According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose in early July, the price of PR nd series rare earth rose, the price of heavy rare earth recovered, and the turning point of the domestic rare earth market has been found. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on July 1 was 494 points, up 6 points from yesterday, and down 50.60% from the peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), Compared with the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015, it has increased by 82.29%（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth prices picked up in early July, and the prices of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have increased to varying degrees recently, and the rare earth market has stopped falling and picked up. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and metallic praseodymium are gradually rising. As of July 2, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth is 480000 yuan / ton; The price of metal neodymium is 595000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 487500 yuan / ton; The price of PR nd alloy is 602500 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium is 700000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium oxide is 570000 yuan / ton, and all products have increased in varying degrees. Most of them have risen for 2 working days in a row. The turning point of domestic light rare earth market is now, and the market price is gradually rising.

The domestic rare earth market has stopped falling and recovered, the inflection point of supply and demand structure is coming, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is increasing, and the profit margin of rare earth industry chain is opening up. In the near future, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may increase steadily, the supply rigidity is optimized, and the new energy efficiency standards are implemented. The proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances and NdFeB penetration rate will continue to increase, and the demand side is expected to continue to rise. The sales of new energy vehicles are relatively normal, and the demand for rare earth is high. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 2.224 million units, a month on month decrease of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; From January to may, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 10.951 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%. Recently, the downstream demand has increased more than before, and the market price of light rare earth has turned to the rising channel.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium in China is getting warmer, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.385 million yuan / ton as of the 2nd; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.38 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.265 million yuan / ton. The domestic price of terbium series rises correspondingly. The domestic price of terbium oxide is 6.525 million yuan / ton, and that of metal terbium is 8.3 million yuan / ton. The transaction of domestic rare earth market has improved, the leading magnetic material factory has continued to expand, the demand for replenishment has made the domestic heavy rare earth market prices warmer and higher, coupled with Myanmar’s ban on exports, the global supply of rare earth is more concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the import source has decreased significantly, the market supply of heavy rare earth on the floor is general, the recent downstream procurement is active, and the market price trend has stopped falling and warmed up.

Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the overall demand of rare earth products is fair, the downstream demand has increased recently, the phenomenon of replenishment is frequent, and the price of domestic rare earth market has risen.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled, the national policy will be favorable, and the domestic price of rare earth will rise.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, and the continuous demand, coupled with the normal start of domestic rare earth supply, the recent on-site transactions have increased, and the purchase is active. Business analyst Chen Ling expects that the market price of rare earth will maintain a rising trend in the future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the large list of business agencies, the domestic PA6 market market adjustment and operation are mainly in June, and spot prices are adjusted narrowly. As of June 30, the main offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongwei 2.75-2.85 was about 15000 yuan / ton, up 2.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a rise of 23.29% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of caprolactam in the upstream, the trend of June was adjusted slightly. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil was stronger, but the benzene external market continued to decline, and the peripheral news was empty. In addition, styrene continued to decline, dragging the center of gravity of pure benzene. In the middle of the middle, the inventory of pure benzene port was low, and the domestic pure benzene price continued to rise, and then the fluctuation and consolidation, and lidocarbonamide stabilized. In the second ten days, the supply of pure benzene decreased continuously and the price was stronger. In addition, some caprolactam enterprises have been overhauled and the supply is tightened. It is expected that caprolactam may continue to rise in the short term.

The raw material caprolactam is narrow and vibrated, and it turns warm at the end of the month. The cost side support of PA6 is still acceptable. The spot market of PA6 in the first ten days was also stable, and the profit of PA6 polymerization enterprises in the next half of the month improved limited. At present, the traditional off-season impact of rubber and plastic industry is still in progress. Downstream factories tend to take goods only, and follow up is slow. The transaction on the site is weak, and the actual delivery and investment are mostly small orders. However, there are still some enterprises in the industry to maintain production lines, and the supply side is good for conventional spinning and slicing products. In addition, the strength of caprolactam at the end of the month, the spot price of PA6 at the end of the month rose.

3、 Post market forecast:

Analysts from business society think: the caprolactam market in the upper reaches of PA6 in June is generally stable and has been strong at the end of the month. PA6 cost side support is acceptable. Affected by off-season, the end-user consumption is low, downstream enterprises just need to buy mainly, the on-site investment is poor, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 will rise in the short term or will be affected by the strong upstream.

Domestic cobalt price rises again

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the cobalt Market in June changed from the weak trend in the early stage, and the cobalt price has been rising continuously since the middle of June. As of June 30, the cobalt price was 365000 yuan / ton, up 6.52% from 342666.66 yuan / ton on June 17. In June, the price of cobalt rose again, whether the cobalt market can usher in another outbreak.

Cobalt market is good and stimulating

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, the domestic mobile phone production in May 2021 was 132.533 million, up 16.9% year on year; In the past 21 years, the domestic mobile phone production rose year-on-year, with an increase of more than 10% in the past 21 years.

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in May, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 217000, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5 times and 1.6 times respectively, continuing to refresh the historical record of the month. The great increase of new energy vehicle production and sales is good for the cobalt market, and the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise in the future.

According to the statistics of Gaishi automobile, in May, the global new energy vehicle market received good news and continued to recover. The monthly sales of new energy vehicles in all countries showed a three digit year-on-year growth, led by the growth rate of over 600% in the UK; Many countries have reopened, and business confidence has boosted economic recovery. Some government subsidies for electric vehicles and increased investment in crossover vehicles have injected a “booster” into the new energy market. The global new energy vehicle market has a bright future, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rise in the future.

Cobalt Market Risk news

It can be seen from the statistical data released by China Academy of information technology that in May 2021, the domestic market mobile phone shipment volume was 22.968 million, a year-on-year decrease of 32.0%. From January to may, the total domestic market mobile phone shipment volume was 148 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. From the data of the first five months of 2021, the domestic mobile phone market still maintained rapid growth, showing an overall upward trend. However, in April and may 2021, the mobile phone shipment decreased year-on-year, the upward trend of the mobile phone market slowed down, and the upward momentum of the cobalt Market weakened.

According to the data released by the State Administration of market supervision and administration, up to now, Jiangnan motor has recalled some zhongtaiyun 100s electric vehicles, Tesla motor (Beijing) and Tesla motor (Shanghai) have recalled some imported and domestic model 3 and domestic model y electric vehicles, and Zhengzhou Daily has recalled some Shuaike pure electric vehicles, In 2021, the enterprises recalled 1.2838 million defective new energy vehicles, accounting for 22.13% of the total number of new energy vehicles. The recall of new energy vehicles with multi brand, multi quantity and high proportion will make consumers have doubts about the quality of new energy vehicles, or affect the sales of new energy vehicles in the future.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that with the increase of mobile phone production, the global and domestic markets of new energy vehicles have risen sharply, and the demand for cobalt market has risen, and the cobalt market is more favorable. However, in April and may, the shipment volume of mobile phone market decreased year-on-year, the demand for cobalt in mobile phone market declined, the large-scale recall of new energy vehicles increased consumers’ worry about the quality of new energy vehicles, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the future may not be as expected. Generally speaking, the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise in the future, but the overall rise may not be as expected. The support for the rise of cobalt market is insufficient, and the power for the continuous rise of cobalt price is limited. It is expected that the cobalt price will not break the 400000 yuan mark in the future.

On the 29th, the mainstream quotation range of tin ingots in domestic spot tin market was 211000-214000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 212500 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On Monday night, the LME non-ferrous metal market fluctuated, with mixed ups and downs. In the morning, the trading trend of Shanghai tin was mainly high oscillation and consolidation. As of the closing of the 29th, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai tin 2108 was 210800 yuan / ton, up 0.12%.

On the 29th, the spot market followed the early price rise of the futures market, tin price was still at an all-time high, fear of high sentiment appeared in the lower reaches, market trading was slightly light, and rigid demand procurement was maintained. In terms of demand, the recent improvement of the international economy has increased the demand for solder in the semiconductor and electronic industries, and the tin price is supported by a certain demand. On the supply side, affected by Myanmar, the import volume in June is expected to remain sluggish, and the supply of ore end is still tight. In terms of domestic tin ingots, the current power restriction policy has not been completely lifted, the output is expected to be tight, and the overall supply of the market is relatively small.

In the future, the tight supply will still support the high tin ingot price, and it is expected that the tin price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was stable. The average price of cryolite in Henan at the weekend was 6425 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the end of last week, with a year-on-year increase of 14.73%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of cryolite was stable temporarily. The cryolite plants of domestic manufacturers were running normally and started smoothly. As of 25th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong was 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was 6300-6800 yuan / ton. The price of cryolite in Shandong was stable temporarily. At present, the price of cryolite is on the high side, the market supply is tight, and the enterprises reflect that the production capacity is low and the raw materials are tight, so there is no possibility of reducing the price of cryolite in the short term. The specific trend is to wait and see the upstream and downstream situation.

In terms of electrolytic aluminum, the price trend went up this week, with an increase of 2.18% in the week. The domestic aluminum social inventory was relatively low. The vigorous development of photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other industries promoted the growth of aluminum demand. The downstream demand side consumption was strong, the aluminum social inventory continued to decline, the aluminum spot market went out obviously, and the later aluminum market trend may continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic manufacturers of cryolite have a stable start-up, and the quotation of enterprises is relatively high. Because the downstream demand is stable and the traffic and investment are stable, most manufacturers have a wait-and-see mentality, and the quotation of cryolite is stable in the short term. It is expected that the cryolite market will wait-and-see in the later period, and pay more attention to the downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on June 25, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14250 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a month on month decrease of 2.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.84%. On June 24, the salicylic acid commodity index was 84.82, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest point of 100.60 in the cycle (2011-09-19), it decreased by 15.69%, and increased by 18.75% compared with the lowest point of 71.43 on March 29, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

This week, the salicylic acid market continued to be weak and stable, the enterprise quotation remained basically unchanged, the raw material phenol was frozen in finishing, the cost support was acceptable, and the carrier had no intention to lower the price. Due to the changes in the international situation, the export has weakened, the domestic market is relatively stable, the delivery of salicylic acid downstream products has slightly weakened, but the impact is limited, and the enterprises are under little pressure to sell with production. As of June 25, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14250 yuan / ton. The quotation of industrial grade enterprises was mostly in the range of 13000-15500 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade enterprises was mostly in the range of 23000-26000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade enterprises was mostly in the range of 17200-20000 yuan / ton. There was little change in salicylic acid of each grade.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phenol market was in a volatile operation, with a slight stalemate in the market, little change in the fundamentals, weak negotiation atmosphere in the market, low intention of goods holders, and low price stability. However, the terminal factory’s replenishment mood was not good, the gas buying was not high, and just needed to follow up. The trading was flat. The business community expected the domestic phenol Market to be weak.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency think: at present, the demand has weakened, the intention of raw material phenol is not strong, the cost support is still in, salicylic acid enterprises produce and sell with little pressure on shipment, and it is expected that the salicylic acid market will continue to be stable in the short term.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4400.00 yuan / ton on June 14 to 4683.33 yuan / ton on June 18, up 283.33 yuan / ton, or 6.44%, up 76.56% over the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market rose this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 122.71 on June 18.

The upstream support is better, and the downstream purchase intention is strengthened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 4700 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide offered by Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend is 4650 yuan / ton, which is 350 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping this weekend calcium carbide offer for 4700 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer increased by 300 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, in the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of LAN Tan rose slightly this week. The quotation of Xiaoliao this weekend is 1200 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; At the end of this week, Sinochem quoted 1200 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from the beginning of this week; Dali’s quotation this weekend is 1300 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. The price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices fell slightly this week. This week’s PVC quotation fell from 9125.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9062.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.68%, up 43.00% year on year. Although the price of PVC dropped slightly this week, the market situation was good. The maintenance of PVC was completed, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream calcium carbide increased. On the whole, this week’s PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Lower demand weakened, the market fell slightly concussion

In late June, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. But downstream demand weakened, PVC market began to decline slightly. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall slightly in late June.

This week (6.15-18), the domestic market of ethyl acetate was stable. After the rising market of ethyl acetate in the first two weeks of June, the current market has stabilized, and the price is hovering at a high level. According to the monitoring of the business association, this week’s rise and fall was 0, and most of the quotations of major domestic manufacturers remained stable. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market returned to rationality, the downstream procurement slowed down, and the superimposed supply gradually returned to stability. Therefore, the price of ethyl acetate stopped rising and stabilized. At present, the price is between 9700-9800 yuan / ton.

First of all, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, the price of acetic acid is still strong. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid has risen slightly since the festival, with an increase of 0.79% this week (6.15-18) (as shown in the figure below). On the one hand, the operation rate of acetic acid is low, the supply of acetic acid is reduced due to the maintenance of the plant, which continuously supports the price. However, the high price of acetic acid brings pressure on the downstream ethyl acetate. In the later stage, it can not be ruled out that under the effect of the slowdown of purchasing demand, acetic acid has a callback.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, some maintenance devices resumed operation after the festival. At present, the market supply is relatively stable. Due to the high price of upstream acetic acid, the downstream ethyl acetate manufacturers generally support the price to maintain the profit margin. However, the ex factory price stopped rising this week, and the enterprise has a trend of gradually accumulating stock.

From the perspective of supply and demand of ethyl acetate, the terminal demand entered the traditional off-season, and the market demand continued to be weak. After a previous round of price increase, the current price is still high. The downstream consumers are rational and resistant to the high price of ethyl acetate, and the number of households is affected to a certain extent, which makes the market more vulnerable.

In the future, ethyl acetate analysts from business clubs believe that ethyl acetate is currently facing the dual dilemma of high cost and low demand, with weak price rise. However, affected by weak demand, the market has a certain risk of callback, and the price may fall from a high level in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda has been mainly adjusted recently. At the beginning of the week, the average market price is 1576.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average market price is 1586.67 yuan / ton, up 0.63%. On June 18, the commodity index of sodium bicarbonate was 105.31, which was the same as yesterday, down 13.45% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.30% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate is stable for the time being, and the shipment in the downstream market is acceptable. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan Province is about 1550-1650 yuan, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1550-1650 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

In terms of raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, soda ash in North China has been in stable operation temporarily. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. The downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly consolidated. Soda ash in East China is in stable operation for the time being. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton, and the downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly consolidated.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food mainly purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand, and the price of sodium bicarbonate has been consolidated recently. Business analysts believe that: domestic soda price consolidation operation. The overall trading atmosphere of soda ash is acceptable, and the enterprises are mainly active in shipping. The strong price of glass has a favorable support for soda, but soda is still mainly purchased on demand. In the downstream, medicine, textile and food mainly purchase baking soda on demand. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda may still maintain a narrow consolidation trend in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic POM market was flat in the first half of June, and the spot prices of various brands were stable. As of June 16, the average offer price of the POM injection molding sample enterprises in the business community was about 15900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

POM upstream formaldehyde, Shandong formaldehyde market fell in the first half of June, market trading atmosphere is relatively light, the transaction situation is poor. Methanol raw material market down, the overall trading atmosphere in general. Poor support for formaldehyde. At present, the north gradually enters the busy farming season, the operation rate of the downstream plate yard gradually declines, the demand for formaldehyde weakens, the purchasing enthusiasm declines, the atmosphere of formaldehyde trading market is light, the shipment is not smooth, and the market center moves down. Business community chemical branch formaldehyde analysts expect that the recent Shandong formaldehyde prices or a small decline.

Upstream prices fell in the first half of the month, and POM cost side support weakened. Recently, the domestic POM market accepted the stalemate at the end of May, and the wait-and-see atmosphere spread. At present, it is the off-season of the rubber and plastic industry, and the consumption of downstream factories is insufficient, so it is difficult to pull up the demand for just entering the market. Domestic POM spot price range is still not low, Tianye Chemical M90 reference price is about 15700 yuan / ton, real single negotiation. Yuntianhua M90 ex factory reference price quoted 16900 yuan / ton, firm offer negotiation. The POM unit of Shenhua Ningshan coal works normally. The reference price of mc90 is about 15100 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. However, the supply side of the market is still good, and the domestic supply is still tight. Coupled with the limited recovery of the industry’s operating rate, the spot price may continue to be deadlocked.

Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency believe that the domestic POM market is stable in the first half of June. Formaldehyde and methanol in the upstream have dropped, and the cost support of POM has been weakened. The tight market supply pattern remains unchanged, and the supply side is good for the market. In the off-season, the demand of downstream enterprises is short, and the orders are generally small. In addition, under the pressure of high cost, profits are compressed, and the terminal is in conflict with the high price of goods. The merchants have a wait-and-see mentality, and the willingness to support the price still exists. In the field of long and short game, tangled in the balanced operation. POM market is expected to remain stable in the near future.