1、 Price data

As of June 26, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8701.00 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from 8793.25 yuan / ton on June 20. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8600-8700 yuan / ton.

As of June 26, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8400.00 yuan / ton, down 1.83% from 8556.67 yuan / ton on June 20. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8400-8500 yuan / ton.

On June 26, the naphtha commodity index was 107.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.71% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 154.24% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the local refining naphtha price fell at a high level, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market mentality was pessimistic, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the refineries continued to reduce prices and actively shipped.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hike by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. The US inflation in May exceeded expectations. The CPI soared to 8.6% year-on-year. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points also set a record. The fear of further increasing the risk of global economic recession, coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, has led to major changes in market expectations. The dollar rose again, risky assets were sold off again, and the stock market, bulk commodities and other fields fell on a large scale. Crude oil bears the brunt. It is already at a relatively high level in history. Under the condition that the tight supply situation has not changed, the panic has dealt a heavy blow to the oil price.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 8570 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from last week. Mixed xylene continued its decline this week, and the price fell broadly. On June 17, the price was 8840 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 8270 yuan / ton, down 6.45% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, up 67.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market trading was cautious, the wait-and-see mood was strong, the terminal demand was not significantly good, and the refineries cut prices and shipped. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.