I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in China has fallen again. On October 16, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium in China was 2066 yuan / ton, while on October 22, the average ex factory price was 1983 yuan / ton, down 4.03%. On October 22, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 66.39, down 2.23 points from yesterday, 34.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 6.93% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in recent years, the domestic market of powdery monoammonium has been flat. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of raw sulfur will be stable after the festival. The supply and demand of domestic sulfur market is quiet. The negotiation atmosphere is cold. The industry is waiting for information and guidance. The domestic phosphorus ore market is still running smoothly, and the overall market is almost no fluctuation. Due to regional differences and different production, the price difference is large. Based on several sample areas, the average ex factory price of primary and high-end phosphorus ore is around 420 yuan / ton. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises for monoammonium phosphate is insufficient, and the market situation has not improved.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 5 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on October 22, 2019, among which there is 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (5.05%), ammonium chloride (4.07%) and R22 (1.67%). There are 24 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodity decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were nitric acid (- 8.62%), formaldehyde (37%) (- 4.88%), acetone (- 4.81%). The average price of this day was – 0.42%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association believe that the recent weak market of monoammonium phosphate is weak in autumn, and the industry is pessimistic about the situation of winter storage. It is expected that the market of monoammonium phosphate will continue to move forward in a weak way in the later stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the raw material market and downstream demand.