1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on January 6 was 6850 yuan / ton, down 0.36% compared with the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on the weekend (10 days), up 5.41%%% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the PVC commodity index was 86.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.52% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 48.41% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
Products: this week PVC market overall weak, prices fell slightly. In recent days, the U.S. – Iraq conflict has led to a narrow range of volatility in the futures market, and the spot market has begun to weaken in stability, and the heat has gradually subsided. With the close of the new year, the downstream factories are going to have holidays one after another. Before the new year, they were not actively hoarding goods and basically maintained their rigid needs. Facing the high price of PVC for a long time, the downstream products industry began to feel tired. At this stage, the social inventory has increased, the downstream demand is weak, there is pressure on businesses to ship, the actual trading is average, and the market is weak as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 10, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6600-6950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 6850-6950 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 6750-6950 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 6850-6920 yuan / ton. Prices around the country remained stable on the whole and fluctuated slightly.
Futures: in recent days, the U.S. – Iraq conflict has led to a narrow range of volatility in the futures market, with the main PVC v2005 contract surging higher, closing at 6620 yuan / ton, up from + 105 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume of 128599 hands, + 27528 hands; positions of 269917 hands, + 42080 hands, basis difference of 200 yuan, – 105 yuan; 5-9 price difference of 45 yuan, + 10 yuan.
Industry chain: disturbed by various news, although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists, and there is certain uncertainty in the direction of the situation. In the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, and ethylene market will rise. In terms of calcium carbide, after the adjustment in December, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the equipment maintenance was completed, and the production capacity increased. This week, the ex factory price of carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are four kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which PC (4.38%), cis-1.67% and natural rubber (0.55%) are the top three commodities. There are 6 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top 3 products falling were PP (- 0.86%), HDPE (- 0.85%) and NBR (- 0.82%). This week’s average was 0.16%.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, the social inventory of PVC has increased, the downstream demand is weak, there is pressure on businesses to ship, and the focus of individual transactions has shifted down. With the approaching of the annual pass, downstream factories have been on holiday, and the demand side support is weak, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure in the short term.