According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will rise from January 1 to January 15, 2026. On January 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5170 yuan/ton, and on January 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5310 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.71%. The core driving force for the market’s upward trend in this cycle is the support of crude oil costs, tightening of the supply side, and favorable linkage of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain. However, in the later stage, due to the wide fluctuations of crude oil, cautious downstream price chasing, and regional supply expectations differentiation, the market’s continued upward momentum is weak, and pressure to maintain stability at a high level is gradually emerging.

Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.08 per barrel, and the settlement price of the March Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.76 per barrel. The international crude oil prices have shown a wide range of fluctuations in this cycle, with a “continuous rise at first and a significant correction at the end of the month”, and there are stage differences in the cost support for the toluene market. In the early stage, international crude oil futures achieved five consecutive increases, with WTI crude oil surging above $60 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising simultaneously, with prices reaching highs in nearly two months, creating a strong atmosphere for the commodity market and directly driving up the prices of toluene and upstream and downstream aromatic hydrocarbon products. Domestic crude oil futures also strengthened synchronously, rising continuously from January 9th to January 13th. The closing price on January 13th reached 445.6 yuan/barrel, up 29.4 yuan/barrel from the low point on January 8th, with significant cost support. But on January 15th, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, and the geopolitical premium quickly dissipated. Affected by factors such as the easing of relations between Venezuela and the United States, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decline in OPEC+production reduction execution rate, WTI crude oil fell 3.31% in a single day, reporting $59.83 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.49% to $64.19 per barrel, marking the largest daily decline since November 2025. The short-term sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost side support for toluene, coupled with increased market expectations for subsequent oil price fluctuations, which has suppressed the upward momentum in the toluene market and weakened the driving force for continued growth.
Supply side:
This cycle, the overall supply of toluene in China is tight, and there is a significant differentiation in various regions due to differences in equipment operation and delivery, which has become the core support for driving up prices. The tight and balanced supply in Shandong region continues, with the strongest driving force for price increase. The restart of Xinyue Chemical Plant has been delayed, and Youtai Technology has stopped for maintenance. Huaxing Petrochemical’s toluene is mainly for self use, while Yulong Petrochemical’s regional circulation has decreased. The supply of goods continues to shrink, and refinery bidding premiums have normalized, with prices actively pushing up, reaching the 5000 yuan/ton mark and active trading. The decline in the arrival volume of ship cargo in the storage area of Jiangsu region has led to a tight spot market, coupled with the favorable price increase of crude oil and aromatic products. Holders of goods are actively pushing up prices, and paper goods trading is frequent. The export arbitrage window has opened up, further strengthening the mentality of reluctance to sell, and prices have risen along with Shandong. The Guangdong region is showing a trend of “tightening first and then loosening”, with delayed arrival of cargo in the early stage driving up inventory and price increases, and the gradual arrival of cargo in the later stage putting pressure on prices. In addition, the main refineries in China have started operating steadily, but there is a surplus of self use.

Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of December 12th, East China Company quoted 5400 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5200 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5250 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PX price of Sinopec Sales Company is uniformly implemented at 9300 yuan/ton in East China, North China, and South China regions. The main units of Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical are operating stably, and production and sales are smooth. As of January 15th, the closing prices of PX markets in Asia were $980-982/ton FOB Korea and $1005-1007/ton CFR China, up 2.17% and 2.33% respectively from January 1st, indicating a significant upward trend in both domestic and foreign prices.
Market forecast: Wide fluctuations in crude oil prices and cautious downstream pursuit of price increases will lead to weak momentum in the toluene market, resulting in an increase in weak sentiment within the market. The pattern of regional differentiation will further expand: the tight supply situation in Shandong region continues, but there is still some support; Jiangsu region benefits from the export arbitrage window, and holders have a strong willingness to raise prices; The Guangdong region is under significant pressure on prices due to the impact of new cargo shipments. It is expected to fluctuate within the range next week, and special attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices, the progress of equipment maintenance in Shandong, and the impact of Guangdong cargo arrival on the market.