According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will decline in May 2025, with an average price of 16790 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.88%.

On May 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 100.27, a decrease of 1.18 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.18% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and an increase of 34.36% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of May, due to fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment, lead prices showed a weak start. Afterwards, it gradually stabilized and rebounded in the middle of the month, with fluctuations. A significant pullback at the end of the month broke through the recent low prices.
supply end
At the beginning of the month, the output of primary lead smelting enterprises remained stable, and there was no significant reduction in the overall supply of the lead market.
In the middle of the month, the field of native lead was somewhat impacted. Due to the promotion of environmental inspections and safety production rectification work in some lead mining areas, mining activities have been restricted, which directly leads to a tight supply of lead concentrate. As a result, some primary lead smelting enterprises have had to reduce their production load due to insufficient raw material supply, leading to a significant slowdown in the supply growth rate of the primary lead market. At the same time, the overall growth rate of recycled lead production is relatively limited, making it difficult to fill the rapidly growing demand gap in the market. In this context, lead prices have fluctuated and gradually rebounded.
By the end of the month, although the supply side showed a contraction trend, the weak performance on the demand side was more prominent. The contraction of the supply side’s support for lead prices is difficult to effectively manifest, and the overall supply pattern of the market is still in a loose state, resulting in a pullback in lead prices.
demand side
At present, it is the off-season for lead consumption, and the demand situation of downstream lead-acid battery enterprises is relatively weak. The number of new orders in the terminal market continues to be low, and the operational enthusiasm of production enterprises is generally not high. After resuming production, some enterprises did not reach full capacity and instead arranged production plans based on sales, maintaining a “sales based production” business model. The procurement of raw materials only met basic production needs and adopted a rigid procurement strategy.
Prediction of future trends
It is expected that lead prices will exhibit a volatile trend in the future. From the supply side, the scale of production reduction for recycled lead is gradually expanding due to the tight supply of raw materials; At the same time, some refineries in the primary lead field are undergoing maintenance, which to some extent provides support for lead prices. However, the demand side is currently in the off-season, and battery companies are cautious in their procurement attitudes. Additionally, there is significant pressure from inventory backlog, which in turn puts downward pressure on lead prices.