1、 Overall trend

This week (4.20-24) polyethylene showed a downward trend, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was weak. As of April 24, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6266.67 yuan / ton, down 6.47% compared with the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was about 7300 yuan / ton, down 6.11% compared with the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7483.33 yuan / ton, down 6.68% compared with the beginning of the week; large PE varieties dropped 300-600 yuan / ton on Wednesday.

2、 Market analysis

Upstream: crude oil fell first and then rose this week. On April 20, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, with June contract at 20.43 yuan / barrel, down $4.60 (- 18.4%). Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract at $25.57/barrel, down $0.26. At one time, the contract fell to a negative range in May, but from the perspective of the contract in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market. On April 23, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States rose sharply, with the settlement price of major contracts at 16.50 yuan / barrel, up $2.72 or 19.7%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price was 24.79 US dollars / barrel, up 4.42 US dollars or 21.7%. This is also the international crude oil rebound for two consecutive days, with WTI up more than 40%, mainly due to the accelerated production reduction of oil producing countries, as well as peripheral geopolitical factors.

Dynamic of manufacturers: at the beginning of the week, under the attack of international crude oil, petrochemical enterprises continued to decline, successively reducing the ex factory price of PE, and the market cost support strength weakened. Then the linear futures fell back in shock, affecting the market mentality, the mood of merchants was pessimistic, and the price fell accordingly. Downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, more on-demand replenishment, strong wait-and-see mood. Later in the week, the rebound of international crude oil supported the market to a certain extent, and the price stopped falling and returned to stability. At present, the overall contradiction between supply and demand still exists in the market, and the atmosphere continues to be weak.

Futures trend: this week, the futures market first fell and then rose, with a large amplitude. At the beginning of the week, the market fell in shock, the market atmosphere was short, and the weekend futures prices rose. On April 24, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2009 was 6080, the highest price was 6175, the lowest price was 6020, the closing price was 6110, the former settlement price was 5960, the settlement price was 6090, up 150, up 2.52%, the volume was 560181, the position was 353346, and the daily position was 1406. (quotation unit: yuan / ton).

Downstream: at present, it is in the production season of plastic film, the demand for plastic film in the downstream has increased, and the market confidence has improved. The construction of large and medium-sized enterprises in the northern part of geomembrane is acceptable, about 50-80%. However, small and medium-sized enterprises have rarely started construction. The demand for mulch film in South China is coming to an end. Except for some large-scale enterprises to maintain production, most of them have been shut down. Later orders are expected to decrease.

3、 Future forecast

The trend of international crude oil rebounded and the linear futures also rose, bringing certain support to the market. In the late week, most of the prices of petrochemical enterprises have stopped falling and stabilized, and the enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved. However, petrochemical inventory is at a medium and high level, and there is still pressure on sales, or price control. It is expected that the future market will rise in the short term.

On April 20, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, with June contract at 20.43 yuan / barrel, down $4.60 (- 18.4%). Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract at $25.57/barrel, down $0.26. At one time, the contract fell to a negative range in May, but from the perspective of the contract in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market.

June contract is the most active main contract in the current WTI futures market. Although the decline was more than 18% yesterday, the trading price was more than $20 per barrel, still at the bottom of the $20 / barrel range.

WTI contract fell by more than 300% in May, but it is not the main contract, which belongs to the situation of “too much air force” close to delivery (delivery on Tuesday), which shows that oil companies that need to make physical delivery of crude oil in the near future may not find a place to store these crude oil, especially the decline of refining capacity of US refineries leads to the gradual increase of crude oil inventory, and the lack of demand caused by the combined epidemic has already made us oil storage The device has reached its limit. According to data, as of the week of April 17, crude oil inventory in Cushing, the delivery place of West Texas light crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, increased to 61 million barrels, and the crude oil inventory capacity in Cushing was about 78 million barrels. Cushing faces the risk of expansion. In addition, we can see the clue from the floating oil storage. The data shows that the offshore floating oil storage in July 2019 was about 24 million barrels, but up to now, it is estimated that the long-term floating oil storage has reached a record 160 million barrels. According to the business club, the urgency of global storage capacity may cause unprecedented pressure on oil prices in the future, and oil prices may continue to decline. In particular, the epidemic may recover the affected demand in a long term. According to the agency’s calculation, the current crude oil demand has dropped by 30%, about 30 million barrels / day. However, from the perspective of OPEC and other oil producing countries’ production reduction, it is obviously not enough.

In addition, the decline in fuel demand may lead to more and more refinery capacity decline, which will further aggravate the crude oil surplus and inventory shortage. Due to capital constraints, crude oil drilling companies have cut costs and cancelled plans. According to Baker Hughes service, US crude oil drilling companies closed 13% of us drilling platforms this week, so far, more than one third of them have Us drilling has been shut down; however, OPEC + production reduction agreement can not solve the recent problems. The date of OPEC + production reduction agreement is May 1, and from the latest exposed information, it was reported on April 20 that Russia has increased its oil production by nearly 1% in the past three days, which shows that the multi interests of the market do not tend to be consistent, which also makes more market people lose confidence in the production reduction agreement , which will cause the oil price to remain in a bearish state and further increase the downward pressure.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose slightly in April. As of April 20, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 5087.50 yuan / ton, up 50.00 yuan / ton, or 0.99%, compared with 5037.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 10.22% compared with the same period last year. In April, acetic anhydride market was strong and stable.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In April, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated slightly and rose. The downstream enterprises of acetic anhydride gradually resumed construction, and the demand for acetic anhydride recovered. In general, the acetic anhydride enterprises started construction, Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment just resumed construction, the supply is insufficient, and the overall supply of acetic anhydride is tight. At present, the transaction price of acetic anhydride is about 4900 yuan / ton.

Industry chain factor analysis:

The price of acetic anhydride rose slightly in April. The price of acetic acid fluctuated and adjusted, the price of raw materials rose slightly, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose. Acetic anhydride market has a certain degree of support for the future market has a certain good acetic anhydride market.

In April, the price of methanol, raw materials and acetic anhydride rose sharply. Acetic anhydride cost support is sufficient, which is good for acetic anhydride market in the future.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride rose in April and the cost of acetic anhydride rose. The equipment of downstream enterprises started to rise gradually, and the demand for acetic anhydride rose. Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment has just resumed operation, and the supply is insufficient. Acetic anhydride market support role is sufficient. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride in the future will be strong and stable.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate in this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2300 yuan / ton, which is equal to 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 13.11% year on year. On April 17, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, unchanged from yesterday, 3.36% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 125.26 (2020-03-15), and 56.46% higher than the lowest point, 77.37, on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants is normal. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal. Transportation has been alleviated to a certain extent. The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. In recent years, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is not good, the downstream purchase is on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2100-2300 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2200-2600 yuan / ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China fell this week, with the weekend price of 1516.67 yuan / ton, and this week’s price trend fell 3.12%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1450 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1630 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance devices is normal, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site delivery situation is poor. The price trend of nitric acid market has dropped by 50-100 yuan / ton. The decline of nitric acid price is the negative impact of ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has been temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable. On the one hand, the current inventory pressure of the manufacturer is not large at the early stage, and the downstream fertilizer replenishment leads to the continuous stability of the manufacturer’s shipment, but most of the manufacturers report stable today, mainly because the spring farming season has passed, the downstream has ended the centralized preparation, the strength of taking the goods has decreased, and most of the purchases are on demand. At present, the overall supply and demand of the market is in a balanced stage. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation of liquid ammonia in the northern region is 3000-3100 yuan / ton, the price trend of upstream raw materials is temporarily stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the market price of raw materials is slightly lower. For the ammonium nitrate Market, it has lost certain cost support. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association thinks that the market price of ammonium nitrate may be slightly lower in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market ushered in a long-standing rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 2590.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, up 4.5% in the week, with the price down 22.30% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On Tuesday, the trading atmosphere in the methyl ether (Henan) market improved. As of April 10, Hebei Yutai, Shanxi orchid, Dezhou shengdeyuan and other devices had been shut down for maintenance; Henan Yima Xinyuan DME device failed, so no quotation was offered temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 2700 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 2670 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2700 yuan / ton, that of Henan lankaohuitong is 2750 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 2650 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market of methyl ether rebounded upward, and the market operating rate slightly increased from last week, about 10%. At the beginning of the week, the rise of international crude oil for two consecutive days boosted the gas market, the rise of liquefied gas generally, and the rebound of cost methanol, which led to the rise of dimethyl ether. Henan xinlianxin rose 20 yuan / ton every day for 4 consecutive days. At present, in the civil market of liquefied gas, many terminals have recovered, demand has increased, downstream procurement is more active, and market entry has improved. The price of DME remained stable at the end of the week, the demand was still limited, and the market benefit was limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 6 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 2 commodities with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are methanol (6.32%), Brent crude oil (5.14%) and dimethyl ether (4.50%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are asphalt (- 10.68%), WTI crude oil (- 10.11%) and power coal (- 3.45%). This week’s average was – 0.71%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the civil use of liquefied gas is mainly stable, and the methanol market is running higher, which has boosted the market. However, the terminal demand of DME market is still limited, with limited benefits. It is expected that the market will maintain stability in the near future.

On April 14, the sulfur commodity index was 32.92, down 1.47 points from yesterday, 68.30% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), and 27.65% higher than 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China fell 4.26% to 600 yuan / ton on the 14th. Last week, the domestic sulfur market showed a cold performance, the enthusiasm of the downstream market procurement was not high, the port inventory was high, and the consumption was slow. In the end of the spring ploughing with fertilizer, the export of phosphate fertilizer was not clear, the market stalemate and wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the attitude of the industry towards the future market was unstable. At present, the domestic supply and demand performance is stagnant, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the trading atmosphere of the sulphuric acid market is sluggish, and the supply and demand in the market lacks the guidance of substantive information, so the buyer and the seller have different forecasts for the future market. On April 14, refineries in various regions in China adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. Sinopec Zhenhai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced the price of liquid sulfur by 30 yuan / ton, Jinling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced the price of solid sulfur by 30 yuan / ton, East China region by 57-680 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur by 510-600 yuan / ton. Sinopec North China region quotation was temporarily stable. Sinopec Shandong region reduced the price of solid sulfur by 20-30 yuan / ton, and the price was 610-620 yuan / ton 。

Future forecast: it is expected that the domestic sulfur market will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province at the end of this week was 4233 yuan / ton, and the average price at the beginning of this week was 4200 yuan / ton, up 0.79%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4000 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4100 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than last week. The prices of some POM manufacturers rose, and the market demand was average.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, domestic methanol market rebounded and began to rise. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market on April 1 was 1600 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market on April 8 was 1715 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.19%. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell 13.38% month on month and 29.37% year on year.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene analyst of business association thinks that polyoxymethylene may go up due to the positive boost of raw material methanol.

Prices remained stable in the first ten days of this month, with 5800 yuan / ton in East China and other regions, except for 5900 yuan / ton in South China.

As of today, the upstream ethylene CFR market price in Northeast Asia has dropped to 355 US dollars / ton. Affected by the international situation, the price is difficult to rise in a short period of time. The profits of ethylene oxide are still considerable. The price of downstream monomer factories has been raised, the purchasing mentality has been enhanced, and the ethylene glycol has stabilized after a narrow rise. However, the overall support surface is still weak and lacks the power to rise. In the future, some devices will be overhauled, and resources on the market may be tightened to a certain extent.

It is reported that tomorrow’s EO will be increased by 200 yuan / ton, but overall stability maintenance should still be the main thing, and timely attention should be paid to the factory news.

1、 Price trend

In March, the domestic propane market continued to decline, with a large range. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propane market was 3717.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2725 yuan / ton, with a drop of 26.7% in the month. The price was 35.08% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market situation

In March, the trading atmosphere of propane market was light, and the price mainly fell. As of March 31, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have no propane in stock, so they will not offer. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 2700 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Company is 2800 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 2800 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 2800 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the figure that in March, due to the irrational decline of international crude oil, the price of propane Market naturally fell all the way, and the market never recovered. On March 2, the price of international crude oil rebounded sharply under the stimulation of multiple favorable factors, which boosted the mentality of propane Market. In addition, the price of CP was introduced in March, and the decline was less than expected. Downstream more buy up do not buy down mentality, mainly replenishment into the market. The manufacturer’s shipment was smooth, the inventory was released, and the price slightly pushed up. But the good times will not last long. On March 6, OPEC + cooperation collapsed, oil prices plummeted by more than 20%, and propane’s firmness is not there. It follows the trend of crude oil and falls sharply in the short term. On March 16, the international crude oil continued to decline, falling below $30 per barrel again, the cost of imported gas fell, and the propane market was once again depressed, falling 6.57% in just one day. The downstream continued to wait-and-see attitude, entered the market cautiously, and the trading atmosphere of propane market continued to be depressed, with no significant improvement. Until March 19, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rebounded sharply, which brought some benefits to the market. The terminal demand was higher than that in the earlier stage, and the market was able to stop falling and adjust narrowly. At the end of the month, the international crude oil dropped significantly, and the CP price was expected to fall broadly in April, and the propane market fell again.

International crude oil: in March, the international crude oil market staged an amazing avalanche, and the price suffered a “cut back”. According to the data monitored by the business agency, WTI crude oil fell by 57.34%, Brent crude oil fell by nearly 50%. The oil price collapse is naturally one of the “black swan” events in 2020. There are two main reasons: the sharp reduction of global demand caused by social and public events, and the supply risk caused by the “price war” of Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase production.

Latest CP price: Saudi Aramco announced in April that the price of propane and butane were lowered. Propane fell to $230 / T, down $200 / T from last month; butane $240 / T, down $240 / T from last month.

3、 Future forecast

The decline of propane Market in March was relatively large. The main reason for the decline was due to the impact of crude oil. CP’s expectation continued to fall, which continuously depressed the mentality of the industry. The manufacturer’s late shipment situation was light, and the price was constantly lowered to make profits. But during this period, the downstream continued to wait and see, with a more cautious attitude. At present, affected by seasonal factors, with the gradual warming of the weather, the propane market demand is expected to decrease. But at present, the price has been at a low level, and there is little room to fall. It is expected that the propane market will rise to a certain extent in April, and more attention should be paid to the trend of international crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the domestic market price of isomeric xylene fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3110 yuan / ton, down 8.8% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Products: The overseas epidemic continued to spread, worrying about the shrinking demand for crude oil caused by the economic recession. In addition, the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. Affected by this, the domestic xylene price followed the sharp decline. After trump stepped in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, the international oil price jumped sharply, and the domestic xylene price finally ushered in a bottoming out recovery At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3600 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. After trump intervened in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, and the international oil price jumped sharply. By Friday day, Brent fell 9.36%, Brent futures rose 16.32%, WTI futures rose 11.53%, and Dubai futures fell 14.34%.

Downstream, in PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 456 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 474 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will fluctuate and rebound next week. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 3400 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 417 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA prices will stabilize and rebound next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene fell, with the price at 3800 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 450 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea. It is expected that o-benzene will rebound in shock next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business news agency, in the short term, trump is involved in the oil price. Saudi Arabia and Russia have made statements one after another. The crude oil production reduction agreement is now turning, and the technical impact is expected to usher in a shock rebound. In the medium term, it depends on the demand side, when the inflection point of the epidemic occurs and the progress of economic recovery. Next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, worries about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption of work. On the whole, it is expected that the price of xylene in the international crude oil market and the Korean market will gradually fluctuate and stabilize next week. In addition, the domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. In the next week, the price of xylene in the domestic market will fluctuate and stabilize. However, in the environment of high inventory of xylene industry and the industrial chain recovery is not smooth, it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range.