1、 Current price trend

spot price
At the beginning of the month, it fluctuated around 6300 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, with the rise of crude oil costs and the strengthening of downstream resumption expectations, it gradually rebounded to above 6400 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, it was reported at 6411 yuan/ton (the benchmark price of Shengyi Society), up about 1.8% from the beginning of the month, showing an overall trend of first suppression and then rise, with a strong range.
Main Contract:
Following the resonance of spot prices, it fluctuated around 6300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and quickly rose in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, it was reported at 6470 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2.7% compared to the beginning of the month. Futures prices were slightly higher than spot prices, reflecting the market’s optimism towards short-term trends.
Recent contracts:
The volatility is more intense, with multiple ups and downs within the month, following the rhythm of the main contract as a whole, reflecting short-term financial games and emotional changes.
2、 Main basis rate
Since February, the basis rate has fluctuated narrowly around the zero axis, mostly within the range of -2% to+3%. On February 12th and 21st, it rebounded to 2.59% and 1.96% respectively, and turned negative again at the end of the month. Futures slightly increased in price compared to spot, indicating a close linkage between futures and cash, and the market’s pricing for cost increases and resumption of work expectations is relatively sufficient.
Long term average: As of February 27, 2026, the 180 day average basis rate of propylene is 2.73%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 2.49%. The current basis rate is within a reasonable repair range and has not shown extreme deviation.
Overall, the fluctuation of the main basis rate of propylene in February accurately reflects the rise in costs, changes in supply and demand patterns, and the evolution of market expectations, providing important references for judging the relationship between the present and future market trends.
3、 Core driver
1. Cost side: The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to Brent crude oil hitting a high of $83 per barrel this month, up about 4.2% from the beginning of the month, driving up the cost of propane raw materials and providing strong support for propylene prices.
2. Supply side: The operating load of domestic propylene plants remains at 78.44%, with a slight decrease of 0.30% in the weekly cycle ratio. The maintenance of PDH plants continues, and the pace of releasing new production capacity slows down. The market commodity volume remains stable and there is no centralized supply pressure.
3. Demand side: The operating rates of downstream PP, octanol, and acrylonitrile have increased by 3-5 percentage points compared to the previous period, and the resumption rate of packaging, film, plastic weaving and other fields has exceeded 85%. The demand for replenishment of essential inventory is gradually released, supporting spot transactions, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is gradually recovering.
4. Futures side: The average daily trading volume of the main contract for propylene futures in February increased by 12.3% month on month, and the holding volume increased by 8.7% month on month. The preference of funds for the chemical sector has increased, and the price has reflected positive expectations in advance, forming a traction for spot trading.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the range oscillation will continue to be strong, with a core range reference of 6350-6650 yuan/ton. Key focus: crude oil trend, downstream resumption progress, equipment maintenance plan, and basis repair rhythm.
Investment side: Upstream PDH and refining enterprises benefit from price increases, while downstream product enterprises face cost pressures. They can track price transmission through the Business Society Stock Connect and lock in the target beneficiaries.