This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued its downward trend from last week, with a sluggish market performance. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 1.32%, with a slight narrowing of the decline. The main reason is due to the abundant supply of ammonia, which has led to a growing festive atmosphere and downstream shutdowns and load reductions, resulting in weakened demand. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2150-2350 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, this week’s supply has increased compared to last week. The main production areas in the north have stable output, while the supply of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei regions is stable. In Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions, the supply of equipment has resumed, and the amount of ammonia has increased. Although Shaanxi’s environmental protection has limited production, the surrounding supply is large, and prices in the northwest and Inner Mongolia regions are still showing a downward trend. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, large factories in Shandong Province have gradually adjusted their prices within the week, with the adjustment range generally in the range of 50 yuan. The market shows oversupply, and enterprises still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage. Supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown average performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Urea rose this week mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival and short-term downstream buying behavior, which may be difficult to sustain in the later stage. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase in urea was 1.15%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, mainly due to the impact of the expected resumption of plant work, and there are still supply risks in the market. However, there may be room for improvement in agricultural demand, and there are signs of a rebound in the operating rate of downstream products such as monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate. The game between supply and demand will strengthen in the later stage, and the market for feed ammonia may still maintain a range of fluctuations.