1、 Price trend

This week, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, with an offer of 427.50 yuan / ton, up 71% compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market temporarily stable, July 17 sulfuric acid commodity index was 66.54.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturers’ inventory is small, and the downstream demand is strong. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 350 yuan / ton at weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 240 yuan / ton at weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 550 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; kunshengda of Taiyuan City quoted 570 yuan / T at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has declined slightly recently, and the cost support is generally. However, the market of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in the lower reaches has a positive impact on sulfuric acid, while the low price consolidation of bromine has a negative impact on sulfuric acid. At the same time, some sulfuric acid factories are short of operation recently, the load is reduced, and the supply of sulfuric acid is in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

In the last ten days of July, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. The price of sulfur in the upstream fell slightly, while the rebound in the downstream market was limited. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream was generally positive, and the product trend was downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small decline.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic p-xylene factory was temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 4800 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 4800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.43%.

The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, fuhaichuang plant is on the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is running normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant is running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit is operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is running stably The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has started a production line. Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. This week, the external price of PX fluctuates mainly. As of the end of the week, the closing prices of PX market in Asia are 528-530 USD / T FOB Korea and 546-548 USD / t CFR China. Affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, the external price of PX has little change this week, and more than 40% of domestic products need To import, PX external market closing price shocks to the domestic market to a certain extent, domestic PX market price trend temporarily stable.

The U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices fluctuated this week. As of the 16th, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices fell, with the settlement price of the main contracts at US $40.93/barrel, while the Brent crude oil futures market prices fell to US $43.37/barrel. The main reason is that OPEC + agreed to relax the supply limit of record production reduction, while the number of epidemic cases in the United States continued to surge, causing demand concerns Under the influence of crude oil price fluctuation, the domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

This week, the price trend of downstream PTA market did not change much. As of the end of the weekend, East China PTA Market negotiation was around 3500-3600 yuan, and the recent PTA industry operating load was 89%, and crude oil price shocks supported PTA market price. Up to now, domestic loom operating load is at a low point in the same period of 7 years, while Shengze area grey cloth inventory is at a historical high, so it is difficult to remove inventory. In addition, it is traditional clothing from July to August In the off-season of the industry, the demand has not recovered yet. It is expected that by the end of the third quarter, downstream clothing manufacturers will start to prepare materials. With the impact of Christmas season, the demand is expected to increase. The PTA market price trend is mainly volatile this week, and the PX price trend is stable.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is not stable, and the terminal demand is poor. For upstream Px, on-demand procurement is the main factor, and the price trend of PX market is stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Px, a business agency, believes that crude oil prices are mainly volatile in the near future, but the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is general, and the domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain about 4800 yuan / ton next week.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, on July 14, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong was 4433 yuan / ton, and 4400 yuan / ton at the end of last week, up 0.76%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4100 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Paraformaldehyde is still in general.

The situation of upstream methanol, domestic methanol market slightly increased. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market price was 1635 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 1657 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 1.38% during the week and a month on month increase of 0.45% compared with the same period of last month. The downstream demand of paraformaldehyde was raised by Lido manufacturers. Summer is the traditional off-season, and the demand for paraformaldehyde is general.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe that: the market demand for paraformaldehyde is general, and the price may maintain stable operation.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 1850.00 yuan / ton, which was 21.28% lower than that of the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, July 10 potassium chloride commodity index was 58.73.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at weekend is 1820 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution at weekend is 1880 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In mid July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock in Hong Kong, the weak demand and the downward trend of international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts of the business club believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is mainly low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to keep stable at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1383.33 yuan / ton, and that at the weekend was 1383.33 yuan / ton, with a rise and fall range of 0.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market situation of sodium metabisulfite is still low. The price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1250-1500 yuan / ton, most of which are around 1400 yuan / ton. The market continues to be strong in supply and weak in demand. Downstream trade entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, but the number of new orders is limited. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

This week, the price of domestic soda ash rose slightly by 1.33%, sulfur price remained stable, the processing cost of sodium metabisulfite showed a slight increase trend, the cost of raw materials went up, the terminal demand continued to be weak, the profit margin of manufacturers continued to shrink, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline, with limited space.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that a small rise in the cost of raw materials will support the future market price of sodium metabisulfite to some extent, and the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will stop falling and stabilize as a whole.

According to the feedback of cotton trading enterprises in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and other places, although with the rise of ice and Zhengzhou cotton, several international cotton merchants and importers have lowered the basis deviation of shipping cotton, bonded cotton and customs clearance cotton (customs clearance cotton: CF2009 + basis), but the inquiry and shipment situation has not improved much, especially the medium and high-quality Brazilian cotton and Indian cotton.

According to the survey, up to now, about 150000 tons of old cotton in 2019 have not been sold in Brazilian farmers’ hands; and some stocks are also in the hands of traders and export enterprises; in addition, the continuous depreciation of real against the US dollar and the outbreak of Brazil’s new crown disease have led to a sharp decline in domestic cotton consumption. Therefore, with the countdown of new cotton listing in 2020, the basis of Brazil cotton has been fully opened and the basis has been lowered In addition, the greater the rise of ice, the greater the reduction of Brazilian cotton basis. On July 5 and 6, the basis of M 1-1 / 8 and SM 1-5 / 32 were 8.25-9.25 cents / pound and 9.5-10.5 cents / pound, respectively, which was 3-4 cents / pound lower than that of Brazil cotton in mid June.

There are four main reasons for India’s cotton price to decline under pressure: first, the Indian epidemic situation is “uncontrollable”, and the domestic cotton consumption is still continuing; second, CCI inventory exceeds 10 million bales (another saying is nearly 2 million tons), considering that it is still necessary to purchase at MSP price in 2020 / 21, cotton textile mills and exporters still do not buy the price despite the repeated reduction of sales price; third, the southwest monsoon is not only responsible for this problem India’s farmers were enthusiastic about planting cotton. As of the end of June, India’s cotton planting area had increased by 165% year-on-year, and the prospect of cotton production was optimistic. Fourthly, China’s textile enterprises and traders were very cautious about signing contracts to purchase Indian cotton due to the border conflict between China and India.

Why did Brazilian cotton and Indian cotton trade get cold again? The author’s views are summarized as follows: first, since July 1, the central reserve cotton wheel has effectively replenished the domestic supply of medium and low quality cotton, and some low grade and low index Indian cotton and Brazilian cotton have been squeezed; second, since the middle of April, China has signed a large number of contracts to import American cotton in 2019 / 20 and 2020 / 21, with large arrival and delivery volume in July / 8 / September, and cotton enterprises choose machines Third, China’s requirements on inspection and Quarantine of Brazilian cotton and Indian cotton from epidemic areas are becoming more and more strict; fourth, as domestic sales orders enter the off-season in July and August, the consumption demand of OE yarn, 21s and below cotton yarn is declining (the proportion of cotton mills and cloth mills with joint production restriction and production reduction is relatively high), and the procurement of low and medium quality cotton decreases.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the price of pure benzene showed a downward trend this week and rebounded slightly at the weekend. On June 28, the listed price of pure benzene was 3250-3500 yuan / ton (average price was 3360 yuan / ton); this Sunday (July 5), the listed price of pure benzene was 2900-3300 yuan / ton (average price 3140 yuan / ton), down 220 yuan / ton, or 6.55%, compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene decreased by 200 yuan / ton to 3100 yuan / ton compared with last week; the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene decreased by 500 yuan / ton for three consecutive weeks. Due to the high level of port inventory, enterprises have greater pressure to ship. However, as the price continued to fall, Sinopec’s price was low, the downstream profitability improved, and the downstream buying interest rose slightly.

The external market fell sharply at the beginning of the week and rebounded later. On Friday (July 3), South Korea imported 422.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, a decrease of 2 US dollars / ton, or 0.47% compared with June 26; and that of East China was 424 US dollars / ton, up 3.5 US dollars / ton, or 0.83% higher than that of June 26.

Thanks to the improvement of economic data, oil prices stopped falling and rose this week. Compared with June 26, Brent was up $2.375 per barrel, or 5.83%, while WTI was up $2.11 per barrel, or 5.46%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 35.38%, and WTI decreased by 32.93%.

On the downstream side, as of July 5, the styrene price in Shandong was 5366.67 yuan / ton, down 83.33 yuan / ton or 1.53% compared with last week.

Cost side deep fall, aniline downstream reception enthusiasm decreased, in order to promote shipment, aniline price down this week. On July 5, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4100-4180 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4100-4300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The external plate appears to be warming, crude oil also showed an upward trend, to the domestic market guidance upward. Lower prices led to the rise of downstream purchasing enthusiasm, enterprises bargain hunting, far month prices driven rebound. But the port inventory is still high, pure benzene is still under pressure.

Benzene is expected to rebound next week, but the range is not large.

The domestic BDO market fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price was 8020 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price of domestic BDO market was 7880 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 1.75% during the week, 4.60% month on month, and 14.35% lower than the same period last year.

This week, the domestic BDO market was weak. There was no obvious fluctuation in the center of gravity during the negotiation between the supply and demand sides, and the market continued its deadlock pattern. With the restart of one plant and two Kaixiang units, the market operating rate has increased; however, some of the main factories are still shut down. Zhonghe and Tunhe plan to overhaul the whole line in July. The short-term support from the supply side is acceptable, and the supplier’s offer is stable. Although the start-up of downstream PBT increased, the consumption fluctuated little compared with the previous period. Moreover, the demand side mostly completes the stock preparation before the Dragon Boat Festival, mainly through contract negotiation, and a small number of spot goods enter the market for bargain hunting. At the same time, the factory announced that the settlement in June was 7700 yuan / ton in East China and 7800 yuan / ton in South China. In July, it was listed as 7900 yuan / ton in East China and 8000 yuan / ton in South China (acceptance and delivery). The hang up and settlement fell sharply, which was negative for operators. Empty multi factor hedging, the market short-term rise and fall dilemma, the industry continues to pay attention to the downstream demand changes.

In terms of devices, this week, Meike shut down the whole line from June 3 to June 30 for maintenance, and the restart time is still uncertain; Tianye phase I 30000 ton unit was shut down for maintenance on May 18, with uncertain restart time; two sets of devices in Kaixiang, Henan Province were in operation; Tunhe load was 50%, and the whole line was planned to be overhauled in July; Panjin Dalian was shut down for maintenance from June 10 to the end of July; Hecheng coal company restarted a set of equipment on June 29, with negative impact It’s 80%.

In terms of raw materials, methanol fluctuated in a narrow range this week, and the overall shipping atmosphere was general. Yulin Yankuang is expected to shut down for maintenance from July 6, with daily loss of more than 1000 tons of load reduction operation; 1.2 million tons of methanol plant in Guanghui, Xinjiang will be shut down as scheduled from July 1; jinchengtai and Guotai are still in the maintenance stage, supported by low supply, the upstream factories in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia keep the mentality of being reluctant to sell and mainly supply olefin downstream. Guanzhong area by Yingde and other low-cost source of goods impact, the week’s shipment is blocked, new single transaction is not much.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market is mainly in a slump. The supply of production enterprises is sufficient. Although the demand has increased, the overall weakness is hard to change. This week, the main performance for the downstream regional uneven arrival, Ningxia, Wuhai region supply is sufficient, Shanxi, Henan and Shaanxi region arrival volume is high, receiving price down.

Downstream: PBT: Kaixiang, Tunhe, Changshu Changchun, Wuxi Xingsheng load is about 50%; Meizhouwan and Shandong weijiao units are in normal operation; Meiyuan is planning to restart; Kanghui two lines are about 60%; Yizheng Chemical fiber is about 60%. In mid July, a 60000 ton production line is planned to be overhauled, with an estimated 20 days. PTMEG: the load of supporting PTMEG is about 60%. External mining plant: Xiaoxing load is about 60-70%; Sanlong full load operation.

At present, the market starts slightly improved, but there are still factory maintenance in the follow-up, and the supply side still has good support in the short term. Moreover, the inventory of the factory is controllable, and the attitude of supporting the market is continued, and the actual quantity is limited. There is no obvious increase in the demand of downstream industries, mainly to digest inventory, and a small amount of spot replenishment. Market news is relatively light, no obvious empty good support, supply and demand game continues. BDO and downstream analysts are expected to continue to pay attention to the changes in domestic market demand next week.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spandex market showed a slight decline trend in June. As of June 30, the average price of spandex 40d specifications was 31500 yuan / ton, down 1.25% compared with the beginning of the month, and 3.08% lower than that at the beginning of the month. At the same time, it is also at a low level in recent three years, down 19.44% from June 30, 2017.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 35000-36000 34000-35000 28500-29500

Shandong 36000-37000 34500-35500 29000-29500

Fujian 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-29500

Jiangsu 35000-36000 34000-35000 29500-31500

At present, more than 80% of the spandex industry has been started, sticking to the high position and abundant supply from manufacturers. The support performance of the cost side is general, the demand follow-up of the downstream terminal market is weak, and the overall market observation atmosphere is not reduced. At present, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 35000-36000 yuan / ton; for 30d spandex, it is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; for 40d spandex, it is 28500-29500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is discussed in detail.

Summary of production and sales trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Remarks on production capacity (10000 tons / year)

Shanxi 3D 5 parking, no restart plan

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical 9.2 unit load is not high

Henan Nenghua 6 parking

The load of Xinjiang Meike 5 unit is not high

The load of Tunhe 4.6 unit in Lanshan, Xinjiang is not high

In the raw material market, the domestic PTMEG market continued to be weak. In terms of price, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source was 14000-15000 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation was 13800-14500 yuan / ton. The factory’s willingness to make profit was limited, and the shipment was mainly discussed according to the bill. In terms of devices, the PTMEG industry started more than 50% of the start-up, and the start-up was cautious. There was no plan to restart the 50000 ton units in Shanxi sanwei and 60000 tons in Henan Nenghua. Sinopec Great Wall energy and chemical industry 92000 tons, Xinjiang Meike 50000 tons, Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe 46000 tons, the load is not high. In May 2020, the export volume was 430.91 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 72.31%, and the import volume was 3752.2 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.95%.

Statistics of import and export volume of PTMEG in May 2020

May export volume (ton) export volume month on month export volume year on year export amount (USD) export average price (USD / T) month on month export average price year on year export volume (ton) cumulative export volume year on year

430.91 -28.79% -72.31% 751171 1743.23 -10.20% -18.23% 4589.14 -9.24%

May import volume (ton) import volume month on month comparison import volume year on year import amount (US dollar) average import price (USD / ton) month on month import average price year on year import volume (ton) cumulative import volume year on year

3752.2 -14.33% -2.95% 8059196 2147.86 3.28% -2.07% 20805.5 -5.65%

In addition, the spot supply in the pure MDI market was not very loose in the first ten days of June. In addition, the short-term shutdown of individual devices and the delay of device restart stimulated the willingness of the factories to support the market, and the offer remained high. However, the downstream just needed to enter the market, and the trading center slowly moved up. Since the middle of the year, the improvement of the demand side is limited, and the trading volume is weak. Just in need of a proper amount of replenishment, the factory continues to discuss the shipment, and the center of gravity falls accordingly.

Market price change of pure MDI in June (unit: yuan / ton)

Region: June 1 – June 15 – June 29

South China 13500-14500 14000-14500 13700-14200

North China 13800-14500 14000-14500 13600-13900

East China 13500-14500 14000-14500 13500-13800

The downstream textile terminal market is characterized by obvious off-season characteristics, and mainly focuses on rigid demand procurement. In Zhejiang Province, the start-up level of Xiaoshao is generally stable, the level of round knitting machine and wrapping yarn market is 40-60%, the order of end customers in Zhuji, Yiwu is average, and the starting level of wrapping yarn market is 50-70%. In Jiangsu Province, Changshu circular knitting machine market started at a low level, with the overall starting level maintained at 30-40%, while Zhangjiagang’s wrapping yarn market started generally, with the overall starting level maintained at 50-60%; Fujian’s market started cautiously, with lace at 30-40% and warp knitting at about 50-60%; Guangdong’s orders were flat, and the round machine and warp knitting market started at 50-70%.

Business agency analysts believe that the market trend of spandex has been weak since the middle and late April of this year. At present, the production of spandex manufacturers is still at a high level. Although they are actively shipping, they are suffering from the downstream demand, the terminal customers are not cautious enough to take the goods, and the overall market just needs to transact business. At the same time, the performance of the cost side is generally, and there is no good support in the upstream and downstream. It is expected that the spandex market will remain mainly volatile and downward in July.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices rose slightly, which stimulated the price rise of aluminum fluoride. Some aluminum fluoride manufacturers raised the export price of aluminum fluoride by 1000 yuan / ton. According to business agency data, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on June 30 was 8833.33 yuan / ton, up 3.92% from June 21.

The spot supply of fluorite in China is a little tight, and some manufacturers have obvious intention to raise the price. Domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, hydrofluoric acid on-site device operation is stable, hydrofluoric acid market price rose slightly. However, some manufacturers reported that hydrofluoric acid still exists in the cracks, and some manufacturers still have losses.

However, some domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has not fully recovered since the end of March. Downstream demand did not improve, aluminum fluoride market continued to perform weak.

Aluminum fluoride analysts believe that: upstream fluorite, hydrofluoric acid market prices appear upward trend, aluminum fluoride prices or follow the upward trend.