Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the cobalt price in February continued the previous downward trend. As of February 28, the quotation price of Cobalt City was 295833.34 yuan/ton, which was 29166.66 yuan/ton lower than that of February 1, 325000.00 yuan/ton. In February, the cobalt market had not improved, and the cobalt price still fell sharply. In February, the cobalt price fell by 8.97%. In view of the closure of the cobalt Market during the Spring Festival, the cobalt price fell rapidly in February, approaching June of 18 years, and the cobalt market continued to be depressed.

II. Market Analysis

Trend analysis

As can be seen from the above chart, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply in January 2019. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 91,000 and 96,000 respectively, an increase of 113% and 138% over the same period last year. The production and sales of new energy automobiles have maintained high growth, which has a positive impact on the rise of cobalt market. However, as the rise of new energy automobiles is difficult to offset the impact of the decline in mobile phone sales, the overall market of cobalt is negative in terms of demand.

International Cobalt Price

On February 27, MB low-grade cobalt quoted $15.35-16.4 per pound, down $3.025 per pound from $17.85-19.95 per pound in early February (February 6), while high-grade cobalt quoted $15.3-16.7 per pound, down $2.9 per pound from $17.8-20 per pound in early February (February 6). International cobalt prices fell sharply, but the decline eased compared with January. Cobalt market is still weak, but tends to be stable. Overall, international cobalt market is negative for domestic cobalt market.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, the price of cobalt fell sharply in February, but there is limited room for its decline. Although cobalt prices have continued to fall in the near future, there is a growing bullish voice. It is unlikely that cobalt prices will stop falling immediately and rise again, but the possibility of cobalt price fluctuation adjustment in the near future will rise. Now the cobalt price has fallen below the 300,000 yuan/ton mark, gradually approaching the historical low price range of cobalt price. On the supply side, cobalt mining continues to increase, cobalt ore supply increases, demand side, mobile phone sales decline, cobalt market demand is weak, although the growth of new energy vehicles brings about an increase in cobalt demand, but the overall cobalt demand is still declining. At present, both supply and demand are bad for Cobalt City, but there are still a lot of bullish voices in the market, which can be attributed to the following reasons: 1. The changing international political environment, the general election of Congo Kingdom Kong, and the unstable political environment have brought changes to the supply of Cobalt City; 2. Increasing mineral tax and cost of mining enterprises in Congo, Kinshasa, will inevitably lead to the rise of metal prices; 3. The game belt between African government and mining enterprises. In view of the government’s increasing tax revenue, mining enterprises may take measures to stop production or limit production to confront the uncertainty of cobalt supply in the future; 4. African workers’strike, workers’ strike continued to escalate, although it did not affect cobalt supply for the time being, but with the development of the situation, the supply and cost of cobalt mine will inevitably increase; 5, 5G mobile phone technology upgrading, mobile phone updating, mobile phone consumption or A sharp rise in demand for cobalt has brought good results. In summary, the cobalt market is still in the stage of oversupply at the present stage. The cobalt market is in a bad position. However, the future cobalt market changes still need real-time attention to the political dynamics and the renewal of mobile phone technology. In 2019, the cobalt market is bound to rebound, but now it seems that there is little room for the cobalt market to fall, and at the same time the strength of the rise is insufficient. Cobalt price is difficult to fall below the psychological level of 250,000 yuan/ton, but at the same time, the cobalt market is not fully motivated to rise, 350,000 yuan/ton is the current cobalt price difficult to reach the high level.

According to Dow Jones on February 14, senior journalist Amena Bakr of Energy Intelligence, a news and research service provider, tweeted that Saudi Arabia and the United States suspended oil production in Saffania, the world’s largest offshore oil field, this week, citing people familiar with the matter on Thursday. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said the potential impact on oil prices depends on how long the oil field shuts down. The oilfield produces heavy crude oil, while the current global market is short of heavy crude oil supply. Alex Schindelar, executive editor of Energy Intelligence’s content and strategy, said on Twitter Thursday that the oil market had unexpectedly reduced the supply of another 1 million barrels per day of heavy crude oil, and that the heavy crude oil market was already tight because of OPEC’s production cuts and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. As of February 13, the price of butadiene was 9,971 yuan per ton, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The price of butadiene from northeastern manufacturers has been lowered, and the delivery of butadiene from manufacturers is not smooth, which drags the market down. The bearish mood of the industry is obvious, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the butadiene market in Shandong Province. The price of butadiene in Northeast China has been lowered, and the delivery of butadiene by manufacturers is not smooth, which drags down the market. The hollow state of butadiene industry is obvious. East China butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the industry is cautious. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer $1110-1118 per ton; CFR China average offer $1095-1103 per ton.

Industry Chain: Styrene Butadiene Rubber: Shanghai Rubber is strong, and some enterprises have raised the price of some brands of Styrene Butadiene Rubber, but due to the poor butadiene, and because the industry is still in the process of returning to the market, the market of Styrene Butadiene Rubber is showing a shocky pattern, with little fluctuation in the offer and a small number of transactions. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is stable. With the increase of returning merchants, the offer increases and the price is stable. There are not many inquiries downstream, and the market is in a state of no market at all. SBS: There is no mainstream offer for oil glue and dry glue in domestic SBS market. Oil glue: PetroChina Eastern China and PetroChina North China oil glue slightly increased by 100 yuan/ton, but the merchants returned limited, wait-and-see mentality, downstream shoe enterprises during the holidays. In the aspect of dry rubber road reform, PetroChina has slightly increased its supply and price, and the merchants’mentality is flat. They are moderately single-minded and pay attention to the follow-up development of Sinopec dry rubber.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, demand is expected to recover gradually; on the negative side, external prices are weak and supply is abundant. Business Association butadiene analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to weaken downward trend, focusing on market turnover.

Price Trend

The domestic dimethyl ether market rose as a whole in January. At the beginning of the month, the average domestic dimethyl ether market price was 3220 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 3406.67 yuan/ton. The increase rate was 5.8% in the month, and the price fell 22.8% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The market of dimethyl ether rose in January as a whole. The market climate has changed from weak to strong. Hebei Yutai, Qinyang Shengxin, Henan Lankao Huitong, and other manufacturers do not quote parking prices at present, the overall market start-up rate slipped last month. As of January 31, the ex-factory price of Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether was 3480 yuan/ton, Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3700 yuan/ton, Shandong Dezhou Shengdeyuan Co., Ltd. was 3700 yuan/ton, and Shanxi Orchid Science and Technology Venture Co., Ltd. was 3420 yuan/ton.

In the aspect of industry chain, the trend of domestic methanol market differentiation is obvious in January. At the beginning of the month, the price of methanol was 2188 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of methanol was 2212 yuan/ton. The price of methanol rose by 1.10% in the month, which was 30.95% lower than that of the same period last year. In January, domestic liquefied gas market prices rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3900 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 3900 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The price was 12.85% lower than that of the same period last year.

At the beginning of this month, the liquefied petroleum gas market rose sharply, resulting in a continuous upward trend in market prices. In January, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was weaker and lower. With the resumption of production in early New Year’s Day, the supply of domestic dimethyl ether Market increased sharply. The end-users and downstream users mainly purchased on demand, the overall contradiction between supply and demand in the market was tense, and the warehouse pressure of most enterprises was on the high side. At the end of the month, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of end-user purchases increased sharply, but most manufacturers have no inventory, the market supply has been reduced, the trading atmosphere is booming, and the Pre-Inventory of some manufacturers has been released substantially, which promotes the overall price of the market to rise broadly.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 10 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in January 2019, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities are WTI crude oil (19.42%), Brent crude oil (14.59%) and MTBE (industrial grade) (6.69%). There are five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, three of which fall more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines are liquefied natural gas (-29.81%), petroleum coke (-9.97%) and coke (-5.12%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.77%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that: the Spring Festival is approaching, with downstream users delisting, the dimethyl ether Market is expected to be weak in the short term consolidation trend.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of Jan. 29, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12900 yuan/ton, and the overall market was running smoothly.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market is running steadily. North China and East China Wanhua negotiated 12600-12800 yuan/ton, Shanghai negotiated 12400-12500 yuan/ton, South China Wanhua negotiated 12800 yuan/ton and Shanghai negotiated 12500 yuan/ton. Market supply and demand are two weak, inquiry atmosphere is weak, the intention of middlemen is not high, Wanhua Crescent Listing was recently launched, the market is more cautious and wait-and-see, short-term market operation is light and stable.

On the market side, the aggregate MDI market in North China is running steadily. At present, the market festival atmosphere is strong, there are few active offers, and sporadic offers are stable. Wanhua is listed, and the industry holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. East China aggregate MDI market is weak and stable. Terminal delisting ahead of time, market inquiries are rare, on-site operators are less motivated to deliver goods, and there are few active offers. The market atmosphere of aggregate MDI in South China is weak. Middlemen and downstream are leaving the market one after another. The festival atmosphere in the market is strong, and most middlemen have no quotation.

Industry chain: raw materials, East China aniline Market horizontal consolidation. Before the festival, most of East China’s enterprises are mainly contract-based. Some enterprises have limited market volume, and downstream purchasing is mainly on demand. The market trading atmosphere is still acceptable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the factory has a limited capacity, the market is very tight spot, and the overhaul and recovery device has a low load. On the bearish side, terminal demand is weak, and the enthusiasm of downstream and middlemen to hoard goods is weakened after price increases. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts expect that in the short term aggregate MDI market rise and fall dilemma, mainly stalemate.

Price Trend

The propane market fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of propane was 4142.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 4107.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.84%, 17.23% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market fell slightly, and the trading atmosphere was general. As of January 25, propane of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Company and Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4100 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4130 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4150 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4150 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic liquefied gas market dropped broadly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas market was 4100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3890 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 5.12%, 17.7% compared with the same period last year. This week domestic propylene (Shandong) fell successively, and the average price of enterprises at the beginning of the week was also high at 8070 yuan per ton; the average price of enterprises at the weekend was low at 7810 yuan per ton; the price declined continuously after stabilizing in the week, with a drop of 3.22%. Saudi CP in January: $430 per ton of propane, down 15% from last month. Butane is $420/ton, up 5% from last month. This week, the liquefied petroleum gas market has fallen in succession, affecting the market mentality. The downstream bearish atmosphere is strong, just in need of replenishment, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the overall atmosphere is general. The shipment of manufacturer is blocked, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, inventory pressure, profit delivery.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 14 kinds of commodities on the rise-fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector in the 03rd week of 2019 (1.21-1.25). Among them, there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities with an increase are ethylene (9.38%), sulfuric acid (7.83%) and epichlorohydrin (4.59%). There are 25 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-6.04%), 1,4-butanediol (-4.83%) and sulfur (-4.19%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.2%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that the liquefied gas market is still weak, the market is lack of positive, February CP expected to decline, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, manufacturers storage and drainage demand. The market is expected to decline steadily in the future.

Melbourne, Jan. 23, Australian mining giant OZ Minerals announced Wednesday that gold and copper production in 2018 was better than expected, and raised its gold production forecast for 2019 because of better ore grade.

The company said gold production in 2018 was 135,647 ounces, of which 130,856 ounces were produced by the large Prominent Hill mine in southern Australia. Prominent Hill’s annual gold production was earlier estimated to be between 120,000 and 130,000 ounces.

In 2017, the mine produced 126,713 ounces of gold.

Oz said copper production in 2018 was 115,998 tons, of which 110,111 tons were from the large Prominent Hill mine, higher than the previously estimated range of 10-110,000 tons. The mine’s copper output in 2017 was 112,008 tons.

OZ Minerals said its gold production forecast for 2019 rose to 115-125,000 ounces, compared with the previous range of 100-110,000 ounces.

On January 23, the price of acetone in Europe was stable, and the price of FD in Northwest Europe was 647.5-652.5 euros/ton.

On January 21, the rare earth index was 345 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.50% from its cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 27.31% from its lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 398,000 yuan/ton, 1,655,000 yuan/ton and 660,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 315,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.21 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 397,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 399.5 million yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.22 million yuan per ton.

Recently, 12 departments have seriously dealt with illegal enterprises such as reselling illegal rare earth minerals, resulting in the cold trade in the domestic rare earth market. Some commodity prices in the rare earth market have declined, mainly concentrated in Praseodymium-Neodymium alloys and neodymium oxides. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a decline in the market of rare earth oxides, making the price of rare earth products firm. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of some commodities in the rare earth market is stable, the willingness of large enterprise groups to limit production in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but for the pricing of products, major manufacturers are cautious to wait and see. Recent rare earth export market is general, resulting in a decline in imports, which has a negative impact on the rare earth market. However, due to the limited volume, the price trend of some rare earth products has declined, but the price trend of most products is temporarily stable.

Eight inspecting groups composed of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Natural Resources and other ministries went to various places and launched special inspecting actions against eight provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan, which are the main producing areas of rare earths. Prior to this, six departments of Jiangxi Province, a major producer of rare earth, jointly issued a special action document on cracking down on rare earth blacks, and conducted special supervision from September 2018 to January 2019. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has been cold.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringent inspection will not decrease in the near future, and the domestic reorganization of the order of the inhalation industry will have a certain positive impact on the rare earth industry. However, near the Spring Festival, the turnover of the rare earth industry is limited, and the turnover of the rare earth industry is cold. The price trend of the rare earth market is expected to decline steadily.

According to the latest monthly report of the International Copper Industry Research Organization (ICsg), the global copper refining market was short of 15,000 tons in October 2018 and 161,000 tons in September 2018. ICSG report shows that in the first 10 months of 2018, the global copper refining market was short of 547,000 tons, compared with 224,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. In October 2018, the global output of refined copper was 1.98 million tons and the consumption was 1.99 million tons. In October, the copper stock gap of China’s tax declaration warehouse was 10,000 tons, and in September, it was 201,000 tons.