Viscose staple: poor market, imbalance between supply and demand, prices continue to fall

As of July 7, the overall price of viscose staple fiber showed a downward trend. In recent three months, the price of viscose staple fiber decreased by 2280 yuan / ton, or nearly 14.50%. Since March, the trading volume of textile market has turned weak, and most products have no glory in the future. Since the price of viscose staple fiber reached a high level at the beginning of March, there has been no adjustment, allowing the competitive products and downstream wantonly fall. In April, the sales of viscose staple fiber continued to be sluggish in March, and the price gradually declined.

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From the monthly K-bar chart, the price of viscose staple fiber has been on the rise from September 20 to March 21, with a negative drop since April, and the price drop is the most obvious in May, with a drop of 8.85%.

From the perspective of upstream commercial cotton yarn, wood pulp has dropped by 10.66% in the past three months, and the spot price of wood pulp is still in a state of continuous supplement. In June, the performance of the downstream base paper market was weak, there was no obvious fluctuation in the white cardboard and coated paper markets, and the downstream purchasing continued the rigid demand strategy. At the beginning of the month, the price of pulp futures fluctuated weakly, which also made the spot price of wood pulp adjust with the fluctuation of futures price. Then, near the middle of June, the pulp futures price made another effort after several days of silence, and now it is in the downward finishing state, which also leads to the downward trend of the spot price of wood pulp. In the second quarter, the downstream paper products entered the off-season of consumption, the price rise of external quotation slowed down and the pressure of national policy increased, all of which made the price of wood pulp under pressure.

Business analysts believe that the output of viscose staple fiber is expected to remain low in July, but since mid July, the strength of rotation inspection of viscose staple fiber market may gradually slow down, and the overall supply of the industry will still show an upward trend. Since 2021 / 4 / 4, the 7-day moving average has been Undercrossing the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend, but the current two moving average have a trend of opposite. According to 2021 / 7 / 4 calculation, the probability of change of operation situation in the next 7 days (that is, the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average) is 50.39%( Note: if the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average upward, the index will enter the upward channel; If the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average downward, the index will enter the downward channel.)

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