According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 27th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.23% compared to the price on April 1st.

The acrylic acid market slightly declined in April. In the early days, the price of raw material propylene was narrowed, with some support from the cost side and an increase in supply side operating rates. However, downstream enterprises have low operating loads, and some are just in need of buying on dips. The market mentality is cautious, and the price center of acrylic acid has declined. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell, with limited cost impact. Some factories on the supply side have completed maintenance, and downstream procurement is mainly in demand. The market trading atmosphere is average, and acrylic acid companies’ prices are mainly stable, while some companies’ prices are adjusted. In the latter half of the year, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and sorted out, with little impact on the cost side. Downstream stores were prepared according to demand before festivals, and market negotiations were mild and orderly. The price center of acrylic acid was mainly stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 26th, the reference price for propylene was 7130.60, a decrease of 0.11% compared to April 1st (7138.60).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support is still acceptable, with downstream inquiries and purchases mainly in demand. The market atmosphere is average, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may be on the sidelines for consolidation in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 26, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 15080 yuan/ton, and on April 1 (the silicone DMC reference was 15760 yuan/ton), the price fell 680 yuan/ton, or 4.31%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since April (04.1-4.27), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a weak and declining trend. At the beginning of April, organic silicon DMC experienced a small stage of stocking in the downstream market. With some improvement in downstream demand, the focus of the organic silicon DMC market briefly moved upwards,. However, after the phased demand, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC has generally returned to a cold state. Starting from April 7th, the organic silicon DMC market has experienced a continuous decline due to the cold weather. As of April 18th, the low price of the domestic organic silicon DMC market has fallen below the 15000 yuan/ton mark. Subsequently, the organic silicon DMC market started consolidation operation. On the one hand, it was the pressure of cost, and on the other hand, it was the fatigue of demand. The organic silicon DMC market had limited adjustment for rise and fall, and the overall market was stable. As of April 26, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price was around 14800-15500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is average, and the news on the market is relatively calm. As the May Day holiday approaches, it remains to be seen whether the market can usher in a wave of price trends. The organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly operate steadily and slightly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 25th, the price of PET water bottle level is relatively strong, with an average price of 7896.00 yuan/ton. This week, PET prices have remained stable, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. The mainstream price is around 7800 yuan/ton, and the overall focus of market negotiations is stable.

This week, the domestic PET price has been running smoothly, with the mainstream price currently around 7800 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable and strong, and the focus of negotiations is stable. Manufacturers are actively shipping, and downstream procurement is on demand. Logistics is smooth, and manufacturers are offering discounts and orders. PET enterprise quotations include Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. at 7750 yuan/ton, Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. at 7700 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang Wankai at 7400 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On April 24th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 679 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 28.60% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily in the short term.

This week (4.17-4.24), the market for butadiene rubber slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 24th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 11340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.70% from last Monday’s 11150 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has strengthened compared to the previous period; During the cycle, the factory price of polybutadiene rubber supplier polybutadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the merchant’s quotation slightly increased. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 24th, the factory price of butadiene rubber at Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11100 yuan/ton. As of April 24th, Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan and other mainstream markets of butadiene rubber in East China reported 11200-11450 yuan/ton.

The supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is temporarily stable this week (4.17-4.24).

This week (4.17-4.24), the price of raw material butadiene has increased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has strengthened compared to the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of butadiene was 8784 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.77% from last Monday’s 8384 yuan/ton.

This week (4.17-4.24), the natural rubber market fluctuated narrowly, and the impact on butadiene rubber continued to be biased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of natural rubber was 11400 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.09% from last Monday’s 11410 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 11520 yuan/ton.

This week (4.17-4.24), downstream tire production fluctuated slightly, with a strong demand for rubber support but no significant increase. It is understood that as of mid April 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that although some butadiene rubber plants have been shut down recently, the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber will be slightly alleviated in the short term; Downstream construction has remained stable, but due to the low price of natural rubber, the procurement of butadiene rubber is not good, and it is expected that the low price of butadiene rubber will consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the average price quoted by domestic top grade DMF enterprises was 5425 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.46% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the overall market is stable and strong, with smooth shipments.

This week, the DMF trend is stable, moderate to strong, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. Currently, the mainstream price range is around 5400 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is mainly stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and downstream purchases are made on demand. Merchants are willing to make concessions and take orders, and shipments are normal.

Chemical Index: On April 22, the chemical index stood at 907 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 51.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the “V” shaped trend of the 1 # tin ingot market in East China this week (4.07-4.14) was observed. On April 7th, the average market price was 196000 yuan/ton, and on April 14th, the average market price was 197160 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.59%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been fluctuating frequently recently and the overall trend is weak.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai Tin fell first and then rose this week. On the 13th, the US dollar index fell 0.51% to 101.01, the lowest point in nearly two months. Thursday’s data showed a slowdown in US inflation, boosting the metal market, and the metal market rose generally. As of the close on the 14th, the main 2305 contract of Shanghai Tin rose 2.52% in a single day.

Fundamentally speaking, there is not much change in domestic supply and demand at present. The mentality of high prices in smelters still exists, and the overall domestic production remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. The supply at the mining end is still slightly tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and there are few signs of recovery in the short term. However, recent domestic inventory has slightly declined overall, which has boosted tin prices to some extent. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and it is expected that the overall operation of the tin market will remain weak due to the lack of actual demand support. In the short term, the impact of domestic macro factors on tin prices is still limited, and it is necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On April 15th, the base metal index stood at 1229 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.43% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.

Zinc prices slightly increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 14th, the zinc price was 22436 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.27% compared to April 7th’s zinc price of 22154 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 1.52% compared to April 1st’s zinc price of 22782 yuan/ton. US inflation data has fallen, international market conditions are expected to improve, and zinc prices have slightly increased this week.

US inflation growth rate data has fallen

On Wednesday, the US March CPI data was released and the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes were released. The US March CPI rose by 5% year-on-year, with an expected 5.2%, the lowest since May 2021 and the ninth consecutive month of slower growth; The month on month increase is 0.1%, with an expected 0.2%. The US CPI in March decreased from 6.0% in February to 5.0%, indicating a significant decline in US inflation growth data, a significant decline in the US dollar index, and a rebound in international market economic expectations.

>Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the growth rate of inflation in the United States has fallen, the international market economy is expected to warm up, the zinc price in the London LME market has increased, and the upward momentum of zinc prices in the domestic zinc market has increased. China’s imports and exports have gradually rebounded, with an increase in downstream zinc oxide orders and a rebound in downstream demand in the zinc market. Yunnan’s recent power shortage is expected to lead to a decrease in zinc smelting operations in the future, and the supply of zinc in the market is expected to be tight. Overall, the supply of zinc in the future is tight, and demand is expected to rebound. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

The butadiene rubber market saw a significant decline in March. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene rubber was 11220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.27% from the beginning of the month at 12100 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has weakened; In March, the construction of downstream tire factories fluctuated slightly, and the new demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak. In the late March, the market turnover was light, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber dropped significantly, and the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell.

Supply side: The supply side of butadiene rubber fluctuated slightly in March. The supply of butadiene rubber increased slightly in the later stage.

Cost side: In March, the price of butadiene decreased, while the cost side of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber significantly decreased. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 8551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.96% from 9712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market fell in March, which had a bearish impact on butadiene rubber. As of March 31st, the price was at 11525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 12020 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The operating rate of downstream tire enterprises in March has temporarily remained around 70%, and there has been no significant increase in demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, the low price of natural rubber makes cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber even less advantageous. The demand side for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in March was mainly weak.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that downstream construction has not significantly improved the demand for butadiene rubber. In the short term, the demand for butadiene rubber is weak, and raw material prices are low. The cost of butadiene rubber is declining. However, multiple oil producing countries are jointly reducing production, and international crude oil prices may be operating at high levels. The cost of butadiene rubber may be further supported. Overall, it is expected that butadiene rubber will consolidate weakly in the short term, and there is still an upward opportunity in the medium to long term.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refiners in March was 2806.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 1626.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month. During the month, it fell by 1180 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 42.05%.

The petroleum coke commodity index on March 31 was 126.51, down 1.94 points from yesterday, down 69.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 89.13% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In March, the price of refined petroleum coke plummeted by more than 42%. The storage of petroleum coke in domestic ports is at a high level, and port traders are actively selling imported petroleum coke to recover funds. However, recently, imported petroleum coke has gradually arrived and warehoused in ports, making it difficult to change the high storage trend of petroleum coke in ports. The operating rate of delayed coking units in China remains high, with sufficient market supply. Local refineries actively reduce prices and arrange inventory, resulting in poor delivery and investment. Currently, the petroleum coke market is in a situation of oversupply.

In early March, the price of crude oil rose, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, had a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.

In 2023, the downstream metal silicon spot market continues to decline, and market transactions are light. In a short period of time, the weak situation of metal silicon is difficult to change. Southwest Silicon Plant suffered a comprehensive loss and increased shutdown and maintenance. Recently, Yunnan issued a notice on the special rectification work plan for safety production, and silicon enterprises in Yunnan have been involved. Currently, due to the continuous downward impact of the petroleum coke market, the calcined coke market continues to decline, with a decline of over 40% since 2023. Aluminum carbon companies are in a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly purchasing on demand, mainly consuming pre inventory, and with limited support for the local refining petroleum coke market. The terminal spot electrolytic aluminum market has recently reduced production in Yunnan-Guizhou region, but the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is still relatively high, with a trend of destocking. On the 31st, the spot price was 18676.67 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

The petroleum coke analyst from Business News predicts that the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports is currently at a high level for a long time, with a stable operation rate of delayed coking units in China, sufficient market supply, limited procurement at the downstream demand end, and excessive market supply. In the near future, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market will continue. Local refining enterprises are actively reducing prices to inventory, and prices continue to plummet in late March. Some local refining enterprises are closing their stocks and waiting. On the 31st, the petroleum coke refining market was mixed, with some easing in the decline. It is expected that the petroleum coke refining market in the near future may be dominated by weakness.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weak in March. From March 1st to 30th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 9483 yuan/ton to 9440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%, with a maximum amplitude of 1.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.09%.

At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene rose, with upward cost support. The supply of cyclohexanone has decreased, and manufacturers have raised their external quotations. However, the demand for cyclohexanone in the downstream market is mainly high, and the market transaction is average. Therefore, the market growth of cyclohexanone is limited. In the first ten days of this month, the raw material pure benzene was relatively strong, with good cost support. At the same time, some cyclohexanone shipments decreased, resulting in good supply, but terminal demand was weak. Downstream chemical fibers just needed to follow up, and the transaction was average. In the middle of June, the raw material pure benzene significantly decreased, and cost support weakened. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are just in need of procurement, and the actual price per unit is weakening. Near the end of the month, the spot price of raw material pure benzene was weak and volatile, and cost support weakened. At the same time, some manufacturers increased their supply, while downstream demand was general, the industry’s mentality was weak, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market fell.

On the cost side, on March 30, the benchmark price of pure benzene for the business community was 7213.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.55% compared to the beginning of this month (7103.83 yuan/ton). The domestic market price of pure benzene has increased slightly, and the production has decreased. Pure benzene has been removed from warehouses in East China ports, and there are still maintenance plans for later supply devices, easing the pressure on domestic pure benzene supply. The cost of cyclohexanone is significantly positive.

On the supply side, the unit operating rate in the cyclohexanone industry remained at around 70%, with a slight increase in supply. The main production enterprise, Shanxi Lanhua, is scheduled to stop for maintenance on February 28th, with a plan of one month; Jining Bank of China parking and maintenance; Shutdown and maintenance of Shijiazhuang coking unit. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone was slightly negative.

On the demand side, on March 30, the benchmark price of caprolactam for the business community was 12100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.82% compared to the beginning of this month (12200.00 yuan/ton). The price of caprolactam, the main downstream product of cyclohexanone, fell. The recent weakening of upstream crude oil prices has affected the purchasing mentality in the downstream market. The overall caprolactam market is still cautious. In addition, some enterprises in the north have increased inventory pressure and partially reduced prices for sales. The overall price center of the cyclohexanone spot market is tending to be lower. The demand side for cyclohexanone was negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, cyclohexanone analysts from the business agency predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market volatility will be dominated by consolidation.