1、 Market Review

Recently, the PA66 market has shown a fluctuating and weakening trend, continuing the downward trend since late April. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price on May 14th was 22666.67 yuan/ton, which dropped to 21833.33 yuan/ton on May 21st, a decrease of about 7.09% from the beginning of the month. Overall, market prices are in the mid to high range of the year, with a significant decline from the high point of the year. The focus of spot quotations continues to shift slightly downwards, and market trading is generally light.
2、 Cause analysis
On the cost side, adipic acid increased by over 50% in the first quarter, but entered a narrow adjustment range after April, with some periods falling by about 2000 yuan/ton. The overall cost support margin weakened, but the energy premium in the early stage still exists, and the short-term cost center is difficult to move downwards, which still has a certain bottoming effect on the price. At the beginning of the year, the price of hexamethylenediamine rose sharply from 16300 yuan/ton in East China to around 28000 yuan/ton, but the recent upward trend has slowed down significantly. It is worth noting that on May 20th, the 30000 tons/year caprolactam to hexamethylenediamine project under Yongrong Holdings Group was fully put into operation, adding domestic supply of hexamethylenediamine and reducing the cost of PA66 raw materials, which to some extent alleviated the bottleneck of raw material supply.
On the supply side, the domestic production of PA66 remains relatively stable. Enterprises generally maintain low load operation, and some aggregation enterprises still have the intention to raise prices and reduce production due to cost pressures. The overall supply of spot goods is still acceptable, but it is not a loose surplus pattern. The supply of imported goods is relatively tight, and prices are also at a high level.
On the demand side, downstream purchasing intentions remain weak, and the overall transaction atmosphere is flat. Downstream companies generally adopt a strategy of “small orders are just needed, and purchases are made as needed”, with few large orders and cautious follow-up on high priced orders. End customers have a clear resistance to high priced goods, resulting in light trading volume.
3、 Future forecast
Overall, it is expected that the PA66 market will mainly experience high-level fluctuations and narrow range consolidation in the short term. The price center of PA66 may still have a slight downward trend, but the decline is expected to be limited. The market is likely to continue to operate in a weak and stagnant pattern.