In August 2019, the crude benzol Market rose after stabilization. The ex-factory price in North China was 3716.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3930 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 5.74%.
The crude benzol commodity index on August 31 was 61.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.32% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 56.79% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).
II. Market analysis:
Domestic market: The crude benzol Market rose 5.74% monthly after this month’s turbulence, and the price entered a stable channel at the end of the month. Since August, the crude benzol market prices have fallen slightly, down by about 100 yuan/ton, mainly due to excessive pre-rise, increased downstream cost pressures, narrowed profit margin, and strong resistance to crude benzol’s high level. Ring. On the 20th or so, the positive factors of the market were released centrally, the external market of pure benzene rose continuously, and downstream profits such as hydrobenzene increased gradually, bringing benefits to the crude benzene market. As of Shandong and Shanxi, the prices of the main markets had risen to about 4100 yuan/ton and 500-550 yuan/ton per week. However, due to the lack of downstream support, hydrobenzene enterprises have more overhauls, limited demand for crude benzene, downstream maintenance just need to replenish, and insufficient market support. By the end of the month, the price of crude benzol in Shandong, Hebei and other places was relatively strong. The price of crude benzol in Shanxi and Henan decreased slightly. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Shandong was around 4100 yuan/ton, while that in Shanxi was about 3950 yuan/ton.
Industry Chain: Crude Oil: In August, crude oil shocks in Europe and the United States declined. Oil distribution fell 6.54% from the end of last month, while U.S. oil fell 3.91% from the end of last month. Bear: Mainly affected by trade disputes, market concerns about slowing economic growth, declining demand for crude oil intensified, and oil prices fell. Game with other positive factors, leading to this month’s international oil price shocks. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil and external pure benzene continued to fall, which had a negative impact on the domestic market, and the downstream market was relatively weak, and the price of pure benzene fell. Affected by typhoon in the middle of the year, some installations in Shandong stopped, the supply decreased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded. Subsequently, due to the shortfall in the supply of pure benzene in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk continued to rise, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remained open, supporting the domestic pure benzene market to improve.
3. Trend forecast:
With the National Day approaching in September, manufacturers are facing increasing pressure on environmental protection and cautious market mentality. In addition, domestic pure benzene stocks are relatively small, and Korean plant overhaul and European overhaul are not over yet. Global supply is tight, which boosts the market. The crude benzene industry chain is expected to rise slightly next week.