Spot market: raw materials fell after the drop of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong Province was about 14333 yuan / ton, down 600 yuan / ton, down 4.0% compared with the previous high of 14933 yuan / ton. Fujian traders take more goods at low price, and the high-level turnover of the factory is rare, and more orders are delivered in the early stage. Some of the shortage of the yarn factory still have 7-10 days, if the market continues to be sluggish, next week the pressure of the mill will increase, the decline will accelerate.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: yesterday, short fiber futures continued to fall sharply, reaching a drop in the session, pf05 contract closed at 7370 yuan / T, down 404 from the settlement price of the previous day. Some of the factory’s quotations were lowered, and the focus of semi smooth 1.4d was reduced to 7400-7600 yuan / ton. The production and sales of the factory are light, with an average of about 6%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang half light 1.4d mainstream 7050-7600 yuan / ton, Fujian half light 1.4d mainstream 7600-7700 yuan, Shandong, Hebei mainstream 7500-7700 yuan.

Downstream demand: the export orders in March to May are lower than expected, the enthusiasm of textile factories to inquire and pick up yarn has been significantly reduced, and the price reduction momentum is relatively fierce; some yarn factories have been actively starting to reduce their quotation due to the phenomenon of tired warehouse after Spring Festival or the order of medium and short-term lines is insufficient. The whole yarn and grey cloth are in the trend of “mountain rain is coming to wind and full of buildings” with the wide correction of raw polyester staple fiber.

Suggestions: the futures market continues to decline, and the wait-and-see mentality is aggravating. At present, 7000 points in the market are not willing to break. Later, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the impact of raw material price and downstream demand.

In March, Shandong propane market ushered in a rising market. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average market price of propane was 3932.50 yuan / ton on March 4 and 4250.75 yuan / ton on March 8, with an increase of 8.09% during the period, and 5.39% on March 8, with an increase of 6.80% compared with March 1.

As of March 8, the mainstream propane prices in different regions in China are as follows:

Mar. 8, 2007

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4250-4300 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than 95.4000-4120 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95.4000-4250 yuan / ton

In South China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4520-4850 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4400-4650 yuan / ton

After the festival, propane market rose first and then fell, and the overall market trend was weak. Entering March, Shandong propane market ushered in a recovery. On the 4th, it began to rise. On the 8th, the price rose significantly. Shandong propane market rose by 5.58% on a single day, with an increase range of 100-240 yuan / ton. The rally was mainly driven by international crude oil. The results of the OPEC + meeting finally came to fruition, and the organization agreed to extend the oil production reduction to April. Saudi Arabia, OPEC leader, said it would extend the plan of voluntarily reducing production by 1 million barrels per day and decide when to phase out the reduction in the next few months. In addition, Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed to increase production by 130000 B / D and 20000 B / D respectively. The results of the meeting exceeded market expectations and pushed the oil price up to the highest level in more than a year. Propane Market in this favorable situation, the price has been rising. The enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved compared with the previous period, but the current market demand is still weak, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. The trend of domestic propane market is also different between the north and the south. The north market is rising obviously, especially in Shandong market. The south market is mostly stable, but due to the lack of demand, individual market declines.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco announced in March that there was an increase in propane and butane. Propane was $625 / T, up $20 / T from last month; butane was $595 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

In March, CP was introduced. Although the price of propylene butane rose, the rising rate did not meet the expectation, which brought Limited benefits to the market. The rising market is mainly driven by the sharp rise of international crude oil, and the market demand is still weak. Although the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved, the market rise is still limited. Propane market is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3616.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 50 yuan / ton, or 1.40%, up 30.41% over the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market rose this week, with the commodity index of 94.76 on March 5.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3850 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3400 yuan / ton, stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3600 yuan / ton, stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. The quotation of small material is 720 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of medium material is 800 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of large material is 800 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices fell slightly this week. PVC quotation fell by 2.00% from 8750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8575.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 37.47%. This week, PVC prices fell slightly, the market is general, downstream calcium carbide purchasing enthusiasm is normal, overall, this week’s PVC market has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Although the downstream PVC market has dropped slightly recently, the same ratio is high, and the downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall slightly in mid March.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6625.00 yuan / ton, which is stable. The current price is up 0.76% month on month, and the current price is up 3.92% year on year.

Recently, the domestic potash market has been stable with low market inventory. Most of the orders in the early stage of the factory have not been completed, and the orders are mainly shipped in the early stage. The potash market has a general trading atmosphere and stable market. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6400-6700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers was stable: on March 5, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2050 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On March 5, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2260 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. This week potassium chloride market high consolidation, little volatility.

Potash analysts of business news agency believe that the recent potash supply at the port is not sufficient, and the stock in the market is small, showing an upward trend. Under the support of cost, it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

In February, the liquid ammonia market rebounded after falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall decline of liquid ammonia in the whole month was 0.20%.

Before the year, the market was in a downward trend, which was mainly affected by the light atmosphere before the festival, the decline of purchasing intention and the loose supply. With the recovery of natural gas supply in Southwest China before the festival, the supply of liquid ammonia has been eased, the amount of ammonia continues to increase, and the price in Southwest China also continues to decline, with a range of 400-500 yuan / ton. However, some enterprises in Shandong, Henan and other regions are still short of normal supply in the short term, and the prices in this region are relatively resistant. The decrease is only 200-300 yuan / ton.

After the year, the market gradually warmed up, the long-distance transportation recovered rapidly, and the liquid ammonia market ushered in the delivery period. As the inventory of liquid ammonia of most manufacturers has declined, it has also cleared the way for the price rise. After the festival, the demand for urea, phosphate fertilizer and other downstream products has picked up, and the purchase has increased. The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei has also picked up significantly.

In terms of urea, the overall trend of urea in February was good, with a strong increase of 6.47%. The urea market continued to be affected by the higher demand for spring stock. The fertilizer use in spring was expected to rise, and the price continued to rise. After the festival, the market growth slowed down slightly, mainly because of the high price of urea, some liquid ammonia enterprises switched to urea, the supply of urea was loose, and the price stopped rising.

As far as the downstream compound fertilizer is concerned, it generally rose. According to the monitoring of the business society, the growth rate of monoammonium phosphate was 17.25% in February, and that of diammonium phosphate was 16.27% (as shown in the figure above). In February, the downstream demand rose as a whole. In agriculture, driven by the concentration of spring ploughing, the price gradually increased. In addition, with the increase of foreign export demand, the price of ammonium phosphate was high.

In the future, the business community believes that the liquid ammonia market may gradually return to stability in March, and the operation rate of the downstream product industry will gradually double, which has a certain support for the liquid ammonia Market. Some enterprises begin to recover ammonium nitrate plants, and the downstream procurement may be increased later. Moreover, the current urea price is high, and the overall pressure on the supply of liquid ammonia is not big. With the start of the spring ploughing season, the price of liquid ammonia in the later stage may still rise There is room for inflation.

This round of domestic BD rising market can be described as “out of control”. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of March 1, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 31750 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 133.46% and a year-on-year increase of 228%. The quotation of production enterprises continued to rise, and the market follow-up sentiment was high. In a short period of time, the BDO market rose sharply.

The domestic BDO market continues to rise. Some enterprises’ quotation continued to rise, and the transaction price of individual bidding enterprises was high. The main reason for this price rise is still the shortage of goods. “Goods in hand” has become a popular topic for a while. Even if the price is a little higher, the transaction can still be concluded, but the trading volume is generally low. Most of the production enterprises maintain long-term contract customers, basically no external sales. Xinye stopped for a short time due to hydrogen problem, Dongyuan replaced the catalyst on February 20-26, and Panjin Dalian was short of raw materials, resulting in the load dropping to 50-60%. The market supply side was supported by favorable conditions, and the supplier’s intention to support the market remained unchanged. At present, the lower reaches of the general normal start-up, demand goods actively, BDO market eventually broke years of “Silence” situation, “soaring.”.

For the unit, Dongyuan 100000 ton unit was shut down from February 20 to 26 to replace the catalyst. Due to the shortage of raw materials, the load of Panjin Dalian was reduced to 50%; the Yanchang oil plant was unstable, and the load was about 50%; the black cat has been restarted, and the load was about 50%; one set of great wall energy plant was stable, and the other set was still under maintenance; the Xinye plant was shut down due to hydrogen problem on February 14 to February 21.

The current factory strong offer, tight supply situation continues. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market in the short term high volatility.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: after the festival, the domestic cobalt price is rising, and the cobalt market is soaring, but the cobalt price is falling after hitting the 400000 yuan / ton mark. On February 26, the cobalt price was 397166.66 yuan / ton, down 1.41% from 402833.34 yuan / ton on February 25. Is cobalt price rising blocked or ready to rise?

One day nonferrous plate market fell

It can be seen from the one-day rise and fall list of nonferrous plate that in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on February 26, 2021, there are 8 kinds of commodities in nonferrous plate that have increased month on month, and 9 kinds of commodities that have decreased month on month. In addition to rare earth products and magnesium, the main metal products have declined to varying degrees. Cobalt was dragged down by the decline of nonferrous plate, and cobalt price fell slightly. The macro-economic fundamentals are still relatively good, and the support for the rise of cobalt Market in the future remains.

Mobile phone sales are hard to stop

It can be seen from the data released by China Academy of information technology that in January 2021, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 40.12 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 92.8%. The domestic 5g mobile phone shipment was 27.278 million units, accounting for 68.0% of the mobile phone shipment in the same period. In January, the domestic mobile phone shipment rose sharply, second only to that in April at the beginning of the resumption of work, indicating that the mobile phone market recovered significantly; in January, the 5g mobile phone shipment set a record, and the 5g mobile phone shipment accounted for more than 60% for eight consecutive months and more than 68% for three consecutive months, and the 5g mobile phone replacement trend was unstoppable. Stimulated by the recovery of mobile phone market and the tide of replacement, the future mobile phone shipment is expected to rise sharply, the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise, the rising power of cobalt market is increased, and the rising power of cobalt price is sufficient.

Investment and financing of new energy vehicles

It can be seen from the list of new energy vehicle investment and financing events from January to February that as of February 23, 13 investment and financing events have occurred in the field of new energy vehicles in China since 2021, including BYD, Evergrande, Zero run, hechuang, Faraday future and other well-known brands. In recent years, the field of new energy vehicles is very popular with capital, and investment and financing continue to be hot. In 2020, the amount of financing disclosed in the investment and financing events is nearly 129.21 billion yuan, realizing the record of breaking through 100 billion yuan in the field of new energy vehicles for the first time. The hot investment market continues to push up the market expectation of new energy vehicles in the future. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 194000 and 179000 respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles in a single month has set a new record for seven consecutive months. In 2021, the new energy vehicle industry will continue to show a good performance of overall growth. New energy vehicles stimulate the continuous growth of demand in the cobalt market, with sufficient momentum for the future rise of cobalt Market and limited resistance to the rise of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the short-term sharp rise of cobalt price after the festival, despite the strong support of demand, will inevitably produce water. On February 26, when the nonferrous plate generally fell, a small decline of cobalt price will follow the trend. In terms of future trend, in 2021, China’s 5g investment will continue to grow, and 5g network will be more perfect. In 2021, the four major telecom operators will continue to increase 5g network investment, which is expected to be 1.5 to 2 times of that in 2020. At the same time, the price of 5g mobile phone has been greatly reduced, and the above factors will drive 5g consumption blowout. The blowout of 5g mobile phone consumption and the continuous development of new energy vehicles have raised the demand expectation of cobalt market. The demand of cobalt market rises, and the driving force of cobalt price increases. There is a huge space for cobalt price to rise in the future. Cobalt price is expected to rise in the future, and it is still ready to rise after a short decline.

Magnesium market trend

On February 26, 2020, the ex factory price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas rose sharply, and the current mainstream quotation range is 15400-15800 yuan / ton.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 15400-15500 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan, 15600-15700 yuan / ton; in Wenxi, 15600-15800 yuan / ton; in Ningxia, 15400-15600 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

According to the data of business news agency, the market of magnesium ingots recovered slightly after the year, and the mainstream quotation rose. Today, the price of magnesium ingots rose sharply, and the quotation of main production areas was about 15500 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot Market has been improved a few years ago, which is mainly reflected in the pre-sale orders of mainstream manufacturers, and the price also began to stop falling and stabilize in late January.

After the year, with the rising of upstream and downstream operation rate, the demand side fundamentals of magnesium ingots have been effectively improved, and the downstream market has been fully recovered. The demand for magnesium including hoarding has increased, and the downstream procurement has increased sharply. In addition, some manufacturers in the main production areas have stopped production for maintenance, the spot market is short-term tight, the supply and demand side has improved, and the price trend of magnesium ingots is mainly good.

This round of magnesium ingot price explosion is not only the simple logic of supply and demand factors. At present, the soaring prices of bulk commodity market, including aluminum alloy, are also affected by the price of aluminum ingot rising to the highest level in recent nine years. The price of magnesium ingot is more or less affected by the price of industrial chain.

After the Spring Festival, the prices of some bulk commodities went crazy, many “breaking new highs” and “soaring” markets continued to be staged, and many products in the non-ferrous industry rose sharply, including rare earth. The so-called “strong generals have no weak soldiers”. Recently, the market prices of rare earth have repeatedly reached new highs. According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. The price of domestic PR nd rare earth has repeatedly reached new highs. The market price of terbium has risen to a 10-year high, and that of dysprosium has reached an 8-year high. The price of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on February 24 was 516 points, up 18 points from yesterday, and 10 points from the highest point in the cycle 00 (2011-12-06), down 48.40%, up 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth plate index has been soaring, the recent rare earth market has been crazy, and the market price has been rising one after another. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxide, praseodymium and neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide and metal neodymium have reached 8-year highs. The current round of price increase has not stopped since mid December 2020, and the market price continues to rise significantly. As of February 25, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide and neodymium metal in China is 540000 yuan / ton, 665000 yuan / ton, 635000 yuan / ton and 785000 yuan / ton, respectively. The domestic market of light rare earths is on the rise.

The sharp rise of the domestic rare earth industry is mainly driven by two aspects. On the one hand, the domestic environment has been improving recently. A number of non-ferrous products in the market have reached new highs, and copper, aluminum and other products have increased by more than 40%. Taking advantage of the rising market, the prices of rare earth products continue to rise. On the other hand, the downstream demand continues to expand. Recently, the demand for permanent magnets continues to increase. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnets have also taken a “free ride”. According to the insiders, the rare earth gap is likely to continue throughout 2021. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 194000 and 179000 respectively, up 285.8% and 238.5% year on year respectively. Downstream demand is rising, it is said that the demand gap has been increasing, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise. Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market price of terbium series has reached a 10-year high, and that of dysprosium series has reached an 8-year high.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series continues to be red, with dysprosium oxide price of 2.7 million yuan / ton as of the 25th; dysprosium ferroalloy price of 2.6 million yuan / ton, dysprosium metal price of 3.275 million yuan / ton, domestic price of terbium series rises sharply, domestic price of terbium oxide is 9.3 million yuan / ton, metal price of terbium is 11.9 million yuan / ton, terbium series price rises to a new level in 10 years, domestic heavy rare earth market is booming The price has reached new highs.

There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, the supply side of rare earth is tightening, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the import source has decreased significantly, the domestic heavy rare earth market supply and demand contradiction is sharp, resulting in the price of heavy rare earth has increased significantly. Second, the impact of domestic rare earth purchase and storage policy is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and prices of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has risen significantly.

In February 2021, the opinions of the State Council on supporting the revitalization and development of the old revolutionary base areas in the new era proposed to promote the construction of “China’s rare gold Valley” and study the policies for the purchase and storage of medium and heavy rare earth and tungsten resources. The purchase and storage of rare earth and heavy rare earth account for a large proportion, which brings great positive support to the domestic market, and the price of domestic rare earth market rises sharply. In addition, the total control index of the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2021 increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total control index of rare earth mining in 2021. The total control index of the first batch of rare earth mining (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China in 2021 was 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth), The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled. The state policy is favorable, and the market price of rare earth will continue to rise.

In the near future, driven by downstream demand, especially the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry, it is expected to drive further growth of demand. The domestic demand for new energy has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business community analysts expect that the rare earth market will be popular all the way in the future.

On February 24, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly. Before and after the Spring Festival, the liquid ammonia market has been tepid, but this week, the market has risen. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia market has risen by 1.52% this week.

On February 24, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to rise, the regional inventory pressure eased, and some large factories increased by 100 yuan / ton. After the year, the manufacturers maintained production, the ammonia production of large factories decreased, and the ammonia production in the region decreased. The mainstream market price in this area is 3200-3350 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers’ devices are running normally, and the inventory pressure is general. The downstream procurement is slightly increased compared with that before the festival. It is expected that the price will continue to rise in the near future.

Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in Hebei Province has stopped falling and stabilized. Today’s market is on the rise, and the pressure of ammonia supply in the region has eased. The mainstream price in this area is 3150-3250 yuan / ton. Most of the plants are operating normally, and the inventory pressure of large plants has been relieved. This is mainly due to the rapid opening up of transportation in the region and the increase of manufacturers’ shipping capacity. In addition, the downstream urea has obvious support, which is superimposed with the increase of cross regional outsourcing. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound in the near future.

From the perspective of downstream demand, agricultural demand started in succession, the willingness of terminal procurement gradually increased, and the agricultural procurement in mainstream areas was cautious; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer increased, and some downstream products were still cautious, most of them went with the market. The price of liquid ammonia is expected to rise in the near future.