1、 Price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, 2.78% higher than that of the same period last month and 6.93% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the market of cyclohexanone was stabilized and sorted out. The main price in Shandong was 7300-7450 yuan / ton (ex factory in cash). The external price of some factories was increased, and the low price was reduced. During the week, pure benzene was running at a high level, and cyclohexanone was still mostly at a loss. It was sold at a low price. The downstream chemical fiber partial oxidation process was purchased, and the solvent just needed to be purchased. The total demand was general, the market delivery speed slowed down, and cyclohexanone was in abundant spot supply, and the market was consolidated. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong market is delivered in 7400-7500 yuan / ton spot exchange, the mainstream quotation in East China market is delivered in 7700-7900 yuan / ton spot exchange, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market is delivered in 7900-8000 yuan / ton spot exchange.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene fell slightly. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiation in East China is 5780-5850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 5600-5800 yuan / ton. This week involves cross year and new year’s Day holidays, the market trading activity is relatively weak. At present, the listing price of the main business in January is high, and the price difference between the settlement price in December is wide. However, the downstream products suffer losses, and the pure benzene price is under pressure. It is expected that the main business price will be lowered. In addition, due to the expected increase of subsequent arrival ships and the expected market entry of new large-scale chemical qualified products, the industry expects the supply of pure benzene to increase in the future, and the price has a downward expectation. Therefore, the overall market atmosphere in the week is light, and the focus is slightly weak.

Caprolactam: this week, the caprolactam market continued to be strong. Sinopec’s listing price of caprolactam in January 2020 is announced at 11500 yuan / ton (liquid superior products will be accepted and delivered in six months), which will give a certain boost to the market. The slice inventory of the downstream polymerization plant decreased, and the recent raw material stock was centralized. In addition, the North plant was affected by the haze and the multi load was not high. The supply of caprolactam in the field was tight, which supported the seller’s quotation to rise. In terms of price, the spot price in East China market was 11000-11100 yuan / ton, which was delivered by acceptance, up 100 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, up 0.91%.

Adipic acid: the adipic acid market is waiting for the end of invoicing before the new year’s day and the beginning of the month after the new year’s day. The overall activity is not high, and the market is light and volatile. Specifically, the billing policy is the focus of the week. In December, the listing of pure benzene main business increased 650 yuan / ton, the average price increased 209 yuan / ton, and the actual price of adipic acid increased 100-200 yuan / ton reasonably. Waiting before New Year’s Day is the main thing. A small number of Liaohua spot and new moon offers are all above 8 words. On the middle of the week and new year’s day, it is also the first working day after the festival. Although the pure benzene spot is weak, but the high starting point and adipic acid factory’s attitude towards the market still pressure the middlemen. The new single offer is relatively high-level consolidation. The downstream is flat and some small households gradually have shutdown plans. The demand and enthusiasm for replenishment of raw materials are not high. Further attention should be paid to the attitude of raw materials and main manufacturers. At present, the spot market is waiting for exploration. The new single offer is more than 8000-8250 yuan / ton for acceptance. The supply of Taihua goods needs to be restored. The activity of counter-offer negotiation is not high. The weekly average price of East China market is 8007 yuan / ton, up 1.55% on month basis and 2.19% on year basis.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the demand for chemical fiber is low, the solvent is purchased on demand, the delivery speed of cyclohexanone slows down and the start-up has not declined significantly, the market is abundant in spot supply, near the Spring Festival, the solvent may be in stock in January, some cyclohexanone oxide process caprolactam plants also have the possibility of further outsourcing, the total demand may slightly improve, but it will not significantly promote the market price. Under the pressure of cost, the cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will not rise or fall in January.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 market fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average ex factory price of domestic first-class chlorinated paraffin 52 products was 5100 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price at the end of the week was 5033 yuan / ton, down 1.31%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the overall transaction atmosphere of the current market is general, and the demand is weak. The price of wax in upstream raw material liquid remained stable, and the market price of liquid chlorine was slightly reduced.

3、 Future forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business association, from the perspective of demand, the domestic market has limited demand for chlorinated paraffin; it is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the later period.

1、 Price trend

At the beginning of this week, EPS price was 9075 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, EPS price was 9087 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 0.14%. The market was more volatile, and the transaction turned better. Traders and downstream factories have increased their enthusiasm for receiving goods, mainly focusing on market transactions.

2、 Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price rises, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material price is 9000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 9050 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9100 yuan / ton for common materials.

3、 Future forecast

The enthusiasm of EPS downstream plants to receive goods has improved, and the market price has been supported. It is expected that the EPS market will be mainly in shock consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market this week showed a downward trend. The average price of ethylene at the weekend was $762.25/ton, down 0.29% from $764.50/ton at the beginning of the week, and the current price was 13.97% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene overall fell this week. Asian ethylene market prices fell, as of the end of the week, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $747-755 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $667-675 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell slightly. As of the end of the week, the European ethylene market price of FD northwest Europe closed at US $853-866 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $765-774 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region remained stable. By the end of the week, the price was US $346-359 / ton. Overall, during Christmas, the European and American ethylene market was closed, and the whole ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on December 26, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 61.68 US dollars / barrel, up 0.57 US dollars or 0.9% over the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 67.92 US dollars / barrel, up 0.72 US dollars or 1.1% over the previous trading day. According to the news, OPEC has extended the production reduction agreement to 1.6 million barrels / day. In the later stage, the business community believes that in 2020, oil prices still need to pay attention to two aspects: on the one hand, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction; on the other hand, the actual decline in crude oil demand brought about by the global economic slowdown. However, in the early stage, the oil price fell by a relatively high margin, which did not play a supporting role in ethylene, and the external market of ethylene fell. The price of downstream styrene fluctuated and consolidated, and the price of ethanol remained stable, which could not play a supporting role in the price of ethylene, and there was a possibility of falling.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analysts of business and chemical branch, affected by the news that China and the United States will soon sign the first phase of economic and trade agreement, major stock markets in the world will rise, and the atmosphere of oil futures market will be boosted. Therefore, data analysts of business and chemical branch expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of rising.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average spot price of domestic gold on the 31st was 342.54 yuan / g, up 3.58% compared with 330.70 yuan / G on the 1st day, and up 20.57% compared with 284.10 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On the 31st, the spot price of domestic silver was 4376.33 yuan / kg, up 7.07% compared with 4087.33 yuan / kg on the 1st, and up 20.97% compared with 3617.67 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Main factors influencing the rise of precious metals on 31st

1. Geopolitical factors: on the night of December 29 local time, the U.S. military launched air strikes against a militia organization, people’s mobilization organization, active in Iraq and Syria. Rising tensions in the Middle East have triggered market risk aversion.

2. In an environment where more than 70% of national sovereign bonds trade at negative real interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased significantly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 30, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6575.00 yuan / ton. This week, pet market fluctuated in a narrow range.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: the cost pressure increases, the loss situation persists, the manufacturer keeps the price actively, the delivery speed is slow, and the downstream demand is poor. The latest quotation of Zhejiang wankai is 6750 yuan / ton, that of China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. is 6700 yuan / ton, and that of Anyang polyester material factory is 6700 yuan / ton.

On December 29, the pet commodity index was 49.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.35% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.56% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: in the short term, the focus of negotiation is low, and the main thing is to watch carefully.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the quotation of o-xylene Sinopec contract was stable and o-xylene market was stable in December. As of December 27, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of 6200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price is 12.68% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis

In December, the price of benzene was slightly fluctuating and rising. On December 20, the price of benzene in China was 785 US dollars / ton, 32 US dollars / ton higher than 753 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of benzene in South Korea and Southeast Asia was 10 US dollars / ton higher. In December, the external price of ortho benzene rose, the import price of ortho benzene rose, the port price of ortho benzene rose, the port inventory is still at a low level, and the future market of ortho benzene has a certain positive momentum.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

In December, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, and the overall price fell 6.01% in December. The price of raw materials mixed with xylene fell in December, the cost of o-benzene fell, and the market of mixed xylene p-o-benzene was negative.

In December, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell. The market fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride was negative. In terms of plasticizers, the price of DOP rose slightly in December, but the overall start-up of plasticizers was limited and the demand was general. In December, the market of phthalic anhydride, plasticizer and other downstream products fell in shock, which was negative for ortho benzene market, while the downward pressure on ortho benzene market increased and the upward momentum weakened.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, in December, the price of o-xylene raw materials mixed with xylene fell in shock, the cost of o-benzene fell, and the market of o-benzene was negative; in terms of demand, the market of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, the market of o-benzene was negative, the market of plasticizer was general, the downstream demand of o-benzene fell in general, and the market of o-benzene was negative; in terms of external market, the price of o-benzene in external market slightly shocked Swing up, low port inventory, good for domestic market of neighboring benzene. To sum up, in December, the market of o-xylene was more bearish and less favorable, while the future market of o-xylene was under more downward pressure.

The future market should focus on: the price trend of downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer. Attention can be paid to: o-benzene cost and o-benzene outer disk.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 25, the market price of BPA was 10016.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic BPA market was slowly rising.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: domestic bisphenol A devices are in normal operation and supply, bisphenol a market in East China is in firm trading and investment, traders have strong intention of price fixing, low price is relatively hard to find, the mainstream range is around 10000-10050 yuan / ton, downstream factories are mostly passive follow-up, inquiry atmosphere is light, transaction is general, 10100 yuan / ton in North China market, 10100 yuan / ton in East China market, 10500 yuan / ton in South China market.

Industry chain: upstream phenol and acetone price narrow range finishing, general cost support.

On December 24, the chemical industry index was 739, up 2 points from yesterday, down 27.26% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.17% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Bisphenol A analysts of business association think that the market of bisphenol A will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the statistics of the business agency, the price of domestic potassium sulphate fell sharply in 2019. The price of 50% particles in Mannheim, Hebei Province, was 3000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 2800 yuan / ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 8.2%. It can be seen from the price trend in the figure above that the maximum price of 50% particles in Mannheim appeared at the beginning of August, with a maximum price of 3100 yuan / ton. After that, it has been in a step-by-step decline. By the end of the year, the quotation was 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was lower. Because the sales were not ideal, the later quotation was unintentional, and the transaction preferences were a single negotiation.

2、 Market analysis

Judging from the price trend, the potassium sulfate Market in 2019 can be divided into three stages as a whole.

The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May. The domestic potassium sulphate market is not hot and the price of 50% particles in Mannheim fluctuates up and down at 3000 yuan / ton. Although the demand for spring ploughing has been gradually promoted since April, the positive news is limited, and the impact of inventory pressure and upstream potassium chloride has been in a downward trend, which has not supported the price to continue to rise.

Since the export tariff of chemical fertilizer was completely liberalized in 2019, potash fertilizer has cancelled the policy of pricing by volume, which is more affected by the positive effects. The export volume of potassium sulphate has unexpectedly run up, and the growth rate has been far ahead. Although the overall export volume is not large, but for the whole potassium sulfate Market, it has played a role in boosting market confidence.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the market demand for upstream potassium chloride in the off-season is not strong, the port has a lot of inventory and pressure, and the price falls near the cost line. There is no news about the big contract negotiation at the end of May. At the end of May, the main quotations of 62% white potassium and 60% Dahong granules at the port were around 2350 yuan, 200 yuan / ton lower than the price around 2550 yuan at the beginning of the year.

The second stage is from June to mid August, which is the golden time of potassium sulphate. The maximum price of 50% particles of Mannheim is 3100 yuan / ton. At the end of May, the maintenance plan and the bidding for agricultural potassium sulphate of tobacco system presented by luok brought a wave of good news to the trend of potassium sulphate. After the end of June, potassium sulphate stands out in the situation of sluggish national fertilizer market, and the trend is optimistic all the way.

From the perspective of market supply, at that time, the operating rate of potassium sulphate industry was running at a low level, while the operating rate of potassium sulphate in water salt system was not high, and the production of luok could not be resumed until the beginning of September. Therefore, first, the output has declined, second, some manufacturers have good water supply, fertilizer dissolution and export sales in the early stage, and the storage pressure of potassium sulphate manufacturers is not large, combined with the cost advantage, all of which form a certain support for the price.

The third stage is from late August to the end of December. From the figure above, we can see that the trend of potassium sulfate is step by step, directly falling below the lowest price last year. In the second half of this year, the overall trend of fertilizer market is relatively poor, especially the leading variety urea, which has declined sharply, seriously affecting the market sentiment. However, potassium sulfate is mainly used as the raw material of compound fertilizer production, which is greatly affected by the start-up status of compound fertilizer enterprises. Due to the low demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fell to about 35%, and the demand for potassium sulfate weakened. The second half of the year is the peak season of tobacco fertilizer bidding, but this year’s tobacco fertilizer bidding did not have a great pulling effect on the potassium sulfate Market, mainly because the bidding volume was basically stable, and the bid price did not exceed the market expectations.

In the face of all kinds of declining trends, several domestic tobacco bidding, the production of potassium sulfate in Taiwan reduced, the domestic potassium sulfate export to Southeast Asia and other places increased significantly, but also failed to maintain the golden time position of potassium sulfate, and the domestic potassium sulfate market gradually integrated into the vortex of historical trend. Therefore, the demand for potassium sulphate in the second half of the year is small and the stock is large, and the overall price will accelerate downward under the guidance of low price.

Import and export statistics

Export quantity and growth trend of potassium sulphate from January to October 2015-2019 (unit: ton)

After the elimination of export tariff, the export of chemical fertilizer in 2019 has experienced different degrees of growth, in which the growth of potassium sulfate export has skyrocketed. According to the data of China Customs, the export volume of China’s potassium sulphate from January to October 2019 was 293369 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3851.4%; the export volume of China’s potassium sulphate from January to October 2019 was 14993000 US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3679.3%.

Import quantity and growth trend of China’s potassium sulfate from January to October 2015-2019 (unit: 10000 tons)

According to the data of China’s customs, from January to October 2019, the import volume of potassium sulfate in China was 50000 tons, down 9.2% year on year; from January to October 2019, the import volume of potassium sulfate in China was 19423000 US dollars, down 9% year on year.

Forecast for future market

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of the business association, the price of domestic potassium chloride in the upstream is beginning to stabilize in the near future. Whether it improves depends on the next year’s major contract. However, international potassium chloride is still slowly declining, and there is no opportunity for improvement in the short term. Next year, there are plans to reduce the production of potassium sulfate in the water salt system. In the second half of the year, the market of by-product sulfuric acid has been growing steadily. Now, the market is the best period in recent years. Most of the manufacturers have changed from the pre paid money to the money they can sell. However, once the price of sulfuric acid has declined significantly, the cost advantage brought by the decline of potassium chloride will be offset for potassium sulfate. In 2020, potassium sulphate will also face the pressure of inventory and the pressure of profit. It is impossible to get better in the short term. Whether there is an opportunity for improvement in the later period depends on whether the overall environment and demand increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6662.50 yuan / ton on December 23, which made pet market weak this week.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: the cost pressure increases and there is a loss situation. At present, the operating rate is lower than that of last week, but some manufacturers still have inventory pressure and poor downstream demand. The latest quotation of Zhejiang wankai is 6800 yuan / ton, that of China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. is 6900 yuan / ton, and that of Anyang polyester material factory is 6800 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials: PTA processing fee has been raised, and the cost end is not supported well at present. Pet demand is weak in the short term, and the bottle chip market may be in a dilemma under the deadlock of high inventory and loss.

Industry: on December 22, pet commodity index was 50.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.73% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 4.92% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: downstream demand is weak, inventory pressure of some manufacturers is obvious, and there is room for price decline.