community hydrofluoric acid analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will maintain a small rise next week, hydrofluoric acid price will be about 12100 yuan/ton.