1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 #)

2. Latest price (2020.02.12): 12091.67 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11700-11900 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11800-11900 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12600-12800 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 12100-12300 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 12200-12400 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

In the near future, two factors have been superimposed, leading to the positive market of silicon metal. Factor 1: domestic logistics is tight and spot supply is weak; factor 2: foreign demand is strong. On the one hand, the consumption of reserves before the festival is large, the inventory is low, and the demand for replenishment is strong; on the other hand, several foreign large aluminum alloy enterprises have started a new round of bidding, which is a combination of domestic supply concerns and strong price expectations.

4. Future forecast: the freight is tightening, and it is expected that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be strong.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the same period last month, down 17.96% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: after the Spring Festival, the market of cyclohexanone is basically closed, with few transactions. In the week, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene twice reduced 450 yuan / ton to 5500 yuan / ton. The cost support was insufficient. However, due to the impact of national traffic and road logistics and transportation, most of the terminal plants were delayed to return to work, the starting load of downstream caprolactam was reduced, the demand for cyclohexanone was also reduced, the inventory of cyclohexanone plants was increased, the load reduction production was carried out, the traders did not return to work temporarily, and the market atmosphere was relatively strong , cold delivery. In terms of price, the quoted price of cyclohexanone is still the price before the festival. The mainstream factory price is 7300-7450 yuan / ton, and there is no transaction price for the moment. Before the festival, 7400-7500 yuan / ton of surrounding spot exchange will be delivered to Shandong market, 7700-7900 yuan / ton of East China market, 7900-8000 yuan / ton of South China market..

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: after the festival, affected by the health events, the terminal was delayed to return to work, and the downstream was reduced in succession, resulting in a serious lack of follow-up of pure benzene market demand. In addition, there are various traffic restrictions. After Sinopec successively lowered the listing price of pure benzene to 5500 yuan / ton, the futures negotiation price in February and March weakened to 5300-5400 yuan / ton. However, due to the same logistics constraints, some downstream need to replenish pure benzene, and buying supports the spot price. Therefore, despite the reduction of futures price, the spot negotiation remains at a relatively high level of 5650-5800 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: spot trading in the caprolactam market has not resumed this week. Due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the postponement of resumption of work in the downstream areas, most of the terminal enterprises have not resumed work, and the new demand has not yet been released. In addition, the national road transportation has been affected, the trans provincial transportation is difficult, and the transportation and demand conditions have led to an increase in the inventory of caprolactam manufacturers. This week, the factory actively reduced production. At present, the overall operating rate of domestic caprolactam has dropped to 62.49%. Downstream contracts are mainly executed, and Sinopec’s advance collection price in February is reduced by 450 yuan / ton to 11550 yuan / ton (liquid, premium products, six-month acceptance and self withdrawal).

Adipic acid: in January, the market practice entered the Spring Festival holiday, and the sudden health and safety incidents developed rapidly. In most regions, road transportation at all levels was restricted, and short-distance delivery was also significantly affected. The market was much lighter than before. At the end of January and the beginning of February, the adipic acid plant completed the invoicing work, and the price increased by 300-400 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. Until now, most areas of the country have restricted the commencement of construction, which has been temporarily postponed to February 10. However, only a few enterprises have heard about and stopped the continuous production of adipic acid plant due to transportation restrictions, while others still have a proper production scheduling. Some relevant personnel are on duty or rotation. Recently, Shandong and other places have also adopted policies to guide the transportation of industrial and agricultural materials, and enterprises have also actively supported and provided cooperation services for customers, but there is no downstream service It is difficult for many factories to deliver goods to the outside world.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the national transportation and logistics, on the cost side, the pure benzene inventory increased, the market price was expected to be lowered, and the market support for cyclohexanone was insufficient. On the demand side, the start-up of the terminal plant is delayed, and the enthusiasm of downstream caprolactam procurement is expected to decrease. Under the inventory pressure, the cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predict that the market price of cyclohexanone is more likely to linger near the cost line, and the price is likely to be lowered.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2215.00 yuan / ton, down 8.47% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the January 10 potassium chloride commodity index at 70.32.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2180 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation in late January. After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply this week. As of January 17, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 4750.00 yuan / ton, up 137.50 yuan / ton, up 2.98% from 4612.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; up 250.00 yuan / ton, up 5.56% from 4500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1); down 21.05% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and rose. The ex factory price in North China was about 4600-4800 yuan / ton, the price in East China was about 5000 yuan / ton, and the price in South China was about 5300 yuan / ton. The price rose, and the actual transaction price rose about 200 yuan / ton. The acetic anhydride manufacturer’s inventory is low, Yankuang’s acetic anhydride inventory is low, and the shipment is difficult. Hualu Hengsheng’s acetic anhydride inventory is low, and the normal shipment, the acetic anhydride supply is insufficient, and the downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm increases. The market of acetic anhydride is good, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride is increasing.

Industry chain factor analysis:

As can be seen from the figure, the price of acetic acid rose this week. After the festival, the price of acetic acid rose sharply. The cost of acetic anhydride rose. The driving force of acetic anhydride rose. The market of acetic anhydride was good, and the price of acetic anhydride rose.

It can be seen from the figure that the methanol price rose this week, continuing the trend after the festival, the price rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the power of acetic anhydride rose increased, and the price of acetic anhydride rose, which is good for the future market of acetic anhydride.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the price of acetic acid and methanol, the raw materials of acetic anhydride, rose sharply this week, continuing the rising trend of the price of acetic acid and methanol after new year’s day. The cost of acetic anhydride rose sharply, the market of acetic anhydride was good, and the price of acetic anhydride rose; the stock of acetic anhydride manufacturers was low, the shipment was difficult, the supply of acetic anhydride was insufficient, and the rising power of acetic anhydride market increased; the Spring Festival was coming, the next tourists Customers are hard to prepare goods, logistics and transportation are difficult, purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers of acetic anhydride is rising, supply of acetic anhydride is insufficient, demand is rising, and acetic anhydride market is good. On the whole, the power of acetic anhydride rising in the future is increased, and it is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will rise in the future.

Magnesium market trend

 
The Spring Festival is coming, and magnesium ingots are expected to have a smooth spring festival. According to the data of the business agency, the average market price of domestic magnesium ingots on January 17, 2020 is 14083.33 yuan / ton, and the recent price is relatively stable.

On January 17, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas remained stable. The specific price range is as follows:

The ex factory cash exchange including tax in fugu area is 138500-14100 yuan / ton; the cash exchange in Taiyuan area is 14000-14100 yuan / ton; the cash exchange in Wenxi area is 14050-14200 yuan / ton; the cash exchange in Ningxia area is 13900-14000 yuan / ton.

The Spring Festival is coming, and the trading is fading

Close to the Spring Festival, the trading tends to be weak, and the magnesium ingot market runs smoothly. It is reported that the magnesium ingot manufacturers’ pre-sale situation has occurred from time to time in the near future. The manufacturers’ low price pre-sale, after all, there is a rapid return of capital demand at the end of the year. At present, the downstream alloy manufacturers and magnesium powder manufacturers have completed their stock in succession years ago. The downstream raw material inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and there are not many magnesium ingot manufacturers in stock, so there is a balance between supply and demand.

Data review in 2019

Production end:

According to the preliminary statistical data of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, 763900 tons of original magnesium were produced by the Communist Party of China from January to November 2019, an increase of 11.16% year on year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi is 465900 tons, up 19.01% year on year; the cumulative production in Shanxi is 108500 tons, up 13.41% year on year; the cumulative production in Ningxia is 51500 tons, down 18.51% year on year.

According to relevant statistical data, it is estimated that the domestic original magnesium output in 2019 will be about 927700 tons.

Consumer end:

According to relevant statistics, the domestic consumption is 472300 tons. In terms of import and export, it is estimated that 446500 tons of various magnesium products will be exported. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, from January to November 2019, China exported 409300 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year increase of 9.29% and a cumulative amount of US $1.048 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.08%. Among them, the total export of magnesium ingot is 217900 tons, up 14.54% year on year; the total export of magnesium alloy is 100900 tons, down 0.61% year on year; the total export of magnesium powder is 77900 tons, up 6.88% year on year.

Forecast for future market

Supply and demand are in a stalemate, adding that the Spring Festival is coming, and trading tends to be weak. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will maintain stable operation in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be focused in the later stage.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Association)

2、 Market analysis:

On January 15, melamine market was temporarily stable. According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the mainstream price of melamine in the domestic market on the 15th was around 5200-5400 yuan / ton, the same as that on the 14th. In a half year cycle, it fell 3.78% year on year. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5400 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

On January 14, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, the same as that on January 13, down 36.20% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business agency, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the logistics is tight, and the downstream is going to have holidays one after another. The market exchange and investment atmosphere is gradually fading, and the enterprises are generally in the market. It is expected that the domestic melamine market will be stabilized temporarily in the short term.

1、 Melamine price trend:

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic melamine market this week was stable, flat compared with the beginning of the week (January 6), and the mainstream domestic melamine quotation on the 10th was 5200-5400 yuan / ton. In a three-month cycle, it fell 5.82% year-on-year. On January 10, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, the same as that on January 9, down 36.20% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the domestic melamine market is stable this week. At present, the operating rate of melamine enterprises has not changed much, and the supply side is fair. As the downstream factories continue to have holidays, the demand side is weak, and the enterprises mainly implement the early orders. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5400 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the factory price (1.6-1.10) of urea in Shandong Province in the upstream this week rose slightly, or 0.20%. The upstream liquid ammonia price (1.6-1.10) fell slightly, with a decline of 0.57%. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions, and it is not ruled out that the possibility of further exploration of low ammonia is possible.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the recent raw material urea prices rose slightly, the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly, and the impact on melamine is limited. At present, the market trading atmosphere is light, and there is no strong positive factor support. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market will be dominated by stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on January 13, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6575.00 yuan / ton. This week, pet market fluctuated in a narrow range.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: polyester bottle Market in East China narrow finishing. At present, the offer of mainstream manufacturers is around 6800-6850 yuan / ton, the market spot mainstream negotiation is around 6550-6650 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai’s latest offer is 6750 yuan / ton, China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. 6700 yuan / ton, Anyang polyester material factory 6700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: PTA Market of raw materials maintains consolidation, with general cost support. The offer of bottle chip manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the focus of market negotiation is low-end. Downstream cautious wait-and-see, market trading light.

On January 12, the pet commodity index was 50.38, flat with yesterday, down 51.45% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 5.53% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 
3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: in the short term, the focus of negotiation is low, and the main thing is to watch carefully.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on January 6 was 6850 yuan / ton, down 0.36% compared with the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on the weekend (10 days), up 5.41%%% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the PVC commodity index was 86.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.52% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 48.41% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week PVC market overall weak, prices fell slightly. In recent days, the U.S. – Iraq conflict has led to a narrow range of volatility in the futures market, and the spot market has begun to weaken in stability, and the heat has gradually subsided. With the close of the new year, the downstream factories are going to have holidays one after another. Before the new year, they were not actively hoarding goods and basically maintained their rigid needs. Facing the high price of PVC for a long time, the downstream products industry began to feel tired. At this stage, the social inventory has increased, the downstream demand is weak, there is pressure on businesses to ship, the actual trading is average, and the market is weak as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 10, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6600-6950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 6850-6950 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 6750-6950 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 6850-6920 yuan / ton. Prices around the country remained stable on the whole and fluctuated slightly.

Futures: in recent days, the U.S. – Iraq conflict has led to a narrow range of volatility in the futures market, with the main PVC v2005 contract surging higher, closing at 6620 yuan / ton, up from + 105 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume of 128599 hands, + 27528 hands; positions of 269917 hands, + 42080 hands, basis difference of 200 yuan, – 105 yuan; 5-9 price difference of 45 yuan, + 10 yuan.

Industry chain: disturbed by various news, although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists, and there is certain uncertainty in the direction of the situation. In the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, and ethylene market will rise. In terms of calcium carbide, after the adjustment in December, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the equipment maintenance was completed, and the production capacity increased. This week, the ex factory price of carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are four kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which PC (4.38%), cis-1.67% and natural rubber (0.55%) are the top three commodities. There are 6 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top 3 products falling were PP (- 0.86%), HDPE (- 0.85%) and NBR (- 0.82%). This week’s average was 0.16%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, the social inventory of PVC has increased, the downstream demand is weak, there is pressure on businesses to ship, and the focus of individual transactions has shifted down. With the approaching of the annual pass, downstream factories have been on holiday, and the demand side support is weak, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure in the short term.

On January 8, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On September 9, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started construction limited, and the market price trend rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton. Affected by the environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers have restarted. The demand for ammonium nitrate has increased, but the price of raw materials is at a low level, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is rising.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1600 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The low price of nitric acid has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of domestic liquid ammonia in the upper reaches has declined sharply, and enterprises restart the pace of reduction. Some prices in the northern region have declined, and most manufacturers’ quotations are flat. Some enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, have stabilized, and the prices in the northwest region have remained stable. At present, the local ammonia scale At present, it is abundant, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply of goods, and the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing gradually. However, the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable in price, and they are going to sell goods in succession. The main quotation in Shandong Province is 2850-2950 yuan / ton. In North China, the liquid ammonia is also stable, and the lack of demand leads to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia. After urea conversion, the ammonia quantity is controlled. The inventory pressure of the enterprise is slightly relieved. At present, there are many downriver stoppages, and the main quotation in North China is 2800 yuan / ton. The pressure of environmental protection in Hebei is still not to be underestimated, which leads to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, leads to weak demand in the downstream, more enterprises accumulating in the warehouse, and no significant change in price. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2800-2850 yuan / ton, and the price rise of ammonium nitrate Market is limited. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid keeps low in the near future, but the downstream demand has increased, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will rise slightly in the later stage.