1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has risen sharply this week. On May 12th, the market price of aniline was 7032 yuan/ton, and on May 16th it was 7620 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8.43% during the period and a decrease of 32.33% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
This week, the aniline market in Shandong has been boosted by costs, with prices rising significantly from weak to strong. During the week, both China and the United States reached an agreement to reduce tariffs, which is beneficial for the commodity market. The raw material pure benzene continues to strengthen, and the listing of pure benzene continues to rise, boosting market confidence. Aniline prices have risen accordingly. The trading atmosphere in the venue has improved, with a focus on essential needs.
Cost wise: The high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States have reached a consensus, and market concerns about the risk of trade disputes have weakened, leading to an increase in international oil prices. Affected by macro positive factors and the rise in external prices of pure benzene, market sentiment has rapidly improved, and pure benzene industry players have good confidence, leading to a continuous increase in pure benzene prices.
3、 Future expectations
The current price of pure benzene raw material has risen to a high level, and whether it can continue to rise depends on market feedback. Downstream demand for aniline remains high, and the speed of high priced goods is slowing down. It is expected that the aniline market will digest and consolidate in the short term.

On May 12th, the market price of epichlorohydrin remained stable. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 12th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 8900 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.11% compared to early May.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The market for raw material propylene glycerol is mainly fluctuating and consolidating. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6653.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6570.75 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market supply remains normal, with a capacity utilization rate of over 50%. But the terminal demand is weak, trading is not smooth, and the main focus is on purchasing for essential needs. Overall, the demand for epichlorohydrin has weakened, with weak upward momentum and mainly stable operation.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that downstream market demand is weak, traders’ purchasing mentality is not positive, and market trading is not smooth. It is predicted that the epoxy chloropropane market will experience weak growth in the later stage or continue to operate steadily, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has been actively pushing up this week. As of May 9th, the average market price in East China was 11166 yuan/ton, and as of May 5th, the average price was 10733 yuan/ton. Within the week, it increased by 4.04% and decreased by 24.55% year-on-year.

This week, the TDI market has shown a strong trend. The maintenance of major factories in Shanghai is imminent, and there have been frequent news of price increases from mainstream factories. Under the expectation of reduced supply, suppliers are actively pushing up prices, while intermediaries are raising their prices. The attitude towards downstream market entry is cautious, with a focus on essential needs. There is a shortage of new orders in the market, and high priced goods lack actual order support. The market needs support from the demand side.
Supply side: Wanhua and Gansu are operating at medium to high loads, while BASF has maintenance plans.
Cost wise: The price of toluene continues to decline, with an average price of 5390 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5292 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.85% during the week. Downstream demand is dominant, with average enthusiasm for entering the market.
According to the analysis of the future market, TDI data analysts from Shengyi Society believe that after the holiday, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and some are more resistant to high priced goods. It is expected that the TDI market will mainly digest the increase in the short term and maintain a range oscillation operation.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been running weakly this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1498 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1290.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.86% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.24%. On April 29th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 85.90, unchanged from yesterday and hitting a historic low for the cycle, a decrease of 63.58% from the highest point of 235.84 on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1300-1450 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1400-1600 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1434 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% compared to the same period last year, which was 30.64%.
Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with the overall weak performance of upstream raw material soda ash in March. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4160 yuan/ton, and the DMF market as a whole rose by 1.16% in April. Currently, the supply and demand in the DMF market are balanced, and the upward space is limited.
2、 Market analysis
Operating rate: In April, the overall operating rate of the DMF industry was 65%, a decrease of 5% compared to the previous month. There was an increase in equipment maintenance in Shandong, Henan and other places. In terms of demand, downstream terminal demand was weak, and the operating rate was 60%. In terms of agricultural demand, spring plowing and stocking have ended, and the procurement rate has decreased. Export prices have declined, and Southeast Asian market quotations have fallen.
Cost side: The raw material methanol quotation is running weakly, and the DMF cost side lacks favorable support, with normal shipments and average inventory.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in May, with prices maintaining their current trend. In May, some companies reported maintenance news, which will help alleviate inventory pressure.

The domestic fluorite price trend declined in April, with an average price of 3712.5 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.66% from the beginning price of 3775 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.02%.
Supply side: Some manufacturers have started production, and the supply of fluorite has increased

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. However, as the temperature rises, northern enterprises are gradually starting production, and the supply of fluorite from on-site enterprises has increased, resulting in a decline in the fluorite market in April.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
In April, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid declined, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 11500-12000 yuan/ton. Some downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not actively purchasing raw fluorite, and recently some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have seen a decline in prices. This news has affected the downward trend of fluorite prices.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of purchasing at high prices is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up in April is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market trend is temporarily stable, while the fluorite market trend is declining.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, in some areas, the lack of active fluorite procurement has led to an increase in inventory. In addition, downstream hydrofluoric acid prices have fallen, and there is a serious resistance to high priced fluorite. Hydrofluorite enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually increased. Overall, the fluorite market price is prone to decline but difficult to rise in the short term.

This week, the overall price of polyester filament has shown a downward trend. As we enter the weekend, manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to sell at low prices, and local discounts have narrowed. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 27th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6300-6500 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7500-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Since mid April, the polyester industry has ushered in a new round of plant shutdown and maintenance, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has shown a slight downward trend, gradually falling from 95.39% in early April to 92.88%. However, the polyester filament industry has shown strong resilience, with an overall operating rate of over 90% and a stable capacity utilization rate of around 94%. Although some facilities have been shut down, the overall production capacity of the industry is huge, and the market supply is still sufficient. In this context, enterprises are adopting price reduction and promotion strategies to compete for limited market share, attempting to stimulate sales through price advantages, reflecting the severe situation of oversupply in the current polyester market.
On the demand side: Although downstream industries have seen some degree of recovery in operating rates after the holiday, the overall level is still relatively low. As of Friday, the operating rates of loading, weaving, and printing and dyeing in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions were only 70%, 65%, and 71% respectively, which intuitively reveals the weak trend of the downstream textile industry. Affected by sluggish market demand, downstream textile enterprises have significantly reduced their order volume, resulting in a severe contraction in the demand for polyester filament procurement. At present, the procurement strategy of enterprises is highly cautious, mainly focusing on meeting urgent needs and restocking, and large-scale hoarding behavior is rare. This cautious purchasing attitude directly leads to a sustained downturn in the demand side of the polyester filament market, making it difficult to form strong support for prices.
Cost side: PTA and ethylene glycol, as the core raw materials for polyester filament production, have a significant impact on the cost of polyester filament due to their price trends. Recently, the PTA market has experienced frequent price fluctuations and lacks clear directional guidance; The price of ethylene glycol remained relatively stable without significant fluctuations. Overall, the raw material market is in a period of fluctuation and adjustment, which has failed to provide solid cost support for the price of polyester filament. The weak performance on the cost side has led to a lack of upward momentum in the pricing of polyester filament, further exacerbating the weak market situation.
International trade: The uncertainty of the international trade environment, especially the issue of tariffs, has brought huge challenges to China’s textile exports. As an important export destination for Chinese textiles, the US market has become cautious about importing Chinese textiles due to tariff issues. Textile enterprises are facing the dilemma of highly uncertain future order volumes, so they are naturally more cautious when purchasing raw materials such as polyester filament. This cautious sentiment has spread within the industry, further suppressing the market demand for polyester filament and exacerbating the already sluggish domestic market.
Overall, the polyester industry is currently facing multiple challenges, including sustained supply pressure, weak demand recovery, limited cost support, and a complex and ever-changing international trade environment. Business Society believes that in the short term, the price of polyester filament may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and in the future, it is necessary to focus on the trend of crude oil, the pace of terminal order recovery, and enterprise differentiation strategies.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 829.2 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 822 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 2.24%. On April 24th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 795 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 43.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 32.94% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 770-880 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 880-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). Caustic soda causes weak operation, with sufficient supply from caustic soda enterprises and average downstream demand, resulting in a weak operating market for caustic soda prices.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak in the operating market, and the downstream demand in China has been average, with no positive support. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has been weak and stabilizing since mid April. On April 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 683 yuan/ton. On April 21st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 686 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.49%.

Supply reduction, hydrogen peroxide market stabilizing
Since mid April, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has been average, and some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in supply pressure. The price of hydrogen peroxide has remained weak and stable, with the average domestic market price falling to around 680 yuan/ton and a price increase of 10-20 yuan/ton. The hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded, with improved market transactions and a slight increase in prices.
Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that at the end of April, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry increased, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply decreased. It is expected that the market will rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of TDI in the domestic market has been continuously declining recently. Currently, the price of domestically produced TDI products is around 10000-10400 yuan/ton, while the price of Shanghai products is around 10500-10600 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient spot supply, but downstream demand continues to be poor. With an oversupply situation, the market atmosphere is pessimistic and there is a lack of trading volume. The news is bleak and lacks positive support, so it is expected that the TDI market will remain weak in the near future.