First, the price trend
This week, the factory price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise. The mainstream quotation of the market has a trend of close to 15,000 yuan/ton. The main producing area is Yunnan. The large-scale production enterprises temporarily accumulate inventory, with very few external shipments, and the market supply is reduced. Phosphorus prices are on the rise. At present, there is still room for market upside, manufacturers are limited to ship, and the confidence to wait for the high price is sufficient. Relatively speaking, the other major producers are reluctant to sell.
Second, the market analysis
Products: The price of yellow phosphorus in the previous period almost fell below 14,000 yuan / ton. The market was affected by the high price of coke and graphite electrodes, and the price was raised. The overall operating rate of the market has decreased. Most of the manufacturers have run upside down during the wet season this year. At present, they are reluctant to sell and have a strong mentality. The downstream inquiries were positive this week, but the overall market volume was not high, and the company’s operating rate was about 40%. Considering that the yellow phosphorus enterprises accounted for the majority of loss operations this year, it is expected that some of the restricted enterprises will be willing to resume normal sales when the price of yellow phosphorus is close to 15,000 yuan/ton.
Industry chain: The price of phosphate ore in the upstream of this week remained at a high level, and the price of high-grade phosphate rock was generally raised by 20-30 yuan/ton. The installation started normally and the supply was tight. Coke prices have risen and the recent increase has exceeded 15%. The downstream phosphate market price has recently recovered, and the ammonium phosphate stocks are low, driving the downstream demand of phosphoric acid. The terminal phosphorus fertilizer will usher in the winter storage procurement season in late September, but the overall domestic ammonium phosphate and phosphoric acid operating rate is still low, and it is difficult in the short term. Pulling demand for yellow phosphorus.
Third, the market outlook
Yellow Phosphorus analysts of the Chemical Industry Chemicals Branch believe that the current cost support of Huang Pho is very strong. The downstream purchases are weak, leading to a fierce bidding for suppliers. Recently, downstream demand has rebounded, and yellow phosphorus prices still have room for growth.