1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, this week (5.18-22), the domestic adipic acid market changed little compared with last week. This week did not continue the rebound trend of last week, and the price returned to stability. The data monitored by the business club showed that the rise and fall of adipic acid in East China was 0, the market demand was still weak, and the supply was relatively abundant. The quotations of some dealers kept within 100 yuan. Most manufacturers It is still bearish and light inventory operation is the main thing. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the quotation range of adipic acid market is generally 6600-6800 yuan / ton at present.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of market supply, this week’s operating rate of enterprises is relatively high. At present, more than 80% of them are in sufficient supply. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is still high, and the delivery strength is insufficient. At present, although most dealers have returned to normal delivery, the downstream demand has not yet reached the pre epidemic level. Dealers are cautious in taking delivery. Some dealers purchase according to orders and operate in light of inventory. On the whole, the current market has shown a trend of both high enterprise inventory and market inventory. In terms of cost, from the beginning of May to now, pure benzene has rebounded sharply, boosted by peripheral cost factors such as crude oil recovery, and the monitoring of the business community shows that the increase of pure benzene is nearly 15%, but it has not brought fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the delay of cost transmission, on the other hand, the sharp decline of pure benzene in the early stage, and the decline of adipic acid has not fully kept up with the decline of pure benzene At present, adipic acid still has some profit space without rebound, so adipic acid is also more resistant to falling than the upstream pure benzene. The price of adipic acid is mainly affected by the low demand at present.

From the perspective of terminal demand, downstream demand is relatively weak, and it is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and the overall consumption level of plastic products has not been significantly improved, which is difficult to boost the upstream raw material market. In particular, the operating rate of downstream real estate is generally lower than the same period last year, and the sales volume of polyurethane and other insulation materials is also lower than the same period last year. In addition, downstream products such as PA66 have not come out of the dilemma, and the price is still at a low level. As a result, the demand for adipic acid is difficult to fundamentally improve, the inventory is difficult to digest, the manufacturers press more inventory, and dealers generally follow the market and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, the external demand has also worsened, especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the pressure on adipic acid export has continued to increase, which does not rule out the possibility that the inventory will continue to rise in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

In the later stage, the business association predicted that the upstream chemical products have recovered due to the impact of crude oil rebound, but the intermediate products such as adipic acid did not enjoy the dividend at the cost end, but increased the burden of enterprises due to the increase of upstream cost. This further reflects the dilemma of current demand, especially the fact that the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, foreign orders have declined sharply, and adipic acid exports have been hit. At present, adipic acid is in a dilemma both at home and abroad. In a comprehensive consideration, adipic acid will still shake and adjust at the bottom in the near future.