Narrow price fluctuation in BDO Market

The domestic BDO market fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price was 8020 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price of domestic BDO market was 7880 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 1.75% during the week, 4.60% month on month, and 14.35% lower than the same period last year.


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This week, the domestic BDO market was weak. There was no obvious fluctuation in the center of gravity during the negotiation between the supply and demand sides, and the market continued its deadlock pattern. With the restart of one plant and two Kaixiang units, the market operating rate has increased; however, some of the main factories are still shut down. Zhonghe and Tunhe plan to overhaul the whole line in July. The short-term support from the supply side is acceptable, and the supplier’s offer is stable. Although the start-up of downstream PBT increased, the consumption fluctuated little compared with the previous period. Moreover, the demand side mostly completes the stock preparation before the Dragon Boat Festival, mainly through contract negotiation, and a small number of spot goods enter the market for bargain hunting. At the same time, the factory announced that the settlement in June was 7700 yuan / ton in East China and 7800 yuan / ton in South China. In July, it was listed as 7900 yuan / ton in East China and 8000 yuan / ton in South China (acceptance and delivery). The hang up and settlement fell sharply, which was negative for operators. Empty multi factor hedging, the market short-term rise and fall dilemma, the industry continues to pay attention to the downstream demand changes.


In terms of devices, this week, Meike shut down the whole line from June 3 to June 30 for maintenance, and the restart time is still uncertain; Tianye phase I 30000 ton unit was shut down for maintenance on May 18, with uncertain restart time; two sets of devices in Kaixiang, Henan Province were in operation; Tunhe load was 50%, and the whole line was planned to be overhauled in July; Panjin Dalian was shut down for maintenance from June 10 to the end of July; Hecheng coal company restarted a set of equipment on June 29, with negative impact It’s 80%.


In terms of raw materials, methanol fluctuated in a narrow range this week, and the overall shipping atmosphere was general. Yulin Yankuang is expected to shut down for maintenance from July 6, with daily loss of more than 1000 tons of load reduction operation; 1.2 million tons of methanol plant in Guanghui, Xinjiang will be shut down as scheduled from July 1; jinchengtai and Guotai are still in the maintenance stage, supported by low supply, the upstream factories in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia keep the mentality of being reluctant to sell and mainly supply olefin downstream. Guanzhong area by Yingde and other low-cost source of goods impact, the week’s shipment is blocked, new single transaction is not much.


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Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market is mainly in a slump. The supply of production enterprises is sufficient. Although the demand has increased, the overall weakness is hard to change. This week, the main performance for the downstream regional uneven arrival, Ningxia, Wuhai region supply is sufficient, Shanxi, Henan and Shaanxi region arrival volume is high, receiving price down.


Downstream: PBT: Kaixiang, Tunhe, Changshu Changchun, Wuxi Xingsheng load is about 50%; Meizhouwan and Shandong weijiao units are in normal operation; Meiyuan is planning to restart; Kanghui two lines are about 60%; Yizheng Chemical fiber is about 60%. In mid July, a 60000 ton production line is planned to be overhauled, with an estimated 20 days. PTMEG: the load of supporting PTMEG is about 60%. External mining plant: Xiaoxing load is about 60-70%; Sanlong full load operation.


At present, the market starts slightly improved, but there are still factory maintenance in the follow-up, and the supply side still has good support in the short term. Moreover, the inventory of the factory is controllable, and the attitude of supporting the market is continued, and the actual quantity is limited. There is no obvious increase in the demand of downstream industries, mainly to digest inventory, and a small amount of spot replenishment. Market news is relatively light, no obvious empty good support, supply and demand game continues. BDO and downstream analysts are expected to continue to pay attention to the changes in domestic market demand next week.

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