1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on July 31, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 6487 yuan / ton, which was 0.97% higher than that at the beginning of the week, 3.8% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 3.78% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, PVC futures strong shock, spot market decline temporarily, prices slightly up. Since the middle of July, PVC market has been in the callback stage, near the end of the month a small rebound, boosting the market atmosphere. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is flat, and the operating rate of downstream products industry decreases, about 70%, and the demand decreases. However, the support is still there. The rainy weather in the South and the public health events in some areas have restrained some downstream demand and continued to maintain the rigid demand. The market inquiry heat is general, and the actual transaction is not high. Therefore, the increase this week is limited, and the mainstream prices are rising at 50%- Most of them are in the range of 100 yuan, and the manufacturer’s profit is fair. At the same time, in August, the overhaul of PVC enterprises is coming to an end, and the operating rate and output are gradually increasing. The enterprises are under pressure to carry goods, and there is a risk of price callback. The future market may continue to fluctuate.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 31, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6250-6650 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6580-6650 yuan / ton, that of Changzhou is 6600-6680 yuan / ton, that of Hebei is 6400-6500 yuan / ton, and that of Guangzhou is 6600-6680 yuan / ton.

In terms of futures, the opening price of V2009 contract on Friday was 6605, the highest price was 6635, the lowest price was 6520, and the closing price was 6610, up 5%, or 0.08%. The trading volume was 141000, with a decrease of 65000. The position was 147000, decreased by 1882. Futures market high volatility.

Crude oil: on July 31, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.27/barrel, up $0.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.52/barrel, up $0.27. Oil prices rose slightly, mainly due to a record reduction in US production in May.

Ethylene, as of the 29th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $795-805 / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at $700-710 / T. The European ethylene market price is FD, northwest Europe closed at 749-758 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 690-698 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States remained stable, with the price of 339-357 US dollars / ton, showing a downward trend as a whole. Current crude oil: according to the previous agreement reached by OPEC +, the record production reduction will end in July. If OPEC + reduces the share of production reduction, it may further break the balance of the current oil market, and there is a risk of downward oil price. So business agency data analysts expect ethylene prices to fall mainly below.

Calcium carbide, in late July, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide. Although the downstream PVC market has declined, the decline is limited. The downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide, and the calcium carbide production capacity is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is relatively tight. The later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late July.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that the current PVC futures are strong and volatile, and the PVC spot market will rise slightly. However, in the off-season demand, the downstream’s acceptance of high-end PVC is limited, and the enthusiasm for pursuing the rise is not high. Manufacturers are under pressure to deliver goods, and there is a risk of downward adjustment. It is expected that the trend of PVC will continue to fluctuate in the short term.