1、 Price trend

 

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According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell violently this month, and the price fell broadly. The price of toluene was 8900 yuan / ton on July 1 and 7640 yuan / ton on July 28, down 14.16% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 31.72%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Crude oil fell broadly this month, coupled with the weakening market interest in Asian American arbitrage, toluene in Asia fell deeply, and the support of external news was weak. Domestically, the downstream market of toluene is generally poor, the demand of the gasoline industry is weak, and the downstream market for high priced toluene is poor. Poor domestic demand has become an important factor to suppress the price of toluene. Under the influence of multiple bad news in the month, toluene fell broadly.

 

In the external market, the price of toluene in Asia fell sharply this month. On July 28, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $960 / ton, down $265 / ton, or 21.63%.

 

In terms of crude oil, there was a long short game in crude oil during the month, and concerns about tight supply remained, but the Federal Reserve and many central banks increased interest rates, intensifying market concerns about economic recession, and crude oil fluctuated widely. As of July 28, Brent fell by $7.67 / barrel, or 6.68%; WTI fell $9.34 / barrel, or 8.83%.

 

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell continuously this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 17625 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 15975 yuan / ton, down 9.36% from the beginning of the month and up 5.33% from the same period last year.

 

In the PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized after falling in the middle of this month. The price was 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9550 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fell by 4.5% compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 34.51% compared with the same period last year.

 

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In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province was weak this month, and the price fell violently. The price was 9092 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8479 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 6.75% from the beginning of the month and up 6.9% from the same period last year.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

On the cost side (crude oil), the macro side is still affected by the economy. The interest rate hikes of central banks in many countries bring downward risks to the economy, and the outlook for global commodities is also affected by it; However, the logic of medium and short-term supply and demand fundamentals has not changed, the expectation of supply tightening has not been lifted, and the trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

 

Crude oil shocks, and the cost side support is loose; Toluene exports have weakened, domestic demand is sluggish, the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and toluene may continue to decline. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.

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