I. price trend:

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 6800 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week of 6800 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 34.62%.

II. Market analysis:

Products: this week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun unit is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical unit is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang unit is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong unit is full load, Qilu Petrochemical equipment is stable The plant is stable in operation, with the Urumqi petrochemical plant operating at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operating normally, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%. The supply of PX in Asia is normal. The price of PX outside this week fluctuates. As of the weekend, the closing price of PX market in Asia is 767-769 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 787-789 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the fluctuation of the original international oil price, the price of PX outside this week has little change. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported, P X external closing price shocks to the domestic market to bring some support, the domestic PX market price trend is temporarily stable.

Industry chain: the domestic crude oil closing price is mainly volatile this week. As of the 7th, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price was $57.15/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures price was $62.29/barrel. Overall, the crude oil closing price rose slightly this week. According to the statistics published by the EIA, the U.S. crude oil inventory (excluding strategic oil reserves) ended on November 1 It is 7.9 million barrels higher than the previous week, and the total crude oil inventory in the United States is 446.8 million barrels, 3% higher than the five-year average. Crude oil price volatility has a certain cost support impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and PX market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream slightly declined. As of the end of the week, the price trend of PX market in the East China PTA market was around 4800-4900 yuan, and the price trend of PX market in the upstream raw material was temporarily stable. In the near future, the starting load of PTA was about 91.5%. The restart of multiple units at the supply end was bad for PX market, and the terminal demand slightly changed, and the polyester starting remained stable. The starting load of downstream polyester is about 87%, and the starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 75%. The profit of the terminal weaving and texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 75%, and the purchasing and stock up mood is general. The prices of polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are mainly stable, the terminal demand is not significantly improved, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

Industry: this week, the textile industry market trend remained volatile, the textile industry operating rate changed little, the crude oil price was mainly volatile, and the raw material PX market was temporarily stable.

3. Future forecast:

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, thinks that the crude oil price range is fluctuating in the near future, but PTA market price is weak, the price of PX external market changes little, the operating rate of downstream textile industry remains high, the supply of domestic PX market is normal, and the PX market price is expected to maintain 6800 yuan / ton next week.

I. price trend:

In October 2019, the crude benzene market fell in shock. The factory price in North China was 4496.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4145 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 7.82%.

The crude benzene commodity index at October 31 was 64.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.77% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.38% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: after the festival, the crude benzene market fell sharply, the price of pure benzene on the market and the international oil price continued to fall, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 5600 yuan / ton, the market was bearish, the bidding price in the main production area fell sharply, the downstream pure benzene was not smooth, the profit space of the hydrogenation benzene enterprises was narrowed, the pressure on crude benzene rose, the price of crude benzene went into the market, and the market lacked effective support The price of crude benzene fell sharply due to the heavy profit and empty factor. After entering the consolidation channel, prices fluctuated slightly. By the end of the month, the main offer of crude benzene market was 3950-4215 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: crude oil fell at the end of this month in a wide range of shocks, WTI oil price fell 1.52% compared with last month, Brent oil price fell 2.1% compared with last month. Bad: trade risks, geopolitical situation, market concerns about slowing demand for crude oil. Good news: OPEC continues to insist on reducing production and making good progress in trade negotiations. Pure benzene: at the beginning of this month, due to the national day, the production limit of environmental protection inspection was large, and the transportation during the National Day was limited, so pure benzene enterprises began to reduce the price for shipment. After the festival, the hydrogenated benzene plant was resumed and the supply increased; the coking industry continued to break through the new low, which had a great impact on the pure benzene.

3. Trend forecast:

In the later period, the international oil price will still be in shock consolidation. Pay attention to OPEC production reduction, negotiation progress and various risk issues in the later stage. Pure benzene external market performance is poor, the market is lack of positive boost, it is expected that crude benzene chain material is mainly weak shock.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (October 31, 2019): 14650 yuan / ton

3. Key points of analysis: since September, the price of magnesium ingot has been almost monotonous downward. With the price downturn, affected by cost factors, magnesium enterprises are under great pressure. In the near future, some mainstream manufacturers have strong willingness to hold up the price, and they have increased their offers. At present, the market quotation is more chaotic, but the low-cost goods source is more difficult to find than in the early stage, the market is expected to rise, and the procurement is just needed.

4. Future market forecast: Although the overall market is weak and the export situation is general, the price is low. Affected by cost factors, the manufacturer has great downward resistance. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will be strong in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be concerned in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, polysilicon market in October did not continue the high market in September. The price stopped rising and the increase was quite limited. Especially in the late ten days, the market gradually cooled down, but the pressure of supply and demand was not great, the market showed some rigidity, and the price did not fall significantly. As of October 30, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall growth rate of domestic polysilicon solar grade was 1.62%, and the average price of the enterprise was 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell about 20% year on year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is narrower than that in September.

II. Market analysis

In the whole month, the domestic polysilicon market performance is relatively stable. After going through the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the polysilicon market has entered a stable period at present. As the overall market temperature has not continued, the procurement remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the purchase price of polysilicon will continue to fluctuate in the next month. From the perspective of supply and demand, the current market performance is relatively balanced. On the one hand, the market supply is sufficient, and the overhaul rate of large factories is low, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, there are four polysilicon enterprises in the overhaul period by the end of the month in 15 domestic polysilicon production enterprises, and the overhaul is expected to continue to November. At present, most enterprises have started to sign orders in November, which is also an important factor supporting the price of polysilicon. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 3160 tons, an increase of 4.6% on a month on month basis. The increase of domestic production in October mainly comes from the release of new production capacity of Yongxiang, Xinjiang GCL, Xinjiang Daquan and other enterprises, with a total increase of 2500 tons on a month on month basis. Generally speaking, the supply in October is enlarged, but combining with the price stability, we can infer the rigidity of polysilicon downstream demand. The market is still at the end of the “silver ten” peak season, with relatively active supply and demand performance.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: in October, the polysilicon market demand continued the momentum of September. Although it did not expand significantly in September, it was still in a moderate growth, and the market demand was relatively stable. Previously, the silicon material price corresponding to the silicon chip price was relatively low, so the pressure of polysilicon enterprises is indeed large at present, but with the polysilicon demand stabilizing in the near future, the overall situation It is not conducive to the price of overall polycrystalline products, so it also limits the price of polycrystalline silicon to continue to rebound. The trading performance of overseas polycrystalline market is more active than that of domestic market, especially the small material market. Considering the change of exchange rate, the high price market has increased. The main reason why the domestic polysilicon price did not continue to rise is that the demand did not continue to enlarge.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that at present, the market of polysilicon has stabilized, and there are four polysilicon companies that have not resumed normal operation by the end of the month, two of which are expected to resume in early November. According to the operation status and production and maintenance plan of silicon material enterprises at home and abroad, the polysilicon supply in November is slightly less than expected. Considering that the current inventory pressure of enterprises is not large, there is still a certain risk in polysilicon supply. In addition, the trend of polycrystalline silicon in the future mainly depends on the change of demand: the demand begins to shift to the single crystal market, so the single crystal market may be better than the polycrystalline market. Accordingly, the single crystal will occupy part of the polycrystalline demand, while the polycrystalline demand shows a decreasing trend. However, the maintenance of the silicon enterprise affects part of the supply in the same period, offsetting the impact of some expected demand reduction. Therefore, in the short term, the polysilicon market will continue to maintain a stable and strong trend, mainly with narrow amplitude fluctuations.

On October 29, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 29th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 28, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was stable. The closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic products needed to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price had a certain negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend was temporarily stable.

On October 28, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell to US $55.81/barrel, or US $0.85, while Brent crude oil futures price fell to US $61.57/barrel, or US $0.45, and the number of drilling rigs in the United States dropped sharply. Baker Hughes’ data shows that this week, the number of drilling rigs decreased by 21 to 830, 238 less than 1068 a year ago, and the number of land drilling rigs decreased by 20, a total of 807. The number of drilling rigs in inland waters remained unchanged at 2, and the number of offshore drilling rigs decreased by 1, a total of 21. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 28th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 84.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On October 28, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 28th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of the 600000 ton new plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of the petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of the petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of the aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 25, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic PX market price, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 24, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 56.23 US dollars / barrel, or 0.26 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 61.67 US dollars / barrel, or 0.5 US dollars. The number of us rigs dropped sharply. Baker Hughes’ data shows that this week, the number of drilling rigs decreased by 21 to 830, 238 less than 1068 a year ago, and the number of land drilling rigs decreased by 20, a total of 807. The number of drilling rigs in inland waters remained unchanged at 2, and the number of offshore drilling rigs decreased by 1, a total of 21. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 25th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 87.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the butanone market remained weak and fell. As of Friday (October 25) of this week, based on the quotations of several sample enterprises, the average price of butanone market was around 8883.33 yuan / ton, down 1.84% compared with October 18.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the butanone market as a whole continued to decline, the offer was loose, and the factory continued to reduce the offer, reducing the price for shipment, and the low price fell below 8600 yuan / ton. South China has a large number of ships this month, the market mentality is not positive, the overall mentality is mainly bearish, many factories and traders offer profits, the shipping performance is average, and the downstream purchasing power is weak. Recently, the market has been cold. At present, the price difference between South China and North China and East China is still large. The mainstream reference price in South China is around 9150 yuan / ton, which is about 650 yuan / ton lower than last week. The mainstream reference price in North China is around 8700 yuan / ton, which is about 700 yuan / ton lower than last week. The mainstream reference price in East China is around 8700 yuan / ton, which is 70 yuan lower than last week. About 0 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the overall stability of upstream raw material liquefied gas (Civil) is slightly reduced this week. At present, the market price of liquefied gas in North China is stable, the mainstream price is around 3850-3900 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the market price of liquefied gas in Shandong is down, the mainstream price is around 3800-4100 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the market price of liquefied gas in East China is down, and the mainstream price is normal. At about 3700 yuan / ton, the market transaction was normal.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, it is expected that the butanone market will continue to operate in a narrow and weak range in the next week, which does not exclude the possibility that the market still has a small fluctuation.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin fell on October 23. On October 22, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5200 yuan / ton, and on October 23, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5133 yuan / ton, with a one-day price drop of 1.28%. On October 23, the paraffin commodity index was 76.43, down 0.99 points from yesterday, down 30.16% from 109.43 (2013-12-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.70% from 63.85, the lowest point on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton. 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: WTI rose $1.49 per barrel on Wednesday (October 23) at $55.97 in December 2019, and Brent rose $1.47 per barrel at $61.17 in December 2019. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract 1912 rose 2.3 yuan to 444.7 yuan / barrel.

Industry chain: domestic market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 has declined. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and few transactions. Prices of some enterprises have been lowered, and most of them have been quoted steadily. Substantial progress has been made in the US China Economic and trade negotiations, with international oil prices rising. The upstream liquid wax price remained stable, while the liquid ammonia price increased slightly. Downstream enterprises have low buying enthusiasm, the market reaction is flat, and most enterprises purchase on demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 23, 2019, there were two kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including one with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top two commodities were epichlorohydrin (8.05%) and sulfuric acid (2.44%). There are 23 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products were ammonium chloride (- 3.91%), caprolactam (- 2.39%) and mixed xylene (- 1.99%). The average price of this day was – 0.23%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin of business association think that the overall atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin market is weak at present and the rise is weak. The raw material market is dominated by horizontal market, the downstream power is insufficient, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin in the later stage will be mainly stagnant. It is suggested to pay attention to downstream demand and real-time market trends.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in China has fallen again. On October 16, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium in China was 2066 yuan / ton, while on October 22, the average ex factory price was 1983 yuan / ton, down 4.03%. On October 22, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 66.39, down 2.23 points from yesterday, 34.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 6.93% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in recent years, the domestic market of powdery monoammonium has been flat. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of raw sulfur will be stable after the festival. The supply and demand of domestic sulfur market is quiet. The negotiation atmosphere is cold. The industry is waiting for information and guidance. The domestic phosphorus ore market is still running smoothly, and the overall market is almost no fluctuation. Due to regional differences and different production, the price difference is large. Based on several sample areas, the average ex factory price of primary and high-end phosphorus ore is around 420 yuan / ton. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises for monoammonium phosphate is insufficient, and the market situation has not improved.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 5 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on October 22, 2019, among which there is 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (5.05%), ammonium chloride (4.07%) and R22 (1.67%). There are 24 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodity decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were nitric acid (- 8.62%), formaldehyde (37%) (- 4.88%), acetone (- 4.81%). The average price of this day was – 0.42%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association believe that the recent weak market of monoammonium phosphate is weak in autumn, and the industry is pessimistic about the situation of winter storage. It is expected that the market of monoammonium phosphate will continue to move forward in a weak way in the later stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the raw material market and downstream demand.

On October 22, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 22nd, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 21, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 761-763 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 781-783 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 21, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell to US $53.31/barrel, or US $0.47, while Brent crude oil futures price fell to US $58.96/barrel, or US $0.46. Measured by total domestic delivery, domestic oil demand in the United States was 20.8 million barrels / day, the highest level in September. 3.2% less than August, but 3.5% more than September 2018. As of September, the total oil demand averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, up 0.3% year-on-year, the highest level since 2007. Saudi Aramco said that the company has recovered its normal crude oil production level, and the crude oil processed in Abqaiq and khurais has reached the export grade. The crude oil price declined slightly, which had limited impact on the cost support of downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry has been in a volatile market, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average price of the offer in East China is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 21st day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 88%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general trading atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by crude oil price. The market price of PTA in the downstream is slightly lower due to the shock, and it is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.