1、 Price trend
The domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, 2.78% higher than that of the same period last month and 6.93% lower than that of the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
Product: this week, the market of cyclohexanone was stabilized and sorted out. The main price in Shandong was 7300-7450 yuan / ton (ex factory in cash). The external price of some factories was increased, and the low price was reduced. During the week, pure benzene was running at a high level, and cyclohexanone was still mostly at a loss. It was sold at a low price. The downstream chemical fiber partial oxidation process was purchased, and the solvent just needed to be purchased. The total demand was general, the market delivery speed slowed down, and cyclohexanone was in abundant spot supply, and the market was consolidated. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong market is delivered in 7400-7500 yuan / ton spot exchange, the mainstream quotation in East China market is delivered in 7700-7900 yuan / ton spot exchange, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market is delivered in 7900-8000 yuan / ton spot exchange.
Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene fell slightly. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiation in East China is 5780-5850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 5600-5800 yuan / ton. This week involves cross year and new year’s Day holidays, the market trading activity is relatively weak. At present, the listing price of the main business in January is high, and the price difference between the settlement price in December is wide. However, the downstream products suffer losses, and the pure benzene price is under pressure. It is expected that the main business price will be lowered. In addition, due to the expected increase of subsequent arrival ships and the expected market entry of new large-scale chemical qualified products, the industry expects the supply of pure benzene to increase in the future, and the price has a downward expectation. Therefore, the overall market atmosphere in the week is light, and the focus is slightly weak.
Caprolactam: this week, the caprolactam market continued to be strong. Sinopec’s listing price of caprolactam in January 2020 is announced at 11500 yuan / ton (liquid superior products will be accepted and delivered in six months), which will give a certain boost to the market. The slice inventory of the downstream polymerization plant decreased, and the recent raw material stock was centralized. In addition, the North plant was affected by the haze and the multi load was not high. The supply of caprolactam in the field was tight, which supported the seller’s quotation to rise. In terms of price, the spot price in East China market was 11000-11100 yuan / ton, which was delivered by acceptance, up 100 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, up 0.91%.
Adipic acid: the adipic acid market is waiting for the end of invoicing before the new year’s day and the beginning of the month after the new year’s day. The overall activity is not high, and the market is light and volatile. Specifically, the billing policy is the focus of the week. In December, the listing of pure benzene main business increased 650 yuan / ton, the average price increased 209 yuan / ton, and the actual price of adipic acid increased 100-200 yuan / ton reasonably. Waiting before New Year’s Day is the main thing. A small number of Liaohua spot and new moon offers are all above 8 words. On the middle of the week and new year’s day, it is also the first working day after the festival. Although the pure benzene spot is weak, but the high starting point and adipic acid factory’s attitude towards the market still pressure the middlemen. The new single offer is relatively high-level consolidation. The downstream is flat and some small households gradually have shutdown plans. The demand and enthusiasm for replenishment of raw materials are not high. Further attention should be paid to the attitude of raw materials and main manufacturers. At present, the spot market is waiting for exploration. The new single offer is more than 8000-8250 yuan / ton for acceptance. The supply of Taihua goods needs to be restored. The activity of counter-offer negotiation is not high. The weekly average price of East China market is 8007 yuan / ton, up 1.55% on month basis and 2.19% on year basis.
3、 Future forecast
Recently, the demand for chemical fiber is low, the solvent is purchased on demand, the delivery speed of cyclohexanone slows down and the start-up has not declined significantly, the market is abundant in spot supply, near the Spring Festival, the solvent may be in stock in January, some cyclohexanone oxide process caprolactam plants also have the possibility of further outsourcing, the total demand may slightly improve, but it will not significantly promote the market price. Under the pressure of cost, the cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will not rise or fall in January.