According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 28th to December 5th (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China first increased from 2115 yuan/ton and then fell to around 20755 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.89% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.64%. The narrow decline in port methanol inventory in the first half of the week, coupled with the expected improvement in market inventory, has boosted market sentiment, and the overall port methanol market is mainly operating strongly. As the weekend approaches, downstream inventory is high and purchasing enthusiasm is gradually declining, with methanol market mainly weak.

As of the close on December 5th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2113 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2121 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2069 yuan/ton. It closed at 2077 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 41 yuan or 1.94% from the previous trading day’s settlement. Trading volume 1004115, open position 872092, daily increase position -62591.
On the cost side, the recovery of coal demand is weak, inventory levels continue to rise, prices fluctuate weakly, and cost support is weak and stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, the MTO device has a strong load, and traditional downstream winter season restrictions limit production, making it difficult for demand to increase. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
Supply side, equipment maintenance; The overall loss exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 4th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5-90.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
Future forecast: With the rising operating rate of the methanol industry in the later stage, the supply of spot goods in mainland China is expected to increase. Business Society’s methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market will still be weak.