I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 13, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R134a slightly increased, which was 0.74% higher than the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers on November 6, 22666.. 7 yuan / ton, and 22.16% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market price of R134a in refrigerant market has been at a low level in the near future, with the base close to the bottom and few transactions in the market. In the near future, due to the fact that the automobile refrigerant will start to enter the cycle of goods preparation, it just needs to improve, and some enterprises’ maintenance, the market supply will decrease, which will benefit the price of refrigerant. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end is slightly lower, and the delivery situation of manufacturers in the field is still not improved. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. Some manufacturers continue to reduce the factory price, and the cost is negative in the face of refrigerant. As of November 13, the quotation of R134a of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 25500 yuan / ton, that of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 21000 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang Technology Co., Ltd. is 22000 yuan / ton, that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 24000 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 21000 yuan / ton, that of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 25000 yuan / ton, and that of blue planet is 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end is slightly lower, and the delivery situation of manufacturers in the field is still not improved. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. Some manufacturers continue to reduce the factory price, and the cost is negative in the face of refrigerant.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 13, 2019, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), R22 (4.80%) and chloroform (3.81%) There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are epichlorohydrin (- 11.45%), urea (- 3.23%) and lithium carbonate (- 2.70%) The average price of this day is 0.06%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club: in the near future, due to the fact that the automobile refrigerant will start to enter the stock cycle and just need to improve, coupled with the maintenance of some enterprises, the market supply will be reduced, which is good for the refrigerant price to rise. It is expected that the R134a market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.

I. price trend

Recently, China’s domestic butadiene market has been weak. As of November 12, the price of butadiene was 8790 yuan / ton, down 23.98% on a month on month basis and 12.98% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business club.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene market is weak, the downstream inquiry intention is low, the North just needs to support the market is limited, the price of the northern export manufacturers is lowered, dragging the market down. The delivery price of superior products in Shandong Province is 9400-9500 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is about 9500 yuan / ton. The weak market drags merchants’ mentality, and the actual order transaction is limited.

In terms of market, the butadiene market in Shandong Province has been in a downward trend. Prices of some manufacturers in the north have been lowered, and the offers of middlemen have been lowered. The price of superior products is about 9200-9300 yuan / ton. The downstream is still cautious, and some of them pay attention to the latest price guidance of suppliers in the afternoon. The inquiry atmosphere of butadiene market in East China is weak, and the middleman has no intention to lower the offer. The price of superior products is about 9400 yuan / ton, and the actual order is waiting to be seen. Affected by the atmosphere in the north, the downstream inquiry intention is in a low state.

In terms of units: Yangzi Petrochemical’s 220000 T / a unit, 3 × long-term shutdown; 1 × 120000 T / a unit and 2 × 120000 T / a unit are in normal operation; Zhenhai Refining and chemical’s 165000 T / a unit is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply, with a small amount of export; Jiangsu silbang’s 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit is in normal operation, with supply contract. Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 T / a unit is in normal operation and the goods are exported normally.

III. future forecast

Butadiene external market continued to decline, and the trend of downstream product market was not good, and butadiene spot market was short of sustained support. With the price correction of some manufacturers, butadiene analysts of the business agency predicted that the short-term domestic butadiene market was not short of a small downward consolidation expectation. It is recommended to note the information of domestic manufacturers’ devices and price guidance.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong fell from 7083.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.47%, down 26.33% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the octanol commodity index at 51.84 on November 8.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of main octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly fell: hualuhengsheng’s factory quotation of this week’s octanol is 7100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 7000 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of this week’s octanol is 7050 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7265.77 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7323.08 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.79%, down 20.13% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market situation: this week, DOP factory price is temporarily stable. DOP quoted 7433.33 yuan / ton, down 23.17% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

III. future forecast

In mid November, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, and the cost support was strong, but the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. At present, the octanol inventory in Shandong is low, and the delivery is tight. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, in the middle of November, the octanol market in Shandong Province may be consolidated at a low level under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend:

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 6800 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week of 6800 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 34.62%.

II. Market analysis:

Products: this week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun unit is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical unit is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang unit is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong unit is full load, Qilu Petrochemical equipment is stable The plant is stable in operation, with the Urumqi petrochemical plant operating at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operating normally, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%. The supply of PX in Asia is normal. The price of PX outside this week fluctuates. As of the weekend, the closing price of PX market in Asia is 767-769 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 787-789 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the fluctuation of the original international oil price, the price of PX outside this week has little change. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported, P X external closing price shocks to the domestic market to bring some support, the domestic PX market price trend is temporarily stable.

Industry chain: the domestic crude oil closing price is mainly volatile this week. As of the 7th, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price was $57.15/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures price was $62.29/barrel. Overall, the crude oil closing price rose slightly this week. According to the statistics published by the EIA, the U.S. crude oil inventory (excluding strategic oil reserves) ended on November 1 It is 7.9 million barrels higher than the previous week, and the total crude oil inventory in the United States is 446.8 million barrels, 3% higher than the five-year average. Crude oil price volatility has a certain cost support impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and PX market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream slightly declined. As of the end of the week, the price trend of PX market in the East China PTA market was around 4800-4900 yuan, and the price trend of PX market in the upstream raw material was temporarily stable. In the near future, the starting load of PTA was about 91.5%. The restart of multiple units at the supply end was bad for PX market, and the terminal demand slightly changed, and the polyester starting remained stable. The starting load of downstream polyester is about 87%, and the starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 75%. The profit of the terminal weaving and texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 75%, and the purchasing and stock up mood is general. The prices of polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are mainly stable, the terminal demand is not significantly improved, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

Industry: this week, the textile industry market trend remained volatile, the textile industry operating rate changed little, the crude oil price was mainly volatile, and the raw material PX market was temporarily stable.

3. Future forecast:

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, thinks that the crude oil price range is fluctuating in the near future, but PTA market price is weak, the price of PX external market changes little, the operating rate of downstream textile industry remains high, the supply of domestic PX market is normal, and the PX market price is expected to maintain 6800 yuan / ton next week.

I. price trend:

In October 2019, the crude benzene market fell in shock. The factory price in North China was 4496.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4145 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 7.82%.

The crude benzene commodity index at October 31 was 64.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.77% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.38% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: after the festival, the crude benzene market fell sharply, the price of pure benzene on the market and the international oil price continued to fall, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 5600 yuan / ton, the market was bearish, the bidding price in the main production area fell sharply, the downstream pure benzene was not smooth, the profit space of the hydrogenation benzene enterprises was narrowed, the pressure on crude benzene rose, the price of crude benzene went into the market, and the market lacked effective support The price of crude benzene fell sharply due to the heavy profit and empty factor. After entering the consolidation channel, prices fluctuated slightly. By the end of the month, the main offer of crude benzene market was 3950-4215 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: crude oil fell at the end of this month in a wide range of shocks, WTI oil price fell 1.52% compared with last month, Brent oil price fell 2.1% compared with last month. Bad: trade risks, geopolitical situation, market concerns about slowing demand for crude oil. Good news: OPEC continues to insist on reducing production and making good progress in trade negotiations. Pure benzene: at the beginning of this month, due to the national day, the production limit of environmental protection inspection was large, and the transportation during the National Day was limited, so pure benzene enterprises began to reduce the price for shipment. After the festival, the hydrogenated benzene plant was resumed and the supply increased; the coking industry continued to break through the new low, which had a great impact on the pure benzene.

3. Trend forecast:

In the later period, the international oil price will still be in shock consolidation. Pay attention to OPEC production reduction, negotiation progress and various risk issues in the later stage. Pure benzene external market performance is poor, the market is lack of positive boost, it is expected that crude benzene chain material is mainly weak shock.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (October 31, 2019): 14650 yuan / ton

3. Key points of analysis: since September, the price of magnesium ingot has been almost monotonous downward. With the price downturn, affected by cost factors, magnesium enterprises are under great pressure. In the near future, some mainstream manufacturers have strong willingness to hold up the price, and they have increased their offers. At present, the market quotation is more chaotic, but the low-cost goods source is more difficult to find than in the early stage, the market is expected to rise, and the procurement is just needed.

4. Future market forecast: Although the overall market is weak and the export situation is general, the price is low. Affected by cost factors, the manufacturer has great downward resistance. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will be strong in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be concerned in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, polysilicon market in October did not continue the high market in September. The price stopped rising and the increase was quite limited. Especially in the late ten days, the market gradually cooled down, but the pressure of supply and demand was not great, the market showed some rigidity, and the price did not fall significantly. As of October 30, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall growth rate of domestic polysilicon solar grade was 1.62%, and the average price of the enterprise was 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell about 20% year on year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is narrower than that in September.

II. Market analysis

In the whole month, the domestic polysilicon market performance is relatively stable. After going through the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the polysilicon market has entered a stable period at present. As the overall market temperature has not continued, the procurement remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the purchase price of polysilicon will continue to fluctuate in the next month. From the perspective of supply and demand, the current market performance is relatively balanced. On the one hand, the market supply is sufficient, and the overhaul rate of large factories is low, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, there are four polysilicon enterprises in the overhaul period by the end of the month in 15 domestic polysilicon production enterprises, and the overhaul is expected to continue to November. At present, most enterprises have started to sign orders in November, which is also an important factor supporting the price of polysilicon. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 3160 tons, an increase of 4.6% on a month on month basis. The increase of domestic production in October mainly comes from the release of new production capacity of Yongxiang, Xinjiang GCL, Xinjiang Daquan and other enterprises, with a total increase of 2500 tons on a month on month basis. Generally speaking, the supply in October is enlarged, but combining with the price stability, we can infer the rigidity of polysilicon downstream demand. The market is still at the end of the “silver ten” peak season, with relatively active supply and demand performance.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: in October, the polysilicon market demand continued the momentum of September. Although it did not expand significantly in September, it was still in a moderate growth, and the market demand was relatively stable. Previously, the silicon material price corresponding to the silicon chip price was relatively low, so the pressure of polysilicon enterprises is indeed large at present, but with the polysilicon demand stabilizing in the near future, the overall situation It is not conducive to the price of overall polycrystalline products, so it also limits the price of polycrystalline silicon to continue to rebound. The trading performance of overseas polycrystalline market is more active than that of domestic market, especially the small material market. Considering the change of exchange rate, the high price market has increased. The main reason why the domestic polysilicon price did not continue to rise is that the demand did not continue to enlarge.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that at present, the market of polysilicon has stabilized, and there are four polysilicon companies that have not resumed normal operation by the end of the month, two of which are expected to resume in early November. According to the operation status and production and maintenance plan of silicon material enterprises at home and abroad, the polysilicon supply in November is slightly less than expected. Considering that the current inventory pressure of enterprises is not large, there is still a certain risk in polysilicon supply. In addition, the trend of polycrystalline silicon in the future mainly depends on the change of demand: the demand begins to shift to the single crystal market, so the single crystal market may be better than the polycrystalline market. Accordingly, the single crystal will occupy part of the polycrystalline demand, while the polycrystalline demand shows a decreasing trend. However, the maintenance of the silicon enterprise affects part of the supply in the same period, offsetting the impact of some expected demand reduction. Therefore, in the short term, the polysilicon market will continue to maintain a stable and strong trend, mainly with narrow amplitude fluctuations.

On October 29, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 29th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 28, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was stable. The closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic products needed to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price had a certain negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend was temporarily stable.

On October 28, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell to US $55.81/barrel, or US $0.85, while Brent crude oil futures price fell to US $61.57/barrel, or US $0.45, and the number of drilling rigs in the United States dropped sharply. Baker Hughes’ data shows that this week, the number of drilling rigs decreased by 21 to 830, 238 less than 1068 a year ago, and the number of land drilling rigs decreased by 20, a total of 807. The number of drilling rigs in inland waters remained unchanged at 2, and the number of offshore drilling rigs decreased by 1, a total of 21. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 28th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 84.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On October 28, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 28th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of the 600000 ton new plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of the petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of the petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of the aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 25, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic PX market price, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 24, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 56.23 US dollars / barrel, or 0.26 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 61.67 US dollars / barrel, or 0.5 US dollars. The number of us rigs dropped sharply. Baker Hughes’ data shows that this week, the number of drilling rigs decreased by 21 to 830, 238 less than 1068 a year ago, and the number of land drilling rigs decreased by 20, a total of 807. The number of drilling rigs in inland waters remained unchanged at 2, and the number of offshore drilling rigs decreased by 1, a total of 21. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 25th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 87.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the butanone market remained weak and fell. As of Friday (October 25) of this week, based on the quotations of several sample enterprises, the average price of butanone market was around 8883.33 yuan / ton, down 1.84% compared with October 18.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the butanone market as a whole continued to decline, the offer was loose, and the factory continued to reduce the offer, reducing the price for shipment, and the low price fell below 8600 yuan / ton. South China has a large number of ships this month, the market mentality is not positive, the overall mentality is mainly bearish, many factories and traders offer profits, the shipping performance is average, and the downstream purchasing power is weak. Recently, the market has been cold. At present, the price difference between South China and North China and East China is still large. The mainstream reference price in South China is around 9150 yuan / ton, which is about 650 yuan / ton lower than last week. The mainstream reference price in North China is around 8700 yuan / ton, which is about 700 yuan / ton lower than last week. The mainstream reference price in East China is around 8700 yuan / ton, which is 70 yuan lower than last week. About 0 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the overall stability of upstream raw material liquefied gas (Civil) is slightly reduced this week. At present, the market price of liquefied gas in North China is stable, the mainstream price is around 3850-3900 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the market price of liquefied gas in Shandong is down, the mainstream price is around 3800-4100 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the market price of liquefied gas in East China is down, and the mainstream price is normal. At about 3700 yuan / ton, the market transaction was normal.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, it is expected that the butanone market will continue to operate in a narrow and weak range in the next week, which does not exclude the possibility that the market still has a small fluctuation.