1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 60000 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 46666.67 yuan / ton. The price decreased within the week by 22.22%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus was lowered in October. Due to the rapid rise in the price of yellow phosphorus last month, there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the yellow phosphorus Market after the National Day this month. Downstream procurement was more cautious and kept the price down, and it was just necessary to take the goods. Traders wait and see, and prices slowly decline. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000-46000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 45000-50000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 46000-50000 yuan / ton. The overall market trading of yellow phosphorus is relatively light, and the downstream enterprises are not willing to purchase at high prices, so they just need to take the goods.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphate ore market rose in October. Supported by the continuous tight supply in Guizhou and Guangxi, some mining enterprises raised the prices of medium and high-end phosphate ore freight plants. As of the 26th, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plants in Guizhou is around 620-650 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plants is around 550-600 yuan / ton. The supply of phosphate rock mines is still tight, and the supply contract is dominated by old customer orders. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that the probability of significant changes in the domestic phosphorus ore market is small, and the overall operation is dominated in the short term.

In terms of coke, the coke market was stable in October, the coke market price in Shandong Port was temporarily stable, and the inventory in the two ports rebounded slightly. At present, the mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi primary coke in the port is 4250-4300 yuan / ton. The port market mentality is weak, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the overall trading is not active. The quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4270 yuan / ton. The coke market is in strong operation, the expectation of coke enterprises to limit production is stricter, and the future expectation of coke supply is tight. At present, the cost of entering the furnace is high, and the price support mentality of coking enterprises is strong.

In terms of phosphoric acid, in October, the market price of phosphoric acid moved downward, the market gradually cooled down, and the focus moved down rapidly. At present, the production pressure of phosphoric acid manufacturers is reduced, the start-up is improved, the market supply is increased compared with the previous period, the offer of cargo holders is more stable, and some enterprises adjust the quotation in a narrow range according to their own inventory.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus fell this month, the overall market trading was relatively light, and the downstream enterprises did not have a strong willingness to purchase at high prices. They just needed to take the goods, and traders waited and waited, and the actual transaction price showed a slow downward trend. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly weak in the short term, and there is no lack of possibility of decline.