1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 6233.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6216.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.27%. A year-on-year decrease of 13.26%. On December 11, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 31.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 4.78% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell this week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7710.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7434.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.58%. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol was adjusted at a low level, with the price of 8966.67 yuan/ton. The market of neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand was general, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid and late December may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market stopped falling to maintain stability, and cost support increased. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream was adjusted at a low level, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream was general. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners was weak and volatile this week. On December 11, the average price of Shandong market was 3459.00 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from 3464.00 yuan/ton on December 5.

On December 11, the petroleum coke commodity index was 269.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.17% from the highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11) in the cycle, and up 302.20% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries rose and fell with each other. The local refining enterprises shipped well. At present, the logistics in many places across the country has been restored, and the petroleum coke market is in sufficient supply. Downstream companies have begun to stock up on demand.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level within the year. Because some economic data in the United States exceeded expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The price of metal silicon market declines; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price fluctuated and fell. As of December 11, the price was 19270.00 yuan/ton; At present, downstream carbon enterprises are under great financial pressure, mainly purchasing on demand.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the international crude oil has dropped sharply this week, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; At present, the logistics in many places across the country has been restored, and the downstream enterprises are highly motivated to stock up. However, the petroleum coke market is currently in sufficient supply, and the downstream has an obvious intention to depress the price. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly adjusted in the near future.

This week (12.5-12.9), the overall domestic dimethyl ether market declined slightly, and the price in Henan was temporarily stable. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4620 yuan/ton on December 5, and 4620 yuan/ton on December 9. There was no rise or fall in the week, up 17.33% compared with the same period last year.

As of December 9, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Regional/mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region./4570 yuan/ton

Hebei region./4500 yuan/ton

Henan Province./4250-4620 yuan/ton

This week, the overall transaction focus of the domestic dimethyl ether market moved downward. Although the market inventory position, the downstream demand followed slowly. At the same time, the crude oil price fell several times to a new low in the year, which depressed the mentality of the industry. Upstream shipment was the first, and the focus of individual enterprises’ negotiations was lowered. The market in Henan is relatively strong, the offer of enterprises is stable, and the actual transaction price is loose.

The main reason for the weak market of raw material methanol is supply and demand. The operating rate of the production enterprises has increased, while the source of imported goods continues to arrive at the port, and the supply is abundant. However, the existing demand has not been significantly boosted. Liquefied gas, a related product, rebounded after falling, but the crude oil continued to fall in the future market, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. The market stopped rising and stabilized, increasing resistance to continue rising.

In general, the dimethyl ether market is weak as a whole. Although the supply side remains stable, the cost side and demand side drag significantly. It is expected that the methyl ether market will remain weak next Tuesday.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on November 29 was 109.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.40% from the peak of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 29.58%% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: The monitoring data of the business community showed that the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in the second half of November (16-29) remained stable after a slight increase, and the main report was 2021.25 yuan/ton in the second half of November. With the rapid cooling of the weather and the violent impact of recent public health events in many places, the demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products has decreased sharply. The business of water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan is more difficult than in previous years, with limited transportation and weak demand; The market of raw material hydrochloric acid rose, but due to the sufficient inventory of manufacturers, the recent price change of raw materials had little impact on it. In the short term, the polyaluminum chloride market is mainly stable, supplemented by small fluctuations.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market in the second half of November (16-29) rose from 163.33 yuan/ton to about 198 yuan/ton. From the perspective of manufacturers, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and downstream demand increased. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support; Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream manufacturers became more active in purchasing hydrochloric acid. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may increase slightly.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the price of domestic LNG fell by 6.93% in the second half of November (16-29): the market price of LNG was about 4414 yuan/ton on November 21, and the average market price was 4108 yuan/ton on November 25. Recently, due to the weakening of cost support, on-site supply exceeds demand, terminal demand release is limited, and the LNG market continues to decline. The new raw gas auction is about to start, and the industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the LNG market will consolidate and operate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in cost side and downstream demand.

Future forecast: The recent public health events in many places across the country have had a strong impact, sealed and controlled management, the economy is expected to decline, the demand is not as good as in previous years, and the water treatment market in 2022 is not as good as the same period last year. The light snow has passed, the weather is cold, the demand for downstream construction continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the cost of raw materials has risen, but the purchasing enthusiasm is not high in the near future. As the raw material market continues to rise, the manufacturer’s raw material inventory is exhausted, and the purchase cost rises, the future market will rise with it. It is expected that the polyaluminum chloride market will continue to fluctuate steadily, moderately and slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene continued its downward trend this week, with a wider decline. The price was 7230 yuan/ton on November 25 and 6640 yuan/ton on Friday (December 2), down 8.16% from last week; 10.12% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the weak trend of crude oil, combined with poor domestic demand for toluene, the market discussion was light, and the industry was bearish about the future market, and the price continued to decline last week.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 777 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars/ton year on year, or 7.94%.

In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remain, and oil demand is under pressure. However, the OPEC+production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. On November 25, it was 17500 yuan/ton, and on December 2, it was 17233 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from last week and up 19.88% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, domestic PX prices fell this week. On November 25, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, and on December 2, the price was 8300 yuan/ton, down 3.49% from last week and up 23.88% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, this week’s gasoline continued its downward trend. The price was 8082 yuan/ton on November 25 and 7836 yuan/ton on December 2, down 3.04% from last week and 0.64% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The market fundamentals are poor, and the short-term trend of crude oil is weak. It is expected that toluene will be dominated by weak operation. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline rose slightly this week, according to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives. On November 25, the price was 10350 yuan/ton, and on December 2, the price was 10438 yuan/ton, 0.85% higher than last week and 13.04% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: the fundamentals of pure benzene are not good, and the supply side continues to increase due to the accumulation of stocks in ports in East China; Downstream market is generally weak, and just need to buy. The trend of superimposed crude oil is weak, and the cost support is poor. The price of pure benzene fell due to multiple negative pressures. After the fall of pure benzene, the downstream buying recovered, and prices rebounded slightly in the coming weekend. On Friday (December 2), the price of pure benzene was 6559 yuan/ton, 3.32% lower than last week and 3.95% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of domestic nitric acid rose this week. The price was 2400 yuan/ton on November 25 and 2433 yuan/ton on December 2. The price rose 1.39% last week, 3.55% higher than the same period last year.

The operating rate of some plants in North China decreased slightly. In addition, under the influence of public health events, logistics and transportation were limited, and the supply of aniline in the market decreased. The price of aniline is at a low level, and the purchase enthusiasm of the downstream is fair, and the factory shipment is normal within the week. Fundamentals recovered and prices rebounded slightly.

3、 Future market expectation

General cost support; The downstream is in the low demand season, and the overall follow-up is limited. At present, the supply and demand of aniline market is temporarily stable, the short-term trend is relatively stable, and the rising trend is limited. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline device and the downstream picking mood.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 2, 2022, the market price reference of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 7833 yuan/ton, and on November 27 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, or 0.84%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (11.28-12.02), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole showed a weak decline. The overall shipment of propylene glycol factory is slow, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the supply and demand transmission is generally in a stalemate. Some propylene glycol factories store the pressure of shipment, and slightly reduce the price of propylene glycol by 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the atmosphere of propylene glycol trading in the market is general, and new orders are mostly negotiated. As of December 2, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 7700-8000 yuan/ton.

1、 Supply: Most of the new propylene glycol orders this week were just due to the need to be cautious, and were mainly negotiated. Therefore, some propylene glycol plants were under pressure in inventory. In addition, in the fourth quarter, some devices were put into production, and the overall on-site supply was also at a high level. The mentality of the operators was general, and the supply side gave propylene glycol a loose support.

2、 In terms of demand, at present, the UPR market of propylene glycol downstream is in a general situation, the consumption of raw materials is relatively slow, the mentality of the industry is general, and the stock is cautious. Therefore, the support given to propylene glycol in terms of demand is also insufficient.

Future trend analysis

At present, the propylene glycol market is weak as a whole, and the short-term pre added capacity has injected a strong wait-and-see mood into the market. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the change of information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on November 1 was 12500 yuan/ton, and on November 30, the average factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 12200 yuan/ton, down 2.10% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic caprolactam market trend is mainly downward. The price of raw material pure benzene fell, the cost support weakened, and the pure benzene market had a strong negative atmosphere. Most caprolactam manufacturers operate under reduced load, and the on-site supply is stable. Downstream demand is sluggish, and deals are light. The caprolactam market is weak under the negative factors. As of November 30, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12800 yuan/ton.

This month, the raw material pure benzene market was hit by various negative effects, and the price fell due to shocks. Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene fell by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton this month.

The domestic market of downstream PA6 fell this month. The load of domestic polymerization plants has decreased by a narrow margin, and the supply is still sufficient. On the demand side, the demand is relatively weak, and the rigid demand support is weakened. The contradiction between supply and demand has a certain drag on the market. Generally speaking, the market fundamentals are weak, and the market may continue to be weak.

3、 Future market forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw materials has fallen recently and the cost support of caprolactam is insufficient. On site supply is stable and downstream demand is weak. Led by negative factors, caprolactam market is expected to continue its weak operation in the short term.

In November, the domestic asphalt market declined significantly, mainly due to the demand side. The weather gradually turned cold, limited commencement in some areas, and weak demand for asphalt. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 4400 yuan/ton, and the domestic asphalt market price at the end of the month was 3655 yuan/ton. The price fell by 16.94% in the month, up 14.68% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the spot market price of asphalt fell, and the price in South China fell significantly. The price reduction and batch discount of major refineries drove the market price down. At the same time, the demand is weak, transportation is limited in some regions, and the spot asphalt market has declined significantly.

In the first ten days of this month, the spot market price of asphalt continued to decline, mainly because of the end of demand, the refinery reduced the price for shipment, and the downstream factories mainly purchased on demand. The actual delivery atmosphere was not good.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic asphalt market price continued to fall. In some regions, Sinopec lowered the price and had preferential policies for batch production. The price competition among brands intensified, and the market price fell significantly. The downstream terminal is dominated by just demand, coupled with rapid price decline, poor purchasing enthusiasm and weak overall trading and investment atmosphere.

At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation continued to decline, and the overall bearish atmosphere was heavy. The downstream is just about to end, traders are not enthusiastic about warehousing, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

At present, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak. Business agency asphalt analysts expect that the domestic asphalt market may continue to fall in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the copper price rose and fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 64376.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 64906.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.82%, down 9.39% year on year. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve is expected to slow down the pace of interest rate increase. The weakening of the dollar index and tight fundamentals resonate with strong copper prices. However, many weak economic data suggest that economic growth is slowing down, and copper prices have been under pressure since mid month.

According to the current chart of business futures, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price in November, and the main contract was the expected price two months later. Near the end of the month, the main basis difference becomes larger, which is bad for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory rose after falling in November, just opposite to the copper price in November and lower than the overall inventory in October.

Macro: In November, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that most Fed officials supported slowing down the pace of interest rate increase. The quarterly adjusted annual CPI rate of the United States recorded 7.7% at the end of October, and fell back to below 8% again seven months later, the smallest increase since January 2022; The quarterly core CPI annual rate recorded 6.3%, lower than the expected 6.50%. The final annual rate of CPI in the euro area in October recorded 10.6%, a record high. Data released by the People’s Bank of China on October 10 showed that the increase in social financing scale in October 2022 was 907.9 billion yuan, 709.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

In terms of supply: the domestic refined copper output has maintained a steady growth. In October, the refined copper output increased by 10.90% year on year. From the partial overhaul of domestic smelters in November, the output growth has slowed down. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations and reduced overseas supply, the marginal decline of domestic copper related imports.

Demand: The overall demand is weak, and the growth rate of investment in power infrastructure has dropped significantly. From January to October, the investment in power grid has increased by 3% year-on-year, 6.1 percentage points lower than that from January to September. In terms of real estate, real estate investment from January to October decreased by 8.80% year on year, 0.8 percentage points lower than that from January to September. In terms of household appliances, from January to October, the cumulative year-on-year changes in the output of domestic major household appliances appeared differentiation, and the monthly data of air conditioners, refrigerators and freezers declined in an all-round way, but the washing machines grew on a month on month basis. In terms of automobiles, the growth rate in October declined significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of passenger cars dropped significantly to 7.40%, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 2.70%.

To sum up, China will cut its reserve ratio by 0.25% to release liquidity and support copper prices with policies of multiple real estate initiatives. However, higher profits of smelters will increase production capacity. There is still expectation for incremental release before the end of the year. In addition, the severe and complex domestic epidemic situation is worrying, making supply and demand weak. The trend of copper prices will not be optimistic. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and weaken in December.