1、 Price trend

As of July 26th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 4420 yuan/ton, and the DMF market is generally in a low-level stalemate and narrow consolidation trend. The mainstream delivery price in East China is between 4500-4600 yuan/ton, Shandong and North China are between 4370-4470 yuan/ton, and South China is between 4600-4700 yuan/ton. Some factories quote about 4300-4420 yuan/ton, which is slower than the previous decline but lacks rebound strength.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the weak game between supply and demand is evident. The supply side has abundant spot goods, with some devices undergoing maintenance and restarting alternately, and major manufacturers have the intention to raise prices; The demand side is in the traditional high temperature off-season, and there is a shortage of orders for PU pulp (accounting for about 60% of consumption) corresponding to industries such as shoes, clothing, and luggage. Downstream implementation of “on-demand procurement” is mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and traders are actively selling and reducing inventory, with a strong wait-and-see attitude.
In terms of raw materials, the fluctuation of methanol raw material is relatively weak due to the expected impact of port accumulation, while the overall stability of liquid ammonia/synthetic ammonia is limited, with limited cost support. Due to the synchronous decline of raw materials, the theoretical profit of the factory remains at around 300 yuan/ton, and the top enterprises still have profits. The willingness to actively reduce production and raise prices is not strong, and it is difficult for the cost side to drive price increases.
Construction situation: The industry’s capacity utilization rate remains at a low level of 40% -45% (recent statistics show about 44.6%). Some facilities in Henan, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have experienced negative, short-term or long-term shutdowns due to profit or inventory pressures, and the supply increment has converged. However, the surplus pattern has not changed, and the overall supply is still relatively loose.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts believe that in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a low level, with insufficient upward momentum. If the raw material methanol continues to weaken and the maintenance equipment restarts, the supply pressure will reappear; Attention should be paid to the implementation of major factory maintenance and changes in listing prices at the end of July. If autumn and winter orders start and demand rebounds after August and September, there may be substantial opportunities for rebound. Currently, the main focus is still on digesting inventory and following up on essential needs.