Inventory continued to decline, aluminum price broke through 15000 line for the second time in July

According to the data of business agency, on July 31, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market was 15010 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.41% compared with the average market price of 14376.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (July 1), 3.14% higher than the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 11230 yuan / ton, up 33.58%.

 

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In July, the price of aluminum ingot jumped to the peak value of 15343.33 yuan / ton on July 13, and then the price fell continuously. On July 17, the price of aluminum ingot fell to 14380 yuan / ton, then stopped falling and stabilized, and rose slightly. At the end of the month, the price of aluminum ingot returned to 15000 yuan / ton.

 

Data of aluminum industry in the first half of the year

 

Domestic production:

 

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June 2020, China’s original aluminum output was 17.889 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; aluminum production was 26.458 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; alumina output was 35.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, a decrease of 2.1% compared with the first quarter.

 

Among them, the national electrolytic aluminum production in June was 3.004 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.42%.

 

In terms of export:

 

From January to June of 2020, the export of unshaped and rolled aluminum and aluminum products was 2.366 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%; from January to June, the export of aluminum products was 2.224 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%, and the decline rate was 2.9 percentage points larger than that of the first quarter; among them, the export of unshaped and rolled aluminum products in June was 354000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30%.

 

Import:

 

From January to June of 2020, the total amount of original aluminum import was 162300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 390%; from January to June, the import of raw aluminum was 629000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 591.1%; from January to June, the cumulative import of alumina was 1939000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 501.3%; from January to June, the import of bauxite (physical volume) was 58.31 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%; from January to June, the import of aluminum scrap was 389000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 53.9%..

 

Among them, the original aluminum import volume in June was 123500 tons, including 0086 tons of tariff code 76011010 and 123400 tons of tariff code 76011090. In June 2020, the import volume of raw aluminum increased by 574% month on month, and increased by 4060% compared with June last year. In June, 422600 tons of alumina were imported.

 

The data shows that in the first half of 2020, the output of domestic aluminum industry increased steadily, the import of bauxite and smelting products increased year-on-year, and the decline of downstream aluminum exports expanded.

 

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Social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to move down vs. capacity increases in advance

 

On July 23, domestic spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 70.2 tons, 6000 tons less than last week. At the end of the month, the social inventory of aluminum ingots fluctuated below 690000 tons.

 

In the second half of the year, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places is expected to be large. According to statistics, the new equipment capacity in the above areas will be about 3 million tons in 2020, which will increase the market supply pressure. On the one hand, based on the sluggish investment in the first half of the year, some production capacity will be gradually put into operation in the second half of the year. On the other hand, the aluminum ingot price is rising, and the profit per ton of aluminum supports the manufacturers’ willingness to put into production.

 

Future forecast

 

In the traditional off-season of aluminum market from June to August, the price of electrolytic aluminum was firm. At present, a large part of electrolytic aluminum supply appeared in the form of “aluminum water aluminum material”. In addition, the consumption scenarios of domestic downstream real estate industry, automobile consumption, cable and so on are expected to be good, and the spot aluminum ingot de stocking is obvious. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will still be strong in the near future

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