According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of July 8, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8500 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8433 yuan/ton), the price increased by 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79%.

From the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, it can be seen that as July approaches, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region has seen an overall recovery, with market prices steadily rising and rising at low levels. As of July 8th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8400-8600 yuan/ton, with an increase of about 100-200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Analysis of factors influencing the market situation of n-butanol

In terms of demand: As we enter July, the downstream market demand for n-butanol is gradually releasing. Compared with the end of June, the overall performance of the downstream demand side for n-butanol has improved, providing stronger market support for the n-butanol market.

In terms of supply: Currently, the supply side of n-butanol is performing steadily, the market is operating steadily, and the overall pressure on the supply side is not high. Shipments are made on demand, and the support provided by the supply side for n-butanol is still acceptable.

Future analysis

At present, the trading temperature of n-butanol on the market is relatively smooth, and the transmission between supply and demand is relatively smooth. The downstream demand for n-butanol will continue to be slightly released. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the expected stable and positive operation of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region is mainly focused on, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of June 28th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4280 yuan/ton. In June, DMF prices were mainly weak, with an overall price drop of 6.96%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4300 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Enterprises mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the overall market negotiation focus is stable.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the overall market price of DMF was mainly weak with a narrow range, falling by 6.96% overall. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4300/ton. Manufacturers are actively shipping, logistics are smooth, and downstream demand is insufficient. At present, the cost side of DMF is slightly supported, and it will maintain stable, medium, and strong operation in the near future. Downstream enterprises need to purchase urgently.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain its current trend, with mainstream prices remaining at 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic BDO market did not fluctuate significantly in May. From May 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 9071 yuan/ton to 9028 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.47% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 20.10%.

After the holiday, the domestic BDO market has experienced a downward trend, and there have been few reports of spot negotiations. After the holiday, the market news is light, and there is a lack of significant positive news on both the supply and demand sides. Business owners have a bearish purchasing and sales mentality, dragging down small orders in the market.

In mid month, the domestic BDO market is weak and wait-and-see, with little talk about spot trading. Although there has been an increase in maintenance and replacement equipment, the supply side support has been strengthened, and the supplier is willing to maintain prices. However, the actual demand downstream of the terminal is average, and supply and demand pressure still exists.

In the latter half of the month, the domestic BDO market was weak and deadlocked, with few spot negotiations. The increase in device maintenance and agent replacement has led to a significant decline in industry capacity utilization, and there is a certain positive outlook on the supply side. The supplier has a stable market mentality. The overall downstream load has also declined, leading to a reduction in the digestion of raw materials.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic BDO market is operating weakly, with light spot and actual trading. There are no significant changes in the equipment, overall support is still acceptable, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. The actual performance of downstream demand in the terminal is average, and contract orders are maintained for follow-up. The supply and demand sides are in a tug of war, and the BDO market is weak and deadlocked.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, the overall construction of the BDO industry has increased, and the supply side support is currently average. However, some devices have released maintenance news in late April and early May, leading to an expected decrease in market supply in the later period; And currently, the industry’s profits are meager or even at a loss, and the supplier’s price mentality continues. The supply side of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be weak, with an increase in supply and a certain accumulation of inventory in production enterprises. Downstream centralized maintenance has led to a decrease in demand. In terms of methanol, the price increase caused by the tight supply of goods at the port is gradually being digested, market supply is increasing, downstream receiving sentiment is average, and rigid demand procurement is the main focus. The cost side of BDO is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, due to poor demand follow-up or maintenance of storage equipment, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, PU slurry have reduced production, resulting in a decrease in raw material digestion. At the same time, the main downstream industries such as PTMEG spandex industry chain, PBT, PBAT, TPU, etc. saw a decline in market prices, leading to an increase in cautious bearish sentiment on the market. However, given the current low market prices, there is limited room for profit margins; Moreover, downstream spot procurement intentions are not strong, and holding companies are delivering more contract orders. The overall market situation is weak and stagnant, and major players continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in supply and demand. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

According to future predictions, as maintenance equipment is gradually restarted, the supply of goods in the market will increase, and the support from the supply side will weaken. As the PTMEG device restarts and new production capacity is put into operation downstream, the amount of raw material digestion also increases. But supply and demand pressures still exist. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ethanol market in May first rose and then fell. From May 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers first increased from 6012 yuan/ton and then dropped to 5987 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.42% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 1.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market rebounded slightly, and it was difficult to find logistics vehicles before the holiday, resulting in an increase in shipping costs. Some factories have raised their prices and shown a strong willingness to ship. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market saw a narrow rise with slight regional differences. Individual factories have seen significant price increases, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a decrease in supply, providing support for the mentality of all parties. However, considering the weak demand and weak enthusiasm for receiving new orders, downstream companies continue to be cautious. In the latter half of the month, the domestic ethanol market rebounded, with some regions pulling up in the early stage. However, the actual signing of orders was not ideal, and demand was not smooth in following orders, putting pressure on high priced transactions. With the increase of market inventory, the ethanol market has returned to a weak position.

On the cost side, with the support of enterprise price hikes and replenishment, there is still some room for price recovery in the domestic corn market. Overall, the supply and demand of the domestic corn market remain stable in the short term, with imported corn and its substitutes arriving in ports one after another. Downstream demand for corn continues to be weak, and the price of new season wheat in Linchi is opening low and closing low, playing a long short game. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. All Jixian devices have been shut down, and after merging, they will be replaced for maintenance; The extended Yushen device has officially entered shutdown; Anhui Carbon Xin restarted on May 20th. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu continues to be weak, with limited efforts to boost the market; The market for chemical ethyl ester procurement is smooth, with a focus on price reduction procurement; Methyl ethyl ester production is stable with little fluctuation. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.

In the future, it is predicted that at present, the cost side and the supply side are supported by favorable factors, Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good, and the receiving price has declined month on month. Ethanol analysts from the Supply and Demand Game Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.

The demand is weak and the supply is tight. In May, the mixed xylene market first fell and then fluctuated slightly upwards. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7770 yuan/ton on May 31, an increase of 1.17% from 7680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 4.16% from the low point of 7460 yuan/ton in the cycle.

International crude oil price range fluctuations have weak support for mixed xylene

The international crude oil price range fluctuated in May, with weak support for mixed xylene. As of May 31st, the closing price of WTI07 contract is 76.99 US dollars per barrel; The Brent 08 contract closed at $81.11 per barrel. The narrow consolidation of mixed xylene prices in Asia in May provided support for the domestic market. As of May 30th, the price of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia was between 953-954 US dollars per ton.

The production of xylene is gradually decreasing, and the demand support for mixed xylene is weakening

In early May, due to the restart of the early maintenance equipment, the overall production of xylene rebounded to around 7.9%; Starting from mid May, PX units such as Weilian Chemical, Fuhai Chuang, and Hengli Petrochemical began to shut down for maintenance. Domestic PX production gradually decreased to around 740% at the end of the month. In May, the price of PX in Asian foreign markets rose significantly, providing strong support for the domestic PX market. As of May 30th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1032-1034 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1057-1059 US dollars/ton CFR China

The production of phthalic anhydride is basically stable, and the demand support for mixed xylene is weak

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to be shipped normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Recently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The production situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In May, the price of industrial naphthalene rose, and the market for naphthalene phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride to rise.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed production and weak support for mixed xylene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of the end of May, the construction of refineries nationwide was around 7.0.

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports continues to decrease, and the pressure on port inventory has slightly eased

The inventory of mixed xylene at the port has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level, and there is still pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene. It is understood that as of May 30th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 46500 tons, a significant decrease from the end of April.

The pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene for multiple device maintenance is not high

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th and restarted in late May. There is still a plan for device maintenance in the later stage, and overall, the pressure on the xylene supply side is not high in the later stage, which provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: In the short term, the international crude oil range will consolidate, and the cost support for mixed xylene will weaken; The decline in downstream PX production has weakened support for mixed xylene. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage in China, and there is not much pressure on the supply of mixed xylene. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will be sorted out in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market maintained a downward trend in May. As of May 31, the price of 40D spandex was 28875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from the beginning of the month. The cost side support is still acceptable, but the downstream market situation is weak, and the supply-demand contradiction of spandex is strong, which is negative for the spandex market.

In the raw material market, the actual negotiated price for domestically produced 1800 molecular weight PTMEG dispersion in the spandex field is 14500-15500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In terms of equipment, the overall operating rate of the domestic PTMEG industry is around 69%. The domestic pure MDI market prices have risen, with a tightening of spot supply, coupled with a concentration of maintenance equipment, the price center has risen, and there has been an increase in some intention to close down. As of the end of May, the mainstream offer for Shanghai goods in the pure MDI market in the East China region was 18600-18800 yuan/ton.

The weaving market has a clear off-season atmosphere, with inventory still at a relatively high level, and there is still pressure from spandex factories to ship. The terminal weaving enterprises have reduced prices and promoted products in order to recover funds, but their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high, and the operating rate has also slightly declined. Currently, the weaving industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is operating at around 71%. At the same time, due to factors such as rising shipping costs, tight containers, and longer debt cycles in foreign trade, manufacturers have become more cautious in accepting orders and downstream orders, which has caused a certain drag on demand.

Analysts from Business Society believe that a favorable cost outlook will support spandex prices, but June August is the off-season for the terminal textile industry, and demand will further weaken. Under the stalemate between upstream and downstream, the spandex market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and it is expected that spandex prices will operate weakly and steadily in June.

In May 2024, downstream demand performed well, and the raw material caprolactam was relatively strong. The nylon filament market continued to rise in price with the raw material. The operating rate of the nylon filament industry is at a high level, and there is little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and the inventory pressure is not significant. Downstream manufacturers are multidimensional and steadily purchasing according to demand, and overall demand is still acceptable. Overall, the cost side continues to rise strongly, with little change in on-site supply and stable terminal demand.

Market prices continue to rise

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, in May 2024, the price of nylon filament rose along with the wide range of raw materials. As of May 30, 2024, the price of DTY nylon filament (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region was quoted at 19480 yuan/ton, an increase of 640 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.40%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 17225 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.24%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 20500 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.89%.

Continuous strong operation of raw materials

In May 2024, the market for caprolactam, a raw material for nylon filament, was relatively strong, with prices continuing to rise, with a monthly increase of 6.26%. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support; In May, the export volume of caprolactam increased, downstream demand remained stable, demand for raw materials improved, and terminal demand increased. Some companies are planning maintenance for their caprolactam units, leading to a tightening of market supply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam on May 30th was 13602 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 12825 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 6.26%. The combination of cost support and good terminal demand has led to a concentration of favorable factors, driving up the price of caprolactam. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will slightly increase in June, but the subsequent upward trend may slow down.

Supply and demand

In May 2024, nylon manufacturers maintained a stable operating load, with sufficient supply of goods and little inventory pressure. Entering May, downstream demand is gradually increasing, and downstream manufacturers are holding steady purchases according to demand. The demand for nylon spinning remains stable, and the recovery of domestic demand for nylon filament is relatively optimistic.

Future Market Forecast

The spot market for raw material caprolactam is relatively strong, with acceptable cost support. On site supply remains normal, and downstream demand is stable. Business Society analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the stable preference of raw materials, and prices will continue to follow the upward trend of raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, sodium hypophosphate has been running smoothly this month. As of May 28th, the mainstream price of sodium hypophosphate (2123, 99% content) in China was 14733.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as last month. The mainstream price of sodium hypophosphate (2123102% content) is 20533.33 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the previous month.

2、 Market analysis

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that the domestic sodium hypophosphate market has been operating steadily since May. The news on the sodium hypophosphate market has remained calm, and there has been little overall change in the supply and demand sides. At present, the supply side of sodium hypophosphate is operating steadily, and downstream demand continues to be dominated by rigid procurement. As of May 28th, the domestic market price of sodium hypophosphate (domestic, 99% content) is referenced around 11500-16000 yuan/ton, the domestic market price of sodium hypophosphate (domestic, 102% content) is referenced around 18600-23800 yuan/ton, and the domestic market price of sodium hypophosphate (Jinhua, premium grade) is referenced around 18000-29500 yuan/ton

Cost side:

The market price of yellow phosphorus fell in May. On May 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 23593.33 yuan/ton, and on May 28th, the average price was 22626.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 4.1% during the month. The overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is average. In the first half of the year, the domestic yellow phosphorus market was light, while in the second half, the price of yellow phosphorus fluctuated. High end prices will be lowered, while low-end prices will be adjusted. Overall procurement remains relatively cautious.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In May, the overall price of yellow phosphorus fell, and the expected cost changes constrained the price trend. At present, the atmosphere of negotiations on sodium hypophosphate in the market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is still acceptable. Downstream demand and sales are still mainly based on rigid demand for stocking and procurement. According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society, in the short term, the domestic sodium hypophosphate market will mostly operate steadily, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market has been experiencing strong fluctuations recently, with prices of various wire drawing brands generally increasing. As of May 28th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7950 yuan/ton, up or down by 1.37% from the price level on May 1st.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the high international crude oil prices still provide support for the PP market. The price of propylene fluctuates and consolidates. Domestic port inventories of propane have decreased, with prices slightly rising. Overall, the cost support for PP in the near future is still acceptable.

Overall, the raw material market is strong, providing strong support for the cost side of PP. In terms of industry load, there has been significant stability and small fluctuations, with an average load of around 72% in the near future. The inventory of production enterprises remains basically unchanged, with limited changes in supply pressure. There may be a partial return to production capacity in the later stage, which may cause a certain degree of supply increase. The strong macroeconomic expectations in the market have to some extent pushed up spot prices, but the load on end enterprises has generally remained stable. Downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding have a comprehensive operating rate of about 42%, 65%, and 57% at the end of the month, respectively. The demand is limited, and enterprise replenishment operations are mainly based on basic needs, resulting in a moderate trading atmosphere.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 28th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has fluctuated and increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7762.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.49% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen significant and stable loads, with an average operating rate of around 29%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and the upward trend is mainly driven by macro expectations. It is expected that the future market of fiber materials may still be constrained by weak demand and weak operation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has remained stable with an increase this week. As of May 28th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8075 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.47%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.22%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. It is expected that the digestion speed of terminal products in the future market will be slow, and melt blown materials may weaken due to the drag of demand.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been generally strong and volatile in recent times. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is relatively strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. Although there are expectations of an increase in the supply of goods, the current supply pressure is temporarily easing. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is essential to maintain production. The current strong macro weak reality on the market is expected to gradually enter the off-season market in the future, The PP market may stagnate and weaken.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices were relatively strong last week. As of May 27th, the mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of 25 μ m CPP film is around 10183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.4% compared to the beginning of the month and about 0.33% compared to the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP first rose and then fell last week. The mainstream quoted price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) was around 7907.14 yuan/ton, which is 0.82% higher than the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP first rose and then fell, but it is still at a high level, and the cost side has a certain boost to CPP prices. In terms of supply: the membrane enterprise has sufficient inventory and still has surplus, and the pressure on the supply side is still there. In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises are cautious in their inquiries, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. There is a certain supply-demand contradiction in the market.

Future Market Forecast

Cost side spot futures have all risen, providing some support for downstream CPP. However, overall market demand is weak, and the release of inventory is limited. It is expected that CPP film prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.