Trade name: natural rubber (standard I)

Latest price: 13641 yuan / ton

Market analysis: the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com) shows that the current oil price has stabilized after rising, and the global fuel supply is still tight; Following the policy intervention in coal prices last week, the upward momentum of basic raw materials weakened. Since the 19th, natural rubber has mainly weakened, and the market rebounded slightly on the 26th, with a range of about 100-200 yuan / ton. The market said that there are no very prominent influencing factors at present, and today’s small rebound also has an appropriate correction of continuous decline for many days; From the perspective of natural rubber industry, the long and short factors are obvious. From the perspective of supply, the foreign media reported on the 25th that the epidemic situation in beidanian Prefecture of Thailand was severe and the prevention and control was upgraded; Heavy rainfall has blocked rubber cutting activities in Kerala State in southern India. An Indian industry official said that the country’s natural rubber production may be greatly reduced in October and November. China’s domestic production areas will stop cutting in the middle and late of next month, and the support of natural rubber supply side will be strengthened; In terms of import and export, imported rubber has gradually arrived in Hong Kong. The data show that the amount of imported rubber has increased slightly month on month for four consecutive weeks since late September. Next, imported rubber will arrive in Hong Kong one after another, the volume will increase, and the inventory of natural rubber will increase rapidly. In terms of downstream demand, due to the impact of chips, fuel, epidemic situation and many other factors, the demand for cars and tires is weak, which does not play a strong supporting role in rubber.

Future forecast: in the future, we need to pay attention to the macro impact of global monetary policy, the driving role of crude oil and chemicals, the change of the arrival of imported rubber, the change of chip shortage and tight fuel supply, as well as the impact of environmental protection, power restriction and other policies on output. It is expected to show a weak shock trend in the near future.