Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan continued to be stable this week. On January 13, the average market price in Henan was 7950 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the price remained unchanged, and remained unchanged from the previous month.

quotations analysis

This week, the cryolite market was at a high level. The enterprise’s quotation was firm, the upstream construction was low, the supply of goods was tight, the raw material support was strong, and the fuel costs of coal, natural gas and other fuels were superimposed. The production cost of cryolite enterprises was high, the enterprise’s inventory was not low, and the downstream market purchase was followed up as needed. The cryolite enterprise’s shipment was OK, and the cryolite market was operating at a stable price. As of January 13, the ex-factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 7900-8600 yuan/ton, The ex-factory price of cryolite in Henan is 7500-9300 yuan/ton.

The price of fluorite in the upstream has a stable trend. As of January 13, the average market price is about 3175 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The operating rate at the supply side has declined. The mining plant is still under pressure due to safety and environmental protection requirements. The fluorite mine is under-started, but the demand at the downstream side is low. As the annual holiday approaches, the on-site trading has weakened. The fluorite manufacturer maintains the price of the early order, and the trend is temporarily stable.

The downstream aluminum market rose sharply this week. The aluminum price was around 18483.33 yuan/ton on January 13, up 4.39% from 17706.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the enthusiasm of preparing goods before the festival in the downstream increased, the demand follow-up was strong, the atmosphere of intra-field trading was good, and the aluminum price was strong and upward.

Aftermarket forecast

At present, the supply and demand performance of cryolite market is relatively balanced, the intention of downstream stock preparation is weak before the festival, the purchase in the market continues to follow up as needed, the market trading atmosphere is fair, the manufacturers are wait-and-see, the price is stable, the market lacks information guidance, and the short-term cryolite market is expected to remain high and stable.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price trend of TDI in East China rose slightly in the first ten days of January. On January 10, the average market price in East China was 19066.67 yuan/ton, up 1.42% compared with the price of 18800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and up 11.72% month-on-month.

In the first ten days, the TDI market was waiting and sorting out, and the downstream demand continued to be weak. Just after entering the market, the inquiry was needed, and the follow-up was slow. The supply side of the market was filled slowly, and the supplier’s mentality was firm. The trade market offer was high, and the low price offer on the market was few. After the New Year’s Day, the traders’ offer moved up slightly. As of the 10th day, the price range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China was around 18700-18800 yuan/ton, and the price range of Shanghai goods was 19000-19200 yuan/ton, It is mainly based on negotiation.

The upstream toluene market is stronger and the price trend has risen sharply. As of January 10, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6460 yuan/ton, up 9.12% from 5920 yuan/ton at the beginning of January. The crude oil price fell first and then rose, the raw material support was weak, the downstream warehouse was built in advance for stock, the purchasing enthusiasm increased, the demand performance was good, and the focus of the toluene market was up.

According to the aftermarket analysis, TDI statisticians of the business agency believe that the current market news is quiet, the TDI spot filling is slow, the supplier support continues to be good, the trade market offer is firm, the downstream or replenishment operation is close to the Spring Festival holiday, and the supplier market occupies the leading position. In the short term, the TDI market is high and firm, and the specific follow-up of the downstream is concerned.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis of this week

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price of the domestic market was 21700 yuan/ton by the end of 2009, unchanged from last week. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the market action was slow, and most of the magnesium plants did not guarantee the price to maintain the previous market. Near Friday, the downstream centralized procurement was advanced before the Spring Festival, and the prices of some factories were tentatively raised slightly.

Factory

The price of magnesium ingot is at a low level, resulting in the production falling into a state of upside down and loss, and the factory is not willing to let the price down. In addition, due to the weak transaction in the early stage of the market, some magnesium plants reduced production to cope with it, resulting in a reduction in the supply of low-cost goods in the market.

Demand

The overall turnover of the magnesium market is weak, and the purchase is mainly on demand. Considering that the Spring Festival is approaching, some magnesium powder and magnesium alloy enterprises are starting to stock and purchase, and the purchase demand in the second half of this week is released ahead of schedule, which will support the magnesium price. Focus on the downstream procurement demand before the festival according to the situation. Overseas demand was flat, and under the influence of exchange rate, overseas traders were not willing to accept orders.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 8167.44 yuan/ton, and the market demand of ferrosilicon is weak. It is expected that the home price will be weak and stable in the short term. The price of blue charcoal is stable and strong, the inventory is low, the supply is gradually tight, and the cost support of blue charcoal is strong.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the factory is reluctant to sell at a high price, the demand is supported by stock preparation, and the support of raw material cost is strengthened. It is expected that the price of short-term magnesium will rise steadily.

441 # silicon price trend

As the Spring Festival approaches, the actual trading days of the metal silicon market decrease day by day, and the downstream enterprises take leave in advance, so the demand support is still insufficient. Although futures have recovered, spot prices continue to weaken. As of January 9, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 18780 yuan/ton, according to the monitoring of the Business Society.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on September 9 is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 18800-18900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18850 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 18600-18700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 18400-18600 yuan/ton, with an average of 18500 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 18400-18600 yuan/ton, with an average of 18500 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 19300-19500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19400 yuan/ton.

Influential factors of falling price of metal silicon

Supply:

The overall number of silicon metal furnaces this week is basically stable, with an increase of 1 compared with last week. It is understood that the total number of silicon metal furnaces is 709 at present. As of January 6, the silicon metal furnace opening rate is about 50.21%, 143 in Xinjiang, 43 in Sichuan and 59 in Yunnan. With the rise of power cost in dry season, the operating rate in Sichuan-Yunnan region continues to decline. Xinjiang’s output increased and supply was relatively loose.

Demand:

The mainstream price of polysilicon is in the range of 180-20000 yuan/ton. At present, the operating rate of enterprises’ devices remains high, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, which causes the price of polysilicon to fall sharply. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are affected by the poor delivery and overstock of inventory, and the operating rate is reduced to below 80%, and the digestion of raw metal silicon inventory is slowed; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 18700 yuan/ton. The aluminum enterprises had holidays in succession, and the weekly operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry continued to decline; The organosilicon DMC market rose slightly, with the quotation of 16580 yuan/ton as reference. The trading atmosphere in the organosilicon DMC market was tepid, and the downstream demand was generally boosted. Some organosilicon DMC factories may still have some supply pressure, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the main reason for the weak decline of metal silicon is that the terminal demand is relatively weak, and under the stable supply and output in Xinjiang, the inventory pressure is large. Due to the shortage of funds at the end of the year, it is not excluded that the silicon factory will ship at a loss. It is expected that the price of metal silicon will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

Price trend

At the beginning of January, the domestic PA66 market trend was stagnating. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA66 was 21750 yuan/ton on January 6, which was the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

At the beginning of this month, the market of PA66 was stable, and the spot price ran sideways. In terms of supply, the current overall load of PA66 industry in China is about 65%, which is also stable. The enterprise has undertaken the trend of stock removal in the early stage, and the inventory pressure is fair, while the supply is relatively abundant. On the upstream side, hexamethylene diamine runs smoothly. Adiponitrile rose at the beginning of the month, boosted by the cost side. In addition to the early low load operation, the recent cost support for PA66 is fair. The weak demand situation is hard to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up on the purchase of goods. Enterprises have entered the holidays one after another. The impact of the pre holiday stock surge has been diluted. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high priced goods, and are also relatively cautious about price cuts. The flow of goods is average.

Future market forecast

At the beginning of January, the spot price of PA66 stabilized. The raw material market rose, and the support for the cost side of PA66 gradually improved. The load of PA66 enterprises was stable, the ex factory price was sideways, and the overall inventory position was low. The demand side just needs to follow up the goods slowly, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to run sideways in the short term.

The price of ethylene oxide moves down after coming back on New Year’s Day

According to the data of the business cooperative, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic spot market on January 4, 2023 was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday, and 500 yuan/ton lower than the average price of 6800 yuan/ton in the spot market before New Year’s Day.

At present, the listing price of ethylene oxide in all regions in China has been lowered by 300-500 yuan/ton compared with that before New Year’s Day. The factory listing price of mainstream markets in all regions is as follows:

The external implementation of ethylene oxide market in East China is 6300 yuan/ton; Ethylene oxide market in South China is 6300 yuan/ton; The listing price of ethylene oxide market in central China is 6300 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6300 yuan/ton, and that of some manufacturers in Northeast China is 6300 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

On the whole, weak downstream demand is the main reason for the weak and stable price of ethylene oxide.

Fundamentals Overview

On the supply side, ethylene oxide production capacity is relatively stable, the price of raw ethylene changes little, and support is limited. On the demand side, the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer is facing the long holiday of the Spring Festival. The operating rate of the terminal real estate is under pressure. The construction conditions of the terminal terminal buildings are insufficient, and the demand is expected to weaken significantly. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has declined, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide is weak. In the early stage, when the fundamentals of ethylene oxide were weak, the ethylene oxide manufacturers and traders holding the goods had been holding prices for a long time. After New Year’s Day, the willingness to reduce prices and ship goods was enhanced. As the Spring Festival approached, the willingness to realize increased.

Future market forecast

The price of raw ethylene is relatively stable, the terminal demand is weak, and the downstream demand is restrained. The market of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the main downstream is facing the Spring Festival holiday. The operating rate of the terminal real estate is under downward pressure, and the demand for ethylene oxide is expected to weaken. In the early stage, the price of ethylene oxide has been trading sideways for a long time, and the supply and demand fundamentals have not improved. When we come back after the New Year’s Day, it is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term after moving down.

In December 2022, the nylon filament market continued to be weak and the price fell. The supply of goods in the market remained sufficient and stable, the spot supply of raw material caprolactam was sufficient, the downstream demand was further cooled, and the weakness of nylon chips was followed up. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86D/24F)

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of nylon filament fell in December. As of December 31, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 16980 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.64%; Nylon POY (superior product; 86D/24F) quoted 14725 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton compared with the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.81%; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 17750 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.34%.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Raw material caprolactam: according to the data of the business association, the domestic caprolactam was consolidated after falling in December, with the decline concentrated in the first ten days. On December 1, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 12200 yuan/ton, and on December 30, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11066 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 1134 yuan/ton, or 9.30%. Some caprolactam manufacturers have overhauled their devices, and some manufacturers have restarted their devices. The supply side has not changed much. The terminal demand is weak, a small amount of raw materials are purchased, and there are few deals on the market. In the case of weak supply and demand, caprolactam market is weak.

Raw material PA6: In December, the domestic PA6 market trend was negative, and the spot price gradually fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 13333.33 yuan/ton on December 30, up or down by – 4.31% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Supply and demand

At present, nylon yarn starts stably, 70% of the total starts are on the high side, the on-site supply is sufficient, the inventory is high, and the market is dominated by many main forces to digest the inventory. On the whole, the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend this month. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

The upstream raw materials are weak and low, and the supply of goods in the market remains stable. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the downstream demand will further weaken, and the overall demand for textile terminals will show a decreasing trend. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic asphalt market fell first and then rose in December, which generally rose. From December 1 to 29, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province rose from 3573 yuan/ton to 3691 yuan/ton, up 3.28%, and the price rose 17.28% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic asphalt market declined significantly, mainly due to the demand side. The weather gradually turned cold, and pavement construction was limited in some areas, so the demand for asphalt was weakened. Specifically, on the macro level, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell in the same period, causing the spread of negative sentiment throughout the industry chain. Although there are signs of recovery recently, it has little impact on the current asphalt market. In the first ten days of this month, the asphalt price continued to decline, mainly due to the demand side. Affected by weather factors, downstream terminal demand continues to be sluggish. In the middle of this month, the price of asphalt market stopped falling and rising, mainly due to the rebound of crude oil price, the implementation of asphalt winter storage policy, the emergence of bottom price, and the release of some expediting and stock demand, which led to the price rise. In the last ten days of this month, the price of asphalt market continued to rise in a narrow range, mainly due to the rise of crude oil, the strengthening of cost support, and the obvious destocking of some refineries, which led to the tight spot resources, driving the price up.

In terms of cost, on December 29, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil of the business community was $79.53 per barrel, down – 1.27% compared with December 1 ($80.55 per barrel). Since December, oil prices have continued to fall, recording a decline in six trading days. WTI and Brent crude oil both fell by about $10. The results of the OPEC meeting of oil producing countries were released at the beginning of this month, which failed to further reduce production; As well as the EU’s oil price limit policy for Russian seaborne oil has been implemented, but in the short term, it is virtually non-existent. The oil price fell to the annual low against the background of demand depression at the far end. It has completely returned to the level before the Russian Ukrainian conflict. The domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was affected by the market shock and fell.

In terms of supply, the decrease in supply is mainly due to the reduction of production in some places in North China and the intermittent shutdown of asphalt production by Yunnan Petrochemical in Southwest China.

On the demand side, there is a demand for centralized goods preparation in northwest and south China, while refineries in other regions mainly implement contracts.

It is predicted that the rise of international crude oil will support the sentiment of asphalt market to some extent. Influenced by a new round of cold air factors, the temperature drop in the northern region is obvious, and the demand has slowed down. At present, most of the demand is small purchase and warehousing, while the southern region still has a certain demand for acceleration. The asphalt analysts of the business association predict that the domestic asphalt market may rise in a narrow range in the short term.

Zinc price fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 23894 yuan/ton as of December 26, down 2.70% from 24556 yuan/ton on December 18. Zinc supply is expected to increase and demand is less than expected. This week, zinc prices fell in shock.

European gas price ceiling is set, and zinc smelting output is expected to increase

All EU countries agreed that the price ceiling of natural gas is set at 180 euros/megawatt hour, which is far lower than the price proposed by the EU last month. Natural gas prices fell, zinc smelting costs fell, zinc smelting output is expected to increase, and European zinc supply is expected to increase.

Demand is less than expected

The domestic prevention and control measures for zinc have changed, but the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected. The output of domestic factories has slowed down, retail sales continue to decline, and the supply and demand of zinc market have not met expectations. The impact of the epidemic has affected some employment. Most enterprises plan to take holidays in advance. The off-season effect may be greater than in previous years, and the downward pressure on zinc prices has increased.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business association, the cost of zinc smelting in Europe has decreased, the supply of zinc is expected to increase, while the recovery of the domestic market is less than expected, and the demand of zinc is less than expected. In general, the expected increase in zinc supply and demand is less than expected, and the zinc price is expected to fall slightly in the future.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3766.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 1.77%. A year-on-year decrease of 24.49%. On December 18, the carbide commodity index was 96.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.32% from the highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 74.70% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is good

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market was consolidated at a high level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal this weekend is about 1450-1800 yuan/ton, with average cost support. The PVC market price this week rose from 6025.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6116.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.52%. A year-on-year drop of 28.38%. The PVC market price rose slightly. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased. Downstream PVC market had a positive impact on calcium carbide price.

Calcium carbide may rise in the market after shocks

In late December, calcium carbide market rose mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material semicarbon was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The PVC market in the downstream rose in a narrow range, and the demand in the downstream increased. In late December, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may rise in a narrow range.