Moscow, September 7th, data released by Russian customs show that Russia’s aluminum and copper exports increased from January to July 2018, but nickel exports fell.

The following is the Russian export details of aluminum, nickel and copper from January to July 2018 provided by the Customs Service of the Russian Federation:

January-July 2018 January-July 2017
Export volume (1000 tons) Export volume (million USD) Export volume (1000 tons) Export value (million USD)
Copper 380.0 2,537.3 316.6 1,798.8
Nickel 77.1 1,062.1 81.7 767.7
Aluminum 1,754.8 3,183.6 1,708.3 2,824.0

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of nickel on September 3 was 107131.25 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the previous day and up 15.13% year-on-year.

Nickel prices have always been swaying with new energy demand and performing well. Although the trade war has been in full swing, nickel prices have been dominated by high prices. Today, it suddenly fell sharply. On the one hand, Trump expects the news of the increase of tariffs to continue to ferment. In the morning, the blacks drastically dragged down the overall market sentiment. On the other hand, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Development Center released 30 car companies to be stopped. At least one year after the production of new energy vehicles, the news came out, the market was in vain, and the news that the country stopped new energy vehicles was undoubtedly like a thunderstorm, which caused the nickel market to be shocked. The expected demand for nickel was greatly reduced, and the nickel price fell below the previous low.

Market outlook: The trade war and the Fed rate hike are still uncertain. The expectations of new energy vehicles for nickel demand have fallen short. Fortunately, in September, the demand for downstream stainless steel may increase, and nickel is supported. It is expected that nickel prices will be weak in the short term.

First, the price trend

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic chloroform continued to rise this week. The average price of chloroform at the beginning of the week was around 4,234 yuan/ton, and the average price of the weekend was about 4,362 yuan/ton, which rose by 3.02% during the week. It rose by 93.65% in the same period last year.

Second, the cause analysis

Product reasons: This week, the regional differences in domestic chloroform prices are still relatively large. Due to continuous heavy rain, the production and transportation of chloroform enterprises in Shandong are affected to varying degrees, such as Jinling Chemical’s 440,000 tons/year plant started 50%. Dongying Jinmao 120,000 tons / year device parking; Luxi Chemical 220,000 tons / year plant starts 7 to 80%; Jiangxi Leewen 80,000 tons / year device is operating normally, currently more self-use, low inventory; Jiangsu Lee Man 160,000 The ton/year plant started 50%, etc.; other large chloroform production enterprises mostly used for their own use, and the spot supply of chloroform was tight. At present, the price of Shandong is 4180-4370 yuan / ton, the Jiangsu area is 4650 yuan / ton, and the Jiangxi area is 4400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream, the methanol market volatility adjustment this week, a slight increase of 1.48% in the week, up 24.64% over the previous year, currently 2996 yuan / ton; liquid chlorine market is stable, liquid chlorine price in North China is 1-100 yuan / ton Between the two, the price of liquid chlorine in East China is between 50-100 yuan / ton, and enterprises are more discounted. The downstream refrigerant market was affected by the favorable export, and this week has picked up, the industry demand is still good, because the price of chloroform is at a high level, and the pharmaceutical and pesticide industries are buying light.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, in the 34th week of 2018 (8.20-8.24), the price of commodities in the list rose by 31 in the chemical sector, with a total of 31 commodities, of which more than 5% rose, accounting for the sector. The number of commodities monitored was 1.4%; the top 3 commodities were sulfuric acid (5.23%), phosphate ore (4.05%), and crude benzene (3.81%). There were 17 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 2 products with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 2.8% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were aggregated MDI (-6.65%) and polysilicon (-5.88%). ), acetic acid (-2.22%).

Third, the market outlook

At present, the overall operating rate of the chloroform market is low, the company’s inventory is low, and the export price is positive. The price of chloroform is high. The chloroform analysts of the business community believe that the chloroform market will be mainly stabilized in the short term. There is a possibility of a decline.

First, the price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash in this week was slightly adjusted. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic market was about 1,842.86 yuan / ton. The average domestic market price on the weekend was about 1828.57 yuan / ton, the price fell 0.78%, and the price rose 10.54% year-on-year. The light soda ash commodity index on August 17 was 93.77, which was the same as yesterday, which was 20.44% lower than the highest point of 117.86 points (2017-11-21) in the cycle, which was 48.49% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. . (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Second, market analysis

Product: This week, the domestic soda ash price overall showed a weak market. The light-alkali mainstream tax-included ex-factory price: Shandong factory is 1750-1800 yuan/ton; the local trade shipment price in Liaoning is about 1,800 yuan/ton, the terminal arrival is about 1850/ton; the Hebei area is 1700-1750 yuan/ Tons; the mainstream factory in Jiangsu Province is 1700-1750 yuan/ton; the Central China region is 1700-1750 yuan/ton; the Qinghai region is 1350-1420 yuan/ton; the southwest region is 1700-1750 yuan/ton. The mainstream of heavy alkali is included in the price of tax: At present, the mainstream of heavy alkali in the Shahe area is reduced to 1,600-1,650 yuan / ton. The overall domestic operating rate is around 80%.

Industry chain: The soda ash market is in the stage of taking the goods, and the market is slowing down. The demand for light soda ash users is not good, and the actual transaction focus tends to be flat. However, the overall price is still flexible. Environmental protection policies and international trade impacts, soda ash terminal demand is general. The recent price of heavy soda ash has been lower, the output of enterprises has shrunk, the supply side has tightened, the downstream demand has been measured, and the market price inversion has gradually reversed.

According to the data monitoring of business organizations, on August 16, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 7306.25 yuan / ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, up 48.60%.

On August 15th, the acetic anhydride commodity index was 144.55, which was 0.74 points higher than yesterday, which was 12.78% lower than the highest point of 165.73 points (2018-06-19) in the cycle, which was higher than the lowest point of 82.58 points on September 20, 2016. 75.04%. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On August 16, the domestic vinegar anhydride factory price rose, and the market transaction price rose. In most areas, the factory price is 6900-7400 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price rises, the actual transaction price is about 6800-7200 yuan / ton, the market price is the reference price, the actual transaction price is subject to actual negotiation.

Recently, the price of raw material acetic acid has risen, the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated, and the cost of acetic anhydride manufacturers has increased, which is good for the price increase of acetic anhydride. Recently, the inspection and maintenance plan for acetic anhydride plants has increased, the operating rate of equipment is not high, and acetic anhydride enterprises are basically out of stock. The operating rate of downstream customers has rebounded, and the demand for acetic anhydride is favorable. At the same time, the sharp rise in raw material prices and the decline in operating rates have provided fundamental support for the recovery of acetic anhydride prices. However, the market has limited acceptance of high-priced acetic anhydride, and the demand for acetic anhydride is limited. The price of acetic anhydride will not rise sharply in the short term. The price of acetic anhydride in the market is expected to rise slightly.

First, the price trend

Recently, the butadiene market has been ranked high. Business community monitoring showed that as of August 15, the price of butadiene was 12,890 yuan / ton, and the price rose by 45.36%.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market is high-level, the low-cost supply in the market is hard to find, the traders offer relatively firm, and the downstream just needs to be consulted. Recently, the supply of butadiene market is still tight. Shandong’s butadiene market is highly stocked, and low-cost goods are hard to find in the market. Some private manufacturers offer 12,900 yuan/ton, and the downstream enquiry is still okay. The butadiene market in East China is sideways, the market inquiry atmosphere is acceptable, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. Asian butadiene closing price, FOB Korea average price of 1756 US dollars / ton; CFR China average price offer 1755.5 US dollars / ton.

Industry chain: In the downstream, the domestic styrene-butadiene rubber market fluctuated. Butadiene is strong to provide support, but due to weak and lack of confidence, the industry’s offer has fluctuated, trading a small amount and the actual transaction price in some areas is slightly loose. Butadiene rubber, the domestic market for butadiene rubber is stable. The on-market merchants’ orders were stable, and sporadic buyers entered the market for enquiries. The negotiated and transaction prices were compressed at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was scarce. SBS: The domestic SBS market oil gel has fallen partially, and the dry rubber road has been upgraded to a high level. The atmosphere in the market is dull.

Third, the market outlook

On the positive side, the supply of butadiene market is still tight, and the operating load of some private enterprises is low. On the negative side, downstream buyers have limited ability to accept high prices, the price of US dollars is close to that of RMB, the window of export arbitrage is closed, the downstream synthetic rubber industry is in a downturn, and the downstream latex industry is in a downturn. The butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the supply of butadiene in the market is still tight, and the domestic butadiene market remains consolidating, paying attention to the actual transaction.

First, the price trend
According to the data of the business community’s big list, the domestic dry-process aluminum fluoride market price has been lowered slightly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 10,485 yuan/ton, the weekend was 10,433 yuan/ton, and the price was lowered by 0.50%.

Second, the market analysis

The price of aluminum fluoride was slightly lowered this week: Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. has a factory price of 11,000 yuan/ton, and Shandong Luzeng Chemicals has a factory price of 11,000 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. The price of aluminum fluoride is 9,500 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Jiaozuo Ciuli Industrial Co., Ltd. is 11,000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream hydrofluoric acid: According to statistics, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined slightly in the near future. The domestic hydrofluoric acid operating rate is around 70%. The company reflects that the current supply of hydrofluoric acid in the market is sufficient, and the market is in the near future. Some enterprises have seen a slight decline in ex-factory prices. As of now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is about 10,500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,500-11,000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower, the supply of spot goods is normal, and the recent downstream receiving market is generally low. The purchase of hydrogen fluoride market has weakened slightly, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has declined slightly. Downstream electrolytic aluminum: The price of electrolytic aluminum was slightly adjusted this week. The price at the beginning of the week was at 14,335 yuan/ton, the weekend was 14,672, and the price was lowered by 2.35%.

Third, the market outlook

The analyst of the aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical industry branch of the business community believes that the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower, and the downstream demand for aluminum fluoride is not good.

At the beginning of August, the autumn compound fertilizer market entered a stalemate. In the near future, most compound fertilizer companies are constantly adjusting prices and policies according to raw materials, but downstream distributors do not seem to buy it, especially in the recent fluctuations in raw material prices, so they are trapped. Can the compound fertilizer in the difficult situation break through the cage and reinvigorate?

Can urea expected by compound fertilizer companies enter a rebound period? Recently, many people in the market are paying close attention to the price trend of urea. Overall, the urea market has remained stable overall, with low-end small gains of 30-50 yuan/ton, and high-end small declines. Recently, low-end urea has received more funds, mainly concentrated. In Hebei, the mainstream price of small granular urea in Hebei is about 1810-1840 yuan / ton, while the low-cost supply in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is also ready to rise, the overall operating rate is about 52%, although the market has signs of rebound, However, the large agricultural companies in many provinces have not started a large number of operations, and the market will remain stagnant for a period of time. In the short term, the market will remain stable, and the local low-end will rise slightly. In mid-August, it will be a key observation period, so once it is large Operation begins, and confidence in downstream fertilizer reserves increases, so confidence in the downstream of the compound fertilizer will also be boosted.

Can the ammonium, the main raw material of autumn fertilizer, continue to rise? Recently, the price of a mono-ammonium enterprise is relatively strong. The mainstream price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei is about 2200-2250 yuan/ton, and the actual acceptance is about 2140-2200 yuan/ton. Recently, the environmental protection group “reviewed” once again entered the Hubei area. In the short term, it has not caused a big impact on the mono-ammonium enterprises. However, the raw material sulfur is supported by the rising US dollar exchange rate and downstream demand, and the price is 5-10 yuan/ton per day. In the upward adjustment. However, the compound fertilizer company has more sufficient pre-purchasing of monoammonium, which has reached 70%. In the short-term, the demand space is not large. If the raw materials continue to be bullish in the later period, the large-ammonium enterprises may increase their prices, but the actual transaction The increase will not be too big.

In summary, the raw materials are mixed, and the cost increase for compound fertilizer companies is not large. However, due to the low-priced explosives of some compound fertilizer companies last month, the fertilizer situation in autumn is more chaotic, and the price of urea in the near future is higher. Low, the confidence of downstream fertilizer is difficult to boost, when can regain the confidence of autumn fertilizer, I am afraid to expect a sharp rebound in urea prices, but the recent environmental protection efforts have been upgraded again, the second half of the company’s sharp recovery is still difficult, so in demand At the time of centralized start-up, if we can support the new situation with the help of NPK, natural gas and environmental protection, we will wait and see.

First, the price trend

In July, the domestic DME market fell as a whole, and the shock was dominant. At the beginning of the month, the average domestic market price of DME was 4375.00 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 4363.75 yuan/ton. The monthly decline was 0.26%, and the price increased by 30.09% compared with the same period of last year.

Second, the market analysis

Product: The market for DME in July was lowered. The operating rate this month is still not high. Hebei Yutai and other manufacturers currently do not offer parking, Henan Lankao Huitong on June 16 driving quote. As of July 31, Henan Lancao Huitong dimethyl ether ex-factory price was 3950 yuan / ton, Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether ex-factory price was 3940 yuan / ton, Hebei Hunchun Chemical Co., Ltd. dimethyl ether ex-factory price was 3900 yuan / ton The ex-factory price of DME of Shengdeyuan Company of Shandong Dezhou is 3870 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether of Shanxi Orchid Technology Technology Co., Ltd. is 3730 yuan/ton.

In the industrial chain: in July, the methanol market first rose and then fell, and the overall increase. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of methanol at the beginning of the month was 2,722 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol at the end of the month was 2,793 yuan/ton. The monthly increase was 2.62%, and the price rose by 23.62% compared with the same period of last year. In July, the domestic LPG market price rose all the way. At the beginning of the month, the average domestic LPG market price was 4115.00 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the month was 4412.5 yuan / ton, the monthly increase was 7.23%, the price increased by 32.88% compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of dimethyl ether this month has increased from last month. In the early stage, due to the low season of traditional sales, downstream stocks continued to digest slowly, and the overall supply of the market was excessive. The price fluctuated lower. In the latter stage, the number of entering the market increased slightly under the influence of the “fear of rising” mentality. The prices of domestic enterprises have risen steadily, but the weather is hot, the downstream inventory digestion continues to be slow, the overall purchasing enthusiasm is slightly cautious, and the dimethyl ether price has limited upside.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, there were 9 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose in the price of commodity prices in July 2018, of which 2 products were increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% ​​of the monitored products in the sector. The top 3 commodities were liquefied natural gas (21.65%), liquefied gas (7.23%) and diesel (3.16%). There were 7 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 2 products with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% ​​of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were coke (-13.09%) and thermal coal (closing price). ) (-9.24%), WTI crude oil (-4.52%). This month’s average price increase and decrease was 0.83%.

Third, the market outlook

With the advent of August, market demand is expected to increase, the overall market price is expected to be transferred to the upward channel again according to the practice, and the raw material methanol and liquefied gas market is firm, which is good for the dimethyl ether market. The market for dimethyl ether is expected to be bullish.

US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, and international oil prices fell on the 1st.

According to a report released by the US Energy Information Administration on the 1st, as of the week of July 27, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations.

As of the close of the day, the light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.10 to close at $67.66 a barrel, a decrease of 1.60%. London Brent crude oil futures for October delivery fell $1.82 to close at $72.39 a barrel, down 2.45%.