According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market rebounded after a decline in August, with an average price of 4891 yuan/ton in the PTA market in East China, an increase of 1.45% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days, OPEC+increased production, crude oil continued to decline, and market prices fell due to expectations of self accumulation. In the second half of the year, the petrochemical industry experienced a rebound and PTA units suffered unplanned losses, leading to a significant increase in market prices. At the end of the month, concerns about weakened supply and demand led to a sharp decline in market prices from high levels.

In terms of PTA supply, some factories have undergone equipment maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate is around 68%, but the market supply is stable and there has been no shortage of goods. In early September, three sets of PTA plants with capacities of 2.25 million tons, 2.2 million tons, and 4.5 million tons will be restarted one after another, and the supply and demand of the industry will shift from destocking to loose balance.
The crude oil market is intertwined with long and short factors, and will continue to face complex situations in the short term. On the supply side, the geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine have escalated due to Trump’s deadline for negotiations, raising concerns about supply disruptions. On the demand side, both US crude oil inventories and Cushing crude oil inventories have decreased, while strategic petroleum reserve inventories have increased, providing support for oil prices. However, the implementation of US tariffs on India’s purchase of Russian crude oil may be hindered. As of August 26th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.25 per barrel, and the settlement price of the October Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.22 per barrel. The future still needs to focus on the progress of the Russia Ukraine situation and the policy guidelines of the OPEC meeting on September 7th.
The operating rate of downstream polyester industry has slightly rebounded, and PTA is mostly purchased at low prices. In previous years, with the gradual issuance of autumn and winter orders and the start of the “Golden September” peak season, demand is expected to gradually increase. However, since the beginning of this year, tariff disputes have persisted, affecting the export of terminal textiles and clothing, and the launch of the “Golden September” has been delayed. Most textile companies are cautious and cautious, focusing on maintaining essential procurement.
Business analysts believe that the supply of PTA maintenance equipment will return in September, and the maintenance is still uncertain. On the demand side, the market expects the traditional peak season in September to inject a stimulant into the market. However, in the absence of clear direction guidance, short-term PTA prices are expected to follow fluctuations in crude oil prices.