Aluminum prices fluctuated strongly in June

Aluminum prices were relatively strong in June. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20786.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the market average price of 20303.33 yuan/ton on June 1.
The overseas aluminum prices remained firm in June, which is an important support for the upward trend of domestic aluminum prices. At present, aluminum prices maintain a strong external and weak internal pattern, and the domestic import window is relatively closed. The main trading macro factors in the market have relatively weakened the influence of fundamental factors.
There is a high probability of horizontal fluctuations in aluminum prices in July
From a fundamental perspective, currently in the off-season of traditional consumption in China, domestic demand is relatively weak, and aluminum prices are relatively high, resulting in insufficient downstream purchasing and receiving enthusiasm; On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is unlikely to decrease during the southwest rainy season, but the probability of maintaining a weekly output of 844000 tons is relatively high, and the supply is relatively stable. From a cost perspective, the stabilization of raw material alumina has led to short-term strength, which may provide relative support for aluminum prices in the near future. Low level sideways trend in social inventory: Currently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low and in a sideways trend this week. As of June 30th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 462000 tons, a decrease of 46000 tons from June 5th.
Macro variables in July
1. Changes in Federal Reserve policies and the implementation of equivalent tariffs in the United States.
2. Geopolitical factors, Middle East direction, and dynamic changes in the Russia Ukraine situation.
Future expectations

In summary, the market trading logic tends to be macro oriented, and may return to fundamental considerations in the later stage. Currently, social inventory is low and sideways, and with off-season demand, the upward space for aluminum prices has narrowed, and the probability of sideways fluctuations has increased. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate around 20000 yuan in July.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from June 16 to June 23, 2025. On June 16th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6010 yuan/ton, and on June 23rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 6170 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66%. This week, the toluene market fluctuated and rose, international crude oil fluctuated and rose, and the toluene market followed suit with a significant increase. The supply in Shandong region is tight this week, and refinery quotations have generally been raised. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and trading is still acceptable. The market atmosphere in the East and South China regions is good this week, with downstream purchases made according to demand, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is still acceptable.

On the cost side, the overall crude oil market price closed higher, with the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $74.93 per barrel as of June 20th. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August contract is $77.01 per barrel. On the one hand, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to a tight supply of crude oil and a significant rise in the international oil market; On the other hand, the trade negotiations between China and the United States have made good progress, and coupled with the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, favorable factors have supported the international oil market, with the crude oil market mainly rising.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of June 23rd, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6200-6250 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On June 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7000 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. Compared to June 16th, it remains unchanged. As of June 20th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 873-875 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 898-900 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 44 US dollars/ton from June 13th.
Market forecast: The overall macro trend is relatively strong in the near future, with a significant increase in crude oil prices and an overall strengthening of fundamentals. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side has been relatively loose recently, and downstream demand is more rigid. The impact of supply and demand on the toluene market is relatively small in the near future, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue to maintain a stable, medium, and strong trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 877 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 857 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28% and a year-on-year increase of 7.66%. On June 19th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 787 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and up 31.61% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 780-890 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 930-970 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). During the week, the liquid alkali market in Shandong remained stable with small fluctuations, and there were no significant fluctuations in the supply side of the Shandong region. Alumina was mostly purchased on demand, and non aluminum deliveries were noticeably cautious. The main downstream purchasing prices were lowered, and there was no positive support for caustic soda prices.
Business Society analysts believe that the recent weak operation of caustic soda prices is supported by moderate downstream demand in China, which supports the consolidation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a consolidation operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose this week, with the overall price mainly declining. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6258.34 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6108.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.4%.
This week, the market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose, with the overall price mainly declining. The overall market situation of isopropanol is average, with good shipments from major factories in Shandong over the weekend and a slight increase in prices. The market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the mentality of industry players has been slightly boosted. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5950-6150 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu are around 6150-6200 yuan/ton.
Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price first fell and then rose this week, and the market stopped falling and rebounded. The prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have both rebounded, and cost support is still acceptable. It is expected that there will be limited volatility in the isopropanol market in the short term, with buying driven by strong demand. Pay more attention to changes in the raw material market.

The market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride remained stable this week. The mainstream ex factory price including tax is about 10700-10850 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 650 yuan/ton from last month. The price of raw material fluorite has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants is average. The focus of negotiations in the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is gradually shifting downwards, and it is expected that the market will mainly operate steadily and weakly in the later stage. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 13th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -6.31% from the beginning of this month.

On the raw material side, domestic fluorite prices have fallen this week, sulfuric acid prices have temporarily stabilized, and the cost side support of the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is weak. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 12th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3406.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the beginning of this month (3493.75 yuan/ton).
Demand side: The downstream refrigerant terminal demand is generally average, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the market still has a mentality of buying and lowering prices.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite will decline, and the demand for downstream refrigerants will be average. It is expected that the market for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will remain stable and weak in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly increased this week. From June 2 to June 9, 2025, the price of mixed xylene has decreased from 5750 yuan/ton to 5840 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57%. There are slight differences in the trend of various regions this cycle, with a slight downward adjustment in Shandong region and a slight upward adjustment in other regions, and the overall fluctuation range is limited. The Shandong region first rose and then fell during the week, with inquiries from downstream oil and chemical industries entering the market. Local refineries had good inquiries and shipments were relatively stable. The increase in quotes from major refineries in South China this week has led to an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market, resulting in a slight increase in market prices. The transaction situation in East China is good, with overall inventory declining and spot market prices slightly rising.

Cost wise: The crude oil market has fluctuated upward in this cycle. As of June 6th, the settlement price of the July contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $64.58 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August contract is $66.47 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of June 9th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5600-5750 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5750-5800 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5650-5800 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On June 9th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7000 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. An increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to May 30th. As of June 6th, the closing prices of the para xylene market in Asia were 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 818-820 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to rise slightly, with some support for the cost of xylene. The recent sales situation of the supply room in the refinery is still good, overall stable. The demand side has been relatively rigid in recent times. There is no significant news impact on the supply and demand side, and it is expected that the xylene market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 885 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.74% compared to last year. On June 5th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 788 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 31.77% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 840-930 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 930-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2750-2850 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). During the week, the liquid alkali market in Shandong remained stable with small fluctuations. Alumina was mostly purchased on demand, while non aluminum deliveries slowed down significantly. The overall low alcohol alkali market was dominated by early order shipments, with no positive support for caustic soda prices.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable, and the domestic downstream demand has been average, supporting the consolidation of caustic soda prices. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has been stable recently. As of June 3, the benchmark price of 85% formic acid for industrial grade in China was 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from before the holiday.

Demand side: Downstream on-demand procurement, overall demand is relatively stable, merchant spot prices follow the market, and actual transactions are mainly stable.
In terms of cost: Upstream soda ash prices fluctuate, while soda ash prices in North China remain stable. The mainstream market price for light soda ash is around 1350-1500 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for heavy soda ash is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Supply side equipment maintenance, low capacity utilization, weak downstream market conditions, urgent need to follow up on market entry, and weak market trading atmosphere.
Weak operation of raw material methanol: From May 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2440 yuan/ton to 2245 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.99% during the period and a maximum amplitude of 10.96%. The price fell by 19.82% year-on-year.
The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that due to weak demand and supply, formic acid has no immediate action force and is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic BDO market has rebounded. From May 1st to 30th, the price of BDO increased from 7950 yuan/ton to 8107 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.98% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%.

In the first half of the month, the industry’s capacity utilization rate increased, and the positive support from the supply side weakened, leading to an increase in cautious bearish sentiment among industry players. However, the overall downstream demand follow-up is still acceptable, and under cost pressure, the supply side is stabilizing the market, resulting in a stalemate in the BDO market center of gravity.
In mid month, with the restart of some facilities, the industry’s capacity utilization rate increased, and supply side support weakened, exacerbating the wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Downstream urgent orders are being followed up, and the transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, suppressing the trend of pressure. Supply and demand negotiation game, BDO market situation is operating in a wait-and-see manner.
At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market remained stable with a narrow upward trend. Partial device maintenance, reduced industry capacity utilization, and increased supply side support. Manufacturers actively support the market by implementing a policy of reducing sales. Downstream follow-up on demand, trading on the high end of spot small orders, and narrow upward exploration of market focus.
Supply side: The market supply of goods has decreased. At the same time, some devices released maintenance news in mid to late June, and the online auction premium reached a high position of 8200 yuan/ton. The supplier’s June cycle policy contraction is gradually being implemented, and there is a strong intention to actively support the market, limiting market space. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the sudden increase in supply has become the main factor causing the decline in carbide prices. The domestic methanol market is running weakly. As of 10:00 am on May 30th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2240 yuan/ton. The weak prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have been consolidated, and the cost of BDO has been affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG and PBT have seen an increase in production, leading to an increase in raw material digestion and a cautious and positive attitude towards procurement and sales among industry players. Traders have increased the cost of holding goods and are concerned about settlement losses at the end of the month, with mainstream offers leaning towards the mid to high end. Downstream contract orders are being followed up, and the focus of spot small order transactions has shifted upwards. But with the rise in raw material prices, the profit margins of downstream industries have been compressed, and the bargaining sentiment for entering the market has increased. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.
In the future, with a slight increase in supply in the BDO market and an increase in consumption on the demand side due to the restart of maintenance equipment, prices are expected to continue to rise. However, considering that the downstream has not yet followed the rise in raw material prices, the cost pressure has increased, and the ability to accept high raw material prices is limited, which will limit the increase in raw material prices. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly recover and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will decline in May 2025, with an average price of 16790 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.88%.

On May 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 100.27, a decrease of 1.18 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.18% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and an increase of 34.36% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
At the beginning of May, due to fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment, lead prices showed a weak start. Afterwards, it gradually stabilized and rebounded in the middle of the month, with fluctuations. A significant pullback at the end of the month broke through the recent low prices.
supply end
At the beginning of the month, the output of primary lead smelting enterprises remained stable, and there was no significant reduction in the overall supply of the lead market.
In the middle of the month, the field of native lead was somewhat impacted. Due to the promotion of environmental inspections and safety production rectification work in some lead mining areas, mining activities have been restricted, which directly leads to a tight supply of lead concentrate. As a result, some primary lead smelting enterprises have had to reduce their production load due to insufficient raw material supply, leading to a significant slowdown in the supply growth rate of the primary lead market. At the same time, the overall growth rate of recycled lead production is relatively limited, making it difficult to fill the rapidly growing demand gap in the market. In this context, lead prices have fluctuated and gradually rebounded.
By the end of the month, although the supply side showed a contraction trend, the weak performance on the demand side was more prominent. The contraction of the supply side’s support for lead prices is difficult to effectively manifest, and the overall supply pattern of the market is still in a loose state, resulting in a pullback in lead prices.
demand side
At present, it is the off-season for lead consumption, and the demand situation of downstream lead-acid battery enterprises is relatively weak. The number of new orders in the terminal market continues to be low, and the operational enthusiasm of production enterprises is generally not high. After resuming production, some enterprises did not reach full capacity and instead arranged production plans based on sales, maintaining a “sales based production” business model. The procurement of raw materials only met basic production needs and adopted a rigid procurement strategy.
Prediction of future trends
It is expected that lead prices will exhibit a volatile trend in the future. From the supply side, the scale of production reduction for recycled lead is gradually expanding due to the tight supply of raw materials; At the same time, some refineries in the primary lead field are undergoing maintenance, which to some extent provides support for lead prices. However, the demand side is currently in the off-season, and battery companies are cautious in their procurement attitudes. Additionally, there is significant pressure from inventory backlog, which in turn puts downward pressure on lead prices.