1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, this week’s pure benzene showed a trend of first falling and then rising. On June 6, the price of pure benzene was 7800-8000 yuan / ton (average price 7910 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (June 13), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7750 yuan / ton (average price 7730 yuan / ton). The average price fell 180 yuan / ton, or 2.28%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 106.13%.

2、 Analysis and comment

At present, some downstream profits of pure benzene are in deficit, and the follow-up of pure benzene is weak. The rapid decline of styrene in the week dragged down the pure benzene mentality, and the price fell with it. This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 7750 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (June 11) was 923 US dollars / ton, down 50.67 US dollars / ton, or 5.2%, compared with June 4; The import reference price of East China was 960 US dollars / ton, down 40 US dollars / ton or 4% from June 4

In terms of crude oil, the market demand outlook is optimistic, and the international oil price rises in shock. Brent rose $1.365/barrel, or 1.93%, on June 4; WTI rose $1.21 per barrel, or 1.74%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene fell this week. On June 11, the price of sample enterprises was 8950 yuan / ton, down 6.77% from last week, and up 60.78% from the same period last year.

Aniline: the price of aniline froze in the early part of this week, and the price fell weakly near the weekend. On June 11, the price in Shandong was 8800-9100 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 2.18% lower than last week; It increased by 13.5% over the beginning of the year and 97.79% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the United States lifted sanctions on some individuals and entities in Iran, and Iran’s crude oil exports are expected to increase or depress oil prices. However, the recovery of demand is expected to be good as a whole, and the international oil price still has action power. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the global epidemic situation, the latest OPEC + decisions, global economic data, US crude oil and refined oil inventory data, etc.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: on the supply side, the unexpected maintenance of three units in China, namely, Anhui Jiaxi 350000 T / A, CNOOC shell phase II 700000 T / A and Hebei shengteng 80000 T / A, has disturbed the supply side. However, in view of the fact that most of the maintenance units have been restarted and new units have been put into production, the supply increment is expected to remain unchanged in June, but with the increase of domestic trade and imports to East China, The wharf will be in a state of continuous accumulation. On the downstream side, the demand of the downstream is weak, and the psychology of waiting to fall is strong. Styrene is expected to weaken in the short term.

Internationally, the recovery of crude oil is promising; The external price falls, the import arbitrage window opens, and the import volume of pure benzene is expected to increase in the later period. In China, the pure benzene units that were overhauled in the early stage have been restarted one after another, and the supply has been rising gradually; However, the short-term supply in the market is still tight. Overall, it is expected that the price of pure benzene will be sorted out next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.