1、 Price trend:
According to the data of business club’s block list, the overall performance of domestic PA6 market in March was a high decline, and the spot price was gradually reduced. As of April 1, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 15000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.86% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 44.23% compared with the same period last year.
2、 The influencing factors were analyzed
Upstream, the domestic market of caprolactam rose first and then fell, showing a ladder Market of rising and falling. The spot price amplitude of the whole month was more than 5%. At the beginning of the month, the market continued to take advantage of the general rise in the cost side of petrochemical products in February. The average monthly high was about 14150 yuan / ton on the 9th. In the middle of the year, the supply of caprolactam was in short supply and the profit was exhausted. The influence of upstream and downstream products on caprolactam began to dominate the market. Then the domestic spot price began to fall. At present, caprolactam has entered the downward channel due to both cost side and demand side bad news, but now it has entered the peak maintenance season, and the sharp decrease of spot supply may support the spot price of caprolactam. It is suggested to pay close attention to the manufacturer’s maintenance plan in the near future.
The price of raw material caprolactam rose and fell, and the cost support of PA6 changed from strong to weak. In the first ten days of March, PA6 still rose due to the tightening supply of petrochemical industry chain outside the market. As soon as entering the middle of March, PA6 began to decline and continued to the end of the month. This month, the supply side is relatively abundant, and the downstream factories insist on the rigid demand based purchasing strategy, which conflicts with high price goods. The overall profit of polymerization plant decreased, and the inventory of some models increased rapidly. Merchants are more active in shipping, and the gradually reduced spot price forces manufacturers to reduce the load. According to the news, the operating rate of PA6 industry has dropped to 70% at the end of this month.
3、 Future forecast:
Business community analysts believe: in March, the upstream caprolactam of PA6 ended, the positive market of supply side began to callback, and the support of PA6 cost side weakened. At present, the demand of PA6 downstream plants is weak, the market trading power is insufficient, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is rising. On the whole, the fundamentals of PA6 are not optimistic at present. In addition, the recent overhaul and restart of the device are basically equal. It is expected that the price of PA6 will continue to decrease slightly.