According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market experienced a volatile decline in August 2025. From August 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5570 yuan/ton to 5440 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.33% during the period.

In the first half of this cycle, the toluene market experienced narrow fluctuations with relatively small overall volatility. This week, some enterprises in the Shandong market are temporarily not exporting for personal use, and the export enterprises are mainly based on pre-sales. Refinery quotations are generally stable. The East China market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and the market is temporarily stable under the mentality of supply and demand game. Although the supply in the South China region is slightly tight, the weakening of crude oil prices has dragged down market sentiment, and the overall market performance remains stable.
Late month: Due to poor sales at the end of the month in Shandong, the listing prices continued to decrease, but downstream purchasing intentions were generally low and weak. The overall performance of the demand side is still weak, although the upstream actively reduces prices, the downstream’s enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the market is overall declining, with limited negotiations.
Cost wise: As of the 26th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.25 per barrel, and the settlement price of the October Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.22 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices were mainly volatile. On the one hand, OPEC+announced a cumulative increase in production of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization’s exit from its plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule. This news is bearish for the oil market. On the other hand, the tense situation in Europe and the upcoming peace talks have led to a weakening of geopolitical supply risks, negative global macro data, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September, making it difficult for the crude oil market to have positive support.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of August 29th, East China Company quoted 5450 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5300 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5550-5600 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5550 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 29, 2025, the price of xylene by Sinopec Sales Company has temporarily stabilized, with a current execution price of 7200 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton compared to July 30. As of August 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $822-824/ton FOB Korea and $847-849/ton CFR China, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton from July 30th.
Market forecast: The overall performance of the toluene market is weak in the near future, and there is a strong game mentality between supply and demand. With some toluene enterprises resuming operations, the market supply is relatively loose in the near future. The demand side is approaching the traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October”, and downstream stocking demand may increase to some extent. In the short term, the toluene market is expected to have a weak trend due to loose supply in the future. In the long run, demand during peak seasons may drive an upward trend in the market. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil and downstream enterprise production.