1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, toluene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, and on Friday (June 24), the price was 8570 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 48.24%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil and the external market weakened, and the external news was poor. The PX market in the downstream of toluene weakened, the terminal demand was poor, the gasoline blending market continued to fall, the market demand was light, and the mentality of the operators was poor.
In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia fell violently this week. On Thursday (June 23), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $1210 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $45 / ton, or 3.59%.
In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight global oil supply still exists, but the market is worried that the expectation of the Federal Reserve to significantly raise interest rates may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and crude oil fell this week. As of June 24, Brent’s price was flat this week compared with last week; WTI fell $1.94/barrel, or 1.77%.
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Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China rose continuously this week. On June 17, the price was 17325 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 17700 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.16% over last week and 28.26% over the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (June 24), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 67.69% compared with the same period last year. As of the 23rd, the closing price in Asia was USD 1275 / T FOB Korea and USD 1293 / T CFR China
In terms of gasoline, the gasoline price in Shandong fell violently this week. On June 17, the price was 9516.8 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 9157 yuan / ton, down 3.78% from last week and up 15.57% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, crude oil is playing a long and short game. The expectation of tight supply and demand growth give support to the oil price. The expectation of interest rate hikes in many countries drag down the economy, but the short-term oil price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.
The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, toluene in the external market still has a downward trend, and the trend of domestic toluene returns to the demand side. The downstream demand is poor, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and toluene may continue to weaken. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.
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