I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin fell on October 23. On October 22, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5200 yuan / ton, and on October 23, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5133 yuan / ton, with a one-day price drop of 1.28%. On October 23, the paraffin commodity index was 76.43, down 0.99 points from yesterday, down 30.16% from 109.43 (2013-12-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.70% from 63.85, the lowest point on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton. 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: WTI rose $1.49 per barrel on Wednesday (October 23) at $55.97 in December 2019, and Brent rose $1.47 per barrel at $61.17 in December 2019. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract 1912 rose 2.3 yuan to 444.7 yuan / barrel.

Industry chain: domestic market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 has declined. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and few transactions. Prices of some enterprises have been lowered, and most of them have been quoted steadily. Substantial progress has been made in the US China Economic and trade negotiations, with international oil prices rising. The upstream liquid wax price remained stable, while the liquid ammonia price increased slightly. Downstream enterprises have low buying enthusiasm, the market reaction is flat, and most enterprises purchase on demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 23, 2019, there were two kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including one with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top two commodities were epichlorohydrin (8.05%) and sulfuric acid (2.44%). There are 23 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products were ammonium chloride (- 3.91%), caprolactam (- 2.39%) and mixed xylene (- 1.99%). The average price of this day was – 0.23%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin of business association think that the overall atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin market is weak at present and the rise is weak. The raw material market is dominated by horizontal market, the downstream power is insufficient, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin in the later stage will be mainly stagnant. It is suggested to pay attention to downstream demand and real-time market trends.