According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the price of isooctanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.47% compared to the price of 8200 yuan/ton on December 16. This week, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level. The supply of isooctanol was sufficient, but the demand was average, resulting in oversupply and fluctuating prices of isooctanol.

Adequate supply of isooctanol this week

This week, isooctanol enterprises started production at a high level and remained stable. In addition, new production capacity of isooctanol was gradually put into operation in December, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol supply in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol and causes its price to fluctuate and fall.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the DOP price was 8326.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 8576.25 yuan/ton on December 16. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production is high. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is high, and plasticizers have certain positive support for the demand for isooctanol. However, downstream inventory replenishment at low prices has limited support for the demand for isooctanol.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, this week’s high equipment start-up of isooctanol enterprises, coupled with the production of new capacity, has led to an oversupply of isooctanol and increased downward pressure on isooctanol; This week, downstream plasticizer manufacturers have seen an increase in production, but many of them are restocking at low prices, resulting in average demand for isooctanol and limited support for its upward trend. In the future, there will be an oversupply of isooctanol with average demand, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will weakly decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6660 yuan/ton, which is 0.30% lower than the reference average price of 6680 yuan/ton on December 13th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7000 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 0.24% compared to the reference average of 6983 yuan/ton on December 13th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid has slightly decreased, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid has slightly increased. As of December 20th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6400-6600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6650-7150 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has weakened and fallen. Downstream procurement is cautious, with a decrease in new orders in the market, and business owners mainly issuing preliminary orders. This week, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined and the market supply has decreased. It is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will stabilize in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, maintaining a high and steady operation. At present, the market supply is still tight, downstream demand is stable, and market trading is good. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand balance in the phosphoric acid market has not experienced significant fluctuations. Downstream on-demand procurement, market trading atmosphere is light. At present, the market supply is stable, and there is no significant change in the supply and demand side.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that there has been a slight adjustment in the phosphate market recently. The raw material yellow phosphorus market has weakened, cost support has weakened, and the price of thermal phosphoric acid has been lowered. Due to downstream demand support, the wet process phosphoric acid market remains strong. It is expected that the short-term acid market will mainly experience a narrow consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the isopropanol market has slightly decreased this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 6690 yuan/ton on Monday and 6670 yuan/ton on Friday, with a price reduction of 0.3%.

The isopropanol market has slightly decreased this week. The market for acetone on the raw material side has declined, with average cost support. The attitude of the cargo holder is still acceptable, the quotation remains at the previous level, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market. They are cautious when picking up goods due to urgent needs and are cautious when placing actual orders. The majority of isopropanol market prices in Shandong region are around 6600-6700 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6650-6700 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 7050-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5890 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5857.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.55%. Market participants are mainly cautious and observing, with quotes maintaining range fluctuations and actual orders being cautious.

In terms of raw material propylene, the propylene market has been fluctuating this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6843.25 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6843.25 yuan/ton, unchanged. At present, inventory is low, downstream demand is good, the focus of propylene offers has increased, and market trading is still acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market has slightly decreased this week. The market for acetone on the raw material side has declined, while propylene has fluctuated within the range, with average cost support. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and actual orders are handled with caution. It is expected that the isopropanol market will experience slight fluctuations within the short-term range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been raised twice recently, with a 100 yuan/ton increase on Thursday and a 100 yuan/ton increase on Friday. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline in East China has risen to 9450 yuan/ton, with acceptance of 9550 yuan/ton. It is reported that due to the continuous rise in the price of raw material pure benzene, aniline enterprises have reduced their profits and faced losses. Factories have rationally pushed up prices, and downstream market entry enthusiasm is still acceptable. It is expected that there will be limited room for aniline to continue to rise in the short term, and the main focus will be on digesting the increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market first rose and then fell. From November 1st to 29th, the MTBE price first rose from 8664 yuan/ton and then fell to 8624 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.25% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 10.24%.

In the first half of the month, there were frequent fluctuations in the operation and maintenance of the equipment, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. The industry continues to suffer losses, and suppliers actively support the market, limiting the room for market price fluctuations. The overall downstream demand is average, and there is a game between supply and demand, resulting in a stalemate in the focus of the domestic BDO market.

In mid month, the domestic BDO market remained on the sidelines, with orders in urgent need being delivered. At present, it is in a period of transition between the old and new cycles, lacking clear news guidance. Industry players are mostly holding steady and observing, while spot negotiations are light, and the overall market situation is temporarily stable.

At the end of the month, although the existing equipment was replaced, the temporary faulty equipment was restarted and some equipment was put into negative operation, resulting in an increase in industry capacity utilization and a weakening of supply side support. Downstream industry contracts are following up, spot trading is light, holders are cautious, and the market focus is stable with a downward trend.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly improved, the market supply has increased, and the expected increase in market supply of goods has weakened supply side support.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The power restrictions in Inner Mongolia have eased, and the market supply capacity has increased. With the rise in prices in the early stage, trade inversion has led to a trading environment list. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market was relatively strong in September, and the cost of BDO was influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, most downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBAT, and polyurethane have reduced production loads due to equipment load reduction or maintenance, resulting in a decrease in raw material digestion. The demand side of BDO is negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, the supply of goods in the market will increase, while the pace of downstream demand will follow suit. Spot trading volume will be light, and the supply-demand contradiction will intensify. The BDO analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic BDO market is weak and consolidating.

Analysis: This week (11.25-29), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong continued to be sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.22%. The main reason for the loose supply performance is that the early maintenance equipment has gradually resumed, the manufacturer’s operating rate has increased, and coupled with the increase in the manufacturer’s urea to ammonia conversion volume, the supply has significantly increased. The increase in ammonia volume has put pressure on the price of liquid ammonia. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-150 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2650-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: As winter approaches and fertilizer procurement is off-season, downstream operating rates will significantly decrease, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. In the later stage, supply pressure may be partially alleviated. On the one hand, operating rates will decline with lower prices. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other areas may put pressure on transportation, and local supply may be scarce. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, but local localization may bring about price fluctuations.

This week, the epoxy propane market hit bottom and rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8505 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.31% compared to the beginning of this week (8617.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: From November to December at the end of the year, maintenance will be concentrated in the East China region. The 400000 tons/year HPPO unit in the Lianyungang region will be shut down for maintenance on November 11th, with an estimated 45 days. The 270000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Zhejiang Petrochemical may also be scheduled for maintenance in mid November, with only the 200000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Shenghong operating normally. The market supply is tight, and the epoxy propane market is rising in price.

Raw material side: The price of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side fluctuates, and the cost side of epoxy propane enterprises is under high pressure. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6825.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: Insufficient follow-up on downstream procurement, sluggish actual market transactions, and a focus on essential procurement, cautious observation.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the market supply is tight, downstream procurement follow-up is insufficient, and a wait-and-see attitude is strong. Demand based procurement is the main focus, and it is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of plasticizer DOP first rose and then fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the DOP price was 9176.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.93% compared to the DOP price of 9551.25 yuan/ton on November 14th; Compared to November 1st, the DOP price of 9101.25 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.82%. The equipment of isooctanol enterprises stopped short, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizers increased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises remained stable, with sufficient supply of plasticizers. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, and the demand for plasticizers is falling, causing the price of plasticizer DOP to rise first and then fall.

Downstream demand declines

Downstream PVC product enterprises are gradually experiencing a decline in production, and as we enter November, the traditional off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. As the weather in the north gradually turns cold, demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

The cost of raw materials first increased and then decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the price of isooctanol was 9300 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 9766.67 yuan/ton on November 14th; Compared to November 1st, the price of isooctanol at 9033.33 yuan/ton first increased and then decreased, with a rise of 2.95%. In mid November, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises experienced a short shutdown, resulting in a decrease in isooctanol supply and a fluctuating rise in isooctanol prices. During the off-season of the market, the demand support for isooctanol is insufficient, and the supply of isooctanol is weakened. The demand is average, and the price of isooctanol first rises and then falls.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, the prices of raw materials will fluctuate and fall, the downward pressure of isooctanol will increase, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The off-season is approaching, and demand expectations are decreasing, resulting in cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market remained stable this week. As of November 24th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price on November 18th.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of maleic anhydride remained stable this week, while Wanhua began to increase its burden. The resumption time of production for the Qingdao plant has not yet been determined; This week, the prices of the main factories for maleic anhydride have increased, while dealer quotations remain stable. The market is cautious in chasing higher prices, and new orders with urgent needs are mainly being followed up. As of November 24th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5500 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has risen this week, while the n-butane market is weak. As of November 24th, the price in Shandong is around 5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The unsaturated resin market remained stable this week, with downstream essential purchases being the main focus. There is limited support for unsaturated resin, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; In the early stage, the ex factory price of maleic anhydride increased, and the dealer price slightly followed suit. Currently, downstream buyers are cautious about chasing higher prices, and first-time purchases are the main focus. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 18th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price remained at 5520 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%. The domestic ethanol market is experiencing a weak decline, with some previously shut down maintenance facilities resuming production and the operating load gradually increasing, resulting in an increase in spot supply; The prices of raw corn production areas are fluctuating, but the demand side support is flat, with accompanying replenishment being the main trend, and the ethanol market price is weak and stagnant.

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices have fluctuated and stabilized. As the weather gradually turns colder in production areas, the quality of new grain is gradually recovering, and farmers’ reluctance to sell is becoming stronger. Traders’ purchase prices have stabilized after a slight increase. The impact of ethanol cost is mixed.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable with small fluctuations. The Fukang Fourth Line, Heilongjiang Shenglong, and Dongfeng Hualiang facilities have resumed production, and the operating load is gradually increasing. Some areas may see an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

Demand side, demand side Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; There is not much change in the production of ethyl acetate. The impact of short-term ethanol demand is mostly stable.

In the future, it is predicted that the supply side spot supply will rise by a narrow margin, the demand side Baijiu consumption will not change much, and the overall production and sales will be slightly flat. The ethanol analysts of the business community predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly operate weakly and stably.