Recently (1.8-1.16), the price of isooctyl acrylate has remained stable. According to data from Business Society, as of January 16th, the average price of isooctyl acrylate in East China was 13425 yuan/ton, and the prices in various regions are as follows:

The reference price for the East China market is 14500 yuan/ton; The reference price for the North China market is 14600 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the South China market is 14700 yuan/ton;

In terms of isooctyl acrylate, although there is still a slight increase in the price of raw material octanol, after the price of isooctyl acrylate rose to a high level in the early stage, high priced shipments were hindered, market inquiries and trading volume weakened, leading to a certain price decline.

The downstream lotion, tape master roll and other industries of isooctyl acrylate give priority to consuming their own inventory. The overall purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the overall performance of the end consumer end is flat. Although there is a possibility of stocking up before the festival in the future, the downstream expectation is cautious, which may affect the stocking rhythm of the market.

According to an analyst at Business Society, the raw material side is currently showing a slight weak performance, which lacks further driving force for the isooctyl acrylate market in the short term. However, demand constraints still constrain the market from achieving sustained improvement. It is expected that the market for isooctyl acrylate will fluctuate narrowly in the near future.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have fallen this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3000 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.55%, and the weekend price fell by 22.08% year-on-year. On January 15th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 78.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 41.65% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have fallen this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal for intermediate materials was around 1110 yuan/ton, with prices consolidating at a low level and cost support average. The PVC market price has slightly declined this week, dropping from 5572 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.39%. Weekend prices fell 10.72% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late January, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and mainly decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at low levels, and cost support is average. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this week was 3543 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this week was 3510 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.94%.

The domestic potassium sulfate market is affected by the price of raw material potassium chloride, and the price continues to decline, with a decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton. The production of resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers is normal, and most of the previous orders are being executed gradually. Currently, the market price of 52% potassium powder in Guotou Luo is mostly between 3600-3700 yuan/ton, and the market price of 50% potassium powder in Qinghai is mostly between 3450-3500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction may vary slightly in different regions.

The overall operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer factories has been continuously declining recently, especially for small and medium-sized compound fertilizer factories who have stated that they have no plans to resume production before the year, and the operating rate of some large compound fertilizer factories is also weakening. Therefore, the demand for raw materials is not sufficient, and procurement is limited.

Prediction: The supply-demand contradiction in the domestic potassium fertilizer market is more prominent, and there is a lack of positive support in the short term. It is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices will be mainly weak and declining in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash in 2023 is in a “W” shape. At the beginning of the year, the average market price of soda ash was 2648 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the price of soda ash was 2790 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.36%.

Take a look at the comparison chart of soda ash prices: The annual price comparison chart of Business Society shows that the price of soda ash in 2023 is at a relatively low price level. Can soda ash operate strongly in 2024?

Firstly, let’s take a look at the specific price trend of pure alkali in 2023. Prices increased from January to mid March, decreased from the end of March to the end of May, increased from early June to mid to late September, decreased from the end of September to late October, increased from early November to mid December, and stabilized after mid December.

Price increase stage from January to mid March: After the Spring Festival, the supply of soda ash is relatively stable, and downstream glass is mostly purchased according to demand, resulting in a relatively balanced supply and demand of soda ash. From the end of March to the end of May, prices fell. From the supply side, data shows that the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased from 250000 tons to 520000 tons, and the overall operating rate of soda ash is around 90%. There are currently no new maintenance plans, and the supply of soda ash has increased. The downstream demand for glass is average, and the price of soda ash has decreased. From early June to mid to late September, prices increased, while the price of soda ash increased. Soda ash enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and the maintenance plan exceeds expectations. The supply of soda ash is slightly tight, and upstream soda ash manufacturers have the initiative. Prices have continued to rise, while downstream companies can only accept significant price increases. From the end of September to the end of October, prices fell, and the price of soda ash operated weakly. Mainly due to the recovery of the soda ash plant and the restoration of supply. Moreover, downstream imports of soda ash have increased, resulting in a decrease in soda ash prices. From early November to mid December, prices rose, and the price of soda ash remained strong. Recently, the production of soda ash has remained at around 84%, and the amount of soda ash has decreased in the short term. Soda ash manufacturers have continued to raise prices. After mid December, prices have stabilized, and data shows that there were around 350000 tons of pure alkali inventory during the week, and downstream purchases were made on demand.

What is the trend of pure alkali in 2024, despite the ups and downs in 2023?

From a supply perspective, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of soda ash from January to November 2023 was 29.575 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The expected annual production is around 32.4 million tons, an increase of about 11% compared to 2022. The production in 2024 is expected to reach over 36 million tons according to the plan, with an increase of over 3.5 million tons. Firstly, all three lines of Yuanxing Energy Phase I and Jinshan Phase V will be completed, while the ignition and commissioning of the fourth line will be postponed until 2024. Lianyungang Alkali Industry is expected to start production with 1.2 million tons in the second half of 2024. It is expected that the new production capacity will be limited in 2024, but the new production will be relatively large.

In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of soda ash in 2023 was at a low level in previous years, with an extremely low inventory of less than 500000 tons throughout the year. Especially during the maintenance season from August to September, the lowest inventory reached a historical low of around 130000 yuan. From the inventory, it can be seen that there was no serious overcapacity in 2023 for soda ash, but rather a shortage of supply. With the release of production capacity, it is expected that the total inventory of soda ash will exceed 3 million to 4 million tons in 2024, indicating significant supply pressure.

In terms of imports and exports: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative import volume from January to November 2023 was 617500 tons, an increase of 505100 tons compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 449.38%; The cumulative export volume from January to November 2023 was 1.4036 million tons, a decrease of 462300 tons or 24.78% compared to the same period last year. In 2023, the import volume of domestic soda ash was relatively small, while the export volume increased significantly, mainly due to the rising price difference between domestic and foreign markets. From the current price difference between domestic and foreign markets, there is still an expectation of imports for domestic clothing, as the price of caustic soda has decreased and the downward pressure on spot prices has increased. In 2024, there may be less imports of caustic soda and more exports.

In terms of demand: In 2023, the demand for soda ash will maintain a rapid growth, mainly affected by the increase in photovoltaic glass production. Although the real estate industry is in a downturn overall, under policy guidance, the completed area from January to November increased by 17.9% year-on-year. Perhaps the growth rate of domestic housing completed area in 2024 may turn negative. However, in the case of guaranteed delivery in the real estate market in 2024, glass has a rigid demand for soda ash, and the possibility of reducing the quantity of float glass is unlikely.

Comprehensive prediction: Business Society analysts believe that the supply side will maintain a loose situation, and the production of soda ash will continue to increase in 2024. Inventory will also exceed 3 million tons or about 4 million tons. In terms of imports, there may be less imports and more exports in 2024. Downstream glass has a rigid demand for soda ash, and prices in the second half of the year may be better than those in the first half. It is expected that the price of soda ash will first decrease and then increase, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week. The price of potassium chloride has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3005 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.44%, a year-on-year decrease of 22.70%. On January 7th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 95.40, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 63.78% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have declined this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2860 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2750-2800 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2900-2950 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2650 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly decreased this week. The price has dropped from 75310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7480 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.40%. The weekend price has dropped by 17.80% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5375 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

This week, the price of isooctyl acrylate increased significantly, and the rise in the isooctyl acrylate market was mainly affected by the rise in raw materials. During the week, the price of raw material octanol increased, and the cost of isooctyl acrylate manufacturers increased, leading to stronger market support. However, the traditional off-season terminal downstream transmission speed is still slow, and as of this Friday, the market reference price is around 13425 yuan/ton.

Overall, the cost side octanol market price of isooctyl acrylate has increased, and there is currently no significant improvement in demand. Business Society’s isooctyl acrylate analyst predicts that the market for isooctyl acrylate will mainly fluctuate and consolidate next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride remained stable in December, with potassium chloride prices around 3080.00 yuan/ton. On December 28th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2860 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2800 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, the self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port was around 2900-3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade was around 2700 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. There are approximately 3.1 to 3.2 million tons of potassium chloride stored in the port.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this month, dropping from 7550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.53%. The end of month price has decreased by 17.47% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate has slightly decreased this month, dropping from 5475 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.91%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 8.44% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand is average, industrial demand is weakening, and downstream manufacturers are less proactive in purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early January, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride continued to rise in December. As of December 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7860.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 10.70% from 7100.00 yuan/ton on December 1st.

In terms of supply: In early December, a local unit of maleic anhydride unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a tight supply of maleic anhydride; In addition, the northern rainy and snowy weather has hindered logistics, supporting the maleic anhydride market. In late December, the factory mainly executed preliminary orders, with tight spot prices. However, there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream at the end of the month, and caution was exercised in chasing higher prices. As of December 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 7700-7800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 7600-7700 yuan/ton.

Upstream aspect: The hydrogenation benzene market saw an overall upward trend in December. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 7066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7183.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.65%. In December, the pure benzene market followed the overall trend of crude oil, falling first and then rising. In the first half of the month, it continued to decline, and in the second half, it steadily rose and recovered the month’s decline, ultimately closing up 8.03%. Sinopec’s listed price first fell and then rose, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuated, and by the end of the month, mainstream manufacturers in the main production areas were executing 7200 yuan/ton, indicating a strong overall operation of the industrial chain.

In December, the international crude oil market was volatile, while the naphtha market was volatile and downward. Recently, the market for n-butane was volatile and downward. As of December 30th, the price in Shandong was around 5100-5200 yuan/ton.

Downstream: In December, the unsaturated resin market continued to rise due to the continuous rise in raw materials. However, towards the end of the year, downstream demand for resin was weak, and overall market trading was average, with cautious operations.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that currently, the upstream hydrogenation benzene market of maleic anhydride is rising, and the cost of maleic anhydride is supported; Downstream unsaturated resin transactions are limited, and the market often follows the trend of entering the market; At present, the prices of the main factories of maleic anhydride remain stable, with the execution of preliminary orders being the main focus. The price of maleic anhydride is high, and downstream purchasing sentiment is average. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate at high levels after the holiday.

Recently (12.18-12.28), the market situation of nitrile rubber has slightly improved. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 28th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14475 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% from 14425 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the low point during the cycle was 14300 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, while the price of acrylonitrile has narrowed, leading to an increase in the cost center of nitrile rubber; The downstream gradually enters the low season in winter, with low inquiries and low market transactions. The market price of nitrile rubber has slightly increased in the short term due to the expected reduction in butadiene production.

Recently (12.18-12.28), the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, while the price of acrylonitrile has weakened, resulting in a slight increase in the cost center of nitrile rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 28th, the price of butadiene was 8575 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.41% from 8058 yuan/ton on December 18th; As of December 28th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% from 9862 yuan/ton on December 18th.

Recently (from December 18th to December 28th), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been generally stable.

The production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained stable at a low level of around 5.9%, while the production of rubber insulation foam has been around 6.3%. Be cautious about inquiries about nitrile rubber, with a slightly stagnant trading atmosphere on the exchange, resulting in a weakening of the nitrile rubber market.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, nitrile rubber plants are operating normally with relatively sufficient supply and weak downstream inquiries. However, due to the impact of rising raw material prices, the cost of nitrile rubber has some support. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 27th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.58% from the price of aluminum fluoride on December 1st, which was 11200 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased. In addition, the import of aluminum fluoride increased and the export decreased in November, leading to an increase in aluminum fluoride supply and a decrease in demand. As a result, the price of aluminum fluoride fell in December.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 27th, the price of fluorite was 3543.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.90% compared to the price of 3612.50 yuan/ton on November 27th. As of December 27th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10683.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the quoted price of 10766.67 yuan/ton on December 1st. The downstream demand for fluorite is sluggish, the fluorite market is weakening, and the price of fluorite is weak and falling. Downstream refrigerant manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement of hydrofluoric acid is poor, resulting in a decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. In addition, sulfuric acid prices have plummeted, raw material prices have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased.

In November, imports of aluminum fluoride increased and exports decreased

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of aluminum fluoride in November was 999000 kilograms, and the cumulative import volume of aluminum fluoride in 2023 was 1038629 kilograms, a significant increase of 345.55% compared to the import volume in 2022. The import volume of aluminum fluoride has increased significantly, coupled with an increase in domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises resuming work in December, the supply of domestic aluminum fluoride market has increased.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of aluminum fluoride in November was 7779023 kilograms; The export volume decreased by 23.4% month on month compared to October; A year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. The export volume of aluminum fluoride has significantly decreased, and the domestic demand for aluminum fluoride has decreased, increasing the pressure on the price decline of aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from the Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry, in terms of raw materials, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell in December, leading to a decrease in the cost of aluminum fluoride; In terms of supply, the import of aluminum fluoride increased in November, coupled with an increase in the resumption of work by aluminum fluoride enterprises in late November and early December, resulting in an increase in aluminum fluoride supply; In terms of demand, the export of aluminum fluoride has decreased, coupled with a significant decrease in the bidding and procurement prices of large factories at the beginning of the month, resulting in a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride. In the future, costs will decrease, coupled with an increase in aluminum fluoride supply and a decrease in demand, and it is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.