1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products fell. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong was 1385.25 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1357.75 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.99% and 10.28% higher than that of last year. On September 24, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 107.16, flat with yesterday, down 31.13% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 60.20% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The market of petroleum coke is greatly affected by the coming of the double festival, and the price of petroleum coke rises and falls. In terms of low sulfur coke, due to the limited resources of low sulfur coke and better downstream demand, the price of low sulfur coke is still good. In terms of medium and high sulfur coke, the downward risk is relatively large, because the trend of electrolytic aluminum is obvious.

Upstream: the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of main contracts rose by US $0.38 to US $40.31/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts rising by $0.20 to $42.46/barrel. Oil prices rose slightly, mainly supported by signs of tight US crude oil supply.

Downstream: in recent years, the general trend of glass spot market is general, and the delivery speed of production enterprises has not changed much, mainly to increase the funds for delivery and withdrawal, and the market prices of some manufacturers have been adjusted sporadically. At present, the orders of processing enterprises are fair, the purchase of glass is mainly based on rigid demand, and the market transaction is general. At the same time, most of the production lines for ignition and resumption in some areas also play a normal capacity, increasing the supply capacity of the local and surrounding areas. Generally speaking, there is little change in the inventory of traders and production enterprises. In terms of carbon, the recent price drop in the raw material market is good for carbon formation, but the downstream electrolytic aluminum continues to decline, which is a blow to the mentality of the industry. It is expected that the carbon price will be under pressure in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 37th week of 2020 (9.14-9.18), among which there are 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the total commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are WTI crude oil (9.84%), Brent crude oil (8.09%) and MTBE (3.61%). There were two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top two products were LPG (- 1.88%) and fuel oil (- 1.36%). This week, the average rise and fall was 1.85%.

Business agency petroleum coke analysts believe: the current decline in the price of petroleum coke, the price of weak operation, manufacturers before the festival more stable shipment, inventory control. It is expected that the current trend of Petroleum Coke will continue before the festival, depending on the downstream market demand.