According to the company’s commodity market analysis system: the domestic mixed diphenyl market in 2025 the average price at the beginning of the year is 6110 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the year is 5510 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 9.82%. The overall trend of mixed diphenyl market in 2025 is weak, basically divided into two stages, the first half of the year is stagnant and the second half is continuously falling back.
From the point of view of the K-chart of the mixed diphenyl month, the mixed diphenyl market will fall more and less in 2025, five months in the upward month and seven months in the downward month, with the highest increase of 9.17% in January and the highest drop of 12.21% in April.

A review of the mixed diphenyl benzene market in 2025
First Half: Supply and Demand Game, Interval Shock Up 0.16%
Cost side: crude oil, petroleum shock drag
Crude oil: In the first half of the year, international crude oil showed a “surge and fall” trend, Brent crude oil rose to $83/barrel at the beginning of the year due to U.S. energy sanctions against Russia, and fell to about $73/barrel in June due to global oversupply expectations.
Petroleum: Domestic petroleum supply was stable in the first half of the year. Business Association data show that in January-June, domestic petroleum production accumulated 37.8 million tons, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year, Shandong and Guangdong main production areas maintained the start-up rate of 75% -80%; April with crude oil fell to 6550 yuan / ton low, May-June with crude oil rebounded to 7100 yuan / ton, raw material cost fluctuations were directly transmitted to the mixed diphenyl market, driving its price synchronous shock.
Supply side: Domestic production capacity is not released as expected supply first tighten and then loosen
In 2025, it was originally planned to add 4,563,000 tons of mixed diphenyl production capacity, but due to the narrowing of the triphenyl price gap and the decline in production profits, the new unit was put into production more postponed. According to statistics, as of the end of June, only Zhenhai Refinery 360,000 tons, Wanhua Group 30,000 tons of units were put into production, the industry average start-up rate of 68% -72%, China Petrochemical and China Petroleum main refinery export sales remained low, and the monthly export sales accounted for less than 30% in May.
Demand side: PX and oil mixing demand alternately pull overall weakness
PX is the first consumption area of mixed diphenyl (accounting for 62%), the first half of the year demand is “weak and strong”. January-April MX-PX spread narrowed to 300 yuan / ton, PX enterprise extraction activity is low; May spread expanded to 800-900 yuan / ton, short process production profitability repair, Shenghong petrochemical and other enterprises increased monthly extraction of more than 120,000 tons, driving mixed diphenyl turnover increased by 40%, the spot market was boosted by a marked increase in prices.
Mixing demand accounted for 28%, weak performance in the first half of January-June domestic gasoline exports decreased by 12.89% year-on-year, only in March and May due to the rebound in oil prices and the easing of trade between China and the United States, there was a gradual recovery; the penetration rate of superimposed new energy vehicles increased to 38%, the proportion of mixed diphenyl mixing oil was reduced from 15% to 12%, and the consumption in the field of mixing oil increased by only 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, which has a limited effect on the market.

Second half: Supply and demand fell to three-year low
According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, the domestic mixed diphenyl market in July-December 2025 will show a “shock downward, slight rebound at the end of the year” trend, and the market’s gravity will shift significantly from 2024 throughout the year.
Cost side: crude oil low shock, petroleum support weakened
Crude oil: International crude oil continued to be weak in the second half of the year, in July-September due to the weak global economic recovery, OPEC + production cuts were not implemented as expected, Brent crude oil fell from $ 66 / barrel to a low of $ 58 / barrel in September; in October, although the Middle East geo-tensions rebounded to $ 72 / barrel, but the surplus supply is expected to resume in November-December, and fell to close to $ 60 / barrel at the end of the year, and the cost side of mixed diphenyl support continues to weaken.
Petroleum: Domestic petroleum supply was stable in the second half of the year. Supply was abundant to suppress prices, the average price of petroleum in the second half of the year fell by 6.9% compared to the first half, and crude oil rebounded slightly to 6,600 yuan / ton in December, but the overall cost support for mixed diphthalene was limited.
Supply side: Release of new capacity
In the second half of the year, the domestic mixed diphenyl supply pattern reversed. Before July, the market continued its partial tightness in the first half, and Yulong Petrochemical Phase II plant went into production in August (about 1.2 million tons / year). With the release of new equipment in Ningbo, Yantai and other places, the total domestic production capacity exceeded 15 million tons per year, and the industry’s start-up rate rose from 72% to 78%. On the import side, the third quarter import window continued to open, and the monthly import volume increased by 15%, and the inventory of the East China port climbed from 300,000 tons to a high level of 420,000 tons. Although the partial refinery overhaul after October, the start-up rate fell to 62%, but under the new capacity domination, the supply in the second half of the year still increased by 8.5%, and the market shifted from tight balance to relaxation.
Demand side: PX support is limited
In the second half of the year, the MX-PX spread narrowed from 800 yuan / ton to 500 yuan / ton, and PX enterprises’ export activity decreased. Although the PX plant was slightly replenished in the fourth quarter due to the cost recovery, there was no new PX production capacity throughout the year, and the demand for mixed diphenyl increased by only 3.2%, which is weaker than in the first half.
Mixing: In the second half of the year, the demand fell by 1.5% year-on-year due to the improvement in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the upgrading of gasoline quality (the proportion of mixed diphenyl mixed from 12% to 11%).
Mixed Diphenyl Market Outlook for 2026:
Cost side: 2026 oil price low shock weak cost side support

While the supply-side surplus pattern will continue into the first half of 2026, the IEA forecasts an average global oil surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day, with U.S. shale oil expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to suspend production in the first quarter of 2026, but internal differences and insufficient idle capacity have led to limited regulatory effects, and the price center is likely to continue to move down. As well as the impact of OPEC+ policy regulation, the business agency predicts that the crude oil market as a whole will show a “low shock” trend in 2026.
Raw materials: steady growth in petroleum production, adequate supply of raw materials
With the continuous improvement of China’s refining capacity and the continuous release of downstream market demand for petroleum, China’s petroleum production continues to grow steadily. Data show that China’s petroleum production in January-November 2025 is about 73.95 million tons. The main production areas of domestic petroleum are Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning, Zhejiang and other provinces, with Shandong Province accounting for about 35%. Provides important raw material security.
Domestic petroleum production is expected to grow slightly in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of about 0.6% to 1%, which will lay a solid foundation for the supply of toluene.
Supply: expected increase
In 2026, the pace of expansion of domestic mixed diphenyl production capacity accelerated, Hengli Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining, Huajin Arami and other leading enterprises’ refining integrated supporting aromatic hydrocarbons units, concentrated in the second half of the year 26, mainly concentrated in Bohai and East China, the two regions jointly contributed more than 70% of the new production capacity. According to statistics, by the end of 2025, the total domestic mixed diphenyl production capacity has reached 15 million tons / year, and the capacity scale in 2026 will break through 16.6 million tons / year, an increase of 10% year-on-year.
Demand: Stable and rising
Domestic mixed diphenyl demand in 2026 will show a pattern of “steady growth in the core area, compression in the traditional area, replacement in the emerging area”, the overall demand growth rate will moderately increase compared to 2025, the expansion of PX industry and emerging applications will become the core driving force, and the demand for oil mixing and traditional solvents will continue to be weak.
PX field: PX demand will grow steadily in 2026, the company’s data show that in 2026, domestic PX is expected to add 3.6 million tons of new production capacity, focusing on the second half of production, the annual capacity growth rate of 6%, the corresponding mixed diphenyl demand will increase to 8.8 million tons, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year.

Mixing field: Mixing demand is still facing multiple suppression in 2026. With the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to rise to 45%, the growth rate of domestic gasoline consumption slowed to 1.5%, and the proportion of mixed diphenyl in mixing is further reduced to 11%.
Solvents and other areas: Solvents will remain stable but structurally differentiated in 2026. Due to the tightening of VOC emissions control, the growth rate of demand for conventional mixed diphenyl in the field of traditional coatings and pesticides continues to slow down. However, high-purity mixed diphenyl (purity above 99.8%) Due to the environmental advantages, the proportion of applications in high-end coatings and environmentally friendly solvents has increased to 20%, and the price is 15%-20% higher than conventional products. In addition, the demand for new energy battery solvents, pharmaceutical intermediates and other emerging fields has grown rapidly, and the average annual growth rate is expected to reach 7%, becoming an important supplement to the demand for solvents.
Future Market Forecast:
In the short term: the supply side of the domestic new production capacity has not been released, the industry start-up rate is maintained at 75% -80%, the low inventory level in the East China port supports the price; in the import side, the Asia-American arbitrage window is gradually opened, the import volume or slight growth, but it is difficult to change the supply and demand balance pattern. Unilateral market conditions are difficult, and the spot market is expected to be dominated by range shocks, with price fluctuations ranging from 5500 to 5700 yuan / ton.
In the long term: Hengli, Shenghong and other new production capacity will be concentrated in the second half of 2016, but the environmental protection policy will strengthen to push some small and medium-sized production capacity out, to compensate for the supply pressure. On the demand side, the release of PX new production capacity led to mixed diphenyl demand to grow by 7.6% year-on-year, becoming the core driving force; the proportion of high-purity mixed diphenyl in the high-end solvent field is increasing, and the emerging demand is weak in the traditional field. degree, crude oil price trends and environmental policy enforcement efforts.