According to the data monitoring of business agency, general plastic plate fell in March, the first half of the horizontal plate was sorted out, and the center of gravity in the next half of the month moved down. In March 2021, there were 3 commodities in the price rise and fall list of general plastics price, 5 commodities fell, and 0 commodities with a rise and fall of 0. The main commodities rising were HDPE (0.90%), LDPE (0.72%), PVC (0.14%); the main commodities falling were PS (-8.72%), EPS (-8.35%), PP (wire drawing) (-4.23%). Both rose and fell to – 3.29% this month.
According to the data, the general plastic products rose less and fell a lot in March, 8 commodities in the plate and 3 commodities rising, HDPE ranked the top of the list, but the rise in March was less than 1%, while the PS, the biggest decline, fell nearly 9% in March. The comparison shows that the general plastic plate overall trend in March is weak. The following is a detailed view:
March PE market first high and low into the rising and then consolidation stage
First of all, PE market, in March, the three major varieties of PE spot rose and fell, among which HDPE and LDPE in East China rose as a whole, accounting for the top two of the general plastic plate, but the increase was not obvious. Lldpe3 in East China fell overall, down 3.33 percent in the month. Overall, the trend of PE spot market in March can be divided into two parts: the first half and the second half. In the first half of the month, the three varieties of PE stock continued the rise in February, and the overall center of gravity moved up. In the next half of the month, PE spot three varieties have fallen to different degrees, among which LLDPE is greatly affected by futures market and the most obvious decline.
In the first half of the month, PE market generally increased slightly, with the rise of three varieties in spot varies, among which LDPE in East China is the most prominent. In March, Maoming high-voltage equipment maintenance brought some support to the high-voltage market. In addition, the construction rate of agricultural film and mulch increased significantly in March, and the increase of linear demand brought some support to the market. The spot three varieties have continued the trend of February rise, and the center of gravity continues to move up. In the next half of the month, PE market declined mainly, except for the increase of 100 yuan / ton by Fushun Petrochemical in East China, the decrease range of other varieties was 50-500 yuan / ton. Futures market fell continuously in the next half of the month, bringing some pressure on the spot market. Downstream, the film industry gradually entered the off-season, while the shed film market has not opened, and the market demand is not followed up enough. The ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises has declined, and the market investment atmosphere is poor. The merchant shipment is blocked, many follow the market, the profit distribution report is the main. The terminal is mainly supplemented as required, and the actual offer focuses on a single talk.
At the end of the month, international crude oil rose slightly, futures market turned red, and the market mentality was favorable. The inventory of two oil is still at a low level on a year-on-year basis. In terms of demand, the start rate of agricultural film has fallen due to seasonal influence, and the pipe and packaging film have been improved. But the downstream mentality is general, multi-dimensional replenishment is on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good. The upstream enterprises’ operating rate continued to maintain a high level, with a small increase in production. In general, PE spot market is not in a small space to fall, and it is expected to rise in April or volatility.
PVC roller coaster market ups and downs in March
According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 by the electricity and stone method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8775 yuan / ton on March 30, up 0.14% from the beginning of the month, up 55.43% compared with the same period last year.
In March, influenced by the dual control policy of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, raw materials Carbide reached a 10-year high, with strong cost support, good PVC export, strong panel, and helped PVC prices keep rising. Futures prices rose to a new high in nearly 10 years, which can be said to be a rapid rise. PVC market in the late days of high callback, prices continue to decline, waiting for demand to follow up. Near the end of the month, PVC stopped falling slightly, but the rise was fleeting, prices across the world generally decreased. At present, the downstream is not active in high price PVC procurement, the trading atmosphere is not warm or hot, bargain hunting, and the main wait-and-see, but it is just needed. The price of raw materials Carbide continued to decline, the cost side support gradually declined, the panel was weak, and the spot market price was loose.
PVC analysts of business society believe that the current cost price falls and the transaction of high price is flat, the trend of PVC is relatively volatile in the short term and the price continues to decline. However, the raw material price is difficult to fall back to the previous level quickly, so the cost side support is still in existence, while the downstream demand is also following up step by step, and PVC enterprises are about to enter the maintenance season, the supply end is expected to tighten, and the favorable factors are superimposed PVC market is not lack of opportunities for rising.
Digestion capacity expanded, PP fell at high in March
According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic PP market in March showed a gradual decline trend, and the spot price of each brand was down. As of April 1, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic producers and traders was about 8983.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.94% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, with a 37.15% increase year on year.
In March, the propylene market was down at a high level, and the cost end of PP was generally supported. At the beginning of the month, the domestic was affected by the rapid resumption of work, and the demand on the site was rapidly launched. According to reports, the overall average start rate of domestic polypropylene plant in the first quarter was about 93%, which is located in the historical high area. Supply in overseas markets is still tight, and export orders have increased in some way this month. However, in the second ten days, Dongming Petrochemical Company increased 200000 tons / year capacity, coupled with 850000 tons / year capacity added in the previous two months, and the rapidly expanding supply faced pressure on domestic propylene prices. Downstream factories are gradually in conflict with high price orders, and they are not willing to receive goods. The on-site trading and investment are not smooth, and there is a price reduction and order operation at the end of the month.
PP analysts of business agency think: March domestic PP spot market trend is mainly down. The upstream propylene price is callback, but it is still at a high level, and the support for PP cost end is still acceptable. Recently, the supply in the field has expanded, the industry competition is intensified, and the high price spot delivery and investment situation is not good. In addition, the demand under high opening rate is lack of positive feedback, which makes PP trend not ideal this month. Now it has entered the peak maintenance season, the output of the polymerization plant is expected to shrink, and the trend of PP market is expected to be improved by supply side and stop falling.
High load operation of the industry in March ABS fell
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, ABS market first suppressed and then rose in March, and spot price position declined in general. As of April 1, the mainstream price of general-purpose ABS was about 18300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.14% compared with the average price level in early March, with a year-on-year increase of 68.66%.
At present, the price of ABS cost end is rising and falling, and the spot price of ABS continues to fall in the middle of this month, and the rebound appears in the latter ten days. In March, the petrochemical enterprise started at a high rate, and the plant was close to full load operation. In terms of supply, the total domestic production of ABS in this month is more than 360000 tons, and the supply in the field is relatively abundant. The market competition is strengthened, and the purchasing side’s resistance to high price goods increases. In addition, the price position of ABS is higher due to the favorable upstream of the early stage, the downstream factory replenishment needs to be operated, the demand kinetic energy is insufficient, and the social inventory starts to rise. But gradually entering the demand peak season of the household appliances industry began to develop, stabilized the demand side of ABS, spot prices immediately stopped falling rebound.
Analysts at business news agency think: ABS market fell high in March, and ended falling and recovering at the end of the month. The trend of cost end is different, which supports ABS cost surface generally. The continuous high opening rate eased the supply side which had been tense in the early stage, and the spot supply has turned warm. Downstream plants have just to purchase and demand has risen at the end of the month. But from the market performance this week, downstream factories are still more resistant to high price sources. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic ABS price will be stable.
Post market forecast
After a sharp rise in the market in February, the general plastic plate as a whole entered the finishing stage after the rise. In March, the overall trend of the plate was weak, and the market mostly digested the previous gains. Individual products were restrained by the weakness of raw material products, and the prices fell significantly. Looking at the international crude oil market, the overall decline in March, with frequent and large fluctuations in that month, bringing Limited benefits to plasticized products. But on the whole, there are still positive factors for general plastic products, with limited space to fall. General plastic products may be able to reverse the situation in April, with more gains and less losses.