According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic Shandong propane market experienced narrow fluctuations this week. On January 29th, the average price of propane in Shandong’s market was 5370 yuan/ton, and on February 4th, it was 5375 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 0.09%, a decrease of 16.33% compared to the same period last year.

As of February 4th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ February 4th

East China region/ 5000-5250 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5100-5250 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5200-5250 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5000-5150 yuan/ton

This week (1.29-2.4), the Shandong propane market first rose and then stabilized, with an overall slight increase. At the beginning of the week, crude oil and external markets rose one after another, and with positive news, the buying and selling atmosphere on the market improved. Downstream active stocking led to a continued rise in propane prices. Subsequently, oil prices fell, coupled with a weakening of downstream stocking, and the market atmosphere began to weaken, leading to upstream discounts and selling.

Saudi Aramco announced its CP in February 2024, with propane priced at $630 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $640 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, as the Spring Festival approaches and logistics capacity weakens, demand will further weaken. It is expected that the propane market will experience a narrow decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this week was 3466 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this week was 3450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48%.

The domestic potassium sulfate market prices are weak, and resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers have normal operating rates and normal production during the Spring Festival period, ensuring sufficient supply of resource-based potassium sulfate. The official prices of manufacturers have no new policies, and the market prices are inconsistent, resulting in negotiated transaction orders. At present, 52% of Guotou Luo potassium powder arrives at the station at 3500-3600 yuan/ton, and 50% of Qinghai water and salt powder arrives at the station at 3400-3450 yuan/ton. This price is insufficient for new transactions.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, due to multiple factors such as logistics, transportation, and labor, most downstream factories and intermediate trade banks carry out a certain amount of raw material procurement reserves. Some downstream factories plan to end the holiday early after the year to ensure the supply of raw materials to a certain extent.

Prediction: The domestic potassium fertilizer market has sufficient supply, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81% month on month and 10.98% year-on-year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is operating with a narrow upward trend. During the week, there were relatively few socially available spot goods, coupled with the impact of weather and other factors on unloading speed. At the same time, the transportation cost from the northwest production area to the sales area market increased, leading to a significant increase in domestic methanol prices. As supply gradually recovers, downstream receiving sentiment is average, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has risen, with good cost support. However, downstream procurement remains in high demand, and the holiday is approaching. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that the price may fluctuate slightly.

Recently (1.26-1.31), the acrylonitrile market has been mainly deadlocked. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the price of acrylonitrile in the loose water market was 9287 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9200 to 9500 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened; Near the end of the lunar year, the main downstream ABS production has dropped to around 65%, with a small amount of inquiries about acrylonitrile; The overall supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the acrylonitrile market is slightly stagnant before the holiday.

Recently (1.26-1.31), domestic acrylonitrile units have been operating steadily with sufficient supply.

Recently (1.26-1.31), the raw material propylene market has slightly declined, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened. As it rose to a high level within the month, the price difference with downstream polypropylene narrowed, suppressing downstream demand and leading to a slight pullback at the end of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the domestic propylene price was 6880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% from 6980 yuan/ton on the 26th.

It is understood that since mid to late January, downstream ABS prices have risen but production has gradually decreased to a low level of around 6.5%, resulting in a significant weakening of demand for acrylonitrile; At present, acrylic fiber factories are frequently receiving purchase orders from yarn factories at the beginning of the month, with overall low production and weak demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; The acrylamide industry is operating at a low rate of 40-50%, and the demand for acrylonitrile is weakening. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile before the holiday was weak, and the supply of acrylonitrile was loose, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Market forecast: Business Society acrylonitrile analysts believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still sufficient; The demand side support is weak, and the price of raw material propylene has fallen from a high level. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a narrow consolidation trend before the holiday.

Price trend in 2023

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam on January 1st was 11066 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average market price of caprolactam was 13842 yuan/ton. The overall domestic caprolactam market rose by 25.08% for the whole year of 2023. The highest value for the year was 14162 yuan/ton on September 21, and the lowest value for the year was 11066 yuan/ton on January 1.

2023 Market Analysis

In 2023, the domestic caprolactam market fluctuated and rose.

In the first half of 2023, the caprolactam market showed a strong upward trend and then fluctuated. In January, the price of raw material pure benzene increased, and cost support strengthened. The spot supply of caprolactam in the market is tight, and the price of caprolactam has increased accordingly. From February to March, the price of caprolactam fluctuated and fell. The supply of caprolactam in the spot market has increased, and the market situation has weakened. In April, due to the increase in the price of pure benzene raw material and strengthened cost support, the market price of caprolactam rose again with the raw material. The downstream PA6 market is improving, with an increase in procurement demand. Partial maintenance of caprolactam equipment in enterprises has led to a decrease in market supply. From May to June, the price of caprolactam fluctuated and fell. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to decline, with insufficient cost support. Downstream demand performance is insufficient, procurement is more cautious, and the market is mostly low price transactions.

In the second half of 2023, the caprolactam market continued to rise, then fell and rose again. In mid to early September, the market price of caprolactam fluctuated and increased. The market for raw material pure benzene is strengthening, with favorable cost support. The supply of caprolactam in the market has decreased, and downstream demand has followed up. The focus of caprolactam transactions has increased. From late September to October, the market price of caprolactam fell. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, weakening cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, weak terminal demand. From November to December, the market price of caprolactam rose again. Some enterprises are undergoing parking and maintenance, resulting in a decrease in local market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable.

According to the K-bar chart of 2023, it can be seen that the maximum increase in caprolactam in January 2023 was 14.76%. The largest decline of the year was in February, with a decrease of 4.94%.

2024 Aftermarket Forecast

Capacity situation

In 2023, the total domestic production capacity of caprolactam was 6.53 million tons, an increase of 840000 tons compared to 2022, and a year-on-year increase of 14.8% in production capacity.

Cost situation

In 2023, the price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated, with overall fluctuations and upward movements. On January 1st, the price was 6532 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the price was 7193 yuan/ton, with an annual price increase of 10.11%. In 2023, the pure benzene industry chain will continue to expand, with a dual increase in supply and demand pattern. The rise in benzene prices in 2023 provides favorable support for the cost side of caprolactam, and the price trend of raw material pure benzene has a significant impact on the caprolactam market.

Supply situation

In April 2023, there was a significant maintenance of the caprolactam unit, resulting in a reduction in market supply. Due to the tight spot market, the price of caprolactam has increased. In September, some caprolactam units were unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a further reduction in supply and an increase in caprolactam prices. At the end of the year, some enterprises stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in local market supply.

Demand situation

In 2023, the estimated growth rate of caprolactam consumption is over 16%, a significant increase from 5.97% in 2022. With the end of the domestic epidemic and the growth of national consumption level, the demand for terminal clothing market has recovered, driving the growth of downstream PA6 slicing and terminal nylon industry demand, and the demand for caprolactam market continues to increase. The steady increase in domestic nylon industry exports also supports caprolactam.

summary

In summary, the overall market for caprolactam in 2023 has been fluctuating, consolidating, and rising. In 2023, caprolactam production capacity will continue to expand, terminal demand will increase, cost support will be provided, and profitability will improve. With the development of the domestic economy, the demand for caprolactam in the market will continue to increase in 2024, production capacity will continue to increase, industry competition will become more intense, and market prospects will develop positively.

Price trend in 2023

According to data from Business Society, the average market price of thermal phosphoric acid on January 1st was 9025 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average market price of thermal phosphoric acid was 6580 yuan/ton. In 2023, the domestic thermal phosphoric acid market fell by 27.09% for the whole year. The highest value of thermal phosphoric acid for the year was 9050 yuan/ton on January 10th, and the lowest value for the year was 5810 yuan/ton on May 19th.

According to data from Business Society, the average market price of wet process phosphoric acid was 8966 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 6450 yuan/ton on December 31st. In 2023, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid market fell by 28.07% for the whole year. The highest value of wet process phosphoric acid for the year was 9116 yuan/ton on January 29th, and the lowest value for the year was 5983 yuan/ton on May 26th.

2023 Market Analysis

The phosphoric acid market experienced a significant decline in the first half of 2023, followed by a slight increase in the second half and a subsequent decline. In January, the phosphoric acid market fluctuated and stabilized. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been adjusted and operated, and there has been no significant change in the cost side for the time being. Before the Spring Festival, downstream phosphoric acid enterprises gradually stopped work and had holidays, resulting in a decrease in terminal procurement. The phosphoric acid market is operating in a stalemate, and the industry is mostly wait-and-see. The post holiday phosphoric acid market is gradually recovering. From February to May, the phosphoric acid market continued to decline. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, overall trading is weak, and the market is mainly bearish. Both cost and demand are weak, and domestic phosphoric acid prices have continuously decreased. From June to October, the prices of phosphoric acid in the market have risen. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, and cost support is favorable. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and the supply of wet acid is relatively tight. From November to December, the market price of phosphoric acid fell again. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore continues to weaken, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. The market demand is sluggish, trading is weak, and enterprise quotations have been lowered, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market.

According to the K-bar chart of the year 2023, it can be seen that the maximum increase in phosphoric acid for the year was in July, with a growth rate of 5.4%. The largest decline of the year in April was 13.41%.

2024 Aftermarket Forecast

Cost situation

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In 2023, a year of supply-demand contradiction in the yellow phosphorus market, the overall market price fell, with a price drop of 30.68% within the year. Overall, the future will maintain stable development. Domestic yellow phosphorus production enterprises need to increase investment in environmental protection, improve production processes, reduce energy consumption and pollution emissions, and promote the industry’s development towards green and sustainable direction.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. In 2023, the phosphate ore market has seen a wide range of ups and downs, but has stabilized and ended. In 2024, the overall supply side of phosphate ore will remain tight, providing market support and increasing downstream demand. The overall phosphate ore market is still on the rise, but the current market price is already at a high level. Therefore, the expected price increase in the phosphate ore market in 2024 is limited.

Supply situation

Since 2017, the production capacity of thermal phosphoric acid has gradually decreased, while the production capacity of wet process purified acid has gradually increased, and the overall production capacity has continued to increase. In 2022, the demand for new energy battery materials in China will increase, and the scale of the phosphoric acid market will increase. The market size of wet process phosphoric acid is 19.879 billion yuan, and the market size of thermal process phosphoric acid is 6.372 billion yuan. It is expected that the industrial phosphoric acid production capacity will reach 2.3188 million tons by 2023.

Export situation

The export volume of food grade phosphoric acid from China in 2023 was 363900 tons, a decrease of 19.63% compared to the same period last year. The export amount was 396 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 45.02% compared to 2022. Due to significant fluctuations in raw materials this year, foreign buyers have been more cautious, resulting in a decrease in export volume. There is little improvement in the short term, and it is expected that the export market in 2024 will not be optimistic.

Demand situation

The downstream demand in the phosphoric acid market in 2023 is mainly in industries such as phosphate, food additives, and surface treatment (phosphating and oxidation). Most of it is used for the production of phosphates. Phosphoric acid is one of the main raw materials for lithium iron phosphate. Due to the rapid development of the new energy industry in recent years, the demand for phosphoric acid has significantly increased.

summary

In summary, in 2023, the domestic phosphoric acid market was affected by weakened costs, high market supply, and reduced export orders, resulting in an overall weak and downward trend in the market. It is expected that the cost side and demand will be supported in 2024, but there will still be oversupply and poor export conditions. The domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly fluctuate, consolidate and operate. In recent years, under the pressure of environmental protection policies for phosphorus chemical industry, China’s phosphoric acid production technology will continue to improve and optimize.

Price trend:

According to monitoring data from Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 51500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.74% compared to the beginning of this week (53500.00 yuan/ton).

Analysis of influencing factors:

The production capacity of sponge titanium enterprises throughout the entire process has been released, and inventory levels have increased, resulting in oversupply of domestic sponge titanium. Among them, Liaoning has the largest increase in production, with a growth rate of 45%. At present, there is overcapacity in sponge titanium production, and the raw material end continues to rise, resulting in high costs. Downstream titanium material market demand is weak. However, as the end of the year approaches, the stocking sentiment has improved and the inventory has eased, but the signing price remains negotiable.

Post forecast:

Business Society Sponge Titanium Analyst believes that there is not much room for price increase in the sponge titanium market next week and it will continue to operate weakly and steadily.

Last week’s review: The domestic MIBK market continued to decline, with the focus of negotiations dropping to 14400 yuan/ton. The current industry operating rate is around 60%, and there is little short-term fluctuation.

The raw material acetone market has risen narrowly. As of now, the negotiated price in the acetone market in East China is between 6850-6900 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the market was average during the week. At the beginning of the week, with the arrival of port supplies, domestic factories are still in a loss making state. Traders are firm in their offers, and low prices are not offered. Petrochemical enterprises are maintaining stability and shipping according to plan, and downstream demand is following up. Purchasing sentiment is average, and transactions are flat.

From a terminal perspective, the intention to purchase large orders has decreased, and the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and tend to operate targeted contracts, but traders are holding onto the market and reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant increase in small order prices.

The planned quantity on the demand side is poor, and traders have a clear intention to ship. The actual supply exceeds the demand, and it is expected that the MIBK market will continue to decline today.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of DOP was 11900 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.49% compared to the price of 12080 yuan/ton on January 15. The cost support for plasticizer DOP has weakened, and the price of DOP has fluctuated and fallen this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of isooctanol was 12900 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.19% compared to the price of isooctanol on January 15, which was 12925 yuan/ton. Large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement, resulting in weaker transactions of isooctanol. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and the support for rising raw materials has weakened. The downward pressure on DOP has increased. Isooctanol manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, leading to an increase in transactions and increased support for the rise of isooctanol in the future.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP is insufficient. In addition, isooctanol manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, resulting in an increase in isooctanol transactions and increased support for the rise of isooctanol in the future. In the future, with stable supply and increased cost support, it is expected that DOP prices will consolidate strongly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have mostly remained stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 19th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13050 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region rose rapidly this week, with the increase concentrated in the second half of the week. Boosted by the rise in raw material methanol prices, formaldehyde has risen upstream. But as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream panel factories are taking more vacations, making it difficult to release demand. In addition, it will take time for the positive news to spread to POM, and overall support for POM costs is gradually warming.

In terms of supply:

The overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to rebound this week. The industry equipment load is approximately 84%. There are relatively few maintenance arrangements in the future, and it is expected that POM production will remain at a high level. Most enterprises have relatively low inventory levels and a strong willingness to support the market. The supply side still has sufficient support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

This week, downstream POM enterprises in China have had a poor level of production, with companies mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption continued to be weak. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. There has been no concentrated release of pre holiday stocking operations, and overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is weak.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market has been stagnant this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has increased narrowly, and the inventory position of enterprises is low, resulting in moderate pressure on the supply side. Manufacturers have stabilized market confidence through market support operations, but the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is poor, and some merchants are under high shipping pressure. Terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and the number of enterprises taking holidays before holidays continues to increase. The overall load is decreasing, and purchasing operations are cautious. On exchange trading is weak, and it is expected that the POM market will continue to consolidate at a high level in the near future.